Feminism - where are the threads?
- Thread starter JudithB
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Athos
Well-Known Member
I'm not sure I agree that the difference is so stark.
Athos
Well-Known Member
I know you don't; never thought that for a minute. Though I'm sure it'd be no bad thing if someone did shut me up!
editor
hiraethified
Stop fucking about with user names.
Evidence-based practice is supposed to include practice-based evidence but the current political climate values and prioritises RCTs above all else to the point where they have become synonymous.
Athos
Well-Known Member
But we don't have to accept that.
Something which isn't widely understood is that GIDs is supposed to work with local CAMHS clinics, referring services, to gather information, get to know the young person and the family. I don't know how well this works due to huge pressures on services and challenges everywhere doing any kind of linked-up work.
Anyway, I suppose what I want to get across isn't my awareness of the specifics so much as an appreciation of complexity. Any strongly felt certainty is likely to be misplaced.
chilango
Hypothetical Wanker
My experience in the couple of cases I was involved in is that that link up work was ok. Certainly no worse, maybe a little better, than other situations.
...but that's a very small sample.
Rob Ray
Weight is meaningless
Interesting how a rising number of kids identifying as trans can simultaneously be a fad that'll blow over when they get tired of drama and the most terrifying attack on childhood in a generation perpetrated by a cabal of trans zealots intent on mutilating their progeny. Anyway just on the "4,400% rise" mentioned, the actual numbers there are:
>In 2009/2010, a total of 40 girls were referred by doctors for gender treatment. By 2017/2018 that number had soared to 1,806.
>Referrals for boys have risen from 57 to 713 in the same period.
There are currently 8.81 million pupils of all ages in school as of 2019 (up from 8m in 2009), so 2,500 pupils getting referred is equivalent to 0.03% of the total. Conservative estimates on the percentage of the general UK population identifying as trans is something like 0.2%. Meaning that the rise, while seemingly sharp, is nearly a factor of ten lower than the percentage of adult people who identify as trans. Suggesting that it does not in fact represent a fad or a wide-ranging campaign of manipulation, but simply a small movement towards parity, most likely brought about by greater availability of support networks and acceptance in peer groups.
Amazing what a bit of context can do for what on the face of it would otherwise look like a shock number, eh.
>In 2009/2010, a total of 40 girls were referred by doctors for gender treatment. By 2017/2018 that number had soared to 1,806.
>Referrals for boys have risen from 57 to 713 in the same period.
There are currently 8.81 million pupils of all ages in school as of 2019 (up from 8m in 2009), so 2,500 pupils getting referred is equivalent to 0.03% of the total. Conservative estimates on the percentage of the general UK population identifying as trans is something like 0.2%. Meaning that the rise, while seemingly sharp, is nearly a factor of ten lower than the percentage of adult people who identify as trans. Suggesting that it does not in fact represent a fad or a wide-ranging campaign of manipulation, but simply a small movement towards parity, most likely brought about by greater availability of support networks and acceptance in peer groups.
Amazing what a bit of context can do for what on the face of it would otherwise look like a shock number, eh.
I should think local organisations are very keen to link up with GIDS. I can imagine schools, in particular, wanting to ensure those links are functioning as it's likely they fear they themselves lack the expertise.
Anyway, it is strange that yet another thread has ended up discussing this. I didn't want to post on the subject again really, I've said all I have to say about it before, I'm not adding anything here.
abstract1
shitting miracles
I’m not surprised by the travel of direction, tbf.
Also, I find your contributions, generally, very valuable - please don’t ever ‘not post’ if you feel you have something to say! Apols for slightly clumsy wording.
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Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
By no means - you add a great deal
Athos
Well-Known Member
Yep, I agree. Certainty is a probably a sign of a lack of understanding of the complexity!
And I'm sure nobody will disagree that these important services are chronically under-resourced.
Athos
Well-Known Member
I think yours is one if the more valuable voices on this subject.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
this has been playing on my mind today
I don't think feminism is that at all, it's a very peculiar form of feminism you practice if it's nothing to do with men unless they're rapists or gropers. Doesn't your feminism have anything to say about equality in the workplace or home?
