Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster

[roctrevezel]

I can't be bothered to wade through all 57 pages of this thread so if this web reference to the daily radiation readings around the damaged reactors has been posted here already I apologise.
(The long term consequences are very worrying.)

http://www.mext.go.jp/english/incident/1304082.htm

 

[Stanley Edwards]

...
Never in the history of atomic science has one non-disaster generated so much ill referenced, bullshit science, of little or no worth and no connection at all with the reality and facts of the matter...

Are you serious?

The most annoying thing about this for me is how they continue to report facts from a few hundred meter radius around the disaster zone (3 meltdowns is pretty much a disaster) when we know the shit has been spilling into the sea from day 1, and the effects have already affected areas around the World.

You're the sucker for believing the PR shit.

 

[elbows]

The stuff that went into the sea may take quite some time to spread over very large distances. Stuff in the air did travel round much of the world, but not in quantities where any consequences will be easy to spot at all.

Japan itself is likely to bear the brunt of the consequences. I agree that its a disaster. I disagree that facts are only reported up to a few hundred meters radius. Plenty of very bad mistakes have been made with handling the contamination over much larger distances than that, but there is data from wider distances.

For example it appears to have been confirmed that the contaminated beef made it into some school meals, and some meals served on bullet trains. I don't think the balance that the Japanese have struck between dealing with the problem, protecting the health of its citizens, protecting the economy & livelihoods, and being in denial versus facing the full truth, would be tolerated if it were attempted here, nor in many other places. Its been shocking, but not altogether surprising given the cultural etc differences that I am not going to pretend to understand or judge.

 

[robbo180265]

Cheers. Given that I am not an expert in nuclear stuff I am alarmed that it came to this. I thought there would be far more experts & quality media articles that would keep talking at length about Fukushima for some months after the disaster. But what actually happened is that only a few media entities ever got to grips with all the detail, and they didn't have a large amount of either will or opportunity to keep asking the right questions to try to get more detail on certain matters and build further on the story. And as some of the biggest questions may take many years to answer, they haven't had enough new info to keep running with the story. I expect there is some pressure not to be 'irresponsible with words in a way that may harm national interests & the future energy supplies of the country'. And the strange setup in Japan means that the political shitstorm that should come from the botched response when it comes to evacuation locations & contaminated foodstuffs etc, has not quite evolved in the manner we might expect if such a disaster happened here. Sections of the Japanese media have retained an interest, and they don't pull every single punch, but plenty of these stories don't make it into english in full it seems.

I thought there may have been far more ongoing discussion with more people on forums such as this one, but I guess it is not actually surprising that things went the way they did. I don't like having more apparent knowledge about certain aspects of a story than others, its a lonely place, and I am a human who will make mistakes and I want peers around to put me straight when I err. But I only got my knowledge by investing silly amounts of time into reading many documents that were often extremely tedious, and I do not fault anyone for not bothering to invest so much time into similar activities. Especially as it was always apparent that any truly massive facts about the state of the reactors would likely leap out into the world without requiring a geek like me to drone on about it. Lets face it, I don't think anything especially notable has happened since I became the main poster of news in this thread, most of the big stuff happened early on. At best I have hopefully helped people to get some sense of proportion and balance, considering that many other sources of info have been keen to paint extreme pictures in this regard, either in terms of horror stories or false reassurances.

I'd just like to say that I'm still here, your posts are brilliant they keep us up to date without hysteria or any form of bias.

Keep it up matey, it's very difficult to find news on this disaster from other sources,

 

[elbows]

Ta, I will try but won't be as often or as thorough.

Stuff I didn't bother to mention recently includes a typhoon that didn't come very close to Fukushima, but still caused a lot of rain to fall there. They put something over the hole in the roof of reactor 3's turbine building to stop rain getting in there. Water levels in various basements rose as a result of all the rain.

The water decontamination system is still under performing quite badly. They will likely build an alternative treatment system in the months ahead.

Some of the grid power lines to the site went out early today, causing some problems but nothing too serious by the sounds of it, since they had other power sources available for some of the most essential work. Power is now back.

