Coronavirus - worldwide breaking news, discussion, stats, updates and more

[MrCurry]

Yep, I forgot to factor that in. Thanks!

Not wanting to hammer the point too hard and make us even more depressed, but looking at the graph which traces cases in mainland China on the GIS Johns Hopkins tracker, on 23rd Jan there were 639 reported cases in China, so similar number to the one you inferred. Three weeks later 13th Feb there were 59.8k cases.

 

[sihhi]

Holy hell. Cases found in Najaf, Iraq, schools and universities closed there for 10 days, health ministry urges avoiding conferences, celebrations & other public gatherings, urges everyone to avoid travel to and from Najaf except for emergencies

 

[existentialist]

Was it Dr Margaret Harris, who showed up representing WHO in this video from 4:00? If so, I wouldn’t give any weight to her opinion as she seems to know nothing about anything. Half her answers in below interview were “we don’t know” and if they had simply interviewed a cucumber with “ we don’t know” printed on it, there would have been just as much useful info disseminated as a result.

TBF, I'd far rather a scientist admitted that they don't know something than that they simply pulled some explanation out of their arse so as to appear that they did know. That's conspiraloon country...pretending you have all the answers.

 

[Pickman's model]

TBF, I'd far rather a scientist admitted that they don't know something than that they simply pulled some explanation out of their arse so as to appear that they did know. That's conspiraloon country...pretending you have all the answers.

i do have all the answers

but sometimes i forget where i have put them

 

[Idris2002]

Iran has a far more advanced healthcare system than most Westerners would believe, and despite crippling sanctions from USA. Life expectancy is 75-77, there are 1 million medical students in 51 schools and it has a comprehensive and developed pharmaceutical industry.

The Iranian lad at the next desk is saying that this is for real, and he attributes it to the Iran-Iraq war.

War, what is it good for?

 

[Pickman's model]

The Iranian lad at the next desk is saying that this is for real, and he attributes it to the Iran-Iraq war.

War, what is it good for?

it seems work have placed you and he alphabetically by nationality.

 

[Fez909]

Two schools close over coronavirus fears as pupils show flu signs

Two Cheshire schools have closed after students and staff returned from Italy

www.liverpoolecho.co.uk

 

[Fez909]

I was thinking plenty of hospital visits to cheer people up.

The Iranian Health Secretary has just confirmed he's infected - he's setting a good example for our politicians

 

[sihhi]

The 2% figure is probably too high, due to Chinese under-reporting/under-testing, meaning there could be way more than 1,000 in Iran infected and going about their business.

One could just as well say it is probably too low.

Because for instance 1 out of 19 deaths were included in an outbreak at a nursing home, suggesting underreporting of deaths.

Exclusive: Cluster of Death Found at Wuhan Nursing Home Near Seafood Market - Caixin Global

Exclusive: Cluster of Death Found at Wuhan Nursing Home Near Seafood Market - Among 19 fatalities since Dec. 23, Wuhan Social Welfare Institute reported 1 Covid-19 case though 10 others died from respiratory failure after fever symptoms

www.caixinglobal.com

The medical research has stated 2.3% but possibly higher or lower. We don't know. We should nonetheless adopt the precautionary principle.

 

[elbows]

This is why it’s wrong for people to be looking at the stats which show only 14 UK cases and concluding there’s no ongoing outbreak within UK. It can be, and I would say it’s likely to be the case that there’s uncontrolled onward transmission happening in most countries now, and that we’ll only see the numbers which back that up in a few weeks time.

Thanks for pointing this out clearly!

That is the reason I thought I better do my look back on the start of the 2009 UK H1N1 outbreak when I did. If Scotland ends up detecting community transmission & cases before the rest of the UK then I will probably have something more to say about all that!

As for the numbers, I have no prediction of when exactly. Could start any day now, and then at some point the methods will change. I dont know how many tested & confirmed cases we will get before they change approach, some media reports suggest 100. So we are still likely going to have to infer things about the bigger picture from a small subset.

 

[sihhi]

As for the numbers, I have no prediction of when exactly. Could start any day now, and then at some point the methods will change. I dont know how many tested & confirmed cases we will get before they change approach, some media reports suggest 100. So we are still likely going to have to infer things about the bigger picture from a small subset.

No indication on whether hospitalised flu patients are being tested, right?

 

[elbows]

No indication on whether hospitalised flu patients are being tested, right?

