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[elbows]

What I meant was the overall effect of the virus, this is already way more effective at killing people than ordinary flu has been no?

Well I wouldnt choose that language exactly, as different people might read something different into 'effective at killing people'.

The overall effect of the virus depends on the stuff I mentioned in previous post, and the currently unknown mortality rate, what effects mitigation attempts have on the total number of people infected, whether and when we get better at treatment and prevention drugs etc, whether healthcare systems are overwhelmed.

 

[sihhi]

Its fatality rate is very high.

The defining image of the outbreak so far is the one in Wuhan of the victim collapsed dead on the street.

This doesn't occur with flu, this is SARS2 COVID19.

 

[Supine]

What I meant was the overall effect of the virus, this is already way more effective at killing people than ordinary flu has been no?

It's looking that way, but paradoxically lower morbidity rates can lead to higher numbers of deaths if the transmitability is higher. It depends how well it can spread in the 'not ill' population.

 

[elbows]

 

[Part-timah]

Tweet deleted. What was the gist?

 

[elbows]

Tweet deleted. What was the gist?

I have found another one (same video) to replace it with.

 

[Callie]

Its fatality rate is very high.

The defining image of the outbreak so far is the one in Wuhan of the victim collapsed dead on the street.

This doesn't occur with flu, this is SARS2 COVID19.

Source?

 

[Supine]

Source?

Probably bollox. Covid almost certainly doesn’t result in somebody lying perfectly supine in the street.

 

[elbows]

AFP had a similar photo at the end of January, they could not get confirmation of cause of death at that time.

A man lies dead in the street: the image that captures the Wuhan coronavirus crisis

‘These days, many have died,’ says bystander as image shows workers in protective suits and masks taking body away

www.theguardian.com

 

[scifisam]

I was idly wondering whether heat/cold kills the virus. SARS I see is killed by 56 degrees C for 15 minutes:

The Effects of Temperature and Relative Humidity on the Viability of the SARS Coronavirus

The main route of transmission of SARS CoV infection is presumed to be respiratory droplets. However the virus is also detectable in other body fluids and excreta. The stability of the virus at different temperatures and relative humidity on smooth surfaces ...

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

While I was typing into the search bar the autocomplete flagged up "coronavirus killed by alcohol" and "coronavirus killed by drinking alcohol", which sounds perhaps overly hopeful but is certainly worth a try. I presume it will have to be 60% proof or higher though.

If that's true, then, from what I've heard of cruises, most of the people on there will be just fine

 

[elbows]

Unfortunately there will probably be a lot more of this sort of thing in the days ahead.

Austria has denied entry to a train from Italy on suspicion that two travellers might be infected with the coronavirus, the interior ministry said on Sunday.

“Tonight a train on its way from Venice to Munich was stopped at the Austrian border,” the interior ministry said.

The Italian State Railways had informed Austrian train operator OBB that there were two people with fever symptoms on the train, the ministry’s statement said.

The train was now waiting at the Brenner Pass on Italian territory. “The further procedure is currently being discussed together with the Italian authorities.”

It is unclear when the train will be able to continue on its journey, an OBB spokesman said.

Austria’s interior minister Karl Nehammer said earlier on Sunday that a coronavirus task force will meet on Monday to discuss whether to introduce border controls with Italy.

Trains between Italy and Austria resume after passengers test negative for coronavirus

Austria suspended train services over the Alps to Italy for about four hours late on Sunday before restarting them after two travellers tested negative for coronavirus.

www.reuters.com

 

[Yossarian]

Source?

An AFP reporter saw the man about a block away from one of the main Wuhan hospitals treating coronavirus patients - cause of death unclear, though it's certainly not unheard of for people with pneumonia to suddenly collapse.

 

[TopCat]

It was risk assessed that impaired visibility of the driver was more of a danger. Not by me!

That's very poor. The risk could have been mitigated with a different design of mask.

 

[Flavour]

it's all gone mad in italy today. schools, museums, gyms and cinemas all closed for next week in the whole of piedmont and i think lombardy and veneto too.

the funniest news was the turin police saying they wouldn't be breathalyzing drivers. football matches cancelled too.

trains still running but i won't be surprised if services are reduced/cancelled in the coming days.

 

[Part-timah]

A coronavirus related racist attack: Woman attacked after confronting man over racist coronavirus abuse

 

[scifisam]

it's all gone mad in italy today. schools, museums, gyms and cinemas all closed for next week in the whole of piedmont and i think lombardy and veneto too.

the funniest news was the turin police saying they wouldn't be breathalyzing drivers. football matches cancelled too.

trains still running but i won't be surprised if services are reduced/cancelled in the coming days.

Why??

 

[Part-timah]

Why??

Italy faces a sudden surge in covid-19 cases

Events are cancelled, roads are closed—and Matteo Salvini says: “Told you so”

www.economist.com

 

[elbows]

Click on it to see the whole thread.