In a few months we will start to find out how badly this years rice harvest gets messed up by contamination.

Something I haven't gone on about too much is quite how many of the other nuclear power stations in Japan remain offline. Its lots, and as other reactors close down for routine inspection, but aren't allowed to restart until new rules & guidelines are properly established, the issue continues to grow. For example:

http://www3.nhk.or.jp/daily/english/22_06.html

37 nuclear reactors in Japan, or nearly 70 percent of them, remain shut. This includes 2 reactors operated by Kansai Electric Power Company in Fukui Prefecture that were recently closed for regular inspections.

According to the plant operators, inspections for 11 of the 37 reactors will finish by August. But it is still unknown when any of these will be resumed due to the government's new stress-test requirements announced earlier this month.

The remaining 17 reactors that are currently in operation will also be brought to a halt for regular inspections every 13 months. Among these is the Kansai Electric Ohi power plant No. 4 reactor in Fukui Prefecture that will shut down by Saturday. An additional 3 reactors will be brought to a halt by August.

Among the 13 other reactors in operation, 5 will be stopped by autumn, 6 by winter, and 2 by spring.
This would leave Japan with no nuclear reactors in operation by spring next year.
Friday, July 22, 2011 07:27 +0900 (JST)

 

[Dr Jon]

Just spotted:

Plugging reactors no longer stated goal for Tepco

 

[elbows]

Nice find, that article covers some important stuff.

To be honest Im not surprised they have given up on plans to plug reactor containment holes, at least for now. It will be bloody hard to even begin to achieve this, and if some of the core has already left containment then its closing the stable door after the horse has bolted.

I also suspect that plugging holes was part of the original plan because they also planned to fill the containment vessels with water, and that requires leaks to be plugged first. But I think they gave up on the plans to fill containment completely with water, so plugging the holes becomes less essential.

All this stuff would be far more of a hot topic if it was shown that very large amounts of radiation continue to escape from the reactors daily. But as readings continue to indicate that most of the radiation in the environment comes from the early days of the disaster, rather than fresh releases, they are not under quite so much pressure to fix this. So preventing the reactors state from worsening, and dealing with the contaminated water will remain the priorities. And what radiation is still escaping into the air is supposed to be largely dealt with by the new building covers that they have planned (and have start to put together for reactor 1).

 

[elbows]

Oh the problems the Japanese have to face:

http://www3.nhk.or.jp/daily/english/23_20.html

TEPCO to eliminate gangsters from nuclear projects
The operator of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant is stepping up efforts to prevent gangsters from earning money in projects for bringing the crisis under control.

Tokyo Electric Power Company and 23 affiliates set up a council to eliminate criminal organizations from such projects.

More than 50 people from member companies and the National Police Agency, the council's advisor, attended its first meeting in Tokyo on Friday.

The head of the council, Satoshi Muto of TEPCO, said gangsters may become involved in rebuilding efforts and could work at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant.

He said the council will step up cooperation with police to develop measures to stop their participation.

Police say criminal syndicates are gaining work in rebuilding projects, claiming to be companies and volunteer groups.

A gangster has been arrested in Iwate Prefecture for illegally sending workers to construction sites for temporary housing.

The council plans to cooperate with police in drawing up contracts and exchanging information on criminal groups to prevent their participation in projects.
Saturday, July 23, 2011 13:41 +0900 (JST)

 

[Dr Jon]

Just spotted: Threat to Japanese Food Chain Multiplies as Cesium Contamination Spreads

Radiation fallout from the wrecked Fukushima nuclear plant poses a growing threat to Japan’s food chain as unsafe levels of cesium found in beef on supermarket shelves were also detected in more vegetables and the ocean.

 

[xes]

I'd just like to say that I'm still here, your posts are brilliant they keep us up to date without hysteria or any form of bias.

