You do seem to have a lot of strange ideas about giving people money on the basis that they pay you back with interest.
I know that some of these rest on religious principles but what exactly is wrong with debt?
Greek elections
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You do seem to have a lot of strange ideas about giving people money on the basis that they pay you back with interest.
I know that some of these rest on religious principles but what exactly is wrong with debt?
not-bono-ever
meh
Philips stance is well documented on here already elsewhere
But he clearly is not a good negotiator.
He'd probably be an excellent behind the scene guy, giving the negotiator information and advice, a SPAD in other words, which he was before, but he's obviously not the kind of guy that will get the deal through.
Moreover, he's likely to piss people off because of his narcissism- fair enough, we get it, you are iconoclastic and brilliant but we want to sit down and talk, not be harangued for how stupid we are...
two sheds
Least noticed poster 2007
He has other stuff going on, as in his Apology thread yesterday.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
He's been exactly the same for the last 14 years. My very first abusive pm on here was from him over 10 years ago wishing cancer on me.
pocketscience
Well-Known Member
... and über negotiator Junker slamming his fists on the table, shouting at Tsipras and generally throwing his toys out of the pram. Classy!
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
Anyway, moving on - some interesting points/suggestions from Michael Hudson (who i don't usually rate) here: banks as the economies new central planners, anti-free market nature of neo-liberalism, lend-to-foreclose being carried on states, deliberate created inability to pay debt to then use as management of class-war leverage/model and relevant historical examples.
The private sector has long had laws that prevent money-lenders from lending a borrower more funds than the debtor can reasonably be expected to pay back in the normal course of business. If a lender advances, say, $10,000 as a mortgage loan against a house worth more (say, $100,000), and then insists that the debtor pay or lose his home, the courts may assume that the loan was made with this aim in mind, and annul the debt.
Likewise, if a company is raided by borrowers loading it down with high-interest junk bonds, and then seize its pension funds and sell off assets to pay their debts, the company under attack can sue under fraudulent conveyance rules. They did so in the 1980s.
This lend-to-foreclose ploy is the game that the Troika have played with Greece. They lent its government money that the IMF economists explained quite clearly in 2010-11 (and reaffirmed this year just before the Greek referendum) could not be paid. But the ECB then came in and said, “Sell off your infrastructure, sell your ports, your gas rights in the Aegean, and entire islands, to get the money to pay what the IMF and ECB have paid French, German and other bondholders on your behalf (while saving U.S. investment banks and hedge funds from losing their bets that Greek debts would indeed be paid).
The private sector has long had laws that prevent money-lenders from lending a borrower more funds than the debtor can reasonably be expected to pay back in the normal course of business. If a lender advances, say, $10,000 as a mortgage loan against a house worth more (say, $100,000), and then insists that the debtor pay or lose his home, the courts may assume that the loan was made with this aim in mind, and annul the debt.
Likewise, if a company is raided by borrowers loading it down with high-interest junk bonds, and then seize its pension funds and sell off assets to pay their debts, the company under attack can sue under fraudulent conveyance rules. They did so in the 1980s.
This lend-to-foreclose ploy is the game that the Troika have played with Greece. They lent its government money that the IMF economists explained quite clearly in 2010-11 (and reaffirmed this year just before the Greek referendum) could not be paid. But the ECB then came in and said, “Sell off your infrastructure, sell your ports, your gas rights in the Aegean, and entire islands, to get the money to pay what the IMF and ECB have paid French, German and other bondholders on your behalf (while saving U.S. investment banks and hedge funds from losing their bets that Greek debts would indeed be paid).
happie chappie
Well-Known Member
This is silly. The fact almost nobody tips the table over in the bank manager’s office and calls him a cunt before asking for money suggests it’s not the best strategy.
You’re welcome to try it next time you need a loan from your bank then let us know how you get on.
The bank is liable to tell you to take your business elsewhere.
Foe Greece there is no “elsewhere”. It’s the Troika or nothing.
There’s a fundamental imbalance of power: Greece needs to borrow the money more than the Troika needs to lend it to them.
It’s the Troika dictating the terms of the loan, not Greece.
Idris2002
canadian girlfriend
I was talking to a Greek colleague yesterday, and this is what she told me:
1. One of the things that swung the vote to "no" was that the yes side used scenes of violence at ATMs in their campaign. . . and it turned out it was video footage from South Africa, not Greece.
2. A lot of people are talking about a coup, but she thinks it's just conspiracy thinking (at the time of the 2005 Madrid bombing in Spain, there was a rumour that Aznar was going to cancel the election and bring in the army - this would be a similar thing, I think).
3. Her parents have been saving all their lives, and if this doesn't work. . .
1. One of the things that swung the vote to "no" was that the yes side used scenes of violence at ATMs in their campaign. . . and it turned out it was video footage from South Africa, not Greece.
2. A lot of people are talking about a coup, but she thinks it's just conspiracy thinking (at the time of the 2005 Madrid bombing in Spain, there was a rumour that Aznar was going to cancel the election and bring in the army - this would be a similar thing, I think).
3. Her parents have been saving all their lives, and if this doesn't work. . .
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Indeed, it is Wonganomics on a grand scale. But with Wonga even the coalition govt realised there were systemic problems with its operation/regulation and changed the law, not perfectly but they did change the law.
The multi-decade systemic problems with the EU and slightly less in timeframe-terms with the eurozone - especially in the eurozone - are not being changed. The systemic failures are apparent even to a lot of other neo-liberals, in the US for example, but short term political gain is triumphing over systemic change.
