Iran

[Dogsauce]

What if it's possible to oppose wars where lots of ordinary people are brutalised and killed while also recognising the governments of said state participants are cunts who do awful things all of the time

A particularly shit thing is that the threat of war tends to empower the ‘hard line’ elements in the regime. The US kicking doors down in neighbouring countries in the years following the 11th Sept attacks gave the religious right a boost and pushed back more liberal elements that were organising prior to this (a young population seduced by western lifestyles). A potential generation of change put in the bin.

 

[likesfish]

You don't have the slightest fucking clue how these things work. The Romeo driver doesn't just get to light up an Iranian gunboat with a Hellfire just like that.

Not since they mistook an Airbus for an F14

 

[TopCat]

Not since they mistook an Airbus for an F14

Innit.

 

[TopCat]

Though mistook is still up for debate.

 

[elbows]

Even allowing for the fucknuttery of Trump, the following words are not very consistent with the USA clearly looking for any excuse to escalate matter.

Speaking at the White House, he called the drone's downing a "new fly in the ointment".

Mr Trump said it was "documented" that the unmanned drone had been over international waters and not in Iranian airspace.

"I think probably Iran made a mistake - I would imagine it was a general or somebody that made a mistake in shooting that drone down," he said.

"It could have been somebody who was loose and stupid," he added.

Drone downing may have been accidental, says Trump

I lost track of how many threads there were in the past that involved people anticipating war with Iran, every time there was some new incident or provocation or deterioration in relations.

I never rule out the possibility of war, but I do not jump to those conclusions, especially when it comes to Iran and a particular timeframe. I would appeal to people in this thread who want to follow the Iraq template to at least study Iran and its capabilities a bit more. Have a good read about the Iran-Iraq war. look at the size of Iran, its geography, and the size and demographics of its population. Consider its various influences and proxy forces and military capabilities. Its even got its own aerospace industry, although that was originally from necessity due to long-term sanctions that made it hard for them to get parts for a lot of the stuff that was supplied to Iran by the USA before its revolution.

I dont want to overstate Irans capabilities, but its certainly no Iraq.

 

[vanya]

Michael Scheuer, former head of the CIA's Bin Laden unit, has said that Iran has a terrorist network in Canada and the Caribbean, far more powerful than anything Al Qaeda has, and although they won't use it unless we attack them they will use it if we do.

 

[gosub]

Even allowing for the fucknuttery of Trump, the following words are not very consistent with the USA clearly looking for any excuse to escalate matter.



Drone downing may have been accidental, says Trump

I lost track of how many threads there were in the past that involved people anticipating war with Iran, every time there was some new incident or provocation or deterioration in relations.

I never rule out the possibility of war, but I do not jump to those conclusions, especially when it comes to Iran and a particular timeframe. I would appeal to people in this thread who want to follow the Iraq template to at least study Iran and its capabilities a bit more. Have a good read about the Iran-Iraq war. look at the size of Iran, its geography, and the size and demographics of its population. Consider its various influences and proxy forces and military capabilities. Its even got its own aerospace industry, although that was originally from necessity due to long-term sanctions that made it hard for them to get parts for a lot of the stuff that was supplied to Iran by the USA before its revolution.

I dont want to overstate Irans capabilities, but its certainly no Iraq.

Escalating from blowing things up?...Blowing things up ib a way that cause loss of life , would be escalation, and nuts

 

[teqniq]

Even allowing for the fucknuttery of Trump, the following words are not very consistent with the USA clearly looking for any excuse to escalate matter.



Drone downing may have been accidental, says Trump

....

But it wasn't

 

[kebabking]

But it wasn't

View attachment 174797

Given than an MQ-4 Triton doesn't have a 'stealth mode' (and if it did, how did the Iranians know where it was, and where and when it took off?), how would you evaluate the credibility of that tweet?

Go on, compare pictures of an RQ-4 with pictures of something like an RQ-170, or B-2, which are stealthy, and tell us if you think it looks like something that doesn't have the radar cross section of the Moon...

 

[teqniq]

i am not vouching for the credibility of it. Just posting it because the tweet is from the Iranian foreign minister claiming responsibility, which kinda scuppers Trump's statement.

 

[friedaweed]

But it wasn't

View attachment 174797

That looks a bit like a child's painting of this one that flies over our house twice a day.

 

[Don Troooomp]

You don't have the slightest fucking clue how these things work. The Romeo driver doesn't just get to light up an Iranian gunboat with a Hellfire just like that.

I should have edited the post above that one to add the quoted line. It was about the mine, not the US navy's ability to shoot at Iranians

 

[Don Troooomp]

Michael Scheuer, former head of the CIA's Bin Laden unit, has said that Iran has a terrorist network in Canada and the Caribbean, far more powerful than anything Al Qaeda has, and although they won't use it unless we attack them they will use it if we do.

