Coronavirus - worldwide breaking news, discussion, stats, updates and more

[Part-timah]

Isn't that the point in the Us...10 dead on current mortality rates means there may be a 1000- 1500 running around shedding untested

I cant understand why they are charging for tests in the USa for the uninsured

Just seen some Aussie documentaries on life in China in the lockdown zone One was four corners
Holy shit...doors to apartment blocks being welded locked , corpse's being picked up on the streets ...medical staff having full on breakdowns.

Have you got a link to the documentaries.

 

[D'wards]

I often shy away from answering that sort of question.

However, when its about a country that is closing all schools, playing sports behind closed doors, and whose PM has said ‘Our hospitals, despite their efficiency, risk being overwhelmed, we have a problem with intensive-care units’ then perhaps I should just come out and say that they should have a very serious think about the likely picture there in the weeks ahead, and here too. I would only go myself if I was the sort of person who would find holidaying in a war zone to be an interesting experience.

(source of quote Schools and universities in Italy to close over coronavirus spread )

Just spoken to her. They've decided not to go, which is a shame but it's for the best we all think.
No refunds though

 

[FridgeMagnet]

I was wondering about the effect on UK politics this afternoon and tbh I'm not sure that there will be one.

We are already in a state where the NHS is pretty broken and, despite a relatively mild winter up until now, has been unable to cope - and it gets worse every year and will be worse next year. It's been fucked for years. Yet people still voted Tory. In the event of serious effects from a new virus, ITUs will be completely overloaded, but how much difference will that make to how people vote in five years' time? The panic isn't going to last forever - it will reduce and/or become a new general pandemic which people treat as "just one of those things".

 

[Supine]

Lots of caveats around this but a pharma company have shipped the first batch of a vaccine against covid for use in human trials.

Most pharma developments fail along the way but it's bloody impressive to get something to this stage so quickly. Lots more options are following in its tracks.

Redirecting

time-com.cdn.ampproject.org

 

[elbows]

I was wondering about the effect on UK politics this afternoon and tbh I'm not sure that there will be one.

We are already in a state where the NHS is pretty broken and, despite a relatively mild winter up until now, has been unable to cope - and it gets worse every year and will be worse next year. It's been fucked for years. Yet people still voted Tory. In the event of serious effects from a new virus, ITUs will be completely overloaded, but how much difference will that make to how people vote in five years' time? The panic isn't going to last forever - it will reduce and/or become a new general pandemic which people treat as "just one of those things".

Alternatively, it could be a large enough event that it changes those who have lived through it.

This pandemic has that potential I think, but whether that potential will be fully realised its still a bit too early for me to say. And it can be hard to predict the psychological consequences of even dramatic pandemics, the 1918 one is often referenced in modern times due to the death rate, but in other ways it was considered 'the forgotten pandemic'. I havent explored this much yet, it might have something to do with not appearing as much in the literature of some countries as people would have expected, and say compared to the pandemic of 1889.

 

[two sheds]

Just spoken to her. They've decided not to go, which is a shame but it's for the best we all think.
No refunds though

Yes good decision I'd say.

 

[weltweit]

My mum and stepdad going next week to Rome.
He runs a one man printer supply business. If they are quarantined the business will go under.
Should they go?

Up to them.
Personally I wouldn't go at the moment no.

 

[Jennastan]

There's a specific thread for these sort of images, away from this serious thread.

Coronavirus meme/panic/fear mongering general thread

The other thread in p&p is serious and has been attracting more attention lately, so this thread is for anything trivial, funny, conspiracy bull, etc Let's start with the people trying to cash in on the outbreak :facepalm:

www.urban75.net

i thought they were serious - people can't get proper PPE and improvise. The worry is real.

 

[Part-timah]

Just spoken to her. They've decided not to go, which is a shame but it's for the best we all think.
No refunds though

A small price to pay compared to what could happen.

 

[sihhi]

I was wondering about the effect on UK politics this afternoon and tbh I'm not sure that there will be one.

We are already in a state where the NHS is pretty broken and, despite a relatively mild winter up until now, has been unable to cope - and it gets worse every year and will be worse next year. It's been fucked for years. Yet people still voted Tory. In the event of serious effects from a new virus, ITUs will be completely overloaded, but how much difference will that make to how people vote in five years' time? The panic isn't going to last forever - it will reduce and/or become a new general pandemic which people treat as "just one of those things".

I think the manner of the disease and deaths will cast impressions




from Iran

They will say we didn't know but they have had lessons China, Japan, Korea, Iran, Italy, France pointing the danger of inaction.

 

[sihhi]

Here's a good graph showing the effects of non-pharmaceutical measures and social distancing on all respiratory infections:

It shows path lab results for viruses in Hong Kong hospitals (not COVID tests).
The main influenza strain red and the main cold virus just drop close to zero (w/e 23 Feb) not for want of tests carried out but because of social distancing (everyone wearing masks, deliveries outside houses no opening doors, no restaurants or parties, telework, staggered travelling to work and hours of work, absolutely no mass gatherings, 14 day police enforced geo-ID quarantine from the mainland)

Almost identical thing happened with SARS in 2003 in Singapore and Hong Kong coughs and sneezes also disappeared - because of this distancing.