Imo this is a central core issue of membership of the EU. Of the 28 nations most of their govts adhere broadly to `neo-librealism`, when it suits them. The previous Europeans built a big office block for us all to work out our problems, but it is now rented out with about 75pc of folks adhering to an ideology which has been failing economically since 1989. At what point do you leave the office or torch the building?
The multi-decade systemic problems with the EU and slightly less in timeframe-terms with the eurozone - especially in the eurozone - are not being changed. The systemic failures are apparent even to a lot of other neo-liberals, in the US for example, but short term political gain is triumphing over systemic change.
Imo this is a central core issue of membership of the EU. Of the 28 nations most of their govts adhere broadly to `neo-librealism`, when it suits them. The previous Europeans built a big office block for us all to work out our problems, but it is now rented out with about 75pc of folks adhering to an ideology which has been failing economically since 1989. At what point do you leave the office or torch the building?
pocketscience
Well-Known Member
by all accounts Juncker did it... which speaks volumes of how important it is for the troika to keep Greece in the euro
That doesn't really represent the true situation here. The details are a bit more 2 sided than Greece simply rolling up asking for a loan.
you're missing the other side of the coin. the troika don't want them to go elsewhere. If there was that much imbalance the trioka wouldn't have taken 5 months to get where they are today. They'd have told them in Feb to go elsewhere.. to me they appear to be in disarray. Tsipras on the other hand - cool as a cucumber
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
I'm not so sure that's true. In the immediate term, Greece needs the liquidity, sure, but in the longer term, who needs whom more here? Who has the most to lose?
As ever, I don't think comparisons with individuals borrowing are very instructive. This isn't the same. A bank has no stake in you personally - it is indifferent towards you personally.
It isn't quite that simple, I don't think.
1. Syriza have maneuvered to stay in power, accepting a `troika` deal pre-referendum would have finished the admin. Each to own but I think that is great and the most positive thing going, I hope it continues.
2. Let's say I owe you $5mn and I can't pay you. I declare myself bankrupt. I am double-fucked for x amount of time (Greece isn't going to be towed into space and chucked on a Martian rubbish dump, i hope) but at the end of it I am $5mn up on the deal. Greece could effectively be E320bn up. (Obvs that comes with a huge slice of distress for citizens I'm not downplaying that.) At which point it could emerge from this endless crisis.
And the minute they default on their existing debt there are actors in the finance markets who will lend them money again. A country with no debts and probable high returns...
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
"You cannot default. You must not default. You will be fucked forever if you default. Defaulting is impossible, unthinkable."
"Oh, you've defaulted. Knew you would. Right, what's next..."
"Oh, you've defaulted. Knew you would. Right, what's next..."
There will be funds, US funds, Asian, shadow banks, looking at this and hoping the Greeks default. Clean slate. Euclid's phone will ring off the hook with money lenders. Not enough mind you, not ECB size lenders, but they will lend. 10, 15, 20pc on your money? Fuck me I'd lend to them.
happie chappie
Well-Known Member
The Troika may not want them to go elsewhere but they are seemingly prepared to let them go elsewhere (ie outside the Euro) and are planning for that eventuality.
Anyway, we’re in danger of going ground covered earlier in the thread and I’ve got work to do.
But it remains my view that the outlook for the Greek people is worse outside of the Euro than in it. I think the majority of Greek people feel the same.
That’s why I still feel Greece needs the money more than the Troika needs to lend it to them.
pocketscience
Well-Known Member
Syriza have driven a solid wedge between "the institutions" of the troika to the point that one of them has made a 180 deg turnaround on debt relief. Not bad going for amateur schoolchildren.
pocketscience
Well-Known Member
I don't think anybody doubts that greece wont have it easy short to mid term. I think it's the implication that Syriza have fucked up the negotiations by not being humble arse lickers that people are contesting.
happie chappie
Well-Known Member
I’m not saying Syzria fucked up.
But in my opinion there’s a difference in bargaining between being a “humble arselicker” and conducting more or less civil negotiations, even when there is a fundamental difference of opinion, particularly when the other side is a seemingly stronger position.
I think the Troika now holds the strongest hand. Others may disagree.
redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
What's civil about driving hundreds of thousands (if not more) of people into poverty, into an early grave? Why the fuck should Syriza be civil after that terrorism?
happie chappie
Well-Known Member
Because the alternative is worse.
pocketscience
Well-Known Member
Well at least one of various alternatives could be worse. The alternative that only a vindictive, spiteful, evil group of sadists would choose.
redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
Which alternative? The one that's been decided by the troika vermin.
There's no need for the alternative to be worse apart the decision of neoliberal scum to punish the Greek people. Your refusal to see otherwise shows which side your on.
happie chappie
Well-Known Member
I’m most definitely NOT on the side of the Troika.
I’m discussing what I think the outcome will be, not what I want it to be.
pocketscience
Well-Known Member
I don't think the Eu can afford an outcome where a failed state is within its boarders. It's got enough trouble with the ones on it's doorstep.
Maybe I'm just more cynical about the doom mongering of Juncker and Co.
Maybe I'm just more cynical about the doom mongering of Juncker and Co.
happie chappie
Well-Known Member
Assuming neither side is bluffing, how do you think this is going to end?
pocketscience
Well-Known Member
I think they'll reach a deal. The debts will be reduced and the repayment stuctures will be spread out over a further period. Greece will restructure their household...
Never the less, I think a better alternative would be if the Eu used this to define an exit process that provides support to greece (or any other euro country) to leave and set up a new currency (either their own or probably better a €v2.0).
