What’s your gut feeling to how this will pan out?
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- Thread starter weltweit
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What’s your gut feeling to how this will pan out?
Supine
Newt Member
It's semantics to an extent but what your talking about is an epidemic.
elbows
Well-Known Member
I have spewed hundreds of words in recent days on the subject of pandemic, in order to explain where I am at right now. I doubt people want me to drone on further about all the detail of exactly what I said.
I was hoping that would count as more than sufficient context that I may then be able to talk about various pandemic themes without being accused of prematurely declaring a pandemic.
Many of my posts are long and tedious. Sometimes I will try to compensate for this by taking shortcuts with my language. Must I qualify my use of the term pandemic every time I use it here now, can I not rely on people to have read some of my more recent posts on the subject?
Well no, clearly I cannot rely on that. So here I go again:
A pandemic seems rather inevitable. Many of the indicators are in place, and various experts who communicate their opinions on social media have changed their tone in recent days, as have the US CDC and the WHO. The exact language used varies, and for example the WHO are still claiming that the window of opportunity is not quite shut yet. Others think it is shut. Nobody I have seen so far is actually declaring a pandemic, but plenty of people who are far better qualified than me now consider it to be something of an inevitability.
andysays
Love and solidarity
Can you remind us (ideally in a simple, non technical way) of how it's significantly different to those two.
And what was it prevented those two from becoming global pandemics in the way it's feared this one might?
elbows
Well-Known Member
I dont really have any beyond the one I've had since Jan 20th that we would be rather lucky to avoid a pandemic, and that the numbers involved and the characteristics of the virus were not on our side.
It seems to have panned out that way so far, but even if it carries on that way I'm not really expecting a stage to be reached that unlocks a new set of gut feelings in me.
Plus a large part of the reason I spend so long nerding out on these subjects is that I want real info, I dont want to rely on gut feelings.
Part-timah
Well-Known Member
The chances of a pandemic are high but that should not induce panic. This will likely grind on for months if not a year or 2. Problems will arise and they will be addressed. Disruption may occur but generally core needs will be met and life will go on.
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
What I am talking about is the definition according to the OED - a disease that spreads over a whole country or the whole world.
Part-timah
Well-Known Member
elbows
Well-Known Member
We'll probably be best to wait ages for proper scientific comparisons and studies into this. So please consider the following to be tentative:
Factors may include:
How easily spread to other people it is.
How visible it is.
Timing.
These sorts of factors can combine, and include how long it takes for symptoms to show up, how big the initial outbreak got before anyone noticed, how well standard methods for reducing spread work, how many mild (and easily missed) cases there are. Having really reliable tests can make quite a difference too.
There was some international spread of SARS, including a large local outbreak in Canada, but ultimately containment still succeeded. This sort of detail is an important consideration that should be taken into account by people like me when making statements about whether a pandemic seems inevitable. Unfortunately the nature of outbreaks in some countries seems to resemble wider community spread rather than easily distinguishable clusters. Pandemics stand a much better chance of being prevented if you can identify all the clusters and isolate them. When there are visible signs of this not happening with every case in every country beyond the original outbreak country, pandemic concerns rapidly increase, and thats whats happened this week.
Supine
Newt Member
The Wikipedia definition is a bit more nuanced. A pandemic is increased and sustained transmission in the general population. There is some transmission here but it comes down to a subjective analysis by the experts as to what sustained means.
elbows
Well-Known Member
When it comes to things like novel strains of influenza, the likes of the WHO favoured having a system with a whole bunch of different phases. But these things are tuned to expectations and public communication regarding influenza pandemics, and I have no idea if they intend to use aspects of this framework for Covid-19 or not. In terms of declaring different phases, at this rate it seems a bit late to bother with exactly the same format, but I am bringing it up to provide an indication of where thresholds between pandemic/not a pandemic may be set.
Pandemics
COVID-19 has become the latest pandemic. Learn more about the difference between pandemics, epidemics, and outbreaks; how they’re classified; and how to prevent diseases such as COVID-19.
www.webmd.com
Interesting article from August 2019 highlighting America’s reliance on Chinese pharmaceuticals.
www.cfr.org
How hard is this Coronavirus hitting the supply chain of not just Pharma but general goods around the world?
U.S. Dependence on Pharmaceutical Products From China
Last month, the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission held a hearing on the United States’ growing reliance on China's pharmaceutical products. The topic reminded me of a spirited discus…
www.cfr.org
How hard is this Coronavirus hitting the supply chain of not just Pharma but general goods around the world?
elbows
Well-Known Member
Its the stuff represented by the green bit of this graph that has lead to the change of mood, the talk of new phase/pandemic/the window closing.
(from WHO situation report https://who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200222-sitrep-33-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=c9585c8f_2… _ )
(from WHO situation report https://who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200222-sitrep-33-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=c9585c8f_2… _ )
sihhi
Tyranny, like hell, is not easily conquered
Situation in Iran appears to be very serious:
en.radiofarda.com
I wish I new Farsi but I don't.
On China the watchword is follow what the authorities do, not what the numbers say.
