Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[Kaka Tim]

thread bump as im interested in seeing what people think now we're a few months on.
May signalling she was going for hard brexit was a bit of a surprise - and a major shock for a lot of the upper echelons of finance, politics and the civil service. The resulting collapse in the value in sterling is a wake up call that brexit could lead to massive economic upheavals. The complexities, dangers and difficulties of leaving the EU are becoming ever more apparent - I think the push to overturn the referendum result or hold another one will only become stronger - but the tories have painted themselves into a corner. The whole thing is an unparalleled cluster fuck.

 

[Fez909]

Prevent Brexit or face political fallout, German economists warn EU

 

[Chz]

At the time, I gave it a 70/30 chance of happening. I'd say it's more 80/20 now, since May seems gung-ho and there's no-one to stop her. The only reason I still give it a 20% chance of not happening is because the economy might annihilate itself before we leave.

I voted for complete independence above, but what I really think will happen is a transitional period of Norwegian style trade while everything gets sorted out eventually leading to a complete break. The reason being that the populace deems freedom of movement to be unacceptable. The anti-EU feelings will not end until the borders are shut.

 

[killer b]

Not even then - closed borders are no spur to warmer neighbourly relations.

 

[killer b]

And what are they going to do once the border with the EU is shut, and it has almost no impact on the numbers of immigrants?

 

[Chz]

And what are they going to do once the border with the EU is shut, and it has almost no impact on the numbers of immigrants?

Well the remainers get to laugh for a bit, and then cry because it won't change anything.
The leavers will just continue to be angry, but they'll have to blame their own government for a change. I'm still surprised that no-one pointed out at any time in the campaign that far more people immigrate to the UK from outside the EU...

 

[killer b]

they did

 

[Poi E]

And what are they going to do once the border with the EU is shut, and it has almost no impact on the numbers of immigrants?

Pogroms? Start with those who don't wear a poppy.

 

[killer b]

Pogroms? Start with those who don't wear a poppy.

I think if you look at the actions and rhetoric of those in power over the past few years (but particularly this year), you can only conclude that there's a few possible things going on: either 1) they're fucking idiots and don't understand what they're messing with, 2) It's some desperate cowardly balancing act, while waiting for some magic solution to present itself, or 3) this is actually what they want to happen. When you consider that this government - as well at those across Europe - are perfectly happy to bomb the shit out of the middle east, let refugees drown, turn them back at borders into the weapons of their persuers, allow them to live in subhuman conditions in refugee camps and the like, why would they baulk at whipping up anti-immigrant feeling here to shore up their own support?

There has to be a point where we stop giving them the benefit of the doubt and assuming it's idiocy or cowardice.

 

[Pickman's model]

Pogroms? Start with those who don't wear a poppy.

 

[Pickman's model]

The reason being that the populace deems freedom of movement to be unacceptable

does it? last i saw about half the voting electorate said they were quite happy with it.

 

[pengaleng]

no.

 

[DotCommunist]

was trying to think of a word that would fall between hard and soft and all that comes to mind is semi. Semi-brexit.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

I voted for complete independence above, but what I really think will happen is a transitional period of Norwegian style trade while everything gets sorted out eventually leading to a complete break. The reason being that the populace deems freedom of movement to be unacceptable. The anti-EU feelings will not end until the borders are shut.

Can you show your workings on that? 48 per cent voted in a way that would definitely have led to a continuation of freedom of movement. 52 per cent voted in a way that might lead to its end, but also might not - it is mistaken to think that all those 52 per cent were voting to end freedom of movement - no doubt many were, possibly even most, but by no means all, and by no means the 95 per cent of them that would be required to make your statement tenable.

 

[Raheem]

was trying to think of a word that would fall between hard and soft and all that comes to mind is semi. Semi-brexit.

Pliable? Bendy?

 

[J Ed]

was trying to think of a word that would fall between hard and soft and all that comes to mind is semi. Semi-brexit.

Flacid-Brexit

 

[not-bono-ever]

sexit

 

[Wilf]

thread bump as im interested in seeing what people think now we're a few months on.
May signalling she was going for hard brexit was a bit of a surprise - and a major shock for a lot of the upper echelons of finance, politics and the civil service. The resulting collapse in the value in sterling is a wake up call that brexit could lead to massive economic upheavals. The complexities, dangers and difficulties of leaving the EU are becoming ever more apparent - I think the push to overturn the referendum result or hold another one will only become stronger - but the tories have painted themselves into a corner. The whole thing is an unparalleled cluster fuck.

May's position is certainly surprising, I don't know whether to characterise it as pure self interest or not. If she'd gone for a soft brexit - the thing she almost certainly believes in as the next best option to remaining - she could have got a majority for it in the commons. However she would now be the one facing the ire of ukip, daily mail, tory right etc. I suppose ultimately she's doing a balancing act between the single market and freedom of movement, with one eye on what will actually work in policy terms, but a, erm, 'bigger eye' on how it works for her as leader/PM.

But in terms of it not happening, the only route is surely the Tories losing a general election before article 50 is triggered (either she calls an election in the next few weeks - unlikely - or the whole thing drags out for 4 more years without it being triggered - equally unlikely). Labour (or Lab + Nats + Pissyellows) would have to have gone into such an election offering a 2nd referendum - very unlikely - and would then have to win the election - 100% impossible given the state of the Labour Party at the moment). So, we have a PM who will end up driving through the very thing she doesn't really want. It's a clusterfuck alright, but the judges intervention may well have actually shored up the chances of a hard brexit.

