coley
Well-Known Member
Thought this as soon as Cameron announced his resignation.
Is Brexit actually going to happen?
- Thread starter Kaka Tim
- Start date
Tbf, this would stand regardless of the referendum outcome.
Poot
My wife thinks I work too hard
I don't disagree with the theory but I'm a bit scared. I'm not as young as I was and I would worry about my foreign friends and neighbours who would inevitably end up worse off, there already seems to be plenty of local tension. I think that much of the anger would be misdirected.
stethoscope
Well-Known Member
Yes, I was intending to write regardless!
andysays
Love and solidarity
Two points
There's no reason, constitutional, practical or otherwise, why it has to take three months to elect a new leader of the Tory party and/or assemble a negotiating team. Three fucking months!!?!
All the business about informal talks or pre-negotiation negotiation ignores not only the fact that the other EU countries don't have to do any negotiating until Article 50 has been triggered, but also that any negotiations, even informal ones, have to be with negotiators actually able to speak for the British government. At the moments, no one is able to speak for the government, precisely because of Cameron's actions
Cameron's decision not to trigger Article 50 immediately (in clear contradiction of his suggested course of action before the referendum) and his vague unhurried suggestion that we should have a new PM by October, maybe, looks like a blatant attempt to avoid the situation created by his decision to hold a referendum.
I reckon (
) The Conservatives, along with all the other members and representatives of the ruling classes, will now do everything in their power to avoid accepting and following through with the decision for Brexit. This could lead to a real crisis in democracy, the effects of which could be even more significant (and dangerous, depending on your point of view and/or the way things unfold) than if they'd just accepted the decision and got on with it.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
Yes. But what the Scots as a whole have said and what the residents of Northern Ireland have said is they want to stay in Europe. Do you think the break up of the UK worth it?
andysays
Love and solidarity
I was thinking about putting a tenner on the Donald Tusk option, except even if I win I won't be able to collect
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Yeah, like the δῆμος who voted "Oxi"?
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
Don't think it will be outright ignoring but time not right etc then in 18 months someone saying the verdict expired
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Not forgetting 'radically changed circumstances', 'unforeseen threats to national interest', 'rapidly escalating geo-political crises' etc. etc.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
Yeh exactly so
All of the biggest crises that the EU has faced have just been put off long enough in the hope that they will just go away
gosub
~#
Potentially they could shell game article 50 using a general election. Only that wouldn't be 'feeling' a bit stupid. - it's a massive erosion of democracy and leverage. One thing is for sure for our politicians to get any influence back, they'd have to remove any chance of public consultation on the issue of EUrope both as is and on treaties moving forward.
coley
Well-Known Member
That's a given, if we back off from leaving the EU will screw us into the ground, they are outraged and angry at us but imagine the retribution if we tried to creep back in.
gosub
~#
Whatever is decided in the negotiation subsequent to article 50 being invoked
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Corbyn & capital respectively.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Sorry, my glib reply was not (100%) serious...well, the first part that is.
Flavour
hang the bankers
Capital will obviously survive this, and there are good opportunities here for Euro capital if it can take advantage of global insecurities in Britain - for a long time the UK has been seen as more stable than the Eurozone - a temporary blip in that status could actually benefit the Eurozone's centers of capital, much as I would like this to further damage the structural integrity of the EU, it could yet come out stronger as a result
not-bono-ever
meh
Lots of talk about hard choices
Result will be the soft option
Result will be the soft option
Kaka Tim
Half Arsed and Slapdash till I Die
The writer suggests a credible scenario - another General Election where labour run on a platform of offering a 2nd referendum - hence the desperation to ditch corbyn so a pro-EU, market orientated party can take over from the Tory brexiters.
chilango
Hypothetical Wanker
If Brexit was abandoned does anyone here think the leave voters will take to the streets?
I don't.
..and I bet the politicians don't either. That's what they'll bank on should they go ahead and bluff it out.
That said, I'd imagine UKIP would be rubbing their hands at the votes they'll get next election should this happen.
I don't.
..and I bet the politicians don't either. That's what they'll bank on should they go ahead and bluff it out.
That said, I'd imagine UKIP would be rubbing their hands at the votes they'll get next election should this happen.
gosub
~#
What the civil service has been leafing through while simultaneously trying to help the anti immigration lead Brexitiers through their homework. (though its probably been amended to include an Lichtenstein cul de sac) might stick with version the Adam Smith Institute borrowed from it.
From Comres
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
There is a real gap here. A lot of people are talking about this in terms of politics - in terms of personalities and parties when what's key here is the state and capital. The state manages the short-medium term interests of total capital as without such a function the immediate short-term competitive nature of individual capitals leads to ruin and the things required for its continued existence not happening (large scale infra-structure, education, circulation networks, political legitimacy etc). When the state fails to provide one/any number of these things, or acts against the plans of that total capital - both situations that exist today - you have a legitimation crisis from above. The trad legitimation crisis (from below) is when the w/c no longer trusts in the state to deliver its basic needs as a result of a substantive defeat by capital and the state not being able to reconcile the two. We now have a massive gap between capital and its state and the w/c and the state that is supposed to integrate them into capital. Whatever happens now is not going to be because an individual decides to do something. Looking at the politicians is looking in the wrong places.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
Yes they would. 100%.
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