Keep it up matey, it's very difficult to find news on this disaster from other sources,

I'd like to second this, and add a big fuck off thank you, to elbows, who has, without resentment of any kind, endulged my fact free links and taken some time to sort the wheat from the chaff. This is seriously appreciated, so, nice one dude, and thank you for your time and patience. (and understanding in the fact that these things, even though half the time being complete bollocks, still need clearing up)

 

[elbows]

Cheers. Is the subject still getting much attention on the world wide wibble? As there is not too much to talk about right now, I would not mind if you find some more stuff that I can look at.

Meanwhile the head of the IAEA finally visited the site himself, I find the videos of these sorts of things rather absurd in places.



See how the great leader strides masterfully ahead, pay no attention to the frog.

 

[story]

I'd just like to say that I'm still here, your posts are brilliant they keep us up to date without hysteria or any form of bias.

Keep it up matey, it's very difficult to find news on this disaster from other sources,

I'd like to second this, and add a big fuck off thank you, to elbows, who has, without resentment of any kind, endulged my fact free links and taken some time to sort the wheat from the chaff. This is seriously appreciated, so, nice one dude, and thank you for your time and patience. (and understanding in the fact that these things, even though half the time being complete bollocks, still need clearing up)

Yes indeed: many thanks elbows.

 

[two sheds]

Cheers. Is the subject still getting much attention on the world wide wibble? As there is not too much to talk about right now, I would not mind if you find some more stuff that I can look at.

I have a question – doesn’t really fit on this thread but what the hell.

Where is the extra uranium coming from in 2013?

The world’s total demand this year is around 150 million lb/year, which is about 25% larger than supply and around double that supplied by mines. Demand has been higher than supply since the 1980s, with the difference met by converting decommissioned Russian warheads and by reducing stockpiles. Stockpiles are getting low now, and conversion of warheads will pretty well finish in 2013. (http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf22.html)

The US uses nearly 44 Mlb of uranium per year in 104 reactors, but only produces 4 Mlb/year. The Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU) agreement between the US and Russia expires in 2013, and so the US will come on the market looking for another 40 Mlb/year. The output from mines is difficult to increase quickly, though, and over the last few years floods have halted production at a couple of major mines.

Are countries that can’t negotiate uranium contracts going to have to close some nuclear power stations? That would make wind energy output look like the most reliable of reliable things.


P.S. Yep add my appreciation once more for the information you've put on the thread.

 

[elbows]

Ta. Only wish there was far more we can learn, since several big questions remain unanswered.

BBC story about citizens returning to one place just a few miles from the nuclear plant, for a few hours. Includes video.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-14270736

I wouldn't pay much attention to the stuff about the state of the plant thats mentioned at the end of the article. Though it does tally with some stories in the last month or so which suggest that some in Japan seem to be thinking that the evacuation zone will be reduced once the reactors are more stable. Given the startling examples of wilful ignorance about contamination that some in Japan have demonstrated, I would not rule out the possibility of this happening, although personally I would think that many areas will not really be safe to live in for a very long time indeed.

The water decontamination system continues to have woes, its not very robust and sludge in some places within pipework has really hampered its throughput. So they've had to get some additional water from a nearby reservoir a few times now, adding to the total amount of dodgy water on site.

 

[elbows]

I have a question – doesn’t really fit on this thread but what the hell.

Where is the extra uranium coming from in 2013?

I don't know. It seems likely that Uranium supply constraints will become an issue at some point, but I don't know if it will be as soon as 2013, I will try to find out.

I think I read a story about India finding loads of uranium recently but apparently this won't be enough for their own future needs, let alone anybody else's.

 

[Dr Jon]

<buys Thorium futures>


Off-topic ETA:
India has shedloads of Thorium.
The 'black sand' on South Indian beaches is mostly Thorianite / Monzanite

 

[teqniq]

hi elbows

May seem pretty inconsequential in the scheme of things but my partner who works in a local library says they are currently unable to procure toner cartridges for their printers due to the disaster (though how much is directly due to the reactors is unclear). A quick Google produces this link with plenty more info:

http://www.cartridgewasp.co.uk/news.cfm

I suppose if supplies are interrupted for any great length of time it will have an economic impact on both the manufacturers and consumers....