No confirmation that I've found yet, but a few weeks ago Ferguson said it was happening (see my post #1,423 )

 

[two sheds]

It doesn't seem surprising that only half (from above?) of people testing negative are actually free of the virus if symptoms take a while to show. Wouldn't that mean you'd have to quarantine everyone for a few days before testing them to be certain?

 

[elbows]

It doesn't seem surprising that only half (from above?) of people testing negative are actually free of the virus if symptoms take a while to show. Wouldn't that mean you'd have to quarantine everyone for a few days before testing them to be certain?

There are probably several reasons for false negatives. Its a big problem for sure, sometimes it may have made a mockery of quarantine approaches. I dont know what the approach is in the UK either, eg they have released daily info about number of tests performed, not number of people tested, so I dont know if some people have been tested multiple times.

 

[Fez909]

One could just as well say it is probably too low.

I disagree with it being probably too low but see your point that it could be wrong either way.

The main thing is though, that regardless if it's too low or too high, the number of deaths in Iran point to many thousands infected by now.

 

[TopCat]

Where have you heard this?

In our press!

 

[TopCat]

Pick a shitty alt right site. Don't know how that tosser's still here.

We get this from time to time and it bothers me. I cant recollect how long Marty1 has been here for, whether they are a banned returned, are a massive Trump fan.
I have not noticed any Trumpton behaviour from Marty1 but there have been a number of comments that dont say much.

Can we bring it to a head please?

 

[elbows]

Hancock saying you should self-isolate if you've been to northern Italy.

If they show symptoms.

 

[TopCat]

If they show symptoms.

Which they might not do, for weeks

 

[tommers]

If they show symptoms.

He gave two scenarios. Northern Italy + symptoms or quarantined parts even without symptoms.

I couldn't be bothered to type it all out.

 

[TopCat]

Troops apparently surround an all inclusive complex in Tenerife after a guest was treated positive. Tenerife hotel locked down over coronavirus

 

[elbows]

He gave two scenarios. Northern Italy + symptoms or quarantined parts even without symptoms.

I couldn't be bothered to type it all out.

Thanks for the detail. Here is the BBC version of it.

Coronavirus: Britons returning from northern Italy told to self-isolate

Several schools send pupils and staff home after they return from skiing trips in the country.

www.bbc.co.uk

Britons returning from northern Italy are being told to self-isolate in the UK if they show coronavirus symptoms.

Health Secretary Matt Hancock said people with flu-like symptoms who have been north of Pisa are asked to stay at home for 14 days.

The advice also applies to anyone who recently returned from Italy's quarantined towns even if they have no symptoms, he said.

Italy has put 11 towns in Lombardy and Veneto into lockdown.

 

[TopCat]

We can show the Chinese the Europeans can do repression.

 

[elbows]

If I sound unenthused about the UKs approach to containment or mitigation, its because traditionally such decisions here tend to err on the side of 'business as usual'.

 

[elbows]

This time might be different though, too early to tell. Just some tentative indicators at this stage, and it is always possible that Scotlands approach may vary from Englands.

People could be banned from gathering in large numbers to contain coronavirus, Scotland’s chief medical officer has said.

Dr Catherine Calderwood looked to how cases have been dealt with in Italy, with football matches called off and church services in the affected regions cancelled .

Speaking on BBC Good Morning Scotland, she said the government and NHS were working on “containment first” and then – if coronavirus was discovered in this country – a range of measures to try to limit the number of people infected.

“If we do have a cluster, as has happened in Italy, then we move into delaying the spread,” Dr Calderwood said.

“Delaying the spread would mean some of the measures that have happened already in Italy – stopping people coming together in large groups so that one or a few individuals do not spread to many, many more around them.”

2h ago 10:53

 

[sihhi]

Iran Deputy Health Minister confirmed infected:

 

[Flavour]

these containment efforts are all so futile. where i am all the schools are closed but all the kids are out anyway, hanging out together in the streets. what's the point?

 

[Pickman's model]

We can show the Chinese the Europeans can do repression.

we will be harmonised

 

[sunnysidedown]

worth a read:

You’re Likely to Get the Coronavirus

Most cases are not life-threatening, which is also what makes the virus a historic challenge to contain.

www.theatlantic.com

 

[sihhi]

these containment efforts are all so futile. where i am all the schools are closed but all the kids are out anyway, hanging out together in the streets. what's the point?

Where are you?
The aim is to delay the spread, nearly all viruses spread better inside rather than outdoors.