Urban75 Home About Offline BrixtonBuzz Contact

Iran

I thought on hearing the news yesterday, that it was too much of a coincidence this plane crashed soon after Iran's attack.

(((poor buggers)))
 
Riklet said:
Whats the chance a missle could have caused an engine fire and maybe knocked out the coms systems, causing such panic that there was no time to do anything other than try and fly the plane back?
Click to expand...

It's theoretically possible, but the damage required to close, instantly, all the different communications systems - and there are many, most of them with nothing to do with the crew - looks a lot like the same amount of damage that would cause the aircraft to break up in mid air.

I don't believe there was any attempt to recover the aircraft to an airfield, I think the damage from the warhead was such that if the crew weren't dead they had no control over the aerodynamic surfaces or engine power, and that the aircraft was breaking up within a second or so of detonation both through the damage to the aircraft's structure and the aerodynamic forces. There appears to be a turn to the right, but I think that's just akin to what happens if you throw a sheet of paper out of a moving car - it goes all over the place.
 
Well, if it was an Iranian SAM that downed the airliner, the Iranian authorities will probably know by now, at least the army or whoever is responsible for the missile batteries will know. It will be interesting to see what the authorities say when they next make a statement.
 
The Canadian PM holding a press conference just now, saying it was shot down by a Iranian missile.

ETA -

Ukraine Airlines flight PS752 when crashed near Tehran shortly after taking off. Sixty-three of its passengers had Canadian passports, and many others were living in Canada as permanent residents or on visas.
Click to expand...

www.ctvnews.ca

Intelligence indicates Flight PS752 was shot down by Iran: Trudeau

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says Canada has intelligence that indicates the plane that crashed in Iran Wednesday morning, killing all 176 people aboard, was shot down by an Iranian missile, possibly by accident.
www.ctvnews.ca
 
Last edited:
kebabking said:
It's theoretically possible, but the damage required to close, instantly, all the different communications systems - and there are many, most of them with nothing to do with the crew - looks a lot like the same amount of damage that would cause the aircraft to break up in mid air.

I don't believe there was any attempt to recover the aircraft to an airfield, I think the damage from the warhead was such that if the crew weren't dead they had no control over the aerodynamic surfaces or engine power, and that the aircraft was breaking up within a second or so of detonation both through the damage to the aircraft's structure and the aerodynamic forces. There appears to be a turn to the right, but I think that's just akin to what happens if you throw a sheet of paper out of a moving car - it goes all over the place.
Click to expand...

And also (from the little knowledge I have as an amatuer aviation buff), if you take out all or part of one wing the other wing continues to provide lift causing the plane to turn. How much turning depends on how much of the control/lift surfaces are left of the damaged wing.

Poor fuckers.
 
Last edited:
good thing there were no americans on board or there would be even more sanctions for non co-operation by the eyerianians
 
Twas ever thus. There's probable video of it now.

The Ukrainians are coming to do the FDR analysis, and if they can't get the data off it, Iran has indicated that it'll go to the French (BEA) or Canadians.
 
Doesn’t look good for Iran, unintentional undoubtedly but so was USS Vincennes and Iran retaliated by getting Lybia to down PA103.
 
Bahnhof Strasse said:
Doesn’t look good for Iran, unintentional undoubtedly but so was USS Vincennes and Iran retaliated by getting Lybia to down PA103.
Click to expand...

Amusingly (it's not, but you know what I mean) when Trump was honking off about the 52 targets in Iran to retaliate for the 52 US hostages in 1979, the supreme leader quipped that America should remember the number 270 - the number killed at Lockerbie...

Those who flirt with history seemed doomed to have the future bite them.
 
donkyboy said:
New York Times have a video of a missile shooting it down, they claim

www.nytimes.com

Video Shows Ukrainian Plane Being Hit Over Iran (Published 2020)

The New York Times has obtained video of the moment a Ukrainian airliner was hit minutes after takeoff from Tehran.
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com
Click to expand...

Bellingcat (iirc) did the geolocation and timing work on that video, so it's reasonably reliable - personally I don't think it shows much, whereas the images of the airframe, the DSPS IR imaging of the missile launches and the detonation, and the loss of signal from the aircraft's transponder tell me a lot more.

If anyone is interested, one of the reasons no US personnel were harmed in the Iranian missile strikes in Iraq was that the Defence Support Programme Satellites saw the heat from the missile launches, decided they were missile launches and broadcast the warning - flying time was a couple of minutes and most US personnel were safely in hardened shelters by the time the missiles arrived. The same satellites saw the SAM launches....

(It's not DSPS anymore, it's SBIRS, but everyone calls it's SBIRS...).
 
kebabking said:
Amusingly (it's not, but you know what I mean) when Trump was honking off about the 52 targets in Iran to retaliate for the 52 US hostages in 1979, the supreme leader quipped that America should remember the number 270 - the number killed at Lockerbie...
Click to expand...

It was 290, referring to the number of people killed on Iran Air 655.

 
kebabking said:
Amusingly (it's not, but you know what I mean) when Trump was honking off about the 52 targets in Iran to retaliate for the 52 US hostages in 1979, the supreme leader quipped that America should remember the number 270 - the number killed at Lockerbie...

Those who flirt with history seemed doomed to have the future bite them.
Click to expand...

I think he said 290, the number killed by the US when they shot down the Iranian plane, (could be wrong, been a lot going on the past few days), either way it is a tacit admission of responsibility for PA103, (on which I lost a customer :(), maybe Justin Trudeau will get St Pierre and Miquelon to retaliate on his behalf...
 
This was a perceptive take lost amidst all the useless shrieking.

rym momtaz.jpg

The IRGC's real response will be issued at some point. The murder of jewish tourists or something via proxies being a lot more likely than the splatting of US carriers.
 
seems to have calmed down a bit now, not yet WW3. A few people made some quick quid off oil and defence stocks I guess, then back to normal.
 
It seems Iran is going to claim, at least so far, that it was not their missile that brought the airliner down. I am not sure the Ukranians will buy that assuming the investigation is proper and detailed.
 
I feel sorry for Ukraine and particularly they're new president. All the shit he had in his in tray when he took over and then he finds himself right in the middle of a scandal which leads to impeachment proceedings against the US president and now this. Guy should have stuck to acting.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Bingoman
Iran Pakistan tensions
Replies
6
Views
572
yield
Y
Protag
Israel-Iran conflicts - news and discussion
6 7 8 9 10
Replies
294
Views
17K
The39thStep
The39thStep
eoin_k
WTF is going on in Iran?
Replies
23
Views
2K
Dogsauce
Dogsauce
hash tag
Mass executions Iran
Replies
0
Views
402
hash tag
hash tag
AmateurAgitator
Current Situation in Iran
Replies
0
Views
343
AmateurAgitator
AmateurAgitator
Back
Top Bottom