Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[Ranbay]

You literally have no idea of what has been happening in europe for a decade now. 50% youth unemployment, suicides, pensions destroyed etc it's ok though you're a nationalist now.

 

[DexterTCN]

I'm not saying it isn't possible that a UK government rolls back these protections, it's certainly something to be concerned about.

So one of the consequences of leaving the EU is the strong chance that a future tory government would roll-back employment rights. And they would, there's no doubt. tories will always get back in

 

[Sunset Tree]

So one of the consequences of leaving the EU is the strong chance that a future tory government would roll-back employment rights. And they would, there's no doubt. tories will always get back in

I'd like to take a slightly more hopeful view of the future

 

[mauvais]

On the other hand, are there regulations a future UK government might want to introduce, which the EU would prevent.

Sure. Then we're into the dual questions of how likely that scenario is in terms of the nature of UK government, and the ability of the EU to prevent it (which obviously cuts both ways), and ultimately the wisdom of incurring the risks prematurely when you could have just quit once the circumstances were explicitly in your favour.

 

[Supine]

On the other hand, are there regulations a future UK government might want to introduce, which the EU would prevent.

Generally the EU regulate for minimum standards not maximums.

 

[Sunset Tree]

Sure. Then we're into the dual questions of how likely that scenario is in terms of the nature of UK government, and the ability of the EU to prevent it (which obviously cuts both ways), and ultimately the wisdom of incurring the risks prematurely when you could have just quit once the circumstances were explicitly in your favour.

Fair enough, I think the risks of leaving have been overstated, and if we're resigned to getting tory governments forever we might as well just give up now

 

[DotCommunist]

this has all been said before but lets also remember that neither the tory party or the european union gave us our rights.

 

[tommers]

You're apparently saying you can't envisage things getting any worse than they are now. To be fair this forms the basis of various leaver arguments, and obviously I don't know your personal situation, but regardless of whether I'm right or not, I gently suggest that your imagination is a little lacking. There's plenty more to be done, both in scope and speed.

One of the advantages for the Tories is that they can use any downturn in the economy following this as an excuse to enact policies that they have always wanted to, under the guise of "enabling British business to be competitive again".

So redundancy regulations, parenting leave, minimum wage and other employment rights can be removed much more easily than is currently the case. People might even cheer them for doing it.

 

[Wookey]

What exactly do you think will change? What do you think will happen? They'll have to cut and run? Sanctions will be imposed so the goods can't get in? This really is hysterical nonsense. I've got goods on the way from China, Thailand and Thaiwan and bits going the other way. They'll get delivered no problem. It's the EU stuff, stuff that didn't used to require documentation and didn't clog up the ports, where there will (and i mean will not might) be a problem if it's no deal.

If it's hysterical nonsense, then it's being peddled by the CBI, British Chamber of Commerce, EEF, British Retail Consortium. They all warned when the deadline was approaching in mid-Feb that the six-week long-haul shipments needed to know what their tariff terms are. They still don't.

So if we go with Mayhem's deal, we should be fine. If we don't and we go no deal, all our trade agreements with places like Japan will cease to exist. Which will mean new WTO tariffs on goods, which could entirely disrupt the financial balance of a long-haul trader's route, which by any stretch of the imagination should all be calculated before you set off, rather than while you wait outside a harbour on the far side of the world waiting to get in.

I don't think you fully appreciate the edge-like nature of the cliff-edge scenario my friend. If we don't have a deal, all hell will break loose. My point being, the echoes of this rift will not just be post-Brexit. They have already begun. The huge machine that is the world system is unravelling for us already, despite the warnings that were given.

If another country was doing this to us, we'd call it a crime.

 

[SpineyNorman]

If it's hysterical nonsense, then it's being peddled by the CBI, British Chamber of Commerce, EEF, British Retail Consortium. They all warned when the deadline was approaching in mid-Feb that the six-week long-haul shipments needed to know what their tariff terms are. They still don't.

So if we go with Mayhem's deal, we should be fine. If we don't and we go no deal, all our trade agreements with places like Japan will cease to exist. Which will mean new WTO tariffs on goods, which could entirely disrupt the financial balance of a long-haul trader's route, which by any stretch of the imagination should all be calculated before you set off, rather than while you wait outside a harbour on the far side of the world waiting to get in.

I don't think you fully appreciate the edge-like nature of the cliff-edge scenario my friend. If we don't have a deal, all hell will break loose. My point being, the echoes of this rift will not just be post-Brexit. They have already begun. The huge machine that is the world system is unravelling for us already, despite the warnings that were given.

If another country was doing this to us, we'd call it a crime.

Yet they still sailed. As they will continue to do. I'm not even sure if the CBI and other such groups have my interests completely at heart.

 

[butchersapron]

Sudden concern for long-haul traders economic well being - check

 

[butchersapron]

"then it's being peddled by the CBI, British Chamber of Commerce, EEF, British Retail Consortium".

 

[Sunset Tree]

YI'm not even sure if the CBI and other such groups have my interests completely at heart.

Reminds me of the remain campaign about how every expert thinks we should remain, cue list of elite bankers etc who everyone hates

 

[butchersapron]

"then it's being peddled by the CBI, British Chamber of Commerce, EEF, British Retail Consortium".

