Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[Sea Star]

They will have to trigger article 50 asap. I agree it has to wait until a negotiating team can be assembled & that might take 3mnths & I see nothing wrong with informal talks first but it cannot be open ended. The referendum result cannot be overturned or rerun until a desired result that is achieved. ignoring election results they don't like is the stuff of dictatorships.

Nope. Dictatorships don't get election results they don't like. This is the stuff of a nuanced and complex parliamentary democracy

 

[hash tag]

To make sure I haven't missed Tusk anywhere, I just searched him. The most recent news to appear for/from him is that he tweeted that " winter is coming " in reference to Englands performance in Europe. Not sure if he is talking about some sporting event or something political!

 

[Louis MacNeice]

And most of those people voted leave based on bullshit they'd been fed by the media. I declare it null and void.

Did the media only peddle pro-leave bullshit or was there some remain bovine excrement on offer as well? Or is it that remain voters were undupeable?

Cheers - Louis MacNeice

 

[butchersapron]

And most of those people voted leave based on bullshit they'd been fed by the media. I declare it null and void.

Nope. Dictatorships don't get election results they don't like. This is the stuff of a nuanced and complex parliamentary democracy

The process is fine - it's the voters i disagree with who are shit. Is that right?

 

[brogdale]

To make sure I haven't missed Tusk anywhere, I just searched him. The most recent news to appear for/from him is that he tweeted that " winter is coming " in reference to Englands performance in Europe. Not sure if he is talking about some sporting event or something political!

Even more was conflating England ("footballers") with the UK.

 

[wheelie_bin]

And most of those people voted leave based on bullshit they'd been fed by the media. I declare it null and void.

No, you believe the media that gives you bullshit that people voted leave because of the campaigns. I can't think of anyone I know who said they liked either the remain or the leave campaign. The Ashcroft report shows over 50% had made their minds up by the beginning of this year, the splits on when people decided are almost exactly equal basis between leave and remain. So you could have run the referendum in January amongst the "decided" voters and got an almost identical result (slightly higher for leave). Look at the stats.

 

[wheelie_bin]

Donald Tusk said that Brexit would likely bring about the end of Western political civilisation. To be fair, it is an omnishambles right now.

Ah, found it: Donald Tusk: Brexit could destroy Western political civilisation - BBC News.

 

[hash tag]

The process is fine - it's the voters i disagree with who are shit. Is that right?

Are the voters the issue or is it really the so called politicians, particularly those with personal agenda's and ambitions.
If, I reiterate if, Boris did become PM, he could well have one hell of an issue to sort out and I reckon he has already realised it is a bit of a poisoned chalice. That said, nothing will stop him going for it

 

[1%er]

Cameron made it clear during the campaign that he would trigger article 50 "as soon as possible after a Leave vote" and "the British people would rightly expect that to start straight away", typical political speak, sounds like a commitment but isn't really when you read it properly.

Oh the irony, an EU commissioner (from Sweden I think) talking about democracy, claiming that if the UK does not trigger article 50 by the end of the year, the other 27 countries may well act using article 7 of the Lisbon treaty to suspend the UK. He went on to explain that if the UK government doesn't follow the will of UK citizens the UK government will be "in breach of the basic principles of democracy" so article 7 can be used (I don't think that would wash in the real world, its just bluster ).

I will not believe the UK intends to leave until article 50 has been triggered, no major UK political party that currently has any chance of being in power wants to leave, they will say it was a non-binding referendum and all the party's will have a policy in their manifesto saying they want to remain in the EU.

Politicians ignore electorate shocker

 

[HoratioCuthbert]

I think it would be more sensible if people had organised against the way that the EU is being run and forced our politicians to be more active in representing us in it, rather than just fucking it off and then expecting that the fallout is some victory
I don't see why some force for positive social change is going to suddenly come about as a result of this, it probably would be an amazing opportunity for the British left to influence the way our society is organised in light of such a massive failure for capitalism, if the British left had any meaningful impact on society. Most people just won't listen to you if you start banging on about 'capital'. You may be right, but it won't hold water, I'd guess that people were generally voting out of disillusionment with the system more than anything else, but it doesn't follow that positive change will come about

Whilst it's true the left is shite at talking to people you don't want to go all the way to the other side and not talk about capital because what else can you call it? All that obsession with communist history could be dropped...."Comrade" (this carry on is particularly alienating for Eastern Europeans living here in my experience) I'm not sure people generally voted without thinking about it- many knew the Norway model for example would be on the table. But I don't think either side expected the chaos and so soon, this doesn't make leavers irresponsible nutters- all that happened on Thursday was votes were counted. We haven't even triggered article fifty yet. who knew. It does indicate we were in a precarious situation to begin with though no?