 

[Pickman's model]

The whole thing is an unparalleled cluster fuck.

there speaks someone who has forgotten libya and iraq.

 

[Chz]

Can you show your workings on that? 48 per cent voted in a way that would definitely have led to a continuation of freedom of movement. 52 per cent voted in a way that might lead to its end, but also might not - it is mistaken to think that all those 52 per cent were voting to end freedom of movement - no doubt many were, possibly even most, but by no means all, and by no means the 95 per cent of them that would be required to make your statement tenable.

It doesn't need to be a majority. Or are you unaware of the way politics has worked in this country for the last... forever? It doesn't matter if the actual majority think that immigration is kinda okay, but they're not really fussed either way because most of them didn't vote anyhow. What matters is the extraordinarily loud people who have an extreme view either way. And the anti-immigration front have a sizeable lead there.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

It doesn't need to be a majority. Or are you unaware of the way politics has worked in this country for the last... forever? It doesn't matter if the actual majority think that immigration is kinda okay, but they're not really fussed either way because most of them didn't vote anyhow. What matters is the extraordinarily loud people who have an extreme view either way. And the anti-immigration front have a sizeable lead there.

Most people did vote. The turnout is one thing you can't quibble with. But the vote was not about limiting immigration. People voting for that were doing so only indirectly - voting for a thing that might then allow this other thing that they wanted. I don't doubt that many or probably most of the leave voters voted with immigration at or very near the top of their list of concerns. It's not just about how vocal such people are now, but how such people, including the likes of Farage and rags like the Mail and Express, are falsely claiming that limiting immigration is 'the will of the British people'. And May is following their lead at the moment, as this is what is electorally most valuable to her and the tories (who also don't need a majority to vote for them to be returned to power).

 

[SaskiaJayne]

If places like Clacton are mirrored throughout the UK & I suspect they are then most did vote leave to stop immigration. These are people who decades ago were saying 'kick out the Pakis' & they have never changed. You cannot reason with these people. They believe immigrants come here to fiddle the system, commit crime & so on. These are mostly not evil, shaven headed BNP types they are normal middle aged mild mannered working people & pensioners. They will always have voted Tory even in '97 & more lately most will have voted UKIP.

The are impervious to counter argument. You can give them statistics that easily prove all their reasoning is totally incorrect. They just smile & shake their heads. I think people who live more cosmopolitan lives in cities & so on have no idea people like this exist. They are just the most normal mundane people you could hope to meet. This is why the result was such a shock to the political elite. That such normal folk could hold such entrenched virulently racist views did not even occur to them.

The government is truly fucked. The leave politicians all said vote leave & develop trade with the rest of the world & in India today they are learning that there are going to be no trade deals without a relaxation of immigration rules for Indian citizens coming to UK. This is just the start. They will find this whoever in the world they try to do trade deals with.

 

[bimble]

Something that adds to my feeling that no real brexiting will actually happen, and that May is just doing a performance to appease the DM/ ukip is the decision she announced to go and challenge the recent high court ruling at the Supreme Court. . Why do this? Why not just get on with it. The chances of the high court finding a different answer seems really small, it doesn't seem to make any sense unless she's just trying to buy time and carry on appearing to be the brexit means brexit champion.

 

[pocketscience]

The whole thing could end up being like Ukraine in reverse. Endless power struggles, regime changes, break away states, civil war and general apocalypse all within the process of trying to exit the Eu rather than join it.

/Grim monday morning blues

 

[Kaka Tim]

The whole thing could end up being like Ukraine in reverse. Endless power struggles, regime changes, break away states, civil war and general apocalypse all within the process of trying to exit the Eu rather than join it.

/Grim monday morning blues

with france anexing scotland maybe.

 

[Pickman's model]

If places like Clacton are mirrored throughout the UK & I suspect they are then most did vote leave to stop immigration. These are people who decades ago were saying 'kick out the Pakis' & they have never changed. You cannot reason with these people. They believe immigrants come here to fiddle the system, commit crime & so on. These are mostly not evil, shaven headed BNP types they are normal middle aged mild mannered working people & pensioners. They will always have voted Tory even in '97 & more lately most will have voted UKIP.

17m people voted to leave. no more than about 4m people have voted UKIP.

 

[Pickman's model]

with france anexing scotland maybe.

The auld alliance renewed

 

[Kaka Tim]

17m people voted to leave. no more than about 4m people have voted UKIP.

yeah but - clacton.

 

[Kaka Tim]

The auld alliance renewed

which would probably mean Nicola Sturgeon would have to marry Nicolas Sarkozy or something.

 

[bimble]

It's not just about how vocal such people are now, but how such people, including the likes of Farage and rags like the Mail and Express, are falsely claiming that limiting immigration is 'the will of the British people'. And May is following their lead at the moment, as this is what is electorally most valuable to her and the tories (who also don't need a majority to vote for them to be returned to power).

As perfectly exemplified in todays DM:

and the commentators below the line are lapping it up, full of enthusiastic support for May.