From Weibo (Chinese twitter)
7 navy steamers are bringing 19 new medical teams to Wuhan.
Tier 2 and Tier 3 Jiangxi cities have allowed people out as long as they are wearing masks.
Production will restart in Chengdu supplier factories
Many find the fact that 15,000 Japanese fans went to watch JLeague football wearing masks absurd.
Comment about 23 passengers from the liner failing to be quarantined in Japan but allowed to go home.
According to Chinese media Zhejiang laboratories are apparently at the stage of testing an RNA-based vaccine in animals.
Many reports of police officers dying, there's a memorial compilation photo of 21 police officers dead during the period, one rather ominously a 26 year old male who was found collapsed in his dormitory.
Iranian Doctors Call For 'Long Holiday' To Contain Coronavirus, As Sixth Victim Dies
A group of doctors from various universities of Tehran has called on the government to announce a long holiday until after Nowrouz (New Year) to contain the coronavirus outbreak and prevent the virus from spreading.
en.radiofarda.com
I wish I new Farsi but I don't.
On China the watchword is follow what the authorities do, not what the numbers say.
From Weibo (Chinese twitter)
7 navy steamers are bringing 19 new medical teams to Wuhan.
Tier 2 and Tier 3 Jiangxi cities have allowed people out as long as they are wearing masks.
Production will restart in Chengdu supplier factories
Many find the fact that 15,000 Japanese fans went to watch JLeague football wearing masks absurd.
Comment about 23 passengers from the liner failing to be quarantined in Japan but allowed to go home.
According to Chinese media Zhejiang laboratories are apparently at the stage of testing an RNA-based vaccine in animals.
Many reports of police officers dying, there's a memorial compilation photo of 21 police officers dead during the period, one rather ominously a 26 year old male who was found collapsed in his dormitory.
TopCat
Putin fanboy
Do you remember the series The Survivors?
Yossarian
⏭️
I've never done the "stocking up" thing before, but I've made sure to get a lot of extra cans of food, etc. over the last couple of weeks - as seen in Hong Kong, a sudden rush of panic buying can lead to shortages whether or not there are problems in the supply chain.
If anyone's thinking of getting a new toaster or whatever this might be a good time - I don't think inventories of made-in-China goods will be running out just yet, but since it takes a month to ship things by sea from China, and it's been about a month since many factories closed down for Chinese New Year and didn't reopen afterward, we might be feeling the effects soon.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Some ways this thing might yet fail to reach a status truly worthy of the word pandemic:
Ongoing massive and extraordinary human response makes a huge difference to the viruses ability to expand to full on epidemic levels in numerous countries, even when it has failed to prevent overall containment.
Some aspect of the virus that has not yet become apparent at all turns out to be a thing, and a big limiting factor in its spread, or how the disease is perceived.
Something happens on the medical or detection front that equips us with important new tools in the fight against this virus at a crucial moment.
Note that with different timing and a different magnitude of impact, some of these things may also end up being factors even in the event of a pandemic, that affect the timing and nature of the waves, overall ultimate levels of infection, impact on communities and healthcare facilities, public perceptions of disease severity and risk and indeed whether any pandemic was a 'big deal'.
The concept of a pandemic is one thing. Exactly where we set the threshold for declaring one is another. I have not declared one, because we are have not lurched beyond my own personal threshold just yet. But I certainly have raised the prospect of one, and I did use sloppy language in one post earlier. In the context of a 'how might this unfold' explanation, I did call the current thing 'this pandemic', which was a mistake. I'm glad I was called out for this, even though it has provided me the opportunity to bore on to the extent that I am now boring myself.
As for how the timing of me deciding a pandemic might vary compared to the WHO's timing, its unclear. Based on past events I have been assuming that a big chunk of the mainstream world will decide its a pandemic (if that time clearly comes) well before the WHO formally declares it. But since my previous observations were based on a particular influenza pandemic, and their influenza pandemic phases were clearly defined in a way that non-influenza ones arent, I probably shouldnt assume how far behind the obvious reality the WHO will lag this time. I am going to go and check for how long the delay was in 2009.
Ongoing massive and extraordinary human response makes a huge difference to the viruses ability to expand to full on epidemic levels in numerous countries, even when it has failed to prevent overall containment.
Some aspect of the virus that has not yet become apparent at all turns out to be a thing, and a big limiting factor in its spread, or how the disease is perceived.
Something happens on the medical or detection front that equips us with important new tools in the fight against this virus at a crucial moment.
Note that with different timing and a different magnitude of impact, some of these things may also end up being factors even in the event of a pandemic, that affect the timing and nature of the waves, overall ultimate levels of infection, impact on communities and healthcare facilities, public perceptions of disease severity and risk and indeed whether any pandemic was a 'big deal'.
The concept of a pandemic is one thing. Exactly where we set the threshold for declaring one is another. I have not declared one, because we are have not lurched beyond my own personal threshold just yet. But I certainly have raised the prospect of one, and I did use sloppy language in one post earlier. In the context of a 'how might this unfold' explanation, I did call the current thing 'this pandemic', which was a mistake. I'm glad I was called out for this, even though it has provided me the opportunity to bore on to the extent that I am now boring myself.
