Jeremy Corbyn's time is up
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Streathamite
ideological dogmatist
Oh YES!!!! A Sparks reference on U75.I always wondered what Ron Mael from Sparks did as a youth. Now I know - he was a model for socialist realism artwork.
I can truly die a happy man
Streathamite
ideological dogmatist
Not that long, without votes. They need the votes, and they are haemorrhaging them.
The key point is, a majority of people under 59 voted Labour last time. If the Tories somehow spin this out for 4 years, that's a huge slice of their majority wiped out, and a big boost to Labour, purely courtesy of the grim reaper
You're spot on regarding Corbyn. However regarding wasting my time, I find more enjoyment in debating politics with those I disagree with than nodding heads with those with whom I agree. Obviously, unlike myself, many here obviously prefer the feeling of security that being in the company of the likeminded presumably gives them.
Many of the posters here are typical socialists who probably have no idea what JFK was on about when he urged people to ask what they could do for their country rather than ask what their country can do for them.
Not much logic there. As people get older and wiser, they tend to vote Tory, so although some Tories may die off over the next few years, many more will take their place.
Corbyn was very good during the last election in persuading the young and gullible to vote for him. His vague comments about student loans in the lead up to the last election brought him a shit load of votes, only for him to backtrack on what he'd said, after the votes were counted. No doubt he will use the same tactics before the next election. Everyone likes a free lunch. Many of those who vote for him are more interested in immediate reward for themselves rather than the long term stability of our economy.
belboid
Exasperated, not angry.
Any evidence for this one? Although we are still waiting for the evidence you promised earlier, of course.
By the way, the fact that older people have voted Tory the last few elections is not evidence for your assertion.
btw, you're not actually 'debating politics', you're making a few sterotypical assertions and then buggering off.
It's self evident. You may not have noticed, but the Tories have been around a long, long time but have still been the most popular political party at the last few elections.
belboid
Exasperated, not angry.
Oh dear, you really don't understand, do you?
It is not 'self evident' at all. It is just an assertion. Please provide some actual evidence.
Raheem
Well-Known Member
So the evidence that people tend to get older, wiser and Torier is to do with the last three general elections? What about the period before that when not so many people were voting Tory? Were they all younger and sillier then? And why is it impossible that they can't be young and silly again?
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
Those scholarly articles, they're a figment of your imagination aren't they
NoXion
You remain unbroken, for your fight... is Eternal
How the fuck would you know? You've just uncritically swallowed whole his completely unsubstantiated assertion. Is that how shit works among Tory lickspittles?
No wonder the Tories are doing badly.
Which is why you've been banned already. Oh wait...
It's rhetoric, being used as a quote by some knob who thinks he's being clever. It can mean whatever the fuck you want it to mean.
Back to facts. Where are those scholarly articles that you mentioned earlier?
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
He was talking to his fellow Americans, not addressing people in Canada, Mexico, or the UK. Perhaps you should read the speech. You might learn something.
SpookyFrank
Float like a caterpillar, sting like a tree
A walking anachronism like Rees-Mogg could only gain traction in an echo chamber of a party stuffed to the gunwales with bleating reactionaries who can't string two thoughts together in a straight line without shitting themselves from the strain.
redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
Sorry, but that's absolute nonsense.
This is their performance over the last 12 years. That is not haemorrhaging votes.
Year | % of vote | % of electorate
2005 32.4 19.9
2010 36.1 23.5
2015 36.8 24.4
2017 42.4 29.2
Neither does current polling (FWIW) show any haemorrhaging, a decline from the pre-election (probably overestimated) values they had, but the general picture is the Tories and Labour pretty much neck and neck.
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Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
the best way to judge them then would be to hang them all and let them really be neck and neck
190 years isn't that long, in the grand scheme of things. They aren't immortal, and the complacent belief that they are entitled to some kind of natural place in British politics may be what kills them. It is true that old people get more set in their ways and more conservative with a small c, but that doesn't equate to becoming Tories. It could well be the case that they become set in anti-Toryism. Hell, ecological apocolypse is possible in the next century, to paraphrase Zizek is it really easier to imagine the end of the world than the end of the Tory Party?
It isn't inevitable that they will die - if they solve the housing crisis before the next election they can survive. But if we do not see any rent controls or council housing built this term, I predict that they will be a third of fourth party by the 2027 election.
So long as the Tories are the main party of business... but if their support drops too far, it is possible some wealthy donors could switch to the Lib Dems.
How much of that 29％ of the electorate are pensioners though?
The average age of the Tory Party is 72. Their support amongst the under 35s is 27％. Their support amongst the under 45s is 33％. This is a worse generation gap than they have ever had.
The sheer size of the baby boomer generation, whose firm support was won largely through them profiting from home ownership, has served to conceal how fucked the Tories really are and they are only just starting to realise it now.
eatmorecheese
Free the bimbo koala Kenny
That last sentence could describe the City and banking industries.
In your 'common sense' view if the world, is it acceptable that we live in a state that privatises profit and nationalises risk? State support and intervention to ameliorate the follies of big business but raw, unrestrained capitalism and all its consequences for those at the bottom?
Not expecting a reply btw.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
Anyone here remember the Tory party?, They were quite a big thing until they died in 1997.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
It's historical left parties dying isn't it, in this period, rather than right ones.
redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
If you mean the average of a member of the Tory party is 72 then killer b showed that that figure is pretty dubious here. 57 is a more likely number.
And yet they've increased both their share of the vote and the share of the electorate at the last three elections.
And demographics where going to kill them off in the 00s, just as demographics where going to mean that the Republicans would never win another presidential election. Not only is this argument utterly ignorant of the past but it ignores that people change and respond to material conditions.
This isn't true. Estimates vary (they don't publish figures) but most surveys put it at 57 (four years older than the average Labour member)
chilango
Hypothetical Wanker
Aren't all the traditional parties dying? The left parties just have fewer life-support systems to prolong their demise.
Silas Loom
Advanced. Forthright. Signifficant.
FPTP is a much stronger life support system than anything else, and I don't see much ideology-related difference in the way it sustains the big two in the UK. It can't be a coincidence that both cleaved to the centre in the millenial boom, and both have now been kidnapped by their fringes.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
Not really. I don't think so anyway. Maybe we need a list.
Anyone remember the two party system? Dealt a death blow in 2010.
Rob Ray
Weight is meaningless
Mm I don't see how the Tories are particularly fucked, when the older membership dies the next generation start to inherit, bringing their material interests into line with the Conservative coalition. Eventually that'll presumably reduce as an effect, as money continues to leech upwards, but it's not a sudden process of collapse. If things get particularly worrying they can start pushing the envelope on reducing inheritance tax (the single weirdest policy in their manifesto this year was threatening to rinse it, imo).
redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
And of course after the 'extinction' of the Tories in Scotland (which as danny la rouge has pointed out many times was always a silly mischaracterisation) they've now been 're-born'.
SpookyFrank
Float like a caterpillar, sting like a tree
There doesn't seem to be a reliable source for this. Nor does it seem mathematically likely. Modal age possibly.
Zapp Brannigan
Built like a steakhouse, handles like a bistro
The average age of 72 was stated on Have I Got News For You last Friday, by Alexander Armstrong as host. That's how we know it's bollocks.
