Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[existentialist]

Says who?

Says quite a lot of the EU hierarchy, from what I can tell. Though I imagine all kinds of informal discussions will be taking place sub rosa, all the same...

 

[butchersapron]

How do you think it will pan out?
My current feeling (until I change my mind latter) is that we will 'leave' but on terms that keep things pretty much as they are. Doing otherwise would be too damaging to the 'political legitimacy' of the state. But with such a close vote maybe not?

We will be presented with something cooked up by non-politicians but that politicians will try to sell us over the next few weeks. It's first attempt will be well short of brexit and will really be a re-badged status quo. They'll use it as a tester - to see what the reaction is.

 

[emanymton]

We will be presented with something cooked up by non-politicians but that politicians will try to sell us over the next few weeks. It's first attempt will be well short of brexit and will really be a re-badged status quo. They'll use it as a tester - to see what the reaction is.

Sounds plausible, and not too far from what I suggested. Something that allows them to pretend they are respecting the result, but with smallest amount of real change they can get away with.

Of course this will just further antagonise the hard core leavers.

 

[wheelie_bin]

I have to say, though, that there are some thing which just cannot be respected. And, to be frank, if someone told me (as they did) that their reason for wanting to vote Leave was any one (or more of) "I want to control immigration"/"We can manage on our own"/"Bring back the Spitfire"/"I want my country back", then I, too, would be having trouble respecting their decision.

I fully accept that, as a remain voter, the echo chamber I inhabit doesn't tend to have a lot of Leave voters in it - but there are still quite a few, and they seem to have been very short on reasoned, cogent arguments for getting out of Europe. Where they did, I could respect their views, even if I didn't agree with them. But the vast bulk seemed to me to be basing their decision on little more than "Waaaaah, don't wanna!".

So I didn't find myself overwhelmed with a desire to respect this position.

I bet your echo chamber of remain talked a bunch of emotional crap too, so what? I asked many a remain supporter "do you agree with the 5 presidents report's vision for the EU", only ever met one who'd even read it, never met one who agreed with its vision for the EU. Huge numbers voted for remain based on fear of the impact of change on the economy and a wishy washy ideal that doesn't exist, or because they kept being told it was "status quo" when it wasn't, it was ongoing integration, ongoing austerity and privatisation over lack of care for its citizens rights. Sometimes people don't express themselves very well, that's when you read some of the many articles where people better express the issues. Sure, not everybody thought through every point, that wasn't the case on either side and it never will be. I'd still rather have democracy, what would you prefer?

 

[keybored]

Says who?

There's only been a referendum, invoking Article 50 is what begins the formal negotiations (butcher's point in #108 taken though). There will be no "deal" until/after then.

Merkal et al have even been quite clear that there are to be no informal talks until then either.

European leaders rule out informal Brexit talks before article 50 is triggered

 

[DotCommunist]

There's only been a referendum, invoking Article 50 is what begins the formal negotiations (butcher's point in #108 taken though). There will be no "deal" until/after then.

Merkal et al have even been quite clear that there are to be no informal talks until then either.

European leaders rule out informal Brexit talks before article 50 is triggered

'we don't negotiate with terrorists'


(elements of us have been talking with elements of thiers for years on the down low etc)

 

[existentialist]

I bet your echo chamber of remain talked a bunch of emotional crap too, so what?

Yes, it did. But I pride myself on having sufficient critical thinking skills to separate out the emotional crap from actual arguments, even if I can't actually delude myself into thinking I'm totally independent.

What has seemed very clear to me is that a large proportion of those self-declaring as Leave voters really didn't have the first clue about what they were voting for. I take your point about the Remain voters who haven't informed themselves to your satisfaction...but then the Remain voters weren't the ones demanding that we take a great leap into the completely unknown.

Sure, not everybody thought through every point, that wasn't the case on either side and it never will be. I'd still rather have democracy, what would you prefer?

Good question. Right now, my biggest concern is that, if what we have just seen was democracy in action, and if that really is the best system, then we're utterly fucked.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

There's only been a referendum, invoking Article 50 is what begins the formal negotiations (butcher's point in #108 taken though). There will be no "deal" until/after then.

Merkal et al have even been quite clear that there are to be no informal talks until then either.

European leaders rule out informal Brexit talks before article 50 is triggered

Cameron is off to Brussels today to meet with Merkel, doubt their conversation will be exclusively about cheese & beans.

 

[wheelie_bin]

I take your point about the Remain voters who haven't informed themselves to your satisfaction...but then the Remain voters weren't the ones demanding that we take a great leap into the completely unknown.

Don't pretend the outcome was status quo. Can you give me a coherent argument for the changes proposed in the 5 presidents report?

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

What has seemed very clear to me is that a large proportion of those self-declaring as Leave voters really didn't have the first clue about what they were voting for.

No they didn't and we're still not sure. But as can be seen by the result, the majority of people in this country have been shat on so fucking hard for so long that they no longer gave a fuck and went with the anything other than this option.

If people still won't accept this then violent revolution is the only thing left.

 

[existentialist]

Don't pretend the outcome was status quo. Can you give me a coherent argument for the changes proposed in the 5 presidents report?

