Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[phildwyer]

If Brexit was abandoned does anyone here think the leave voters will take to the streets?

Some of them will--the far right, to be precise. It would be a shame if it was only them.

 

[pengaleng]

anyone else think it's hilarious that people think everyone who is an immigrant will be 'sent home' lol mostly old dears with not enough hobbies (read relatives)

 

[not-bono-ever]

No one is going to be sent home, whatever happens

 

[pengaleng]

I know but they are still gonna die soon

 

[Lord Camomile]

Yes they would. 100%.

Yup. Friend and I were talking about this last night and both felt that if we don't leave the EU then there will be riots. He used the term "civil war" which I think was possibly a bit far, but it will be nasty.

It's one of the main reasons I'm uncomfortable supporting any "2nd ref" or "find a loophole" movements - the fallout may well be even worse than an exit*. Plus it sets a dodgy-as-all-hell precedent.




*ill-informed speculation on my part, of course.

 

[chilango]

Some of them will--the far right, to be precise. It would be a shame if it was only them.

The far-right are already on the streets. Always have been.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

anyone else think it's hilarious that people think everyone who is an immigrant will be 'sent home' lol mostly old dears with not enough hobbies (read relatives)

It would be if those of racist bent were not using it as an excuse to abuse anyone they don't like the look of

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

Anyway, a new PM will be along soon and article 50 will be triggered and we shall leave the EU. Why are so many people in denial about this? It is what was voted for. And now having been voted for this is exactly what they have said they will do.

You can ignore Jeremy Hunt, everyone else always has done, the snivelling little weasel.

 

[phildwyer]

The far-right are already on the streets. Always have been.

But this time they'd have a legitimate cause, which would win them allies and fellow-travelers. Yet another reason why it would be foolish to attempt to ignore the result.

 

[chilango]

But this time they have a legitimate cause, which will win them allies and fellow-travelers. Yet another reason why it would be foolish to attempt to ignore the result.

Yeah.

 

[Idris2002]

But this time they'd have a legitimate cause, which would win them allies and fellow-travelers. Yet another reason why it would be foolish to attempt to ignore the result.

Good thing that the powers that be have been careful to shun foolishness, so far.

 

[pengaleng]

It would be if those of racist bent were not using it as an excuse to abuse anyone they don't like the look of

you misunderstand what I said.

 

[The39thStep]

Business as usual for the EU. Portugal failed to meet its 3% budget deficit target and looks like it will now be fined and have access to EU funds withdrawn. Left Bloc calls for referendum if there are sanctions.

 

[brogdale]

There is a real gap here. A lot of people are talking about this in terms of politics - in terms of personalities and parties when what's key here is the state and capital. The state manages the short-medium term interests of total capital as without such a function the immediate short-term competitive nature of individual capitals leads to ruin and the things required for its continued existence not happening (large scale infra-structure, education, circulation networks, political legitimacy etc). When the state fails to provide one/any number of these things, or acts against the plans of that total capital - both situations that exist today - you have a legitimation crisis from above. The trad legitimation crisis (from below) is when the w/c no longer trusts in the state to deliver its basic needs as a result of a substantive defeat by capital and the state not being able to reconcile the two. We now have a massive gap between capital and its state and the w/c and the state that is supposed to integrate them into capital. Whatever happens now is not going to be because an individual decides to do something. Looking at the politicians is looking in the wrong places.

Spot on. Precisely the locus of competing interests.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

you misunderstand what I said.

No I didn't.

 

[brogdale]

Business as usual for the EU. Portugal failed to meet its 3% budget deficit target and looks like it will now be fined and have access to EU funds withdrawn. Left Bloc calls for referendum if there are sanctions.

I assume they realise they'd have to do better than 61.31%?

 

[keybored]

They can trigger it whenever they want and as long as they don't they control the situation. They won't do it until they get the best deal that they can.

But negotiations can't even begin until after Article 50 is triggered.

 

[butchersapron]

But negotiations can't even begin until after Article 50 is triggered.

Of course they're happening right now. Just maybe not with who we are led to think.

 

[SpookyFrank]

anyone else think it's hilarious that people think everyone who is an immigrant will be 'sent home' lol mostly old dears with not enough hobbies (read relatives)

No I don't think it's hilarious. The kids I work with, mostly Romanian, have been shouted at in the street and told to fuck off home.

 

[weltweit]

I have just heard Angela "Speaking as a mother" Leadsom on Women's Hour saying that she does not want freedom of movement nor the single market.

 

[butchersapron]

I have just heard Angela "Speaking as a mother" Leadsom on Women's Hour saying that she does not want freedom of movement nor the single market.

What a leading (never heard of here actually) brexit campaigner saying that? On radio 4. Fancy.