As for how the timing of me deciding a pandemic might vary compared to the WHO's timing, its unclear. Based on past events I have been assuming that a big chunk of the mainstream world will decide its a pandemic (if that time clearly comes) well before the WHO formally declares it. But since my previous observations were based on a particular influenza pandemic, and their influenza pandemic phases were clearly defined in a way that non-influenza ones arent, I probably shouldnt assume how far behind the obvious reality the WHO will lag this time. I am going to go and check for how long the delay was in 2009.
TopCat
Putin fanboy
I recollect one big container ship getting sent back in 2006. No coats in marks and spencer that winter.
elbows
Well-Known Member
I lurch around into some of the other territory too, but yes my default does tend to revert to measured waffle.
I look to others for the spice, although plenty of the alarming developments that I have brought up here in the last week or so, especially the talk of 'a new phase' in Japan and elsewhere even before the numbers started coming in to back this up, is my version of spicing things up and trying not to fall too far behind the curve. And I wont be waiting for the press release before using the p word more in future!
Part-timah
Well-Known Member
Want work tracking this coronavirus in Iran?
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Research on Coronavirus in Iran
Research online sources of all types — formal and informal — for information related to Coronavirus outbreak in Iran. Videos, chats, articles, etc....
elbows
Well-Known Member
For an article with todays date, this is poor from the Guardian.
www.theguardian.com
I'm not expecting them to call it a pandemic yet but shit me, even the WHO wont wait for it to be detected in all 195 countries on their list
And the 'not spreading within those countries yet' is a silly thing to say right now, this part of the message should have been adjusted by now.
Another thing I moan about is when the subject of other coronaviruses that affect humans is mentioned, its really poor form to only mention SARS and MERS and not the other coronaviruses that we know circulate in humans and cause a fair portion of colds. But they are nowhere to be found in the Guardian piece.
What is coronavirus and what should I do if I have symptoms?
What are the symptoms caused by the virus from Wuhan in China, how does it spread, and when should you call a doctor?
www.theguardian.com
I'm not expecting them to call it a pandemic yet but shit me, even the WHO wont wait for it to be detected in all 195 countries on their list
And the 'not spreading within those countries yet' is a silly thing to say right now, this part of the message should have been adjusted by now.
Another thing I moan about is when the subject of other coronaviruses that affect humans is mentioned, its really poor form to only mention SARS and MERS and not the other coronaviruses that we know circulate in humans and cause a fair portion of colds. But they are nowhere to be found in the Guardian piece.
weltweit
Well-Known Member
So at the moment it's an epidemic from my limited point of view I don't see the big deal about calling it a pandemic. Does something significant happened if we change the description?
What I think I do know is it is a very infectious virus which kills between 1 and 2% of those it infects, and it predominantly kills those who are slightly weaker than perhaps a robust youth might be. So the elderly and people with pre-existing conditions even heavy smokers.
And at the moment there is no medicine to combat it and there is no vaxine either.
What I think I do know is it is a very infectious virus which kills between 1 and 2% of those it infects, and it predominantly kills those who are slightly weaker than perhaps a robust youth might be. So the elderly and people with pre-existing conditions even heavy smokers.
And at the moment there is no medicine to combat it and there is no vaxine either.
weltweit
Well-Known Member
Oh and I think for various reasons China is doing a better job at containing it than Britain would if there was a large outbreak here.
Heck China built 2 hospitals with more than 2000 extra beds in just 10 days. I can't see the NHS doing that not with current funding.
Heck China built 2 hospitals with more than 2000 extra beds in just 10 days. I can't see the NHS doing that not with current funding.
elbows
Well-Known Member
The word pandemic has connotations, for that and other reasons authorities prefer to reserve the word for a particular moment, and use the announcement of one to give a new push to various plans and messages. I'll leave it at that for now.
Oh Italy. The less the UK press (well really I mean things like the front pages of BBC and Guardian websites, I havent done a proper study) draw attention right now to the unfolding picture there, the more I want to pay attention. Especially as it has a certain degree of similarity to what we have just seen with Iran, in terms of initial deaths coming around the same time as case discoveries, with all that implies.
I was not trying to defend dodgy regimes in the past when I suggested that many aspects of information/case discovery lag were not actually regime specific and should be expected in many other places. Places where we would not be inclined to immediate frame events as symptoms of a dubious regime and their failings.
uk.reuters.com
Oh Italy. The less the UK press (well really I mean things like the front pages of BBC and Guardian websites, I havent done a proper study) draw attention right now to the unfolding picture there, the more I want to pay attention. Especially as it has a certain degree of similarity to what we have just seen with Iran, in terms of initial deaths coming around the same time as case discoveries, with all that implies.
I was not trying to defend dodgy regimes in the past when I suggested that many aspects of information/case discovery lag were not actually regime specific and should be expected in many other places. Places where we would not be inclined to immediate frame events as symptoms of a dubious regime and their failings.
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