Have we been lucky? Just how much worse could the Coronavirus crisis have been?

[Kevbad the Bad]

Leaving aside possible positive interventions from our or other people’s governments, how much worse might things have been? Obviously something on the scale of the Black Death or worse would have been catastrophic. But what if the incubation period had been 7 days longer? What if it was twice as contagious? What if it had affected all ages groups and social groups equally? What if the death rate for those infected had been twice as high? Some or all of those possibilities could have been quite, well, possible. Have we actually been lucky?

 

[platinumsage]

Obviously everything that every happens to people could be a lot worse than it actually is.

 

[Kevbad the Bad]

Obviously everything that every happens to people could be a lot worse than it actually is.

True. That had occurred to me. I was thinking more just how close are/were we to something far more damaging?

 

[SheilaNaGig]

I suppose that if the virus was far more contagious and deadly everyone would take it far more seriously. No one would be able to say it was a hoax, no one would break lockdown, everyone would take all necessary precautions and it would be successfully contained and suppressed, instead of this stupid creeping shit show we’re currently dealing with.

 

[farmerbarleymow]

Yeah, if the fatality rate was significantly higher (say 10%) it would (hopefully) lead to people taking it far more seriously. If it was really contagious and lethal the controls would be very strict too - idiots certainly wouldn't be allowed to demonstrate like they're doing now.

 

[Puddy_Tat]

Obviously everything that every happens to people could be a lot worse than it actually is.

 

[frogwoman]

If it as contagious as Covid-19 but with a 10% death rate the conspiracy theories would be even worse tbh.

 

[Steel Icarus]

It IS a 10% death rate in the UK.

 

[StoneRoad]

It IS a 10% death rate in the UK.

That looks like it has been calculated on the confirmed case rate, which missed vast numbers of mild and asymptotic cases in the early stages (March to May).

 

[Steel Icarus]

That looks like it has been calculated on the confirmed case rate, which missed vast numbers of mild and asymptotic cases in the early stages (March to May).

Did other countries do the same, because most seem.to have fatalities around what you'd expect, 3-4%

 

[freakydave]

I agree with that thing that a lot of people have been saying about how it's 'a dress rehearsal for the real thing

I think if it was actually fatal to most people then it would have been way worse than the 1918 one with the amount of travelling around that people do.
It is so depressing how badly it has been dealt with, people refusing to observe the precautions and mass riots kicking off.
Even more depressing how the last really big virus was SARS that also became so deadly because the Chinese government covered it up and tried to play it down and then repeated the same mistake with this

I'm convinced that there will be a big one in my lifetime, like 20% of humans die or something. There is just no care for the environment or human rights in the way that we are organised and I can't see that changing without some apocalyptic event

 

[StoneRoad]

Also, the UK actually has the NHS (just think how much the care would cost in the States !).

Now, as the medical professions are beginning to understand what's going on with Covid-19, there are several drug and physical treatments are available, which were not at the start ...

 

[StoneRoad]

Did other countries do the same, because most seem.to have fatalities around what you'd expect, 3-4%

World "average" is actually around 3% (worldometers) but the death rate per million population is very variable.
Thing is, there are lots of reasons that could influence why one country has a high rate when compared to any other.

Ranging from how good the detection rates are for cases and causes of death (ie quality / accuracy of the bureaucracy as opposed to how good the hospitals are at dealing with the Covid cases).

Then after looking at the rates of known co-morbidities and population age profiles, you can go onto aspects such as population density aka overcrowding, poverty and so on.

 

[quimcunx]

Certainly there is no reason to believe that because we've had this pandemic another more deadly one couldn't come along any time.

 

[Saul Goodman]

If it had killed everyone on the planet, that would have been worse, but it could also have been a lot better, if it hadn't killed anyone.

 

[elbows]

A much larger proportion of younger people getting seriously ill or dying from it, and a bunch of especially dramatic, horrible symptoms would be the thing I would expect to change attitudes most. Standard respiratory virus symptoms arent really enough for the press, they prefer 'flesh eating viruses' for example.

