Buddy Bradley
Pantheistic solipsist
Realistically, what can it do? Hospitals can't magic extra beds and staff out of thin air - aside from implementing much more ruthless triage, there can't be that many options open to them.
Coronavirus - worldwide breaking news, discussion, stats, updates and more
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LDC
On est tous des pangolins
Supply protective equipment. Brief and reassure the staff. Put posters up for patients. Update the public and internal websites with the latest info. Start clearing beds as much as possible. All sorts of stuff. Anyway, working out what to do isn't my fucking job, but I hope it is someone's, but nothing I've seen so far has made me think they're ready for this.
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Jeff Robinson
Marxist-Lentilist: Jackboots and Jackfruit
Trump voters are a bigger threat to humanity than coronavirus.
existentialist
Tired and unemotional
Slightly less immediate, perhaps. I think I am fairly safe from the prospect of particles of Trump voter being breathed into my lungs, for example.
sihhi
Tyranny, like hell, is not easily conquered
Dan U spring-peeper
How can a school shutdown be worse than a pandemic if carers' children are looked after someone else who will also be at home for a period of 2-3 weeks?
3 and a half million were evacuated in the war.
The longer you delay it the longer people won't want to take others in for fear of their being infected.
Come on, urge some proactive action plus mitigation.
sihhi
Tyranny, like hell, is not easily conquered
Wuhan recovered 36 year old died March 2
www.scmp.com
‘Recovered’ Covid-19 patient dies as China reports more repeat cases
A 36-year-old man has died in Wuhan from respiratory failure days after being discharged from hospital.
www.scmp.com
elbows
Well-Known Member
Well yes, I'm one of the people who is in two minds about the timing of big measures, I would not want to start them too early, or too late. And my attitude as to when 'too late' would be is different from some other posters, because I do not picture these measures as being designed to eradicate the disease utterly from this country, or prevent all sizeable outbreaks, but to make a large difference to the number of cases and how intensely they happen.
I do have a problem with the word panic in this context though. I know it is used as shorthand at times like this, but its still a loaded term that implies overreaction or counterproductive behaviour. School closures are nothing of the sort, they are a vital tool.
andysays
Love and solidarity
It doesn't have to be an all or nothing thing though.
Obviously there's a need to keep essential services going, so a total lockdown would be an unnecessary over reaction, but there could and IMO should be some controls and limiting of nonessential travel etc to attempt to slow down rate of transmission.
phillm
Trolling through Life (TM)
You would have thought all these 30k civil servants working on Brexit could be put straight away onto coronavirus preparedness teams. A real leader would say given the enormous and immediate threat that we are facing then we have asked the EU to suspend Brexit until further notice. but no....what a shitstorm of shit.
TopCat
Putin fanboy
I have been concerned. Anxiety about it is really shit.Good news
I've also been feeling unwell the past few days so know what you've been going through. My symptoms aren't Covid-like (yet?) but I'm still mildly concerned.
Health anxiety is shit
Yes, there is a bit of Millennium Bug-ism about the delay measures. By which I mean that when that came to nothing, everyone said it was a waste of time spending time and money mitigating it, ignoring the potential causal relationship between the mitigation and the fact it came to nothing.
With school closures, if they work and significantly delay spread, you can expect the same responses.
phillm
Trolling through Life (TM)
Professor Chris Whitty said that, even for high-risk age groups, catching coronavirus did not mean you would be “a goner”.
He said that firstly “we intend to do what we can to make sure that they are the group that is least affected, as far as we can”.
He added: “Even in the most vulnerable, oldest groups, in the very stressed health service which Hubei was at the point when most of the data come out of, the great majority of people who caught this virus – and not everybody will – survived it, the great majority, over 90 per cent.
“So, I think it’s easy to get a perception that if you are older and you get this virus then you’re a goner – absolutely not, the great majority of people will recover from this virus, even if they are in their 80s.”
He said that firstly “we intend to do what we can to make sure that they are the group that is least affected, as far as we can”.
He added: “Even in the most vulnerable, oldest groups, in the very stressed health service which Hubei was at the point when most of the data come out of, the great majority of people who caught this virus – and not everybody will – survived it, the great majority, over 90 per cent.
“So, I think it’s easy to get a perception that if you are older and you get this virus then you’re a goner – absolutely not, the great majority of people will recover from this virus, even if they are in their 80s.”
He is of course absolutely spot on, but as he also knows science communication is often about perceptions rather than realities of risk. People will be worried all the same; you wouldn't get on a rollercoaster with a 90% chance of survival, and agency plays a key role in how we perceive risk, i.e. there is a fundamental difference psychologically between an elective risk (getting on the rollercoaster) and a non-elective one (you don't choose to get infected). That's what partly drives the fear.
elbows
Well-Known Member
I suppose we are already at the point where the first stage of limiting has begun - this is a voluntary stage where you dont actually have to impose any controls, rather peoples attitude towards the virus and it 'feeling closer to home' starts to affect their behaviour in ways that start to have some impact on transmission.
