Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[danny la rouge]

It's certainly not just you...

That comes as a relief.

 

[gosub]

 

[Pickman's model]

yeh but your little graphick misses out the initial choice which is whether to invoke article 50 in the first place. there is no chance of that happening before 8 september: and, frankly, people seem fairly confident a bill has to pass through parliament for the article to come into force. nothing can happen imo before 10 october - 3.5 months after the referendum

 

[Mr.Bishie]

And with May looking good for PM, they'll be a proper Tory U-Turn on Brexit I reckon.

 

[Raheem]

And with May looking good for PM, they'll be a proper Tory U-Turn on Brexit I reckon.

Looking good-ish, but not a shoo-in at this stage.

As I think I said above, I think there'll be a u-turn in any scenario. Come what May, if you catch what I did there with my drift. It's more about the logic of the thing and the fact that money talks louder than any referendum result than it is about which fake eurosceptic is at the controls.

 

[gosub]

Looking good-ish, but not a shoo-in at this stage.

As I think I said above, I think there'll be a u-turn in any scenario. Come what May, if you catch what I did there with my drift. It's more about the logic of the thing and the fact that money talks louder than any referendum result than it is about which fake eurosceptic is at the controls.

define "Looking good-ish" . Contempt of public will would be a fucking disaster, let alone all the knock on difficulties for European relations.

 

[Pickman's model]

And with May looking good for PM, they'll be a proper Tory U-Turn on Brexit I reckon.

there will be no u-turn, as people have pointed out that would be fatal. what i think there'll be is a 'not yet', 'great uncertainty', 'need to increase stability', 'we're sorting out our negotiating position', 'negotiations will begin', 'delayed again', 'after so long we no longer believe the result of the referendum held 18 months ago continues to represent the will of the british people'.

 

[Mr.Bishie]

That's still a slippery U-Turn though?

 

[Raheem]

define "Looking good-ish" . Contempt of public will would be a fucking disaster, let alone all the knock on difficulties for European relations.

Good-ish: She's currently ahead in polling but there's a while to go yet.

I think the next few years, if it takes that long, are about choosing between fucking disasters, and it's yet to be seen how much the public will notice, believe or care that it is being held in contempt (not that I'm saying it won't).

 

[Raheem]

That's still a slippery U-Turn though?

Bingo.

 

[Pickman's model]

That's still a slippery U-Turn though?

by no means, it is recognising that public opinion shifts and after 18 months would it really be right to take such a momentous step when an advisory plebiscite, which - let us not forget - only gave leave a small majority, represents but a snapshot of the public mood. it may be that before entering into substantive negotiations it is only right and proper the mood should be tested again.[/theresa may]
in addition it's not a u-turn if you never intended to do it in the first place.

 

[Pickman's model]

Bingo.

i would be more impressed if you were able to make your own points

 

[Kesher]

As Heseltine said recently regarding EU referendum result: "democracy is not static"

 

[Pickman's model]

As Heseltine said recently regarding EU referendum result: "democracy is not static"

quite so. and 18 months is long enough so that there wouldn't be a static shock from ignoring it.

 

[Raheem]

i would be more impressed if you were able to make your own points

Really? Fascinating.

 

[Pickman's model]

Really? Fascinating.

thank you for your input

 

[gosub]

Good-ish: She's currently ahead in polling but there's a while to go yet.

I think the next few years, if it takes that long, are about choosing between fucking disasters, and it's yet to be seen how much the public will notice, believe or care that it is being held in contempt (not that I'm saying it won't).

so what is it you think May will/won't do?

ETAsorry read youR bingo: So you think she'll stall for 18 months and then drop.
Well I suppose if she can get through the 18 months of 'events' it might look different But she'd be an idiot that way lies dreams of being the EU's Puerto Rico

 

[Raheem]

by no means, it is recognising that public opinion shifts and after 18 months would it really be right to take such a momentous step when an advisory plebiscite, which - let us not forget - only gave leave a small majority, represents but a snapshot of the public mood. it may be that before entering into substantive negotiations it is only right and proper the mood should be tested again.[/theresa may]
in addition it's not a u-turn if you never intended to do it in the first place.

May's current position is Brexit means Brexit, no second referendum etc etc. A u-turn accompanied by an explanation, or which you always intended to perform, is still a u-turn.

 

[Pickman's model]

May's current position is Brexit means Brexit, no second referendum etc etc. A u-turn accompanied by an explanation, or which you always intended to perform, is still a u-turn.

let's see what happens, because there's a lot can change: it's not like the tories have a great majority, and i wouldn't be surprised if there was an early general election.

 

[gosub]

let's see what happens, because there's a lot can change: it's not like the tories have a great majority, and i wouldn't be surprised if there was an early general election.

That more depends on what happens within Labour.

 

[Raheem]

so what is it you think May will/won't do?