And there would still be some people in denial. Because facts can easily end up secondary to people existing worldviews, and plenty of people have an interest in believing what they perceive as being in their own self-interest to believe.

Not to mention that all the individuals and entities with lots and lots of money riding on business as usual would still be engaging in their disgusting propaganda and attempts to fool people.

 

[Cloo]

I think it could have been much worse - if it was most serious for children, if it took only a tiny bit to infect anyone (I gather it's actually much less contagious than measles, for example).

Non-virus related, in the UK we were very lucky we had one of the warmest, driest, longest summers I can remember - both in terms of being able to do lots outside and also in mitigating the effects of the virus generally.

Those two combined meant that we had a bit of respite in summer and could enjoy and reopen some stuff - it didn't come back the minute restrictions were eased and I suppose at least we can look forward to the possibility of doing more again next spring/summer even in absence of a vaccine (I can't see there being one in the first half of next year somehow) rather than being locked down the entire time until we could create more mitigation strategies.

 

[Saul Goodman]

A much larger proportion of younger people getting seriously ill or dying from it, and a bunch of especially dramatic, horrible symptoms would be the thing I would expect to change attitudes most. Standard respiratory virus symptoms arent really enough for the press, they prefer 'flesh eating viruses' for example.

Boris Johnson with blood pouring from his eye sockets would have been nice.

 

[Sasaferrato]

Also, the UK actually has the NHS (just think how much the care would cost in the States !).

Now, as the medical professions are beginning to understand what's going on with Covid-19, there are several drug and physical treatments are available, which were not at the start ...

Indeed, the use of steroids making a major difference.

Changes in who is ventilated, and use of CPAP, both driven by observation, have also made a difference.

There is no doubt that people who would have died at the beginning of the outbreak won't die now.

It is still an utter and absolute cunt of a thing though.

 

[2hats]

Successful viruses do not kill in large numbers.

 

[JimW]

From the outside it seems to have been handled notably badly in the UK and would think there's been quite a lot of excess suffering due to the shambolic approach. So not lucky in that respect.

 

[StoneRoad]

Unfortunately, you only get 20/20 vision with hindsight for such outbreaks.
And it was a truly novel ie new coronavirus.

 

[elbows]

Unfortunately, you only get 20/20 vision with hindsight for such outbreaks.
And it was a truly novel ie new coronavirus.

Most of our failings were dead predictable and you dont need perfect 20/20 vision to do the well understood basics right.

There hasnt been much that is really surprising about this virus so far either.

 

[JimW]

Unfortunately, you only get 20/20 vision with hindsight for such outbreaks.
And it was a truly novel ie new coronavirus.

This is true but I feel like the underlying imperatives (open for business bascially) led to wrong turns being made at several points where better options were on the table and then there's ll the contracting out of essentials and short selling of the NHS and so forth.

 

[elbows]

Successful viruses do not kill in large numbers.

The logic of that makes sense but I'm not sure that angle is quite as clearcut as tends to be presented.

eg:

Virulence: A positive or negative trait for evolution? | Virology Blog

With just 141 confirmed deaths so far, an interesting question is whether the 2009 H1N1 influenza virus could mutate into something more lethal ("How a ...

www.virology.ws

 

[T & P]

It would have certainly been far more unbearable and stressful for everyone if it’d happened a mere 25-30 years ago, before the internet.

 

[Pickman's model]

Leaving aside possible positive interventions from our or other people’s governments, how much worse might things have been? Obviously something on the scale of the Black Death or worse would have been catastrophic. But what if the incubation period had been 7 days longer? What if it was twice as contagious? What if it had affected all ages groups and social groups equally? What if the death rate for those infected had been twice as high? Some or all of those possibilities could have been quite, well, possible. Have we actually been lucky?

You speak as tho it was over

 

[Pickman's model]

Boris Johnson with blood pouring from his eye sockets would have been nice.

All you need is thumbs or a shoe horn for that

 

[frogwoman]

IIRC there is a strain of the Ebola virus that evolved to become more deadly because it spread through bodily fluids such as blood.

 

[Saul Goodman]

You speak as tho it was over

Indeed. All it takes is a mutation the wrong (from our point of view) way, and things could get much worse.