If there's not enough social distancing COVID will spread very quickly and overpower health resources here.

 

[elbows]

 

[Part-timah]

Another study finds a higher rate of infection in children: Community Transmission of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2, Shenzhen, China, 2020

 

[elbows]

Even without the olympics I didnt expect the data from Japan to be very good.

The chief of South Korea’s National Health Insurance Service described the Japanese government’s handling of the novel coronavirus crisis as “political,” with the upcoming Tokyo Olympics at stake.

Kim Yong-ik, president of the NHIS, said the number of infections in the neighboring country could be much higher than reported and that Japan is “not testing enough.”

“If a country does not test and diagnose, COVID-19 will be passed over as a cold, and severe symptoms will be passed over as (unrelated) pneumonia,” he said Tuesday during a live broadcast on YouTube hosted by Rhyu Si-min, a liberal politician who once served as health minister.

Japan is making a “political decision” due to the Olympics this summer, he added.

The country’s approach to COVID-19 screening stands in sharp contrast with that of Korea, which has tested 131,379 people and identified over 5,600 infections so far.

The Nikkei business daily reported Monday that Japan had tested about 900 people a day on average, while Korea has tested over 10,000 people every day in the interest of early detection and containment of the virus.

Seoul official calls Japan’s reaction to coronavirus ‘political’

The chief of South Korea’s National Health Insurance Service described the Japanese government’s handling of the novel coronavirus crisis as “political,” with the upcoming Tokyo Olympics at stake. 　 Kim Yong-ik, president of the NHIS, said the number of infections in the neighboring country...

www.koreaherald.com

 

[Part-timah]

Not sure if we’ve had this yet but theres a report of a more transmissible variety of Coronavirus thats been detected: The coronavirus could be mutating as scientists claim to have identified a more aggressive strain

 

[Fez909]

 

[scifisam]

There are also consequences of acting early in terms of what percentage of the population will think its an insane overreaction, a disgrace that must be opposed etc.

If you dont try to do it till the number of cases and deaths starts to build significantly then you probably bypass a bunch of that unhelpful 'fuss over nothing' response from sections of the population.

Looking at a couple of threads elsewhere (not on Urban) where people are really going OTT, acting as if the worst case scenario is the only scenario, what also concerns me is the boy who cried wolf factor.

If schools, etc, were shut down for weeks, and the numbers of infected were still really low even given the effects of quarantine (which would make the numbers lower, of course), then it would make it more difficult for people to take a future more deadly virus seriously. They'd remember Grandad suffering because his carer couldn't come round to help him, and neither could his kids because they were stuck at home with their kids who were off school, and they'd remember Uncle Jack losing his home because his zero-hours job laid him off, stuff like that, but they wouldn't remember anyone they knew personally being ill. So when the next virus and quarantine came around, they'd say fuck that.

 

[elbows]

Not sure if we’ve had this yet but theres a report of a more transmissible variety of Coronavirus thats been detected: The coronavirus could be mutating as scientists claim to have identified a more aggressive strain

Thats what the criticism I linked to a few posts ago was about. #2,862

 

[elbows]

Looking at a couple of threads elsewhere (not on Urban) where people are really going OTT, acting as if the worst case scenario is the only scenario, what also concerns me is the boy who cried wolf factor.

If schools, etc, were shut down for weeks, and the numbers of infected were still really low even given the effects of quarantine (which would make the numbers lower, of course), then it would make it more difficult for people to take a future more deadly virus seriously. They'd remember Grandad suffering because his carer couldn't come round to help him, and neither could his kids because they were stuck at home with their kids who were off school, and they'd remember Uncle Jack losing his home because his zero-hours job laid him off, stuff like that, but they wouldn't remember anyone they knew personally being ill. So when the next virus and quarantine came around, they'd say fuck that.

This virus seems quite sufficiently bad that these concerns are rather far down my list of things to worry about. I do not rule out the possibility of it rising up the list, but under those circumstances I would be quite delighted because it would mean things had panned out much better than I could bring myself to hope for right now.

Although the memories of previous pandemics and how they were responded to probably have some impact on reactions to the next one, I suspect that the main driver of peoples reactions is the detail and impact of the outbreak that is occurring at the time. The 2009 flu pandemic turned out to be exceptionally mild in terms of number of deaths, and it probably did have a negative impact in terms of planning and funding for the next one, but I dont think it has blinded people at large to the risks posed by this covid outbreak. Granted people did not have to deal with extreme containment measures in 2009, so any feelings that the whole thing was an overreaction have limited consequences to feed on.

 

[scifisam]

This virus seems quite sufficiently bad that these concerns are rather far down my list of things to worry about. I do not rule out the possibility of it rising up the list, but under those circumstances I would be quite delighted because it would mean things had panned out much better than I could bring myself to hope for right now.