 

[maomao]

I’m watching the Wuhan flu carefully, I note that the death rate outside China remains extremely low; the difference between what’s being reported in China and what’s being reported out here is really quite odd. Until we get a clearer idea of the actual death rate, via uncontrolled media, there’s no way to figure out how dangerous it actually is.

The high death rates in China may be a consequence of the severe air pollution common there — if you’ve got damaged lungs, a flu-like respiratory infection is a much more serious matter.

I've changed plane in Wuhan twice (though never left the airport) and both times there was zero visibility during landing, the whole city, like many Chinese cities, is covered in a shroud of smog.

 

[farmerbarleymow]

I was idly wondering whether heat/cold kills the virus. SARS I see is killed by 56 degrees C for 15 minutes:

The Effects of Temperature and Relative Humidity on the Viability of the SARS Coronavirus

The main route of transmission of SARS CoV infection is presumed to be respiratory droplets. However the virus is also detectable in other body fluids and excreta. The stability of the virus at different temperatures and relative humidity on smooth surfaces ...

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

While I was typing into the search bar the autocomplete flagged up "coronavirus killed by alcohol" and "coronavirus killed by drinking alcohol", which sounds perhaps overly hopeful but is certainly worth a try. I presume it will have to be 60% proof or higher though.

* stocks up on gin *

 

[Fez909]

WHO rep on radio just now saying they don't care about calling it pandemic as it wouldn't change any advice or measures. Also she said pandemic is used specifically in relation to flu, which I thought was unusual...and wrong?

 

[two sheds]

* stocks up on gin *

I started the experiment last night with some Lamb's Rum (unfortunately only 40%) - it clearly needs to be drunk neat though and it did feel like it burned a bit of a path down. Don't feel any better this morning though .

 

[MrCurry]

WHO rep on radio just now saying they don't care about calling it pandemic as it wouldn't change any advice or measures. Also she said pandemic is used specifically in relation to flu, which I thought was unusual...and wrong?

Was it Dr Margaret Harris, who showed up representing WHO in this video from 4:00? If so, I wouldn’t give any weight to her opinion as she seems to know nothing about anything. Half her answers in below interview were “we don’t know” and if they had simply interviewed a cucumber with “ we don’t know” printed on it, there would have been just as much useful info disseminated as a result.

 

[TheHoodedClaw]

AP reporting this from Iran:



50 dead just in Qom!

 

[Part-timah]

AP reporting this from Iran:



50 dead just in Qom!

Fuck. I feel this is significant. Elbows & Supine whats your take?

 

[krtek a houby]

It's spread to our prefecture, but very much in a minority of cases. Still, have friends panicking and there's a possibility of it having an affect on our local small businesses (food outlets, restaurants, bars etc).

I feel that the fear is spreading somewhat faster than the damn virus

 

[Supine]

Fuck. I feel this is significant. Elbows & Supine whats your take?

It’s certainly getting close to the p word. I think the next couple of weeks will be key.

 

[Part-timah]

Drive thru coronavirus testing being trialled by NHS.

'Drive-thru' coronavirus testing to start in Britain on Monday

Suspected cases asked to drive to NHS health centres where nurses in Hazmat gear will swab them through the window

www.telegraph.co.uk

 

[elbows]

WHO rep on radio just now saying they don't care about calling it pandemic as it wouldn't change any advice or measures. Also she said pandemic is used specifically in relation to flu, which I thought was unusual...and wrong?

They are talking about their own world, the regulations that were signed up to by many countries, the bureaucratic systems and guidelines that were crafted (mostly with flu in mind).

In terms of the international health regulations, it was the declarations of a Public Health Emergency of International Concern that trigged and unlocked various things.

However, in terms of public information campaigns, repurposing various things that were designed for flu pandemics to help with this coronavirus, their own credibility and relevance, not looking like the worst of bureaucracy, they really should have a good think about how to use the word pandemic in this context, and be ready to announce one at some point. Its also possible that individual countries may still have stuff in their laws or financial rules that are unlocked by a pandemic declaration. And since the WHO have gone on so much in recent weeks about an 'infodemic', and would like to position themselves as a gatekeeper of this stuff, its not good for them to help foster a vacuum that others are more than ready to fill.

 

[elbows]

Fuck. I feel this is significant. Elbows & Supine whats your take?

Only reason this particular piece of info isnt a significant leap for me right now is that recent days already placed Iran and Italy in the dreaded 'deaths at the same time as community outbreak discovered' camp. I think I recently linked to a tweet about why that is bad news.

But yes, the number of deaths is significant because it suggests things about the total number of infections there, and how long ago things started there. I sort of expect to see rather a lot more of these indicators this week (and not just in Iran), and I will be rather relieved and surprised if we dont.