No, and I am not going to rush off and bone up on it in order to pretend that I can.

I voted "remain" simply because, flawed as the European project might be, it's better than the ludicrous appeals to rose-tinted hindsight and optimistic guesswork that the Leave camp were trying to persuade us with. And because I believe that the UK is perfectly capable, as it has in the past, of playing its part in ensuring that Europe worked to our best advantage. I watched as Leave told lie after lie about the benefits of leaving, and I felt - although I admit I was going to take some serious persuading - that, if the best they could offer was fearmongering (yes, I know Remain did their share of that), and a tissue of paper-thin lies about how leaving was going to make everything better (lies which I note that, before the referendum result was cold, were being backed away from), then there was little there to persuade me otherwise.

These things are complex. All of us have, to some extent, to rely on others whom we have some measure of trust in to advise us as to what the options and implications are. I chose to trust those "experts" that a lot of the Leave heavyweights insisted we ignore, who were warning of the likely economic, legal, and social consequences of an exit. From what I have seen since Friday morning, they look to have been a lot closer to the mark than the rapidly-disintegrating Leave arguments, most of which don't even seem to appeal much to their own camp any more, in any case.

 

[existentialist]

No they didn't and we're still not sure. But as can be seen by the result, the majority of people in this country have been shat on so fucking hard for so long that they no longer gave a fuck and went with the anything other than this option.

If people still won't accept this then violent revolution is the only thing left.

I suspect that violence, even if it isn't revolutionary, is very much in the offing. For at least a decade (and I think it's probably a lot longer than that), the political system here has been slanted increasingly towards a professional political/economic class, broadening the divide between the expectations and aspirations of an increasingly large slice of the population. I am not quite sure how we've managed to dodge serious unrest so far, but what I think we're staring in the face now is a serious level of disaffection with politics and politicians, with a nice vein of really unpleasant racist and hard-right nonsense threaded through it. If that doesn't flare up into some major disorder quite soon, I'll be surprised.

 

[gosub]

There is a real gap here. A lot of people are talking about this in terms of politics - in terms of personalities and parties when what's key here is the state and capital. The state manages the short-medium term interests of total capital as without such a function the immediate short-term competitive nature of individual capitals leads to ruin and the things required for its continued existence not happening (large scale infra-structure, education, circulation networks, political legitimacy etc). When the state fails to provide one/any number of these things, or acts against the plans of that total capital - both situations that exist today - you have a legitimation crisis from above. The trad legitimation crisis (from below) is when the w/c no longer trusts in the state to deliver its basic needs as a result of a substantive defeat by capital and the state not being able to reconcile the two. We now have a massive gap between capital and its state and the w/c and the state that is supposed to integrate them into capital. Whatever happens now is not going to be because an individual decides to do something. Looking at the politicians is looking in the wrong places.

UK 10-year gilt yield falls below 1% - FT.com

 

[wheelie_bin]

No, and I am not going to rush off and bone up on it in order to pretend that I can.

I voted "remain" simply because, flawed as the European project might be, it's better than the ludicrous appeals to rose-tinted hindsight and optimistic guesswork that the Leave camp were trying to persuade us with. And because I believe that the UK is perfectly capable, as it has in the past, of playing its part in ensuring that Europe worked to our best advantage. I watched as Leave told lie after lie about the benefits of leaving, and I felt - although I admit I was going to take some serious persuading - that, if the best they could offer was fearmongering (yes, I know Remain did their share of that), and a tissue of paper-thin lies about how leaving was going to make everything better (lies which I note that, before the referendum result was cold, were being backed away from), then there was little there to persuade me otherwise.

These things are complex. All of us have, to some extent, to rely on others whom we have some measure of trust in to advise us as to what the options and implications are. I chose to trust those "experts" that a lot of the Leave heavyweights insisted we ignore, who were warning of the likely economic, legal, and social consequences of an exit. From what I have seen since Friday morning, they look to have been a lot closer to the mark than the rapidly-disintegrating Leave arguments, most of which don't even seem to appeal much to their own camp any more, in any case.

Yes, it's complex. Thanks for admitting that you didn't do basic research yourself. I did, which is why I voted leave. Many other people did too. The issues since Friday are caused by our political leaders not being prepared, not caused by the EU being some fairytale force for good. The politicians must get prepared or get kicked out.

 

[wheelie_bin]

UK 10-year gilt yield falls below 1% - FT.com

Which means there is not much chance of interest rates going up. Did anybody think they would?

 

[Skyfallsz]

I think it would be more sensible if people had organised against the way that the EU is being run and forced our politicians to be more active in representing us in it, rather than just fucking it off and then expecting that the fallout is some victory
I don't see why some force for positive social change is going to suddenly come about as a result of this, it probably would be an amazing opportunity for the British left to influence the way our society is organised in light of such a massive failure for capitalism, if the British left had any meaningful impact on society. Most people just won't listen to you if you start banging on about 'capital'. You may be right, but it won't hold water, I'd guess that people were generally voting out of disillusionment with the system more than anything else, but it doesn't follow that positive change will come about

 

[tim]

There's only been a referendum, invoking Article 50 is what begins the formal negotiations (butcher's point in #108 taken though). There will be no "deal" until/after then.

