You used to think those dark governments from films like Starship Troopers were just the preserve of sci-fi but I'm starting to wonder if that's the way the US could be heading. A Supreme Court stacked to favour the right, politicians who get away with everything and have no issue with using their powers to pardon anything, an incoming president probably hell-bent on getting even. Trump has made it clear that the justice system is in his gunsights and who is to say that the voting system might not be so too given his grievances about his defeat by Biden. Is even doing away with the two-term rule off the cards? With the Republicans fully on the lunatic side of the right and with control of all the levers of power is that dark future really just the preserve of fantasy?
Is America heading towards dictatorship?
- Thread starter nightowl
- Start date
emanymton
A cat politely sat on the flaming gardener.
It was never just fantasy anyway as there have always been plenty of real world examples, just look at Russia.
And Russia is where I think the US is heading, but it will take more than 4 years, maybe 8 or 12 depending on how things pan out.
Although if we are taking sci-fi. Babylon 5 is still the best warning. A right ring populist whips up Xenophobia while positioning loyal people in key positions then launches a coup to take complete control of the Earth government.
And Russia is where I think the US is heading, but it will take more than 4 years, maybe 8 or 12 depending on how things pan out.
Although if we are taking sci-fi. Babylon 5 is still the best warning. A right ring populist whips up Xenophobia while positioning loyal people in key positions then launches a coup to take complete control of the Earth government.
kebabking
Not a Girly Swot, but I like them....
Personally, I'd be putting moving, or just travelling, to the US, alongside moving to China, or NK, or Russia in the fucking dumb ideas bucket.
I genuinely think that US society has no grasp whatsoever about what is about to happen to it - I think it has had it's last meaningful Presidential election for well over a decade, and that the scale of things like disenfranchisement, de facto abolition of rule of law, destruction of de facto political freedoms and all the other norms of ademocratic/liberal political system is going to rival that seen in Germany between 1933 and 1939.
In fact I would be surprised if internment camps for political/legal enemies of Trump/his successor aren't a thing by 2028 - the only light in this darkest of timelines will be the solid possibility that many of those who said that Harris was sufficiently poor on 'left' issues that voting for her/against Trump wasn't worth getting out of bed for, will get to sample the joys of a Nebraskan winter from behind barbed wire.
If I was Biden, or Harris, or any publicly known Democrat - or people like Liz Cheney or Mitt Romney on the Republican side - I'd genuinely be looking at places I might get political asylum.
I genuinely think that US society has no grasp whatsoever about what is about to happen to it - I think it has had it's last meaningful Presidential election for well over a decade, and that the scale of things like disenfranchisement, de facto abolition of rule of law, destruction of de facto political freedoms and all the other norms of ademocratic/liberal political system is going to rival that seen in Germany between 1933 and 1939.
In fact I would be surprised if internment camps for political/legal enemies of Trump/his successor aren't a thing by 2028 - the only light in this darkest of timelines will be the solid possibility that many of those who said that Harris was sufficiently poor on 'left' issues that voting for her/against Trump wasn't worth getting out of bed for, will get to sample the joys of a Nebraskan winter from behind barbed wire.
If I was Biden, or Harris, or any publicly known Democrat - or people like Liz Cheney or Mitt Romney on the Republican side - I'd genuinely be looking at places I might get political asylum.
hitmouse
music obfuscation technology
Never thought of you as being a massive Putin/Jong Un apologist, do you actually reckon that going to Disneyland for a week is comparable to going to Russia or NK in the risk stakes?
Again, old ground here, but does this venom only apply to non-voters from swing states whose potential votes would've actually mattered, or do you also extend this to non-voters in states that Harris won comfortably?
It is, of course, still the case that Guantanamo Bay remains open, there are still detention centers being used to detain migrants, and so on, but those are good democratic internment camps so that's fine I suppose.
Brainaddict
slight system overdrive
I don't think it will necessarily be clearcut whether it becomes a dictatorship or not. There will be lots of rump institutions that will be claimed to show it isn't a dictatorship. The Democrats will continue to pretend to provide opposition etc.
It's also only one of several dark possibilities. I think civil war has become increasingly likely, though more likely to start under a 'centrist' leadership than far right, so not in Trump's term.
It's also only one of several dark possibilities. I think civil war has become increasingly likely, though more likely to start under a 'centrist' leadership than far right, so not in Trump's term.
krtek a houby
Merry Xmas!
It's increasingly looking that way. "It couldn't happen here" no longer applies, imho.
