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[elbows]

I for one thank you for the measured sifting of the evidence. The risk communication people, who elected them? How are they accountable?

Who elected me? How am I accountable?

I dont think I have the energy for a proper discussion about this right now, but its probably obvious from my posts that I value getting information and opinion for a broad array of sources, ideally taking into account expected bias of various sources, even good ones.

Maybe I could have been a good little technocrat myself, but I have the wrong attitude towards many things for that. I favour a world of open information, open, broad decision making, giving the public the information.

At the same time, I know that we need specialists, but there should be more room for generalists too. In a world full of both, working in an open way that anyone can join in with, we could hopefully cancel out a lot of awful crap.

 

[TopCat]

You are doing a grand job.

 

[elbows]

The detectable softening up process can be alarming.

Probably one of the things that makes me post so much in these sorts of threads is that I seem to develop a desire to help people see certain aspects coming, not sticking to the schedule and limitations of the official/mainstream framing at all times.

I'd rather not have a softening up stage, I'd rather all that stuff was baked into what people are initially told instead. Or at least I'd be wary of building up peoples expectations about what containment is expected to achieve, and other stuff like that, and then having to obviously change tune later.

There are limits though. I think I baked most of the possibilities into what I've been saying since the start of the thread, but I still couldnt get too far ahead of known reality. Perhaps some people read between the lines with what I started going on about in regards Singapore, South Korea, Japan in the last 8 days, and have got a weeks head-start on the new mood. Whether this is actually useful in any way I have no idea at all!

 

[elbows]

It was a weird experience trying to do a similar thing in 2009. Because as pandemics go, that one was subject to a lot of understandable indifference, once the low mortality rate and some other aspects became clear. It was still a pandemic with plenty of human tragedies, but its fatality rate, severe case rate, and the way that it targeted the young far more than the old, changed the healthcare burden and how people perceived it. And before it turned into large, sustained community outbreaks in the UK, we already had data from what happened at that stage in the USA.

It doesnt seem like this coronavirus, assuming it becomes a pandemic, will be the same story, so I am in personally uncharted waters.

 

[elbows]

I suppose the news that four people from the cruise ship that have been flown back to the UK have tested positive is one of the least surprising bits of news.

Coronavirus: Four new UK cases among ship evacuees

The patients caught the virus on the Diamond Princess cruise liner, bringing the total UK cases to 13.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[andysays]

Four of the cruise liner evacuees who arrived in Britain yesterday now diagnosed positive

 

[sihhi]

They're incomparable, different viruses, tens of times more deadly than the other.

Third death in Italy was on an inpatient oncology ward. Looks like hospital transfer.

 

[sihhi]

I suppose the news that four people from the cruise ship that have been flown back to the UK have tested positive is one of the least surprising bits of news.

Coronavirus: Four new UK cases among ship evacuees

The patients caught the virus on the Diamond Princess cruise liner, bringing the total UK cases to 13.

www.bbc.co.uk

In which case, why was the coach driver not wearing PPE? The aim is to slow down new cases not allow them to increase.

 

[Supine]

In which case, why was the coach driver not wearing PPE? The aim is to slow down new cases not allow them to increase.

It was risk assessed that impaired visibility of the driver was more of a danger. Not by me!

 

[cupid_stunt]

I suppose the news that four people from the cruise ship that have been flown back to the UK have tested positive is one of the least surprising bits of news.

Coronavirus: Four new UK cases among ship evacuees

The patients caught the virus on the Diamond Princess cruise liner, bringing the total UK cases to 13.

www.bbc.co.uk

That takes the total of Diamond Princess passengers that left Japan & tested positive on return to their own countries to over a dozen*, more than those that tested positive on the ship when it was first quarantined, which as we know ended-up being almost 650 after this failed quarantine attempt.

* That doesn't include the 14 that the US took home despite testing positive in Japan, but includes the 4 that tested negative in Japan, but positive in the US.

Considering the intention of the quarantine was in order to stop passengers leaving the ship & spreading it in Japan & across the world, and then secondly protecting those on the ship, the plan has been shown to be a total failure.

Although, I understand Japan was a bit fucked somewhere between a rock & a hard place, because they had nowhere else to quarantine almost 4,000 people.

FFS - Sky News has just reported that these 4 had been tested in Japan, but were allowed to travel before the test results came back.

 

[elbows]

Although, I understand Japan was a bit fucked somewhere between a rock & a hard place, because they had nowhere else to quarantine almost 4,000 people.

It was a difficult situation but I had every faith that Japanese bureaucracy would make it much worse!

I mean, just look at this for yet another example:

Japan won’t test medical workers who came in close contact with passengers on the quarantined Diamond Princess cruise ship docked near Tokyo, the NHK broadcaster reported on Sunday (Feb 13).

Doctors and nurses who don’t have symptoms won’t be examined because they have "mastered the technology to prevent infection,” the report said, citing the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare.

Japan won’t test medical workers on cruise ship for virus

TOKYO: Japan won’t test medical workers who came in close contact with passengers on the quarantined Diamond Princess cruise ship docked near Tokyo, the NHK broadcaster reported on Sunday (Feb 13).

www.thestar.com.my

 

[two sheds]

I was idly wondering whether heat/cold kills the virus. SARS I see is killed by 56 degrees C for 15 minutes:

The Effects of Temperature and Relative Humidity on the Viability of the SARS Coronavirus

The main route of transmission of SARS CoV infection is presumed to be respiratory droplets. However the virus is also detectable in other body fluids and excreta. The stability of the virus at different temperatures and relative humidity on smooth surfaces ...