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Supine
Newt Member
Thanks all for your appreciative words. I wasn't looking for that but nice to read anyhow
Good to have someone who knows their stuff contributing
scifisam
feck! arse! girls! drink!
I'm sorry, but that's fucking ridiculous. Is there any other "context" in which you'd downplay a 4000% increase so much? Seriously.
It's not like that represents all the girls who are identifying as genderqueer or trans, either - it's a tiny percentage of them. It's dishonest to pretend otherwise.
What a disingenuous post. Well written, though. That bit about the cabal makes people who have any concerns about the rise in referrals look really evil even though it's not actually representative of their views. Clever.
This is one of the reasons loads of people have given up on these discussions. Nobody's won any arguments in the sense of persuading "the other side," people have just given up. It's difficult to discuss something that's happening if some people, like you, claim it's not even happening at all.
I'm not going to keep discussing it either, but I couldn't let this bit lie.
Rob Ray
Weight is meaningless
"is therea other "context" in which you'd downplay a 4000% increase so much?"
I'm not downplaying anything, in fact all I did was use actual numbers rather than interpreted ones, but yes of course there are other examples of similarity dodgy stats being used for partisan ends.
Knife crime for example is regularly portrayed as "surging" but the increase is from such a low base relative to both population change and the historic lows of the last two decades that highlighting a percentage rise can make the issue look far larger than the reality. It's a technique used a lot in reactionary journalism when people are looking for a way to scare and titillate public opinion for the sake of a good old fashioned moral panic. Honestly I would urge people to check the backend stats every time the headline looks outlandish, because it usually means something fishy is being done to them.
It's an impressive bit of projection that you'd accuse me of being disingenuous when I'm specifically pointing out how JB is using partial stats in a misleading manner. Doesn't reflect well on you though imo.
Nor does that vague handwaving of yours about some supposed vast number of kids who identify as trans without doing something about it, which was a) not the issue as first highlighted, goalpost-mover b) is surely a point against panicking even if it does exist as a phenomenon, as it would suggest doctors and parents are not in fact giving in to fads en masse at all and are sensibly only referring when it seems like a legit ask.
I'm not downplaying anything, in fact all I did was use actual numbers rather than interpreted ones, but yes of course there are other examples of similarity dodgy stats being used for partisan ends.
Knife crime for example is regularly portrayed as "surging" but the increase is from such a low base relative to both population change and the historic lows of the last two decades that highlighting a percentage rise can make the issue look far larger than the reality. It's a technique used a lot in reactionary journalism when people are looking for a way to scare and titillate public opinion for the sake of a good old fashioned moral panic. Honestly I would urge people to check the backend stats every time the headline looks outlandish, because it usually means something fishy is being done to them.
It's an impressive bit of projection that you'd accuse me of being disingenuous when I'm specifically pointing out how JB is using partial stats in a misleading manner. Doesn't reflect well on you though imo.
Nor does that vague handwaving of yours about some supposed vast number of kids who identify as trans without doing something about it, which was a) not the issue as first highlighted, goalpost-mover b) is surely a point against panicking even if it does exist as a phenomenon, as it would suggest doctors and parents are not in fact giving in to fads en masse at all and are sensibly only referring when it seems like a legit ask.
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Athos
Well-Known Member
Or like recorded hate crimes against trans people which are fewer in number and rising less rapidly than the number of children referred? It seems that challenges to statistics can be equally partisan.
For the record, I'm not downplaying the rise in reported hate crimes against trans people; I think both these phenomena are concerning, and need to be addressed. I don't believe we should shrug off a 4,000% increase in an area of children's wellbeing in white such a cavalier fashion.
Rob Ray
Weight is meaningless
Ah yes, it's cavalier to use real stats as opposed to the scariest possible interpretation of those numbers, and violence against trans people is "equally as concerning" as referral to a doctor. Classy as ever Athos, thought I had you on mute already. Will fix now.