The idea of coming after Trump's enemies, as proposed by Kash Patel is extremely worrying. Not to mention mass deportations and threats from the former ICE guy (sorry, forgotten his name) and Hegseth's wanting women and LGBT out of the military.
The idea of coming after Trump's enemies, as proposed by Kash Patel is extremely worrying. Not to mention mass deportations and threats from the former ICE guy (sorry, forgotten his name) and Hegseth's wanting women and LGBT out of the military.
hitmouse
music obfuscation technology
Also, it seems obvious to me that if you think there's any possibility of a dictatorship, the logical conclusion is that the institutions through which that dictatorship will be implemented should be sabotaged and delegitimsed as fast and as extensively as possible. Is that a majority view?
The39thStep
Urban critical thinker
Hopefully, the EU will take sanctions against them
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
Trump was a wannabe dictator last time and the US's institutions just about held out against him.
This time? We'll see. I think just as likely is that his administration will quickly descend into chaos due to a combination of incompetence, greed and state push-back.
He probably only has two years to destroy things. I predict that he will lose his trifecta in the mid-terms.
This time? We'll see. I think just as likely is that his administration will quickly descend into chaos due to a combination of incompetence, greed and state push-back.
He probably only has two years to destroy things. I predict that he will lose his trifecta in the mid-terms.
emanymton
A cat politely sat on the flaming gardener.
Overall while things are clearly going to be bad, I don't think things will be as bad over the next 4 years as their claims would suggest.
They are not particularly unified and there is a lot of stupidity and incompetence, so while they will do massive damage, there are some limits. There will be grand claims but they will vastly overstate what has actually been achieved.
We can already see this with Trump claiming he spoke to the president of Mexico after he threatened tariffs and she agrees to stop migration, while she says she said no such thing. So no need for the tariffs he promised now as he won.
It's quite possible we won't see any significant increase in deportations either. Juts a few well publicised raids and lots of bullshit claims.
Some of what they are promising will go through more or less as claimed, but a lot won't.
But reality and truth don't matter anymore so he won't suffer any consequences, his voters will denny it or blame the government, and to them the government is something separate from Trump. So that's why the next election will possibly be at least as important as this one. If the dems loose again (and I think they will), then they are done. The real question is what happens if they win? Even if the are able to take office, the direction of travel is set and I don't see them winning again 4 years later or ever again after that.
They are not particularly unified and there is a lot of stupidity and incompetence, so while they will do massive damage, there are some limits. There will be grand claims but they will vastly overstate what has actually been achieved.
We can already see this with Trump claiming he spoke to the president of Mexico after he threatened tariffs and she agrees to stop migration, while she says she said no such thing. So no need for the tariffs he promised now as he won.
It's quite possible we won't see any significant increase in deportations either. Juts a few well publicised raids and lots of bullshit claims.
Some of what they are promising will go through more or less as claimed, but a lot won't.
But reality and truth don't matter anymore so he won't suffer any consequences, his voters will denny it or blame the government, and to them the government is something separate from Trump. So that's why the next election will possibly be at least as important as this one. If the dems loose again (and I think they will), then they are done. The real question is what happens if they win? Even if the are able to take office, the direction of travel is set and I don't see them winning again 4 years later or ever again after that.
emanymton
A cat politely sat on the flaming gardener.
These same institutions are also what stands in the way of a dictatorship, so that could help them, delegitimsing those institutions is exactly what the right has been doing.
So fucked either way I think.
DotCommunist
So many particulars. So many questions.
then every man must stand behind the men behind the wire.
ska invita
back on the other side
In this book How to Lose a Country: The Seven Steps from Democracy to Dictatorship by Turkish journalist Ece Temelkuran she sets out seven steps based on her experience of Turkish politics
- The Cult of Personality: This is the first step in the transition to dictatorship. It involves the creation of a leader with a larger-than-life persona. This leader becomes central to the nation's identity, with their image and ideas promoted everywhere, often with the help of media manipulation and populist rhetoric.
- The Demonization of the "Other": In this stage, the leader and their supporters create a clear distinction between "us" and "them." "The other" is often defined as a threat or enemy to the state. This otherness can be based on ideology, religion, ethnicity, or even political opposition, with the goal of creating fear and division in society.
- The Elimination of Checks and Balances: This step involves dismantling democratic institutions that are designed to limit the power of the leader. Independent judiciary, free media, and civil society organizations are targeted, often under the guise of national security or protecting the people from external or internal threats.
- The Erosion of Trust in Institutions: Trust in democratic institutions, including the legal system, media, and other pillars of society, is systematically eroded. This is often achieved by spreading misinformation, undermining the credibility of independent institutions, and stoking doubt about their legitimacy.
