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[elbows]

I'll wait for the 2pm number before saying any more about that I think.

This looks like something I must read, havent had time just yet:

'The timing of one-shot interventions for epidemic control'

https://scholar.harvard.edu/files/joelmiller/files/the_timing_of_one_off_interventions_for_epidemic_control.pdf

 

[rookwood]

Ah so its a more subtle narrative where we are described as currently being at an in-between phase. Formal declaration of new phase yet to come.

Coronavirus: UK moving towards 'delay' phase of virus plan as cases hit 115

Measures will be ramped up to slow the spread of coronavirus as the UK moves past the "contain" phase.

www.bbc.co.uk

I think at least in part this is because they got their messaging wrong on Tuesday. They did a set piece, gave the strong implication Contain would last for a good while longer, and they have had to do a handbrake turn on messaging in the last 36 hours. So having outlined a Contain/Delay etc. phase pattern, they’re now massaging it not to freak everyone out/damage their own credibility.

That’s not to say that medically/epidemiologically (and you are better placed to say) there can’t be ‘in-between phases’ (it would seem obvious there can be, these categories are in any event arbitrary to a point), just that message-wise they have got themselves into a difficult position here.

They need to make a decision about sport in general to be honest, and Cheltenham in particular. They know that is going to be a game-changer message-wise no doubt, but anyone who’s ever been to Cheltenham knows you can’t really be serious about ‘delay’ if you let events like that proceed. 134,000 people of many different nationalities using the train station, for one thing.

 

[Wilf]

I've read hardly anything with regard to official and governmental documentation (so should probably shut up...) but there's also how things 'feel'. Everything should be about overall numbers, transmission rates, the extent of community transmission, clusters and the rest, but probably won't be. In terms of how it feels, getting beyond 100 ramps up government anxieties about getting blamed for inaction, but I'd guess something nearer 200 in, say, 30 separate locations takes us to the 'close everything down' phase.

 

[Flavour]

what does "everything" mean when you say "close everything down"? and are you prepared to imagine the consequences of closing "everything" down for say, three months?

 

[sihhi]

what does "everything" mean when you say "close everything down"? and are you prepared to imagine the consequences of closing "everything" down for say, three months?

Anecdotal but Wuhan has had it for about half that time and my friend with parents still essentially cooped up in their apartment there think it was the right thing to do thus far.

 

[phillm]

Anecdotal but Wuhan has had it for about half that time and my friend with parents still essentially cooped up in their apartment there think it was the right thing to do thus far.

With Italy currently showing a mortality rate of 3.5% it is the most rational and logical thing to do.

 

[Bilbo]

i think they need security guards at the isles in supermarkets that sell hand sanitizes and toilet roll i was in my earlier and the hand sanitizes where all gone and toilet rolls nearly all sold out i don,t think it helps that it is 24 hours supermarket i think if this virus hangs about then the hours will change. Then on another note i saw on eBay some hand sanitizes going for up to £80 quid or more i hope eBay will take note of this and stop people making a profit from this virus... but i suppose business is business

 

[sihhi]

The messages are all over the place.
Here's White House scientific advisor: "Reassuringly, in South Korea, no one has died under 30. This is reassuring to us."

 

[Fez909]

i think they need security guards at the isles in supermarkets that sell hand sanitizes and toilet roll i was in my earlier and the hand sanitizes where all gone and toilet rolls nearly all sold out i don,t think it helps that it is 24 hours supermarket i think if this virus hangs about then the hours will change. Then on another note i saw on eBay some hand sanitizes going for up to £80 quid or more i hope eBay will take note of this and stop people making a profit from this virus... but i suppose business is business

It should be illegal.

Karma will sort them out if shit goes really bad, though. I can't imagine toilet roll gouging cunts can protect themselves without a police force to back them up.

 

[D'wards]

I'm pretty sure the Euros and Olympics will be cancelled/postponed.