And most of those people voted leave based on bullshit they'd been fed by the media. I declare it null and void.

Most? The only poll on this subject seems to suggest otherwise. facebook threads were full of insightful comments from leavers. Facebook! It never came as a surprise to me when I learned 68 per cent voted leave for logical reasons.

Donald Tusk said that Brexit would likely bring about the end of Western political civilisation. To be fair, it is an omnishambles right now.

Ah, found it: Donald Tusk: Brexit could destroy Western political civilisation - BBC News.

He was duped, he believed all those ISIS brexit demands. It's a shame that wasn't an option on the Ashcroft poll, now we'll never know how many voted for it.

 

[Pickman's model]

Cameron made it clear during the campaign that he would trigger article 50 "as soon as possible after a Leave vote" and "the British people would rightly expect that to start straight away", typical political speak, sounds like a commitment but isn't really when you read it properly.

Oh the irony, an EU commissioner (from Sweden I think) talking about democracy, claiming that if the UK does not trigger article 50 by the end of the year, the other 27 countries may well act using article 7 of the Lisbon treaty to suspend the UK. He went on to explain that if the UK government doesn't follow the will of UK citizens the UK government will be "in breach of the basic principles of democracy" so article 7 can be used (I don't think that would wash in the real world, its just bluster ).

I will not believe the UK intends to leave until article 50 has been triggered, no major UK political party that currently has any chance of being in power wants to leave, they will say it was a non-binding referendum and all the party's will have a policy in their manifesto saying they want to remain in the EU.

Politicians ignore electorate shocker

Yes. But by putting a decision off (my successor will do it will be followed by time not yet right etc) after 18 months I think they'll turn round and say openly 'it is now December 2017 and a referendum held 18 months ago no longer represents the view of the people'

 

[wheelie_bin]

I will not believe the UK intends to leave until article 50 has been triggered, no major UK political party that currently has any chance of being in power wants to leave, they will say it was a non-binding referendum and all the party's will have a policy in their manifesto saying they want to remain in the EU.

Politicians ignore electorate shocker

So what then, we end up with a couple of little splinter parties and UKIP charging off with the vote. As well as a few riots. Doesn't sound like a good plan to me.

 

[Pickman's model]

So what then, we end up with a couple of little splinter parties and UKIP charging off with the vote. As well as a few riots. Doesn't sound like a good plan to me.

Yeh. But you're not a politician.

 

[1%er]

So what then, we end up with a couple of little splinter parties and UKIP charging off with the vote. As well as a few riots. Doesn't sound like a good plan to me.

I have no idea what the British people should do, maybe have some tea and calm down a little.

They could do what has just happened here and have a political coup

 

[hot air baboon]

Oh the irony, an EU commissioner (from Sweden I think) talking about democracy, claiming that if the UK does not trigger article 50 by the end of the year, the other 27 countries may well act using article 7 of the Lisbon treaty to suspend the UK. He went on to explain that if the UK government doesn't follow the will of UK citizens the UK government will be "in breach of the basic principles of democracy" so article 7 can be used (I don't think that would wash in the real world, its just bluster ).

....presumably would need to be unanimous ...we can assume the French'll be first to sign up....but it does looks like some hard core federalists in the EU techno-structure really want us out - finally clearing that stubborn blockage in the way of the bright shiny autobahn to the US of E...

 

[1%er]

....presumably would need to be unanimous ...we can assume the French'll be first to sign up....but it does looks like some hard core federalists in the EU techno-structure really want us out - finally clearing that stubborn blockage in the way of the bright shiny autobahn to the US of E...

The french politicians maybe, not the french people as they know what it is like to have a referendum and have the result ignored. They along with the Dutch voted against the European Constitution but got all the articles anyway in the Treaty of Lisbon, that's how democracy works in the EU.

The people throw things out of the front door and the EU brings them back in via the back door.

 

[wheelie_bin]

That's not quite true, sometimes the EU throws them back in through a window.

 

[Kesher]

Brexecution ain't happening because the referendum result was 2-2 draw. I hope so.

Constitutional expert on why Brexit should not happen

 

[Pickman's model]

To make sure I haven't missed Tusk anywhere, I just searched him. The most recent news to appear for/from him is that he tweeted that " winter is coming " in reference to Englands performance in Europe. Not sure if he is talking about some sporting event or something political!

Long range weather forecast

 

[brogdale]

Long range weather forecast

Far less impressive than that; merely an expression of the inevitable, linear progression of seasonal change related to the planet's orbit and tilt relative to insolation.
Man's clearly a simpleton.

 

[Sirena]

Legends have it that great heroes lie only sleeping until their country needs them.