E2A thanks as well for the heaps of info you've provided

 

[Dr Jon]

Just noticed this blog post, which links to a piece in the Indy, as well as the ex-skf blog, which looks interesting.

 

[elbows]

Yeah ex-skf is the site I mentioned some days back, a useful source if a little shrill at times.

Will try to talk about some of the other issues raised here recently soon, not got much time right now.

Meanwhile the continued water treatment problems have taken their toll on the timescale of things:

Water treatment system running below capacity
A water decontamination system at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant has been operating below its target capacity, resulting in delays to the firm's timetable of about 2 months.

Tokyo Electric Power Company started running the decontamination system in late June to remove radioactive substances from water pooled in reactor buildings' basements. Treated water is sent back into the reactors as coolant.

TEPCO says the system operated at 63 percent capacity from June 17th until Tuesday, though it aimed to run it at 70 percent capacity.

The company was planning to decrease the amount of contaminated water to a safe level by early August. But, it now says the timetable is likely to be pushed back until late September.

The failure to reach the target is mainly attributed to the fact the system's working capacity is at about 30 percent below designed levels. The system has also stopped repeatedly due to various operational problems.

TEPCO says problems seen in the early stages of the operation have been solved, and that it will try to increase the system's treatment rate from now.
Thursday, July 28, 2011 11:48 +0900 (JST)

http://www3.nhk.or.jp/daily/english/28_19.html

 

[elbows]

Humans have been inside reactor 3 building again, reaching higher floors this time, surveying several points which it seems are candidates for water injection. I have not yet read as to exactly why they are looking for such candidates right now, will try to find out.

http://www.tepco.co.jp/en/nu/fukushima-np/images/handouts_110728_01-e.pdf

Above document shows radiation levels at various points in the building. On the last page where we see indication of a rather radioactive location, the containment vessels outer concrete wall can be seen on the left of the photo.

 

[elbows]

Aha, ex-skf had already covered the reason for seeing alternative water injection points for reactor 3, by translating a press article:

http://ex-skf.blogspot.com/2011/07/now-they-tell-us-series-fukushima.html

TEPCO announced on July 26 that the company started the work to change the method of water injection in order to cool the fuel inside the Reactor 3 more effectively. The Japanese-made robot "Quince" went inside the reactor building to investigate whether it was possible to use the pipe that could feed water closer to the nuclear fuel.

In Reactors 1, 2 and 3, the cooling water is being poured outside the core shroud to lower the temperature of the fuel. The method is adequate in Reactor 1 and 2 with about 4 tonnes/hour water injection, but in Reactor 3 this method of cooling is not efficient enough, and it requires 9 tonnes/hour water.

As the result, more contaminated water is being produced, and the company was looking for an alternative method of cooling. TEPCO is considering using the ECCS (emergency core cooling system) pipe which can pour water from above the fuel. On July 26, the company sent the robot "Quince" to the 1st and 2nd floors of Reactor 3 building to take pictures of the pipe, and started measuring the radiation levels to see if workers could enter the building.

There are all sorts of possibilities as to why reactor 3 temperature has been more of an issue. Maybe more of the fuel remains within the core structure in 3, which leads to further questions about where the corium is in reactors 1 & 2. Or the temperature measurements may be off at one or more reactors. Or maybe the damage to reactor core structure is different at reactor 3, and water leaks out more directly without getting as close to whats left of the core, but the situation is different with reactors 1 & 2. No way for me to know, but perhaps we will learn something by watching reactor 3 temperature once they have managed to inject water to a different part of the reactor.

 

[elbows]

People wonder how much radioactive stuff continues to escape from the reactors. We know it isn't a staggeringly immense amount because of a lack of rise in radiation reasons on site, especially when wind direction carries stuff from reactor locations to monitoring site points. But there could still be quite a bit escaping, and measurements of air above reactors at various times in recent months has not really shed much light on this issue. The readings are nearly always very low, probably in part because damage to the outer building structures of reactors 1 & 3 makes it hard to find a single sampling point. Reactor 2 just has one panel missing, and sure enough in recent sampling tests using t-hawk drones, the numbers came out higher for reactor 2, although still nothing to shout about.