Merkal et al have even been quite clear that there are to be no informal talks until then either.

European leaders rule out informal Brexit talks before article 50 is triggered

Everyone has to save face but Merkel and the others know that no sensible British PM will trigger article 50 until they know they've got the best deal possible. It's just practical poliitics. You exploit the power that you have.

 

[Thomas_]

We could have a referendum on whether to invoke Article 50?

 

[existentialist]

Yes, it's complex. Thanks for admitting that you didn't do basic research yourself.

That is not actually what I said.

In misrepresenting what I wrote, you appear to be applying the same relationship between statements and truth that was so much in evidence during the pre-referendum campaign, and particularly amongst certain areas of the Leave campaign...

 

[SpookyFrank]

Cameron is off to Brussels today to meet with Merkel, doubt their conversation will be exclusively about cheese & beans.

Presumably they'll also be looking into the thorny issue of cream first or jam first.

 

[wheelie_bin]

Existentialism - Your remain vote was supporting a unification strategy that you admit you haven't read. The experts predicted some early disruption, I don't think there are any Leave voters who expected none. The worst case scenarios in the PWC report for example still have UK on higher GDP in year 15, just not as much, this is in the worst case that takes into account no other areas of improvement. Research means not just looking at the sound bites of remain's campaign or leave's campaign and gut instinct, but reading actual full reports. I'm sorry if my comment was overly harsh, it just came across that you hadn't done much when you were criticising others for the same.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

Presumably they'll also be looking into the thorny issue of cream first or jam first.

"Ze jam, zen ze cream!"

And that kids is how WW3 started

 

[hot air baboon]

No they didn't and we're still not sure. But as can be seen by the result, the majority of people in this country have been shat on so fucking hard for so long that they no longer gave a fuck and went with the anything other than this option.

If people still won't accept this then violent revolution is the only thing left.

...I've been explaining to some of my younger colleagues - very unsettled and upset by this result ( esp. by the stories emerging of racially focused hostility as a couple are of Indian background ) how their immediate and understandable fear that London is suddenly going to receive an economic bullet in the head with mass closure of employers, head offices pulling out, business sectors collapsing as they are hung out to dry is exactly what happened in the 80's across entire regions of the country - that correspond largely to the areas that voted so strongly for Leave - and all done by their own government...and left high & dry ever since....

 

[existentialist]

Existentialism - Your remain vote was supporting a unification strategy that you admit you haven't read. The experts predicted some early disruption, I don't think there are any Leave voters who expected none. The worst case scenarios in the PWC report for example still have UK on higher GDP in year 15, just not as much, this is in the worst case that takes into account no other areas of improvement. Research means not just looking at the sound bites of remain's campaign or leave's campaign and gut instinct, but reading actual full reports. I'm sorry if my comment was overly harsh, it just came across that you hadn't done much when you were criticising others for the same.

The harshness of your comment was not an issue; its lack of accuracy was.

 

[wheelie_bin]

Ok, any more becomes a pointless argument and we have more than enough politicians doing that right now, so I'll just leave it there.

 

[HoratioCuthbert]

I bet your echo chamber of remain talked a bunch of emotional crap too, so what? I asked many a remain supporter "do you agree with the 5 presidents report's vision for the EU", only ever met one who'd even read it, never met one who agreed with its vision for the EU. Huge numbers voted for remain based on fear of the impact of change on the economy and a wishy washy ideal that doesn't exist, or because they kept being told it was "status quo" when it wasn't, it was ongoing integration, ongoing austerity and privatisation over lack of care for its citizens rights. Sometimes people don't express themselves very well, that's when you read some of the many articles where people better express the issues. Sure, not everybody thought through every point, that wasn't the case on either side and it never will be. I'd still rather have democracy, what would you prefer?

Haha, I kept referring to it as the status quo which I thought obviously meant on going integration/austerity, then was surprised when after the vote many were saying "if we voted remain everything would have stayed the same!" Surely status quo could loosely be used to refer to one particular direction of travel? Good point though I'd never looked at it that way.

 

[wheelie_bin]

Haha, I'd never thought of it that way but you're right to a degree, it means literally staying the same, which I guess politically could imply the integration road of travel as well as austerity.

 

[hash tag]

Considering that Donald Tusk is currently president of Europe, Merkel is certainly throwing her weight around!
I didn't know whether to laugh or cry when I heard this, this morning

"She made clear that Britain could not expect full access to the European Union’s common market without accepting its conditions, including the free movement of people. Immigration was the crux of the often ugly debate that accompanied the so-called Brexit campaign." http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/29/world/europe/brexit.html?_r=0

What is clear is that we still have a long long way to go!

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

Considering that Donald Tusk is currently president of Europe, Merkel is certainly throwing her weight around!

According to Forbes she is the second most powerful person on Earth.

And no one knows who the fuck Donald Tusk is.

 

[Sea Star]

The ballot papers said remain or leave the EU and the voters chose leave.

And most of those people voted leave based on bullshit they'd been fed by the media. I declare it null and void.