Quite upset about that, I well look forward to these month long sports festivals

 

[elbows]

It should be illegal.

Karma will sort them out if shit goes really bad, though. I can't imagine toilet roll gouging cunts can protect themselves without a police force to back them up.

COVID-19: sales and pricing practices during coronavirus outbreak

The CMA has been monitoring reports of changes to sales and pricing practices during the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak.

www.gov.uk

The Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) wants to ensure that traders do not exploit the current situation to take advantage of people.

It will consider any evidence that companies may have broken competition or consumer protection law, for example by charging excessive prices or making misleading claims about the efficacy of protective equipment. And it will take direct enforcement action in appropriate cases.

In addition, the CMA will assess whether it should advise Government to consider taking direct action to regulate prices.

 

[rookwood]

It should be illegal.

Karma will sort them out if shit goes really bad, though. I can't imagine toilet roll gouging cunts can protect themselves without a police force to back them up.

To be fair though I am just a fat bastard. I bought four packs of mini creme eggs in Iceland before and the checkout person blatantly thought I was stockpiling.

That‘s just to get me through the next two days

 

[sihhi]

Quick escalation in India. All Delhi primary schools closed until 31 March.

 

[Wilf]

what does "everything" mean when you say "close everything down"? and are you prepared to imagine the consequences of closing "everything" down for say, three months?

Loose talk/wording on my part really. I just meant get into line with the measures taken in Italy, something along the lines of shutting schools and universities along with major sports/ents events (plus a wider encouragement to work at home, protect the supply of certain items etc.).

 

[LDC]

Couple of useful bits here, simple explanatory video of how it kills and an article covering some of the healthcare treatments.

Management of COVID-19 patients admitted to stepdown or ICU

CONTENTS Rapid Reference 🚀 Initial tests to guide management Chest CT findings Organ support Cardiovascular Respiratory Noninvasive respiratory support Invasive mechanical ventilation Infectious disease – antibiotics Renal Hematology Neurology Immunomodulation Steroid Tocilizumab Baricitinib...

emcrit.org

 

[bimble]

Quick escalation in India. All Delhi primary schools closed until 31 March.

That’s a huge move. They’ve got fewer confirmed cases than UK and half of those Italian tourists I think.
Really interesting how different responses are.

 

[Fez909]

2pm

Nope. They're currently massaging the figures and you'll get them at....<does hand wavey gestures>

 

[not-bono-ever]

Stop being so negative- look at the upside

Redirect Notice

www.google.co.uk

 

[rookwood]

That strikes me as fairly staggering and very likely cherry-picked. Trumpian.

 

[sihhi]

Dan U and anyone else in adult care
Nursing home in Madrid. 10 residents infected. 1 member staff.
Working assumption is staff member is patient 0 of the cluster.

Korea death toll at 41, total cases 6,088.

The growth will not slow unless action is taken, including travel and mobility limitations in areas and shutdown or shift into virtual space of non-essential sectors education, entertainment, retail, finance, tourism, construction. The longer the delay the more severe the death rates and negative effects.

 

[sihhi]

View attachment 200699
That strikes me as fairly staggering and very likely cherry-picked. Trumpian.

It's mindblowing taking it on the chin would be allowing Britain to become a host of cities worse than Wuhan, with healthcare workers decimated after insufficient PEP production.

 

[elbows]

That strikes me as fairly staggering and very likely cherry-picked. Trumpian.

That sort of talk represents the natural position of Johnson and his ilk.

However in this case it sounds like that bit was a setup to juxtapose against a rather different sentiment expressed with the next thing he said. Lets see it in that context:

One of the theories is perhaps you could take it in on the chin, take it all in one go and allow the disease to move through the population without really taking as many draconian measures. I think we need to strike a balance.

I think it would be better if we take all the measures that we can now just to stop the peak of the disease being as difficult for the NHS as it might. I think there are things we may be able to do.