Bran the Blessed, whose head is buried under Tower Hill, King Arthur, whose body was taken to Lyonesse... On these we can call, when this land has need of them.

And, now, Cometh the day, Cometh the man.......

Tony Blair hints at role as Brexit negotiator in EU talks that will require 'serious statesmanship'

 

[emanymton]

I think this is the most revelvant thread for this

UK government faces pre-emptive legal action over Brexit decision

I've not had time to read the article in full yet and I need to head of to work in a minute. But it was reported on the Today programme this morning that it is being organised by a group of academics and business leaders. Something the guardian does not seem to mention on a quick skim. Maybe I should cross post it in the guardian is shit thread.

 

[brogdale]

I think this is the most revelvant thread for this

UK government faces pre-emptive legal action over Brexit decision

I've not had time to read the article in full yet and I need to head of to work in a minute. But it was reported on the Today programme this morning that it is being organised by a group of academics and business leaders. Something the guardian does not seem to mention on a quick skim. Maybe I should cross post it in the guardian is shit thread.

This plays on the irony of 'sovereignty' being returned to the mother of Parliaments by undermining its sovereignty.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

I think this is the most revelvant thread for this

UK government faces pre-emptive legal action over Brexit decision

I've not had time to read the article in full yet and I need to head of to work in a minute. But it was reported on the Today programme this morning that it is being organised by a group of academics and business leaders. Something the guardian does not seem to mention on a quick skim. Maybe I should cross post it in the guardian is shit thread.

It's like the Cairo Fly Fishing Championship.

Article 50 will be triggered by the new Tory PM.

Why the fuck wouldn't it be? You're the new Tory PM and you can trigger A50 and end the thing that has been tearing your party apart for the past 40 years, or you can not do it and nuke your party in to history. Your choice.

 

[danny la rouge]

Two legal blog posts relevant to this thread:

The Mishcon de Reya legal challenge on Article 50 – some thoughts

Parliament, Article 50, and the Leave Paradox

 

[andysays]

Two legal blog posts relevant to this thread:

The Mishcon de Reya legal challenge on Article 50 – some thoughts

Parliament, Article 50, and the Leave Paradox

Following up this "Leave paradox" thing, which I've seen touted in various places

Those who campaigned Leave so as to uphold Parliamentary Sovereignty are now unhappy at prospect of Parliament being sovereign about whether to Leave.

Some of those who campaigned for Leave may have done so on the basis of Parliamentary Sovereignty, but I suspect many of those who voted for Leave will be less than impressed if their wishes are over-ruled on that basis.

If nothing else, it will be an object lesson in just where the limits of our national democracy lie #Iwantmycountryback

 

[butchersapron]

It's quite simple. While there may be parliamentary sovereignty (and the two most influential political defenders of this idea in modern times were both virulently anti-eu) this doesn't mean that parliamentary representatives are free from the requirement to observe the political realities of nationwide expressions of political belief. And the wider point this raises if they are there - as they are in the foundation of the theory of parliamentary sovereignty - to represent a wider popular sovereignty then to argue this wider sovereignty is secondary to parliamentary supremacy is to take us back to pre-civil war days.

Within 24 hours i've seen two different remain cases being made that are pre-democratic and reactionary and that were recognised as such as early as the 17th century. (The other being here).

 

[danny la rouge]

Following up this "Leave paradox" thing, which I've seen touted in various places


Some of those who campaigned for Leave may have done so on the basis of Parliamentary Sovereignty, but I suspect many of those who voted for Leave will be less than impressed if their wishes are over-ruled on that basis.

If nothing else, it will be an object lesson in just where the limits of our national democracy lie #Iwantmycountryback

Indeed. There are several points that play out here.

1.There is an obvious clash between the concepts of "national sovereignty" and "parliamentary sovereignty": they are not synonyms, though many nationalists and others may present them (and even see them) as such. In British constitutional terms, parliament is where power resides (through the concept of Crown-in-Parliament), but the parliament is not the nation, and to assume unity of interests between the two concepts is erroneous.

2. The electorate is not sovereign under British constitutional tradition. This may come as a shock to many. It may even make them angry if confronted with this reality in a stark enough manner.

3. Parliament is not there to represent the wishes of the people. It is there to impose the wishes of the powerful onto the people.

 

[danny la rouge]

If you're asking me to predict what will happen, though, I imagine the political class will find it hard to justify going against the result of the referendum. (Despite it being advisory when they could have made it legislative if they'd wanted).

But that's just a guess.

 

[redsquirrel]

and the two most influential political defenders of this idea in modern times were both virulently anti-eu

Who where you thinking of? Benn?