Jeremy Corbyn's time is up

[Wilf]

Sturgeon went too strong too early. Am v. interested in what EUrope tells her.

Yep, she sounds good, strong and organised (and she is), but she did overplay her hand on Friday.

 

[quimcunx]

Unconfirmed, but Chuka may have gone too. This could turn out to be a very good day

Cunxit

Not quimmy

Well, I did email chuka yesterday suggesting he either back his elected leader or fuck off to the tories so it might be cunxit.

 

[gosub]

Time for plan b: icepick time

If Jeremy only sticks it 7/10s of the way in - would that be seen as commitment issues?

 

[Fez909]

Where are the Corbyn allies backing him? All keeping schtum so their position is not under threat?

 

[danny la rouge]

Sturgeon went too strong too early. Am v. interested in what EUrope tells her.

Then you're misreading her, like all of the media and Andy Burnham (is pretending to have done). What do you think she said? Because it wasn't "we're going for indyref2".

It was actually "we're going to try to stay in the EU if at all possible. We have several parallel possible scenarios already in play".

 

[Puddy_Tat]

Where are the Corbyn allies backing him? All keeping schtum to their position is not under threat?

John McDonnell was on the telly earlier - mostly saying "Jeremy isn't going anywhere"

By the time I'd got a cup of tea they had Blair on so I turned the damn thing off

 

[Wilf]

It's always best to keep a class politics perspective and not get too drawn into thinking this Westminster dance is where its at. Same time, it is fascinating what's happened in the last 3 days. Out of the EU, genuine economic fears, PM resigning, Labour in meltdown, Scotland 2nd ref. Seen just as a series of dramatic events its probably as spectacular as anything since the 30s, maybe the formation of the McDonald's national government in 31 (not, obviously that I'm suggesting there'll be the same outcome here).

 

[magneze]

Massive support for ukip? Don't talk such bollocks. Where is Nigel farage in the house of Commons? How many councillors do they have?

Well they have had MEPs. So ... actually less power now?

 

[Wilf]

Well they have had MEPs. So ... actually less power now?

Hard to know where they'll be able to steal money from now that source has dried up. Maybe move on to nicking charity boxes.

 

[gosub]

Then you're misreading her, like all of the media and Andy Burnham (is pretending to have done). What do you think she said? Because it wasn't "we're going for indyref2".

It was actually "we're going to try to stay in the EU if at all possible. We have several parallel possible scenarios already in play".

And potentially widen fractal divisions within other member states.... Too hard, too soon.

 

[Pickman's model]

Well they have had MEPs. So ... actually less power now?

Yeh but no one knows what MEPs do other than shovel their snouts in the trough and trouser large sums of money for fuck all

 

[Rob Ray]

Where are the Corbyn allies backing him? All keeping schtum so their position is not under threat?

McDonnell, Abbot, Burgon, Stevens, Flynn, Lavery, Hussein and Trickett have publicly done so from what I've bothered to check, though mostly by Tweet. I did enjoy Burgon's response:



Which tbh you could probably replicate across most of the country.

 

[Fez909]

 

[Pickman's model]

And potentially widen fractal divisions within other member states.... Too hard, too soon.

Pretty patterns tho

 

[magneze]

Hard to know where they'll be able to steal money from now that source has dried up. Maybe move on to nicking charity boxes.

Hopefully they'll just fuck off and die.

 

[Ole]

So, so far we have

Hilary Benn - Shadow Foreign Secretary (nominated Burnham in 2015)
Heidi Alexander - Shadow Health Secretary (nominated Burnham in 2015)
Gloria De Piero - Shadow Minister for Young People and Voter Registration (nominated Kendell in 2015)

Possibles
Lillian Greenwood - Shadow Transport Secretary (nominated Burnham in 2015)

Have you ever seen such a gaggle of non-entities?

 

[Wilf]

I was going to say, pompously, that he's right but there's no point saying it - it's some kind of Greek Tragedy which will carry on till its bitter conclusion. Trouble is, its nothing so grand. Its more like a bunch of pissheads throwing ineffectual punches at each other in a pub car park, as the last bus home sails by un-noticed.

 

[killer b]

Paul Mason is trying to appeal to the wrong people: the blairites will not be reasoned with. The membership need to bring them in line, if that's possible.

 

[phildwyer]

isn't it the blairites that are the sort of 'guardian reading metropolitan elite' / sneering at 'white van man' that large chunks of the electorate say has lost touch?

Yep. The Guardian's mask has truly slipped over the last couple of days. In their rage, they have been forgetting to hide the real contempt they feel for the proles of the provinces.

 

[Wilf]

Paul Mason is trying to appeal to the wrong people: the blairites will not be reasoned with. The membership need to bring them in line, if that's possible.

Yep. But therein lies the problem, both the new expanded membership and the Corbyn leadership have let these arseholes do what they want for the last 6 months.

 

[Ole]

Does anybody really listen to what the polls have to say these days ? Is there ever a time when they actually got something right?