Anyways, it sounds like they would like to improve on this situation, so they are going to take samples of air from inside the reactor containment vessels.

http://www3.nhk.or.jp/daily/english/29_13.html

 

[elbows]

ex-skf have some extremely useful translations of the professor who previously resigned as an adviser because he was upset at how the government had handled radio activate contamination & health issues. He has been giving testimony in front of a committee and it contains much that can help us understand the probable risks from radiation.

http://ex-skf.blogspot.com/2011/07/professor-tatsuhiko-kodama-of-tokyo.html

http://ex-skf.blogspot.com/2011/07/part-2-professor-tatsuhiko-kodama-of.html

http://ex-skf.blogspot.com/2011/07/part-3-professor-tatsuhiko-kodama-of.html

A large taster:

About iodine-131. As you know, iodine accumulates in thyroid gland, and that is most noticeable during the formative phase of thyroid gland, i.e. in small children.

However, when the first researcher in Ukraine was saying in 1991 "There are an increasing number of thyroid cancer", researchers in Japan and the US were publishing articles in Nature magazine saying "There is no causal relationship between the radiation and thyroid cancer." Why did they say that? Because there was no data prior to 1986, there was no statistical significance.

The statistical significance was finally noted 20 years later. Why? Because the peak that started in 1986 disappeared. So even without the data prior to 1986, the occurrence of thyroid cancer and radiation exposure from Chernobyl had the causal relationship. Epidemiological proof is very difficult. It is impossible to prove until all the cases are done.

Therefore, from the viewpoint of "protecting our children" a completely different approach is required.

Dr. Shoji Fukushima from a national institution called Japan Bioassay Research Center, which researches health effects of chemical compounds, has been studying diseases involving urinary tract since the Chernobyl accident.

Dr. Fukushima and doctors in Ukraine studied parts of bladders removed during more than 500 cases of prostatic hypertrophy surgery. They found out that in the highly contaminated area where 6Bq/liter was detected in urine, there was a high frequency of mutation of p53 though 6Bq may sound minuscule.

They also noticed many cases of proliferative precancerous conditions, which we assume was due to the activation of p38 MAP kinase and the signal called "NF-kappa B," leading inevitably to proliferative cystitis, with carcinoma in situ occurring with considerable frequency.

Knowing this, I was astounded to hear the report that 2 to 13Bq/liter [of radioactive cesium] was detected from the breast milk of seven mothers in Fukushima.

 

[laptop]

Just for the record to check later:

A 6.4 magnitude earthquake has been felt in north-east Japan, shaking buildings in the capital Tokyo, reports say.

The quake's epicentre was off the east coast of Honshu.

It struck in the same area as the 11 March earthquake and tsunami but no abnormalities at Japanese nuclear plants were reported, Reuters says.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-14354844

 

[elbows]

On the political front, Kan appears to be trying to reimagine himself as the perfect man to clean up the dodgy regulatory & government energy institution situation. As there is much to criticise the government for when it comes to the way they have handled many contamination issues, I haven't got bags of praise for them, but I am still pleased to see that the opportunity is being taken to expose some more dodgy stuff from the past. Mind you they had to be seen to be dealing with this side of things effectively so that they can start the 'drawing a line under it' and rebuilding trust in nuclear power public communication mission. Only time will tell whether the new stance towards nuclear safety issues & reform is of great substance beyond being a vital PR mission, the success or failure of which has some strong economic ramifications in the years to come. So far they have taken a lot of nuclear power stations offline since the disaster, more than I would expect many countries to have done, will be interesting to see how quickly they are allowed back on, and which ones may remain shutdown for a long time to come.

http://www3.nhk.or.jp/daily/english/31_24.html

Kan criticizes nuke watchdog for manipulation
Prime Minister Naoto Kan has criticized Japan's nuclear regulator for trying to manipulate public opinion on nuclear power.