ETAsorry read youR bingo: So you think she'll stall for 18 months and then drop.
Well I suppose if she can get through the 18 months of 'events' it might look different But she'd be an idiot that way lies dreams of being the EU's Puerto Rico

Puerto Rico might be an exaggeration (I'm only saying "might"), but yes, we do stand to gradually become a poorer and less influential country. However, as things stand, that process is only going to accelerate once A50 is triggered. The only realistic way out is to forget the whole thing. That might change in the detail (for example, if the other 27 agree at some point that A50 is reversible), but I think it's basically inescapable that that's what we will have to do. I don't think leadership elections or general elections will make much difference. It's a bigger issue than that. Delay, of what ever length is needed, may look silly from the point-of-view of economics, but some delay is probably going to be politically necessary, unless Theresa May's courage is greater than meets the eye.

 

[gosub]

Puerto Rico might be an exaggeration (I'm only saying "might"), but yes, we do stand to gradually become a poorer and less unfluential country. However, as things stand, that process is only going to accelerate once A50 is triggered. The only realistic way out is to forget the whole thing. That might change in the detail (for example, if the other 27 agree at some point that A50 is reversible), but I think it's basically inescapable that that's what we will have to do. I don't think leadership elections or general elections will make much difference. It's a bigger issue than that. Delay, of what ever length is needed, may look silly from the point-of-view of economics, but some delay is probably going to be politically necessary, unless Theresa May's courage is greater than meets the eye.

Standing on the path of least resistance, watching you drown.

 

[J Ed]

The EU already has a Puerto Rico, it's called Greece.

 

[coley]

Whey, it looks like May is likely to be the next PM, but she has to get the endorsement of the grassroots members, something that might be difficult if she starts backsliding on her " Brexit is Brexit" statement and her opponent her supporters will be looking at every word she utters looking for the chance to expose her as a 'backslider' and destroyer of democracy.
But I immediately (when he announced his 'timely' resignation) thought that The pig suckers blatant betrayal of his pre referendum commitments was designed to bring about this opportunity to fudge, delay and probably bring about a second referendum.

 

[Raheem]

She's not going to be planning to backslide during her leadership campaign. Next year, though, the general mood may be that backsliding is the right and proper thing to do. Or, it may be that she lets parliament decide, making out all the while that her view remains unchanged and her inability to pull the chain on A50 is a personal disappointment.

 

[coley]

She's not going to be planning to backslide during her leadership campaign. Next year, though, the general mood may be that backsliding is the right and proper thing to do. Or, it may be that she lets parliament decide, making out all the while that her view remains unchanged and her inability to pull the chain on A50 is a personal disappointment.

All very possible and much the same scenario I painted the day the result was announced, and a total disaster if she tries it.
The disgusting but relatively minor incidents of racism and extreme right wing triumphalist activity, instead of fading away, will rear their head and become permanently, aggressively mainstream.
The result has taken the steam out of the extreme right wing, and it needs to be taken forward in such a way that they remain marginalised and ridiculed.
A positive move would be for the disappointed remainers to just accept the new status quo and work together in achieving the best outcome for all of us here in the UK, rather than vent their disappointment and frustration by sneering at the majority.

 

[Raheem]

All very possible and much the same scenario I painted the day the result was announced, and a total disaster if she tries it.
The disgusting but relatively minor incidents of racism and extreme right wing triumphalist activity, instead of fading away, will rear their head and become permanently, aggressively mainstream.
The result has taken the steam out of the extreme right wing, and it needs to be taken forward in such a way that they remain marginalised and ridiculed.
A positive move would be for the disappointed remainers to just accept the new status quo and work together in achieving the best outcome for all of us here in the UK, rather than vent their disappointment and frustration by sneering at the majority.

Whatever happens, we're in for a tough time. Not leaving the EU is, I agree, only going to further aid and strengthen the far-right.

But you are misunderstanding if you think I'm sneering at anyone or I'm particularly calling for an anti-Brexit mobilisation, even though it is, of course, everyone's right to ignore being told to shut up. I think what will happen is already written, just because there's too much at stake for too many people with influence.

 

[coley]

Whatever happens, we're in for a tough time. Not leaving the EU is, I agree, only going to further aid and strengthen the far-right.

But you are misunderstanding if you think I'm sneering at anyone or I'm particularly calling for an anti-Brexit mobilisation, even though it is, of course, everyone's right to ignore being told to shut up. I think what will happen is already written, just because there's too much at stake for too many people with influence.

I totally apologise if you think I was directing my comments towards you, I certainly didn't intend that, but there is that seething anger amongst many disappointed remainders and it certainly has been seen
in the disparaging remarks directed against us in the leave camp!
Yours sincerely, Coley, uneducated northern thicko, racist xenophobic, couldn't care less about they younger generation, etc etc
TBF, one description fits, want to guess?

 

[Obediah Marsh]

The "wait 18 months" stratagem will only work if we have peace and quiet internationally. I hope Syria settles down and the turmoil of last year wont repeat itself.

 

[Louis MacNeice]

I totally apologise if you think I was directing my comments towards you, I certainly didn't intend that, but there is that seething anger amongst many disappointed remainders and it certainly has been seen
in the disparaging remarks directed against us in the leave camp!
Yours sincerely, Coley, uneducated northern thicko, racist xenophobic, couldn't care less about they younger generation, etc etc
TBF, one description fits, want to guess?

Northern.

Cheers - Louis MacNeice