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Interesting I didn't know about Italy.

Its a fast developing story. And some aspects of it have certainly been reported in the UK, including in football news:


If they make Italy the great big main headline story and direct huge amounts of attention towards it then, a bit like the decision to use the word pandemic or not, it might be considered to be one of those bits of news which can have a notable impact on public concerns about risks to themselves, because things will seem a bit closer to home. Since recent days have already featured news that has changed the tone, and such adjustments are ongoing, there could be a little bit of lag before they are quite ready for the UK message and mood music to advance to quite that stage. Plus much depends on whether number of confirmed cases in Italy leaps up dramatically from the point its already reached, and how quickly. What I am saying could be obsolete rather quickly indeed, I dont know what will be detected this week or whether phase of UK public health message will change more obviously sometime this week, it might.
 
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If this goes fully unconfined a few zeros will be added to that figure.
Well it is spreading from Hubei and Wuhan into wider China, Korea, Singapore, Japan, Iran, potentially Africa, Italy etc..

The spread does seem quite gradual but perhaps that's the way of these things. Perhaps it just creeps up on us.
 
I'm surprised there have only been 60 or so cases in Hong Kong, I thought there would be thousands by now. The lesson seems to be that face masks really do protect against the coronavirus, as long as absolutely everybody wears them.
 
Yossarian I don't understand the situation in Hong Kong either, they had open borders with China for a long time.

However I'm not sure about the effectiveness of masks, people in China wearing them and still contracting the virus.
 
Yossarian I don't understand the situation in Hong Kong either, they had open borders with China for a long time.

However I'm not sure about the effectiveness of masks, people in China wearing them and still contracting the virus.

They seem to be more effective at stopping people spreading the virus - so while some people may have thought they were wearing masks to protect themselves, they were actually protecting everybody else.
 
Its a fast developing story. And some aspects of it have certainly been reported in the UK, including in football news:


If they make Italy the great big main headline story and direct huge amounts of attention towards it then, a bit like the decision to use the word pandemic or not, it might be considered to be one of those bits of news which can have a notable impact on public concerns about risks to themselves, because things will seem a bit closer to home. Since recent days have already featured news that has changed the tone, and such adjustments are ongoing, there could be a little bit of lag before they are quite ready for the UK message and mood music to advance to quite that stage. Plus much depends on whether number of confirmed cases in Italy leaps up dramatically from the point its already reached, and how quickly. What I am saying could be obsolete rather quickly indeed, I dont know what will be detected this week or whether phase of UK public health message will change more obviously sometime this week, it might.

La Repubblica, Italy's version of the Guardian, has a live feed here:

In Italy, it seems a classic case of hospital-based spread. At least there is some honesty about this:

“All those who have tested positive are people who on February 18-19 had contacts with the emergency room and the hospital of Codogno,” Regional Health Councillor Giulio Gallera said, adding 259 people had been screened in the area in the past two days and 35 had tested positive.

I think there is something lacking about Iran's announcements. Already there have been 6 deaths. In Qom, there are Chinese workers and engineers doing railway work, and people there know this and were told blatant lies about the shooting of the Ukraine passenger plane blaming for three days, so there's more scepticism.



.
 
The ‘unthinkable’ is terrifying to envision.

Im already hearing advice (social media) to stock up on canned goods and water, just in case.

Why is water something we would need to stock up on?
🤔

I'm on a mains water scheme that's actually very good...modernised 15 years ago. About the best in the country...apparently.

How would a coronavirus outbreak effect supply of water?

Anyone?
 
Why is water something we would need to stock up on?
🤔

I'm on a mains water scheme that's actually very good...modernised 15 years ago. About the best in the country...apparently.

How would a coronavirus outbreak effect supply of water?

Anyone?

The WHO estimates worker absenteeism at around 35% during pandemic waves. This is not just through illness but for all considered reasons. If any organisation loses 35% of its staff the service it provides will be reduced. However, as I’ve previously mentioned water is a core part of the UKs Critical National Infrastructure. Its a must have. In the realistic worst case scenario there may be some minor disruption but maintaining an acceptable level of service will be a priority. No need to panic.
 
Oh and I think for various reasons China is doing a better job at containing it than Britain would if there was a large outbreak here.