Although the memories of previous pandemics and how they were responded to probably have some impact on reactions to the next one, I suspect that the main driver of peoples reactions is the detail and impact of the outbreak that is occurring at the time. The 2009 flu pandemic turned out to be exceptionally mild in terms of number of deaths, and it probably did have a negative impact in terms of planning and funding for the next one, but I dont think it has blinded people at large to the risks posed by this covid outbreak. Granted people did not have to deal with extreme containment measures in 2009, so any feelings that the whole thing was an overreaction have limited consequences to feed on.

That's the key thing though - lots of people are asking for school shutdowns and the like, and the repercussions of that could easily be worse than this pandemic. I don't just mean economically, though that can lead to deaths too, I mean people dying from lack of care due to their carers being forced to stay home.

And I'm in a high risk group, so I'm not being I'm OK jack, as I've seen people say to other people who think that perhaps we shouldn't go to panic measures just yet. People in high risk groups are more at risk of coronavirus, but they're also more at risk of dying due to lack of access to care.

 

[Marty1]

Parliament may shit for 5 months.

Parliament could be shut for months to tackle coronavirus — The Times and The Sunday Times

Parliament may be suspended for five months to prevent MPs from spreading coronavirus across the country. Britain edged closer to an epidemic yesterday with the biggest daily jump in cases leaving 87 people confirmed as infected. Three of the 36 new cases were intensive care patients who had not...

apple.news

 

[cupid_stunt]

Parliament may shit for 5 months.

Top typo error.

 

[bimble]

Interesting thread here on how completely fucked the US response is, just minimising and all out lying to people.

 

[Buddy Bradley]

So FlyBe have finally collapsed, partially blaming the coronavirus impact on bookings.

 

[LDC]

So FlyBe have finally collapsed, partially blaming the coronavirus impact on bookings.

Separate thread for it somewhere.

 

[MrCurry]

Found an interesting web site today:

Coronavirus Update (Live): 129,471,257 Cases and 2,828,154 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...

www.worldometers.info

It isn't only about coronavirus, there are also stats on all sorts of things.

Good link that. I liked the country-specific section towards the end, with descriptive text about the situation in each territory. Quoting below the Italy update, I’m wondering why is the death rate already so high? 28% of cases with an outcome were deaths - that’s way higher than in China. Overall case numbers are not yet high enough that lack of hospital capacity should be a factor, or is it already, in which case how fucked are we for later this year when you’ll have no chance of an ITU bed?

587 new cases and 28 new deaths in Italy. Total: 3,089 and 107 deaths
Among the 2,706 active cases, 1,344 (50%) are hospitalized, 295 of which (representing 11% of active cases) are in intensive care.
Among the 383 closed cases, 276 (72%) have recovered, 107 (28%) have died.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Good link that. I liked the country-specific section towards the end, with descriptive text about the situation in each territory. Quoting below the Italy update, I’m wondering why is the death rate already so high? 28% of cases with an outcome were deaths - that’s way higher than in China. Overall case numbers are not yet high enough that lack of hospital capacity should be a factor, or is it already, in which case how fucked are we for later this year when you’ll have no chance of an ITU bed?

The 28% is only amongst the 383 closed cases, there's another 2706 active cases, making a total of 3089 known/reported cases, all the figures I've seen from China are percentage of deaths amongst total known/reported cases, so a death rate of 3.5% is a better comparison to China.

At a guess that will drop as more mild cases are detected, the last figures I read on China had the death rate around 2.5-3% in Wuhan/Hubei province, but 'only' 0.5% in the rest of the country.

 

[Buddy Bradley]

I’m wondering why is the death rate already so high? 28% of cases with an outcome were deaths - that’s way higher than in China.

Totally dependent on the country's strategy towards testing. If you decide to test everyone, you'll identify a lot more of the milder cases, and your mortality rate will be lower.

 

[SpineyNorman]

Parliament may shit for 5 months.

Parliament could be shut for months to tackle coronavirus — The Times and The Sunday Times

Parliament may be suspended for five months to prevent MPs from spreading coronavirus across the country. Britain edged closer to an epidemic yesterday with the biggest daily jump in cases leaving 87 people confirmed as infected. Three of the 36 new cases were intensive care patients who had not...

apple.news

It's been shit for a lot longer than that.

This is my favourite marty1 post ever though

 

[LDC]

I work in acute medicine and was in work yesterday for the first time in 2 weeks. The change in attitude was palpable. I had a few conversations with doctors who were seriously worried about how it might go, largely around the need for ICU beds. Most seemed to be expecting a huge explosion in cases soon, and the corresponding collapse of much of our ability to provide the same level of healthcare that we do now. Apparently the hospital hadn't really been doing much until yesterday when it had a meeting that brought up how to prioritize care if things go to shit. Some not very nice decisions will have to be made.

As an aside we have fuck all protective gear still.