And when it comes to things like events being cancelled, some of that will probably be driven not by outright bans and government edict, but by companies etc doing risk assessments and scrapping stuff of their own accord, as we have already started to see.
Flavour
hang the bankers
Anyone organizing an event who cannot afford to not go ahead with it because they are relying on the event income to sustain themselves will almost certainly not cancel it unless they are forced to do so by government.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Yeah, I should have said 'at the earlier stages' and I was only talking about some events. I expect government to impose restrictions too, I'm just on about stuff that gets cancelled before then.
sihhi
Tyranny, like hell, is not easily conquered
I quite agree instead we have football continuing all over, Cheltenham Festival, Six Nations, large concerts etc etc. This has to be the first step.
I urge those thinking about people in need of care to consider the normal-then-woosh-hospitals-overwhelmed' no space or time or anything for elderly who've had a fall or wounds that need dressing or anything.
We have to take action in advance, Italy is on course to become Iran and Britain is on course to become Italy.
Someone made the point that the effects on the health service come with a lag of 4 weeks - 1/2 week incubation, 1 week symptoms, 1 week oxygen then bam needing ICU.
Add the fact that exponential growth 9>27>81>... means the number of cases the following week will be even more where is the space?
The Canadian WHO respiratory doctor who went to Wuhan described it as "the Wayne Gretzky of viruses — people didn’t think it was big enough or fast enough to have the impact it does”
I am inclined to trust him.
There was a report today saying Australia wasn't planning for community transmission until 6 weeks from now, the British government has figures saying there will be a peak in May/June but how can this be predicted?
elbows
Well-Known Member
I would not assume a lag of 4 weeks as a rule. Many cases had shorter incubation periods, for example, and the rate at which peoples health declines to critical also varies considerably.
Predictions of timing are based on models. They might be off by quite a lot though, and also the absolute peak of first epidemic wave can be quite some time after outbreaks reach notable size.
Unless we have been very lucky with the extent of seeding to this country from China in January, I dont think the government hopes of remaining in broadly the same phase for the whole of this month will be sustained. And even then, there has clearly been a lot of seeding from Italy more recently.
Predictions of timing are based on models. They might be off by quite a lot though, and also the absolute peak of first epidemic wave can be quite some time after outbreaks reach notable size.
Unless we have been very lucky with the extent of seeding to this country from China in January, I dont think the government hopes of remaining in broadly the same phase for the whole of this month will be sustained. And even then, there has clearly been a lot of seeding from Italy more recently.
sihhi
Tyranny, like hell, is not easily conquered
In Britain hardly anything a Bond premier and a trade meeting. Everything relies on government advice and insurance.
sihhi
Tyranny, like hell, is not easily conquered
Australia was about 6 weeks off, Britain thus 3 weeks off. Bad news for Personal Protective Equipment.
Fez909
toilet expert
It's like reverse Y2K.
Italy and South Korea spent fuck all on Y2K problems and escape relatively unharmed.
Now they're the ones who are doing the most testing and the ones who are facing the biggest outbreaks.
not-bono-ever
meh
With this kind of risk management scenario, get it right and you won’t get any acknowledgment if it is needed, but if it isn’t eventually needed, expect to be bollocked. I sidestep this kind of activity outside my personal life
not-bono-ever
meh
andysays
Love and solidarity
The government starting to instruct organisers to cancel events seems to me to be a sensible step to take now, as much to demonstrate that this is a serious issue and that dealing with it will require some sacrifices to be made, in addition to the actual risks of transmission at such events
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elbows
Well-Known Member
Soon, but I would not like to guess exactly when. Previous government pandemic plans seem to have been based off of European protocols, and I believe reaching 100 confirmed cases was a trigger for a new phase. Whether that is still in place this time I cannot say for sure, maybe they will be more nuanced about it, although the UK press were mentioning the 100 figure weeks ago so maybe that is still the threshold for a 'new phase'.
Actually as I write this I am now seeing headlines about UK new phase so I think I am already behind that curve. Im off to read the detail.
phillm
Trolling through Life (TM)
As bizarre as it looks it would prevent any heavier aerosols going her way from getting in her lungs or onto her face I would have thought and help to remind us not to touch our faces. And unlike the masks that have disappeared, it is not beyond the ingenuity of most to knock something similar up. I would also add gloves to that look as well.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Ah so its a more subtle narrative where we are described as currently being at an in-between phase. Formal declaration of new phase yet to come.
Coronavirus: UK moving towards 'delay' phase of virus plan as cases hit 115
Measures will be ramped up to slow the spread of coronavirus as the UK moves past the "contain" phase.
www.bbc.co.uk
2hats
Dust.
Which phase of phase transition do they hope to be in?Ah so its a more subtle narrative where we are described as currently being at an in-between phase. Formal declaration of new phase yet to come.
Coronavirus: UK moving towards 'delay' phase of virus plan as cases hit 115
Measures will be ramped up to slow the spread of coronavirus as the UK moves past the "contain" phase.www.bbc.co.uk
