Euros 20/21 Permutations, Stats & Records

[Badgers]

Let's have em...

 

[Lord Camomile]

Statto! Statto! Statto!

 

[blairsh]

Statto! Statto! Statto!

This.

 

[strung out]

There have now been five own goals in Euro 2020, beating the previous record of three set in 2016.

 

[The39thStep]

Not convinced with this model. I suppose some of this speculation (this is of tonight) depends on how the groups finish but I can't believe Spain's chances are higher than Belgium's or Italy's. Or that Denmark with ) points are based higher than Sweden who have 4pts or even Wales who have 4pts

 

[Badgers]

With seven goals, Shaqiri is now Switzerland's all time leading scorer at major tournaments.

 

[Dandred]

Not convinced with this model. I suppose some of this speculation (this is of tonight) depends on how the groups finish but I can't believe Spain's chances are higher than Belgium's or Italy's. Or that Denmark with ) points are based higher than Sweden who have 4pts or even Wales who have 4pts

View attachment 274360

If that relates to betting odds I would put a few quid on Italy

 

[The39thStep]

Team of the second round

 

[Lord Camomile]

See, people criticising England's performance, but we were playing a side with two players in the team of the second round, while we had none!

 

[Badgers]

 

[Lord Camomile]

Posted this on the England thread, but thought it might be appropriate for this permutations thread too?

Straight from the source, hopefully helps having it all listed out:

How ties are broken within groups​

If two or more teams in the same group are equal on points on completion of the final tournament group stage, the following criteria are applied, in the order given, to determine their rankings:

a. higher number of points obtained in the matches played among the teams in question
b. superior goal difference resulting from the matches played among the teams in question
c. higher number of goals scored in the matches played among the teams in question
d. if, after having applied criteria a) to c), teams still have an equal ranking, criteria a) to c) are reapplied exclusively to the matches between the remaining teams to determine their final rankings. If this procedure does not lead to a decision, criteria e) to i) apply in the order given to the two or more teams still equal
e. superior goal difference in all group matches
f. higher number of goals scored in all group matches
g. higher number of wins in all group matches
h. lower disciplinary points total based only on yellow and red cards received in all group matches (red card = 3 points, yellow card = 1 point, expulsion for two yellow cards in one match = 3 points)
i. position in the overall European Qualifiers rankings

If two teams which have the same number of points and the same number of goals scored and conceded play their last group match against each other and are still equal at the end of that match, their final rankings are determined by kicks from the penalty mark, provided that no other teams within the group have the same number of points on completion of all group matches.

How the four best third-placed teams are decided​

With reference to article 21.03, the results of the third-placed teams are compared based on their three group stage matches, according to the following criteria:

a. higher number of points
b. superior goal difference
c. higher number of goals scored
d. higher number of wins
e. lower disciplinary points total based only on yellow and red cards received in all group matches (red card = 3 points, yellow card = 1 point, expulsion for two yellow cards in one match = 3 points)
f. position in the overall European Qualifiers rankings

Once the four best third-placed teams have been determined, article 21.05 of the regulations explains which third-placed team plays in which tie.

 

[Wilf]

So, we've got North Mac v Netherlands and Ukraine v Austria today. Looks to me like like Ukraine and Austria know that a draw will almost certainly take them both through, leaving Austria as a 3rd placer with 4 points. Particularly as Switzerland finished 3rd in their group, but with a negative goal difference. This is going to get even worse in a couple of days when teams will know exactly what they have to do to get 3rd and go through.

Group C​

P	Team	GP	W	D	L	F	A	GD	Pts	Form
1	The Netherlands	2	2	0	0	5	2	3	6	Won against Ukraine Won against Austria
2	Ukraine	2	1	0	1	4	4	0	3	Lost to The Netherlands Won against North Macedonia
3	Austria	2	1	0	1	3	3	0	3	Won against North Macedonia Lost to The Netherlands
4	North Macedonia	2	0	0	2	2	5	-3	0	Lost to Austria Lost to Ukraine

 

[strung out]

I am predicting Finland and Portugal to be the two third placed teams to miss out.

 

[Wilf]

I am predicting Finland and Portugal to be the two third placed teams to miss out.

Good call on Portugal, lose to Germany and end up with 3 points and a negative goal difference. I've nowt against Portugal, but I would like to see Christiano - 'legal issues' - Ronaldo departing the scene.