Kan attended an energy policy forum on Sunday in Chino, north of Tokyo. He referred to the alleged manipulation of opinion on nuclear energy by the Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency.

The agency allegedly told Chubu Electric Power Company to ensure that some participants at a symposium asked prearranged questions in favor of nuclear power. The event was held 4 years ago in Shizuoka Prefecture, which hosts a nuclear plant.

Kan said if the allegation is true, it means that the agency sided with the utility to promote nuclear power, although the agency should ensure the safety of nuclear plants for the public.

Kan likened the agency's allegation to the scandal of tainted blood products, which he tackled when he was health minister in the mid-1990s.

In the 1980s, many people, mostly patients with hemophilia, contracted HIV through tainted products because the health ministry allowed drugmakers to sell them even after safer products were developed.

Kan said the current nuclear administration and system totally lack the ability of responding to nuclear accidents. He put the blame on the realignment of government offices about a decade ago under Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto that created various committees in the Cabinet Office.
Kan expressed his resolve to address the fundamental reorganization of institutions related to energy policy, and not just the separation of the agency from the economy ministry. He said he will pursue a fundamental reconstruction of the nuclear and energy administration from a position free from any vested interests.

 

[elbows]

In recent months they have got fairly good cooling systems working for two of the spent fuel pools, at reactors 2 & 3. The pool at reactor 4 has proven harder to rig up a cooling system for, and temperatures measured in the pool have tended to remain well above 80 degrees C. Well they finally got cooling going for this pool now as well. If its anything like the other pools then the temperature will get down to more sensible levels much sooner than the 'down to 55 deg C within a month' that this article mentions, although I should not overstretch such presumptions as the decay heat in 4 pool is likely quite a bit more than the others.

http://www3.nhk.or.jp/daily/english/31_22.html

 

[elbows]

Highest level of radioactivity measured so far on site now has a new record holder, an amount of over 10 Sieverts/hr at the base of the ventilation stack for reactors 1 & 2. Thats a very high value indeed.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/artic...LP8WWK6JTSEJ01-5PIJEFGJ36KM50OK194CMKAJ22.DTL

 

[laptop]

Highest level of radioactivity measured so far on site now has a new record holder, an amount of over 10 Sieverts/hr at the base of the ventilation stack for reactors 1 & 2. Thats a very high value indeed.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/artic...LP8WWK6JTSEJ01-5PIJEFGJ36KM50OK194CMKAJ22.DTL

I hour's exposure = near-certain death untreated, worse than 50% odds if treated

(Wikipedia exposure figurs given in Gray; 1 Sievert = 1 Gray, adjusted for type of radiation. Isn't it?)

 

[elbows]

Yeah, something like that (I've not needed to look at Grays much myself so can't say for sure). But yeah, certainly a deadly amount if someone were to lurk there for more than minutes.

Here is the Guardians story on this:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/aug/02/japan-nuclear

I'd like to know more about what lurks within the stack to produce such high readings. Given that they don't know exactly how high the level is because the detectors max out at 10 Sieverts I would think its something from the fuel itself.

Also not sure whether its stuff from reactor 1 or reactor 2. Reactor 2 is said to be the cause of 90% of the total emissions from the early phase of the crisis, but its pretty unclear whether any of this stuff made it out through the vent stack, it may well have left via the damaged suppression chamber. So perhaps reactor 1 is a more likely candidate. For example in this TEPCO webcam picture from 3pm on March 12th, something is happening at the top of what I believe to be the stack in question (the reactor 3/4 stack is almost directly in front of the reactor 1/2 stack from this angle).

 

[elbows]

This story suggests it is from reactor 1, and the timing is about right for the above image I posted:

http://www3.nhk.or.jp/daily/english/02_14.html

Can also see from image in that story why this high level was not detected previously, and why it hasn't been a large threat to human health. Note that the detection meter is on the end of a pole so the worker isn't too close to the danger.