Athos
Well-Known Member
I didn't say "equally as concerning"; your quotation marks are an entirely dishonest misrepresentation of my position.
Both stats are "real." The increases in both are a cause for concern, notwithstanding that the actual numbers are low.
What concerns me isn't that referrals are made, but that they're needed. If that's just because young people are more comfortable coming forward, that's great; if it's that more young people are suffering this distress, that's a worry. I think it worthy of some investigation, rather than your approach of shrugging it off.
By all means mute me if you're not willing or able to respond to what I actually write.
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redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
I'm not going to get into the specifics about what constitutes downplaying but Rob Ray is absolutely correct that using a % increase with small numbers (like 40) is nearly always a bad idea and would usually be frowned upon.
An increase from 40 to 1600 is very different to an increase from 400,000 to 16,000,000.
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I think there's a real discord here and that many see this rise purely in terms of it being a bad thing, and it's difficult to avoid the implication therefore that being trans is a bad thing, or at least something society should try to prevent.
From a perspective though that recognises trans is just a thing, that is unpreventable and as such it is actually a good thing that more young trans people are receiving support, as long of course as only those who really need it are receiving any form of medical treatment. When taking about numbers perhaps a good starting point is how many trans children would you expect there to be. I'm not sure of any research that has been done into how many of the estimated 1% of those who are trans or gender dysphoria who report significant distress due to gender dysphoria in childhood and who feel they would have benefitted from the support offered but my guess is it would be significantly more than one in ten thousand of the population. In this context whilst the rise might be sudden, the number of children referred to GIDS is very low.
Obviously that doesn't answer the question of whether these are the right children, but given minimum 3year waiting and assessment periods and the fact the Tavistock say these children are thriving and they have a zero regret rate then it looks pretty promising. The Tavistock are also embarking on a huge research project into treating gender dysphoria in children, more research is going on elsewhere and despite popular assumptions this is widely supported by the trans community. It's pretty offensive that some, not you scifii but many, imply there is an agenda to trans children, the ultimate end point of which would be to induce gender dysphoria in non trans adults by giving them bodies that didn't match their genders or sense of self or whatever you want to call it. That is exactly what trans healthcare is intended to prevent.
Finally if you start from the perspective that trans kids exist, and they really do, then Occams Razor would surely suggest that the rise in referrals had come from the massive change in social attitudes towards trans acceptance, as well as the fact these services have gone from being a tiny backwater of the NHS that even many GPs weren't aware of to front page news. There has also been a very large rise in trans girls presenting for treatment. I'm haven't heard any claims that this is also due to ROGD, or that there are clusters of trans girls, or that they are confused gay teenagers who have been taught to hate their bodies by Patriarchy. It again seems pretty obvious that this is due to a reduction in social stigma, although that may be going into reverse in the UK and greater awareness of treatment options. Because really, from my memory the last thing the teenage boys I grew up alongside wanted was for their dicks to shrivel up due to hormones.
8ball
Decolonise colons!
I'm guessing it's gone from 2 to 90.
edit: oops - a bit off there, but that figure doesn't match 4,400% tbf
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Athos
Well-Known Member
First, where does the 1% estimate come from?
Secondly, if one in a hundred kids are trans, the chances of, say, four girls in a group of ten being trans are very, very small. Yet this story of clustering is being reported by many. Doesn't that suggest that there might be more to it than simply an increased willingness to come out? If young people are identifying as trans for reasons other than gender dysphoria (e.g. social contagion) they might require different treatment from those who have gender dysphoria.
belboid
Exasperated, not angry.
Gender dysphoria (I presume)
Unless, of course, those who do experience GD actively seek each other out, which you'd have thought they'd be quite likely to do.
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Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
cba
andysays
Love and solidarity
What the relevant part of that link says is
Gender variant presumably isn't exactly the same as having gender dysphoria, but I guess we can take the two as similar for the purposes of this estimate.
And given that public awareness is growing and more people are seeking help, it's likely that the estimated figure will be something of an underestimate.
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