Hilary Benn and the Blairites are using the one poll to suggest that Corbyn is untenable as leader. The hacks who are putting mics in their faces are conveniently not presenting the polling evidence that directly contradicts this.

If polls matter then they all matter.

 

[Rob Ray]

Yep. The Guardian's mask has truly slipped over the last couple of days. In their rage, they have been forgetting to hide the real contempt they feel for the proles of the provinces.

Learned their lesson about leaving the comments section open though.

 

[Fez909]

Paul Mason is trying to appeal to the wrong people: the blairites will not be reasoned with. The membership need to bring them in line, if that's possible.

What's the process for deselecting an MP? I read an article from back in April talking about the upcoming coup attempt. So far, it's been on the money, predicting they will aim to oust him by/in July. One of the major threats the plotters faced if they tried was said to be deselection.

But despite all the talk about rules, privately the plotters believe that even if Mr Corbyn were required to seek nominations from fellow MPs to re-stand, due to a mixture of patronage and the fear of being deselected by new left-wing party members, it's perfectly possible that 35 MPs would support him this time in any case.

How does it work?

 

[Rob Ray]

Yep. But therein lies the problem, both the new expanded membership and the Corbyn leadership have let these arseholes do what they want for the last 6 months.

They had no reasonable way of getting rid, though now the right's gone for broke with a coup attempt they'll have less of a moral shield against reselection mutterings.

 

[danny la rouge]

Then you're misreading her, like all of the media and Andy Burnham (is pretending to have done). What do you think she said? Because it wasn't "we're going for indyref2".

It was actually "we're going to try to stay in the EU if at all possible. We have several parallel possible scenarios already in play".

Here's her statement in full.

"As things stand, Scotland faces the prospect of being taken out of the EU against our will."

Key words: "taken out" - ie "we're still in".

"I regard that as democratically unacceptable"

Ie - "we're using the large majority within the area of a devolved polity as our justification to stay".

"Starting this afternoon Ministers will be engaged in discussions with key stakeholders - particularly the business community"

Ie "This is aimed at you: pay attention. We're keen to retain access to the single market for you. Interested?"

"emphasise that as of now we are still firmly in the EU. Trade and business should continue as normal and we are determined that Scotland will continue now and in the future to be an attractive and a stable place to do business."

Ie - "Stable place. Still in EU. Do you read, business community?"

"Secondly, I want to make it absolutely clear that I intend to take all possible steps and explore all options to give effect to how people in Scotland voted - in other words, to secure our continuing place in the EU and in the single market in particular."

Ie "for the slow to latch on." And "all options. So not just Indy, do you follow me?"

"I will also be communicating over this weekend with each EU member state to make clear that Scotland has voted to stay in the EU - and that I intend to discuss all options for doing so."

Ie - "all options. Not just Indy".

"I should say that I have also spoken this morning with Mayor Sadiq Khan and he is clear that he shares this objective for London - so there is clear common cause between us."

Ie - "just in case you still don't get this, I'm addressing these hints to the UK-wide business community, not just Scottish business. I'm saying 'how about if Scotland tries to stay in the UK and in the EU? You'd still have access to the single market.'".

On indyref 2:

"It would not be right to rush to judgment ahead of discussions on how Scotland’s result will be responded to by the EU."

Ie - "I've got this card but I'm not playing it yet, and maybe I don't need to".

"And we said clearly that we do not want to leave the European Union.

I am determined that we will do what it takes to make sure that these aspirations are realised."

Ie "My priority here is to stay in the EU, not independence".

So she's said lots of times. "All options", indyref2 "on the table" (along with other options), and that it may be "highly likely", but if we move quickly enough it's not inevitable.

She's planning an EU member region of the U.K. That's her first preference. If it has to be a stop gap, fair enough, but it doesn't have to be. That's her message, and she's sending it to UK business and European leaders, not the press.

 

[phildwyer]

She's planning an EU member region of the U.K.

Is there a precedent for such an arrangement? Would it be legal?

 

[danny la rouge]

And potentially widen fractal divisions within other member states.... Too hard, too soon.

No, potentially keep UK business in the EU and avoid the breakup of a neighbouring state. Because that's the alternative.

 

[danny la rouge]

Is there a precedent for such an arrangement? Would it be legal?

Yes. Denmark has two home nations outside of the EU - the Faroe Islands and Greenland. Is this slightly different? Of course. But we're not in a hypothetical situation, this is real. What do you say guys? That's her message.

 

[danny la rouge]

I know this should be in the dedicated thread, but it came up. And it's part of the picture.

Scotland and the EU: what next?

 

[Supine]

Then you're misreading her, like all of the media and Andy Burnham (is pretending to have done). What do you think she said? Because it wasn't "we're going for indyref2".

It was actually "we're going to try to stay in the EU if at all possible. We have several parallel possible scenarios already in play".

Last night I was watching a Euro MEP (no idea who) saying that the UK would be leaving the EU - and then he corrected himself to say at least England will be leaving. It sounded like Scotland is getting EU support to remain.