From Guardian live politics updates page earlier, which also featured this:

Brexit: Barnier says UK is refusing to commit to remaining signed up to ECHR as part of EU deal – as it happened

Rolling coverage of the day’s political developments as they happened, including the Commons health committee questioning Prof Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer

www.theguardian.com

And this:

As the Spectator’s James Forsyth has pointed out, Johnson used to say that his hero was the mayor in the town features in the movie Jaws, because he kept the beaches open when he was under pressure to close them. (As Jeremy Vine wrote in a revealing article, Johnson was so fond of this argument he used it repeatedly.) Now (and, for anyone with an elderly relative, thankfully), Johnson seems to be adopting a different approach to risk.

I'm not really looking forward to the moment where people who dont fit the 'elderly' label die and cause an adjustment to the sentiment expressed in brackets near the end there. Well I mean obviously I think that sentiment needs adjusting, the bit I'm not looking forward to is the deaths and the more nuanced reality dawning on people.

 

[not-bono-ever]

View attachment 200699
That strikes me as fairly staggering and very likely cherry-picked. Trumpian.

It’s one of the default disaster scenarios that UKG have kept as default since the peak of the Cold War - I mentioned this earlier - this is the doing fuck all option and seeing what happens afterwards. These are the binary choices presented to politicians when we have no infrastructure designed to deal with specifics

 

[editor]

Relax everyone!

Trump calls WHO's global death rate from coronavirus 'a false number'

 

[rookwood]

That sort of talk represents the natural position of Johnson and his ilk.

However in this case it sounds like that bit was a setup to juxtapose against a rather different sentiment expressed with the next thing he said. Lets see it in that context:




From Guardian live politics updates page earlier, which also featured this:

Brexit: Barnier says UK is refusing to commit to remaining signed up to ECHR as part of EU deal – as it happened

Rolling coverage of the day’s political developments as they happened, including the Commons health committee questioning Prof Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer

www.theguardian.com

And this:



I'm not really looking forward to the moment where people who dont fit the 'elderly' label die and cause an adjustment to the sentiment expressed in brackets near the end there. Well I mean obviously I think that sentiment needs adjusting, the bit I'm not looking forward to is the deaths and the more nuanced reality dawning on people.

Thanks for this. Given his track record I think his only concern is political fallout, so we’ll see how that shifts. Christ his hero was that prick in Jaws...

 

[cupid_stunt]

The growth will not slow unless action is taken, including travel and mobility limitations in areas and shutdown or shift into virtual space of non-essential sectors education, entertainment, retail, finance, tourism, construction. The longer the delay the more severe the death rates and negative effects.

You keep posting this in almost all your posts, yet the various Chief Medical & Scientific Officers across the four nations of the UK disagree that this is the right time to take such measures, I have more faith in them than you.

Did you know that only 2 European countries banned all travel from China, the first was Italy, that worked so well, didn't it?

 

[Jeremiah18.17]

I've read hardly anything with regard to official and governmental documentation (so should probably shut up...) but there's also how things 'feel'. Everything should be about overall numbers, transmission rates, the extent of community transmission, clusters and the rest, but probably won't be. In terms of how it feels, getting beyond 100 ramps up government anxieties about getting blamed for inaction, but I'd guess something nearer 200 in, say, 30 separate locations takes us to the 'close everything down' phase.

At current rate of increase, then, we may be at the “close things down stage” by Monday, if not before.

 

[Flavour]

With regards Italian mortality rate - I don't think it's really 3.5%, it's partly down to their being lots of people who have it with v mild symptoms without even realizing it, and also, the population is the 2nd oldest in the world so more susceptible

 

[planetgeli]

Korea death toll at 41, total cases 6,088.

Mortality rate 0.67%

 

[cupid_stunt]

Mortality rate 0.67%

On a par with China, outside of Hubei province, and with Chris Whitty's view that it will be below 1%.