belboid
Exasperated, not angry.
"the rightwing Bow Group think-tank estimated the average age of a Conservative member is 72."
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Jeremy Corbyn's time is up
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ViolentPanda
Hardly getting over it.
I reckon that even if donations don't increase, they'll be subject to the law of diminishing returns, as the Tories have to spend more and more on PR, eroding their "war chest" to the degree that it becomes near-worthless.
ViolentPanda
Hardly getting over it.
That'd be the speech he actually starts with "my fellow Americans", wouldn't it?
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
ViolentPanda
Hardly getting over it.
Or a party so saturated in the concept of post-modern irony that they'd think that Mogg was one of theirs.
So, the RCP basically.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
chilango
Hypothetical Wanker
Maybe worth it's own thread?
I dunno. Maybe my view is coloured by my time in Italy and the death of the parties there - which was at the very least accelerated by local factors.
But isn't the story at the moment the decline of the social democrats, christian democrats and the post-CP left? and the "rise of the populists"?
Rob Ray
Weight is meaningless
Common sense alone suggests that 72 is absurdly high, it would need a whacking number of politically active octo and nonagenarians. The average age in Britain as a whole is 40. Fullfact's done a useful rundown on it suggesting 57, based on work by Yougov, which sounds far more plausible.
Yeah that's what I found when googling to double check.
If it is only late 50s, then I stand corrected, a party with an average age of 57 is a different beast to one with an average age of 72.
If true, that detail makes a difference to my argument, but I'm not convinced with the arguments that "people said that before but..." though. Just because the boy cried wolf doesn't mean the wolf never came. (There must be a name for this logical fallacy. )And I'm not saying it is inevitable, I'm saying it is heading that way if they don't fix the housing problem, or reinvent themselves some way, and at the moment they are lacking visionary and competent leadership.
ViolentPanda
Hardly getting over it.
TBF, I thought that the Tory Party per se, in terms of holding onto a scrap of their original ideology, died some time in the '80s, under the weight of the Friedmanites.
And anecdotally, my maternal grandparents are Tory Party members well into their mid 80s, and I recently found out that they were basically begged to stand for some unwinnable council seats because there are so few local members. (I live around Tyneside way, so perhaps on the extreme end of Tory shortage, but it does still give some indication of the problems they are facing.) And my grandparents are not in good enough health to be councillors, so they are just stood in some unwinnable seats to make up numbers. If you think that in England, Scotland and Wales, there are about 5,000 seats, and there are probably around 100,000 Tory members - you need 1 in 20 members to be willing to stand, and in regions of low density Toryism like Tyneside, Glasgow, Merseyside, South Yorkshire or South Wales, making up the numbers does become a problem. If the average age is really 72, I suspect the practise of standing people who aren't really capable of serving as councillors in unwinnable seats just to make up numbers may be more common than we realise. Now, I also heard 80％ of Tory MPs did not turn up for conference. Is this a symptom of the same problem, I wonder?
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
Its also a bit suss when you don't publish data which you previously have done. 4 years is a very long time and if there membership had been growing you would surely expect them to be shouting about it.
Basically though, a party becoming less popular when they are in government is about as normal as it gets. People getting disillusioned with a party, walking away from membership but still voting for them is exactly what I would expect to see from a party who have been in power this long.
Basically though, a party becoming less popular when they are in government is about as normal as it gets. People getting disillusioned with a party, walking away from membership but still voting for them is exactly what I would expect to see from a party who have been in power this long.
agricola
a genuine importer of owls
You would expect some decline, but to not publish the data for four years? Perhaps the way that Cameron ignored / sidelined the Tory membership after he became leader has resulted in a similar rate of decline in membership that Blair ignoring / sidelining the Labour membership did.
Yes, it is suspicious they are not publishing data.
On Cameron sidelining the rank and file I wonder how many members left during the UKIP flirtation. Whilst they will be back voting tory (and may always have done at GE's) giving up your membership would be an obvious protest and having given it up why would you bother taking it back out again? Particularly given the mess they are in at the moment.
Only a period in the wilderness and a new energetic leader will probably get their numbers back up. I don't think much of this says anything about voting intention though.
As of 2013... there is a reason they haven't released membership info since then. I heard it is estimated as about 100,000.
Streathamite
ideological dogmatist
Well, OK, but what about the age issue?
To repeat: at the last election, the Tories more or less owned the 59-75 age group, but Labour got a majority of everyone younger than that - and absolutely thumped the Tories in the 40 and under category.
Whichever way you look at it, a 39yo is probably going to be troubling the scorer for a good few years more than (say) a 69yo. So surely that's a hefty long-term problem for the Tories?
(And no, I don't accept people will automatically switch to the Tories when they hit 50. Depends how badly the Tories shafted them before that)
Streathamite
ideological dogmatist
That's what ConservativeHome said
Streathamite
ideological dogmatist
Just one rather huge problem with your line of argument:Labour got a majority of every voter under the age of 59.
I mean, how much older?
Streathamite
ideological dogmatist
The other points I would add: between 2005-2015, the Labour 'brand' got thoroughly trashed, one way and another, and in 2017, I would argue that it's highly likely that the a UKIP collapse resulted in a wholesale transfer across to the Tories
Goodwin posted a paper from 2013 that dealt with the aging tory thing the other day - they found a 0.38% shift to conservatives each year older a person gets, and that people who 'come of age' under a tory admin are a more conservative (relatively) than cohorts which come of age undor non-tory govts (I think butchersapron may have posted the findings of this paper before? It sounds familiar...) Which with an ageing population means the inbuilt advantage for the tories is only likely to get worse over time.
Here is relevant part of the conclusion...
Here is relevant part of the conclusion...
Streathamite
ideological dogmatist
I read somewhere recently that 47 is now the age at which the phenomenon of switching to Tories as you age really kicks in, can't find a link though
Supine
Newt Member
Raheem
Well-Known Member
I turned 47 last week and it definitely hasn't fucking happened to me
51 weeks to go, though. It'll probably start at a low level. Have you started worrying about the prospect of a female Doctor Who yet?
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BemusedbyLife
Well-Known Member
My Dad is 59 and my grandfather is 82 neither of them has voted Tory ever so its a bit like being at risk of dementia some get it and some don't, my mother toyed with it at the last election on the grounds that both she and May are women, my sister (also one) talked her out of it.
Puddy_Tat
naturally fluffy
I turned 47 last week and it definitely hasn't fucking happened to me
I read somewhere it was 48 and am a bit worried about turning that age next year. can you do a living will to request euthanasia if you start voting tory?