- The Weaponization of Fear: Fear is used as a tool to control the population. This might involve exaggerated or fabricated threats, both real and imagined, which are presented as dangerous to national security or cultural identity. The leader promises to protect citizens from these threats, but at the cost of individual freedoms.
- The Consolidation of Power: The leader consolidates their power by gaining control over the government, military, and key institutions. This is often achieved through strategic alliances, purges of opposition figures, and constitutional changes that weaken checks on executive power.
- The Suppression of Dissent: The final step is the silencing of any form of opposition, whether political, social, or media-based. Dissenters are labeled as traitors or enemies of the state, and legal, economic, or even physical retribution may be used to suppress any resistance.
The39thStep
Urban critical thinker
Pleasing to note that the UK with Starmer as leader falls at step one
hitmouse
music obfuscation technology
These two do take me back to the contradiction mentioned above. The Supreme Court, the military, ICE, Homeland Security and the police are the institutions through which any dictatorship or authoritarian shift will be enacted, so the more trust in them can be eroded the better imo.
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
There is also the question of state autonomy. Various states will push back. They did last time, when states like California took over responsibility for the environment legislation that Trump tore up. Trump has championed state autonomy when it has suited him (eg with abortion) but that cuts both ways.
The US is not necessarily as easy to centralise as Turkey. Another difference there is that Turkey has an internal enemy that Erdogan can demonise and use to unite the armed forces on his side - the Kurds.
Griff
Feeding the foxes
In this day and age, that's the easy part.
ska invita
back on the other side
Then there's what does US capital want? Clearly a substantial part of US capital is on board with Trumpism and wants to go further...other key capitalists are keeping head down to carry favour with the king. Democrats raised something like a billion $$$s this last election.... I imagine a substantial part of this class isn't that keen for dictatorship, but then again they're not seemingly capable of doing much about it judging by the last Democratic campaign.
Yes there's a contradiction which has nuance there - DOGE claim desire to destroy substantial elements of the state, but other elements are essential for maintaining control... will have to wait and see what the reality is of all this
Yes there's a contradiction which has nuance there - DOGE claim desire to destroy substantial elements of the state, but other elements are essential for maintaining control... will have to wait and see what the reality is of all this
hitmouse
music obfuscation technology
Yeah, it will be interesting to see what happens if things reach a point where big capital feels the need to "Truss" Trump.
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
Large parts of capital will be very unimpressed by the prospect of tariffs. Even slashing public spending isn't in capital's interests necessarily - they want infrastructure maintained.
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
As I said, I predict chaos. Probably arriving quite quickly.
emanymton
A cat politely sat on the flaming gardener.
As with brexit capital will be spilt. There will be sections that think Trump will benefit them so back him and ones that think he will hurt them so oppose him. Of those that back him some will simply be wrong about him benefiting them, because they don't necessarily understand what is in their own best interests. He will also have supporters who know he will hurt them economically, but are ideologically committed to other parts of his agenda.
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
Thing is that they are talking crap about this and won't deliver what Musk boasts they will deliver. Not even close. On World Service, they did a fact-check thing on federal spending. About two-thirds of it is mandatory spending on things like pensions and health care for the elderly/veterans. He'll have a fight on his hands cutting those. Of the discretionary spending, a big chunk of that is the military. And the rest is interest payments on existing debt.
Then there are the tax cuts that Trump himself brought in, which reduced govt revenue substantially.
It's bollocks, basically. He says he'll cut 2 trillion. He's unlikely to be able to cut even a tenth of that amount.
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littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
That's a fair point. 'Capital' isn't one homogeneous thing of course, as emanymton points out (writing that name, I realise I've never actually parsed it before: ema-nym-ton!), but there will be resistance to anti-free trade measures. How effective that resistance will be, who knows?
emanymton
A cat politely sat on the flaming gardener.
Yep
Promise big, then deliver small and claim it was huge. That will be the pattern.
Still going to fuck a lot of things up though.
Flavour
hang the bankers
I know it's quite different but "illegal immigrants" have been filling a similar role in US politics for a while
hitmouse
music obfuscation technology
Well, I mean, on one hand yeah, the world is a big and very complicated place which is why making firm predictions is largely a mug's game anyway. On the other hand, as I've said, look at Truss - much as I'd like to claim it was otherwise, I don't think it was organised working-class resistance that cut her reign short, I think that was the other lot.
ETA: Or Syriza, for a somewhat different example.
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