 

[wheelie_bin]

A week or so before the referendum, I read an article that I can't find right now, which said some huge number (57% maybe) or leave voters felt that this result would not be respected. The article read as though they were silly conspiracy theorists. I know some of those leave voters, on Friday they were still saying "It's amazing, but I don't see that the politicians will allow this". I feel very fucking stupid, I genuinely thought the politicians would get behind any result, however much they dislike it. Now with all this chaos being caused by their lack of action and leadership I really feel they won't and that is what will cause the most damage to our country because yes there will be riots and yes this feeds the growth of the far right, which will damage our country for a generation or more. I'm disgusted, I'm sad and I'm waiting to find out what march to join to have democracy respected.

 

[chilango]

Somebody I was speaking to the other day reckoned that a Brexit vote would simply be ignored and there would be no withdrawal from the EU.

I could see that happening if the vote was narrow or the turnout was low or any other excuse there could be invalidate the mandate.

After all it's not like people would take to the streets over this.

Would they?

Was howled down with derision for posting this less than a month ago.

 

[butchersapron]

Was howled down with derision for posting this less than a month ago.

Yeah, but you followed it up with a 60%+ lead for remain...

 

[chilango]

Yeah, but you followed it up with a 60%+ lead for remain...

I know

I'm at a loss to see how this is all gonna pan out frankly....

 

[HoratioCuthbert]

It certainly appears that the political "leaders" are doing their best to make it look impossible.

Where's the option for a second referendum with another exit vote that nobody understands?

And we won't necessarily lose Scotland. 38% voted leave, some remainers will be torn between UK and EU, a large number don't want the Euro, oil is down in price, they'll see the rest of Britain eventually get moving towards an EFTA deal... I hope we don't lose them anyway, however friendly we may all stay afterwards.

Whilst I voted yes, I'd struggle this time to decide esp if it's an EFTA deal vs potentially joining the euro. However- and this may be down to having lots of "yes" friends- I appear to be in the minority on this point. But the sneering on Facebook last few days at thick racist little englanders has been so bad I've deactivated my account. I don't hold out much hope for future working class representation in Scotland when they are turning out to protest against people in communities they have never set foot in.

If Brexit was abandoned does anyone here think the leave voters will take to the streets?

I don't.

..and I bet the politicians don't either. That's what they'll bank on should they go ahead and bluff it out.

That said, I'd imagine UKIP would be rubbing their hands at the votes they'll get next election should this happen.

No. Last few days has been project fear turned up to 11, I think most would be happy for everything just to settle down....but yeah big boost for UKIP.

 

[brogdale]

I have just heard Angela "Speaking as a mother" Leadsom on Women's Hour saying that she does not want freedom of movement nor the single market.

Sounds like the tory faithful will have a choice presented to them.

 

[existentialist]

A week or so before the referendum, I read an article that I can't find right now, which said some huge number (57% maybe) or leave voters felt that this result would not be respected. The article read as though they were silly conspiracy theorists. I know some of those leave voters, on Friday they were still saying "It's amazing, but I don't see that the politicians will allow this". I feel very fucking stupid, I genuinely thought the politicians would get behind any result, however much they dislike it. Now with all this chaos being caused by their lack of action and leadership I really feel they won't and that is what will cause the most damage to our country because yes there will be riots and yes this feeds the growth of the far right, which will damage our country for a generation or more. I'm disgusted, I'm sad and I'm waiting to find out what march to join to have democracy respected.

I have to say, though, that there are some thing which just cannot be respected. And, to be frank, if someone told me (as they did) that their reason for wanting to vote Leave was any one (or more of) "I want to control immigration"/"We can manage on our own"/"Bring back the Spitfire"/"I want my country back", then I, too, would be having trouble respecting their decision.

I fully accept that, as a remain voter, the echo chamber I inhabit doesn't tend to have a lot of Leave voters in it - but there are still quite a few, and they seem to have been very short on reasoned, cogent arguments for getting out of Europe. Where they did, I could respect their views, even if I didn't agree with them. But the vast bulk seemed to me to be basing their decision on little more than "Waaaaah, don't wanna!".

So I didn't find myself overwhelmed with a desire to respect this position.

 

[tim]

But negotiations can't even begin until after Article 50 is triggered.

Says who?

 

[emanymton]

There is a real gap here. A lot of people are talking about this in terms of politics - in terms of personalities and parties when what's key here is the state and capital. The state manages the short-medium term interests of total capital as without such a function the immediate short-term competitive nature of individual capitals leads to ruin and the things required for its continued existence not happening (large scale infra-structure, education, circulation networks, political legitimacy etc). When the state fails to provide one/any number of these things, or acts against the plans of that total capital - both situations that exist today - you have a legitimation crisis from above. The trad legitimation crisis (from below) is when the w/c no longer trusts in the state to deliver its basic needs as a result of a substantive defeat by capital and the state not being able to reconcile the two. We now have a massive gap between capital and its state and the w/c and the state that is supposed to integrate them into capital. Whatever happens now is not going to be because an individual decides to do something. Looking at the politicians is looking in the wrong places.

How do you think it will pan out?
My current feeling (until I change my mind latter) is that we will 'leave' but on terms that keep things pretty much as they are. Doing otherwise would be too damaging to the 'political legitimacy' of the state. But with such a close vote maybe not?