Not my words, Carol. The words of Top Gear magazine.

 

[DexterTCN]

Reminds me of the remain campaign about how every expert thinks we should remain, cue list of elite bankers etc who everyone hates

car workers

 

[Pickman's model]

If it's hysterical nonsense, then it's being peddled by the CBI, British Chamber of Commerce, EEF, British Retail Consortium. They all warned when the deadline was approaching in mid-Feb that the six-week long-haul shipments needed to know what their tariff terms are. They still don't.

So if we go with Mayhem's deal, we should be fine. If we don't and we go no deal, all our trade agreements with places like Japan will cease to exist. Which will mean new WTO tariffs on goods, which could entirely disrupt the financial balance of a long-haul trader's route, which by any stretch of the imagination should all be calculated before you set off, rather than while you wait outside a harbour on the far side of the world waiting to get in.

I don't think you fully appreciate the edge-like nature of the cliff-edge scenario my friend. If we don't have a deal, all hell will break loose. My point being, the echoes of this rift will not just be post-Brexit. They have already begun. The huge machine that is the world system is unravelling for us already, despite the warnings that were given.

If another country was doing this to us, we'd call it a crime.

This is the end
No safety or surprise
The end
I'll never look into your eyes
Again
Can you picture what will be
So limitless and free?

 

[DexterTCN]

foreign nurses and doctors

 

[SpineyNorman]

foreign nurses and doctors

Have you given up even trying to form sentences now?

 

[Wookey]

Yet they still sailed. As they will continue to do. I'm not even sure if the CBI and other such groups have my interests completely at heart.

They did sail, yes. And it might be alright yet, we just don't know. It's that uncertainty which is anathema to business, as you know.

But it's not the most professional of optics, really. We've been sea trading for hundreds and hundreds of years, and we're pissing all over the established world order with no elan OR panache OR even a jaunty tricorn hat. Much like Trump and the China tariffs, which resulted in ships racing across the oceans to beat the soybean tariff increase that China was putting up against Trump's declaration of trade war, we're involved in some dodgy hopeful wait-and-see act with international deliveries because we're potentially about to break our established trade structure in a way and to a degree that no nation in history has ever done before.

 

[Sunset Tree]

we're pissing all over the established world order

We should know our place

 

[SpineyNorman]

They did sail, yes. And it might be alright yet, we just don't know. It's that uncertainty which is anathema to business, as you know.

But it's not the most professional of optics, really. We've been sea trading for hundreds and hundreds of years, and we're pissing all over the established world order with no elan OR panache OR even a jaunty tricorn hat. Much like Trump and the China tariffs, which resulted in ships racing across the oceans to beat the soybean tariff increase that China was putting up against Trump's declaration of trade war, we're involved in some dodgy hopeful wait-and-see act with international deliveries because we're potentially about to break our established trade structure in a way and to a degree that no nation in history has ever done before.

WTO rules. The goods will get there fine.

 

[Wolveryeti]

On the other hand, are there regulations a future UK government might want to introduce, which the EU would prevent.

In practice this would seem a bit of a remote risk given the problem to date has entirely been the UK electing governments that enthusiastically lead from the front in pursuing neoliberal policies (e.g. marketisation, privatisation) that far, far outstrip any supranational directives the EU has put forth.

 

[Wookey]

Sudden concern for long-hail traders economic well being - check

You seem remarkably able to separate our export trade from our domestic economy and the welfare of the average working person. How do you DO that?!

 

[Sunset Tree]

In practice this would seem a bit of a remote risk given the problem to date has entirely been the UK electing governments that enthusiastically lead from the front in pursuing neoliberal policies (e.g. marketisation, privatisation) that far, far outstrip any supranational directives the EU has put forth.

Yes but as I've said, if we have no hope for the future what is even the point

 

[Wookey]

We should know our place

We should work within a system that works for us. Or invent a better one.

But jumping from a window shouting Wibble Wibble should not be a menu option.

 

[Wookey]

WTO rules. The goods will get there fine.

So a 20% increase on whisky tariffs currently on their way to Singapore. That would make the shipment bankrupt. That's Special Ironic Brew Scotch Whisky of course.

 

[SpineyNorman]

You seem remarkably able to separate our export trade from our domestic economy and the welfare of the average working person. How do you DO that?!

Do you seriously think governments in the far East will shaft the UK on import tariffs? Its in their interests to keep them down. It'll be wto rules until separate deals are struck.

EU trade is a different matter.

 

[SpineyNorman]

So a 20% increase on whisky tariffs currently on their way to Singapore. That would make the shipment bankrupt. That's Special Ironic Brew Scotch Whisky of course.

You were predicting armageddon a few posts ago with the CBI as your witness. Now it's some whisky.

 

[Wolveryeti]

WTO rules. The goods will get there fine.

As long as they don't rot during checks.
And the export countries recognise our standards.
And the tariffs don't destroy the point of exporting in the first place.

 

[Wookey]

Do you seriously think governments in the far East will shaft the UK on import tariffs? Its in their interests to keep them down. It'll be wto rules until separate deals are struck.

EU trade is a different matter.

WTO rules would MEAN shafting the UK. They are not good at all. No-one in the world trades solely on WTO rules, BECAUSE they are so shit.