Heck China built 2 hospitals with more than 2000 extra beds in just 10 days. I can't see the NHS doing that not with current funding.
Even if they did there is no staff. There is not even enough staff to fill the hospitals we have.
A colleague at work recently went to Thailand for holiday, she has come back and self isolated for 14 days as those are our trust guidelines atm.
 
Why is water something we would need to stock up on?
🤔

I'm on a mains water scheme that's actually very good...modernised 15 years ago. About the best in the country...apparently.

How would a coronavirus outbreak effect supply of water?

Anyone?

Yeah, it’s already been discussed up-thread - I was probably being over cautious.
 
As for how the timing of me deciding a pandemic might vary compared to the WHO's timing, its unclear. Based on past events I have been assuming that a big chunk of the mainstream world will decide its a pandemic (if that time clearly comes) well before the WHO formally declares it. But since my previous observations were based on a particular influenza pandemic, and their influenza pandemic phases were clearly defined in a way that non-influenza ones arent, I probably shouldnt assume how far behind the obvious reality the WHO will lag this time. I am going to go and check for how long the delay was in 2009.

Oops, I started looking into this and it looks like there was a period in late May/early June 2009 where, according to some reports of the time, the UK was one of the countries leaning on the WHO to delay the announcement of pandemic phase 6. Unfortunately the supporting articles from the period are often not available now, so I will have to do some more digging on this one. I havent been able to ascertain how much delay this caused, although since phase 6 was eventually declared on June 11 2009, might only be talking about a week or two. And interestingly it was Scotland that ended up acknowledging wider community spread before the UK as a whole was ready for that stance. At the time the UK stuck to a 'tamiflu-based containment strategy' as a big part of their public health message, and seemed reluctant to move on.

Speaking of Scotland, there was this yesterday:


Covid-19, the new form of coronavirus which has killed over 2,000 people around the world, has become a notifiable disease in Scotland.

Health regulations have been updated, requiring doctors to inform health boards about any cases of the disease.

They must share patient information "if they have reasonable grounds to suspect a person they are attending has coronavirus".
 
Are you and your husband there still? I know you were keen to go home but I don't know how possible that is for you x

Yeah, we're in Seoul right now. We're planning on heading back into China this week and being quarantined in our apartment for 14 days. :facepalm: Our city seems to have things under control and I have some sausages in my freezer I can't stop thinking about. :oops:
 
Holy cow. New one in Hong Kong visited clinic 6 times in space of 9 days, eventually hospitalised and diagnosed. His flat and apartment block now been deep cleaned.

Also some sort of cluster in a Hong Kong Buddhist temple group - 3 confirmed all visited there early February.

A 29 year old female doctor in Wuhan confirmed 31 Jan, died yesterday.
 
Regarding when to start going on about pandemics, and other issues of public health communication, these risk comms people believe in preparing the public well in advance. Probably not everyone in their field, and related fields, agrees with everything they say, but they do broadly represent the sort of approach I favour and have argued for here in the past.


That article also contains a link to a similar article they did in regards swine flu in 2009. This also happens to be one of the few remaining sources I can find that makes reference to the UK leaning on the WHO in 2009. But its a rather long piece that probably could have been made a lot more concise. And in the 2009 piece, they could rely on certain assumptions about flu, not all of which currently apply to this coronavirus. But its a topic close to my heart. And given the way containment and the narrative have gone with coronavirus so far, some of their key points seem extremely relevant.

 
Regarding when to start going on about pandemics, and other issues of public health communication, these risk comms people believe in preparing the public well in advance. Probably not everyone in their field, and related fields, agrees with everything they say, but they do broadly represent the sort of approach I favour and have argued for here in the past.


That article also contains a link to a similar article they did in regards swine flu in 2009. This also happens to be one of the few remaining sources I can find that makes reference to the UK leaning on the WHO in 2009. But its a rather long piece that probably could have been made a lot more concise. And in the 2009 piece, they could rely on certain assumptions about flu, not all of which currently apply to this coronavirus. But its a topic close to my heart. And given the way containment and the narrative have gone with coronavirus so far, some of their key points seem extremely relevant.

I for one thank you for the measured sifting of the evidence. The risk communication people, who elected them? How are they accountable?
 
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