 

[Wilf]

I am predicting Finland and Portugal to be the two third placed teams to miss out.

Slovakia could be in trouble if Spain get their act together (they meet in the final game). In fact other than Sweden going through which is a near certainty, anything else could happen in this group:

Group E​

P	Team	GP	W	D	L	F	A	GD	Pts	Form
1	Sweden	2	1	1	0	1	0	1	4	Drew with Spain Won against Slovakia
2	Slovakia	2	1	0	1	2	2	0	3	Won against Poland Lost to Sweden
3	Spain	2	0	2	0	1	1	0	2	Drew with Sweden Drew with Poland
4	Poland	2	0	1	1	2	3	-1	1	Lost to Slovakia Drew with Spain

 

[strung out]

Slovakia could be in trouble if Spain get their act together (they meet in the final game). In fact other than Sweden going through which is a near certainty, anything else could happen in this group:

Group E​

P	Team	GP	W	D	L	F	A	GD	Pts	Form
1	Sweden	2	1	1	0	1	0	1	4	Drew with Spain Won against Slovakia
2	Slovakia	2	1	0	1	2	2	0	3	Won against Poland Lost to Sweden
3	Spain	2	0	2	0	1	1	0	2	Drew with Sweden Drew with Poland
4	Poland	2	0	1	1	2	3	-1	1	Lost to Slovakia Drew with Spain

Yeah, I think Slovakia are going out - Poland and Spain to win in the final round of matches, with Sweden going through in third place.

Although Spain drawing with Slovakia and going out would be hilarious.

 

[Lord Camomile]

The excellent Ben Crellin has produce a spreadsheet for the tournament, which includes this 3rd place 'table':



So, Finland need two out of the following three to happen:

• Spain lose to Slovakia
• Croatia draws with Scotland
• Portugal lose by... four?

I've still not properly bothered to read all the 3rd place rules, so I'm just assuming normal table rules apply to this table and your position in it determines whether you go through or not.

 

[strung out]

These possibilities can also be added to the three above:

• Portugal lose to France and Germany lose by four goals to Hungary
• Spain beat Slovakia by three goals and Poland fail to beat Sweden

 

[The39thStep]

Think tonights results actualli increase opportunitoes for Portugal to go through to the next round. Portugal will make the knock outs unless they lose by more than 3 goals against France or draw or lose and Hungary beat Germany.
Possible first knock out game could be against Holland, then the winners of Denmark/Wales. Might end up with Germany in the semis. All hyperthetical of course.

 

[Badgers]

Modric is now the youngest and oldest player to score in the Euros

 

[Lord Camomile]

Group F of Death kind of lived up to its name, with no team getting more than one win!

 

[The39thStep]

 

[Wilf]

So, if England beat Germany they are probably favourites to get to the final in their half of the draw. Maybe joint favourites with the Netherlands, but a decent run otherwise. Beating Germany though...

 

[littlebabyjesus]

I find a few of those odds surprising.

Italy are very low. Belgium are very high given their tough draw. I don't really fancy Croatia, but to put Belgium 36 times more likely to win than Croatia is very odd.

I'd put England just above Germany, personally. I know there's history, but Germany clearly have problems at the moment and England are at home.

 

[discokermit]

View attachment 275078

according to this belgium should be about 5.6. on betfair they are 11.5.
also france 5.1, on betfair 5.5.
some value to be had if this chart is correct.

 

[Badgers]

Luis Enrique's trousers cost €600

 

[MrCurry]

Not convinced with this model. I suppose some of this speculation (this is of tonight) depends on how the groups finish but I can't believe Spain's chances are higher than Belgium's or Italy's. Or that Denmark with ) points are based higher than Sweden who have 4pts or even Wales who have 4pts

View attachment 274360

any update on this table, for the teams now left in the tournament?

 

[Rebelda]

Is this true?



Source: BBC

 

[The39thStep]

any update on this table, for the teams now left in the tournament?

Cant get onto their site for some reason but the latest from their Twitter feed is

Spain is our new projected champion at 24.6%
England has a 48.5% chance of making it to the finals

 

[JTG]

Group F of Death kind of lived up to its name, with no team getting more than one win!

And with everyone being dead before the serious rounds