Q - What' the difference between a justified military attack against an aggressor and a terrorist attacking innocents?

A - How good your propaganda is.

Iran has no serious ability to attack US targets so, in the event of a US invasion of their country, Iran would be justified in using a network to attack the US.
However, I could not support them attacking civilian targets but, if they stuck to soft military targets, I don't see a problem and I wouldn't brand them terrorists.

 

[Don Troooomp]

Innit.

Though mistook is still up for debate.

Not really. The US shot down a civilian airliner, claimed a load of lies, but did nothing against the navy officers that committed massmurder.
The only reason there's any question mark over this is the US simply lied, continue to lie, and do nothing to punish their criminals.

 

[elbows]

But it wasn't

Well, thats a big chunk of my point, Trump was downplaying it.

 

[mauvais]

Given than an MQ-4 Triton doesn't have a 'stealth mode' (and if it did, how did the Iranians know where it was, and where and when it took off?), how would you evaluate the credibility of that tweet?

'Stealth mode' could be anything, e.g. turning off IFF. Trying to extrapolate from tweets is a fool's errand.

 

[Don Troooomp]

Seems Trump authorised attacks on Iran, then pulled back when aircraft were in the air.
If that isn't heading to war, or at least a massive threat, what is?

 

[elbows]

I never said there were no massive threats. But throw away your crude templates.

 

[elbows]

And escalation is always a very real risk in these situations. My point really has been that a war with Iran wouldnt be like other recent wars that people think of that involved the USA, and that the USA are at least somewhat reticent about actually starting it. If they were looking to use any excuse to start one, it would already have started. But this is not much of a guide to what happens next.

 

[extra dry]

Hope that the mess in the u.s gets sorted soon

 

[elbows]

Trumps pullback will also provide us with a look at another phenomenon that does not match the Iraq template.

Because now we will end up seeing rather revealing language from certain media, language that may leave at least certain paragraphs looking keener on war with Iran than Trump is. The media are often part of the momentum towards war, they are used to the role they play in the tried and tested routines that precede and then announce war or military action. Even in a war such as the Iraq one, where divisions within elite groups over the war were very much reflected in the media, the media overall still did its bit. But Trump is upsetting their rhythm when it comes to Iran, even when they acknowledge the difficulties and the limited options he has when it comes to Iran, they dont sound happy about his failure to utilise deadly muscle.

An example I just saw:

President Donald Trump weighs war or peace amid Iran crisis - CNNPolitics

More broadly, pulling back from an attack will not go unobserved by America's adversaries who may interpret it as a spur to push Trump further than they might have before. He has also handed a victory to a US enemy -- Iran -- by showing that it could shoot down a sophisticated $110 million military asset with impunity. The move may mean that Iran feels it has latitude to move again against US interests -- but may escape retaliation by staying short of Trump's new red line.

His trashing of truth and an amateurish public relations effort to build a case against Iran may undermine his chances of selling potentially dangerous action to the American people.

 

[elbows]

That last bit did have a certain parallel to the media with regards Iraq though - media being pissed off with the low quality of the propaganda they had to work with!

 

[Don Troooomp]

That last bit did have a certain parallel to the media with regards Iraq though - media being pissed off with the low quality of the propaganda they had to work with!

Those opposed to war have another possible advantage - most of the media have been attacked by Trump so, with a bit of luck, they'll use column inches to point out all his fuck ups and dithering.

 

[not-bono-ever]

As with the DPRK, if Khemeni said he wanted to meet with Trump, the whole thing would be put on the backburner. Trump is desperate for his ego to be boosted. It is unlikely to happen but...

 

[petee]

Hope that the mess in the u.s gets sorted soon

so do we.

 

[Dogsauce]

It’s possible that it crossed into Iranian airspace, but the point of interception was outside of this. Not sure how this would sit as a justification for action.

There’s been a long history of contentious claims about airspace violations, lack of independent data makes it hard to resolve.

 

[Don Troooomp]

It’s possible that it crossed into Iranian airspace

If the US is saying, maybe, possibly, but not absolutely, it very probably did enter Iranian airspace.
They generally admit nothing, even when they're obviously lying, so admitting the possibility very likely means they did it.

 

[agricola]

a week ago:

Corbyn branded 'pathetic' over Iran comments

today:

Foreign Office minister to visit Iran to call for 'urgent de-escalation'

 

[extra dry]

You can't trust a politician to tell if it raining, or they are just spitting on you.

 

[extra dry]

I actually felt so pissed I was going to troll the POS.,only one hundred and fifty dead, what only! Thats 350$million robot worth 450 civilains and non combatnts minimum.

I feel ill just thinking of the madness hovering over nuclear weapons.