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

While I was typing into the search bar the autocomplete flagged up "coronavirus killed by alcohol" and "coronavirus killed by drinking alcohol", which sounds perhaps overly hopeful but is certainly worth a try. I presume it will have to be 60% proof or higher though.

 

[cupid_stunt]

And, there're claims that colloidal silver is a cure for coronavirus.

Good job Dr_Jazzz isn't still posting on here.

 

[two sheds]

I should perhaps try to honour his legacy

 

[sihhi]

It was a difficult situation but I had every faith that Japanese bureaucracy would make it much worse!

I mean, just look at this for yet another example:

Japan won’t test medical workers on cruise ship for virus

TOKYO: Japan won’t test medical workers who came in close contact with passengers on the quarantined Diamond Princess cruise ship docked near Tokyo, the NHK broadcaster reported on Sunday (Feb 13).

www.thestar.com.my

Rather like our Public Health England 15 minute rule when all experts in China state 20 seconds is plenty.

The situation in Korea seems to be complicated by the fact that Patient 31 went to the funeral of the church founder's brother where lost of people from all over Korea also attended.
There is a clear epicentre in Daegu but all over Korea now.

 

[lazythursday]

I am going to fill my freezer tomorrow and stock up on pain killers. And make an appointment to make a will. This has started to feel very alarming indeed. I'm more worried about the potential chaos of a shutdown than actually dying, and think it's probably best to start panicking a few days ahead of everyone else.

 

[Fez909]

I am going to fill my freezer tomorrow and stock up on pain killers. And make an appointment to make a will. This has started to feel very alarming indeed. I'm more worried about the potential chaos of a shutdown than actually dying, and think it's probably best to start panicking a few days ahead of everyone else.

You should stop reading the news if you're reacting like this, it's clearly not good for you.

 

[weltweit]

Rather like our Public Health England 15 minute rule when all experts in China state 20 seconds is plenty.

The situation in Korea seems to be complicated by the fact that Patient 31 went to the funeral of the church founder's brother where lost of people from all over Korea also attended.
There is a clear epicentre in Daegu but all over Korea now.

If those numbers are cases that tested positive then they have a massive outbreak!

 

[elbows]

The BBC used the p word.

The BBC's medical correspondent Fergus Walsh said it seems increasingly likely that the spread of the new coronavirus will become a pandemic - or global outbreak.

"The combined situation in South Korea, Iran and Italy point to the early stages of pandemic," he said. "In each of these countries we are seeing spread of the virus with no connection to China."

From the bottom of Four new UK coronavirus cases among ship evacuees

 

[lazythursday]

You should stop reading the news if you're reacting like this, it's clearly not good for you.

You might be right. But I have simply started to think about whether I am prepared to deal with what people in other towns (albeit relatively few so far) are already dealing with. The consensus seems to be growing that containment isn't going to work. I'd rather be prepared, given pretty dodgy lungs.

 

[weltweit]

..
I'd rather be prepared, given pretty dodgy lungs.

Yes, I was a smoker for a while, I doubt I am ideally placed to flirt with this virus.

But on the brighter side, there is no evidence the virus is on the loose in Britain yet.

 

[elbows]

Given that we are well past the point where concrete assurances can be given about any possible undetected community spread, and thus whether anyone here could be coming down with it, I thought it was worth having a quick look at what the seasonal picture is looking like in terms of other respiratory viruses.


From the latest weekly influenza report. https://assets.publishing.service.g...kly_national_influenza_report_week_8_2020.pdf

 

[vanya]

I’m watching the Wuhan flu carefully, I note that the death rate outside China remains extremely low; the difference between what’s being reported in China and what’s being reported out here is really quite odd. Until we get a clearer idea of the actual death rate, via uncontrolled media, there’s no way to figure out how dangerous it actually is.

The high death rates in China may be a consequence of the severe air pollution common there — if you’ve got damaged lungs, a flu-like respiratory infection is a much more serious matter.

 

[weltweit]

I don't know how much to trust the figures coming out of China.

Certainly I doubt the death ratio is likely to be less than they are reporting.

 

[cupid_stunt]

I don't know how much to trust the figures coming out of China.

Certainly I doubt the death ratio is likely to be less than they are reporting.

I suspect it will be lower, because they are struggling to test the massive numbers involved, therefore lots of mild cases will not be included in the total official figures of those infected.

 

[Part-timah]

Most experts expect the mortality rate to drop. However, there are pressures that may increase the mortality as well as reduce it.

 

[weltweit]

I suspect it will be lower, because they are struggling to test the massive numbers involved, therefore lots of mild cases will not be included in the total official figures of those infected.

Yes I take your point.

But I think the fatality rate won't be as low as normal flu, or I think there would be less fuss about this virus.

 

[Part-timah]

Be aware the mortality rate is many times higher than seasonal flu. It may come down but it will most likely remain significantly higher than normal flu.

 

[elbows]

But I think the fatality rate won't be as low as normal flu, or I think there would be less fuss about this virus.

Even a fatality rate approaching that of normal flu could lead to this level of fuss, because its also a question of how many people are liable to get infected.

Flu in a normal flu season has less people to target, because of all those who are already immune to various degrees (including those offered by vaccination).

Thats why a flu epidemic can be big news, it might only be as fatal in percentage terms as the flu of other years, but loads more people get it, so lots more deaths than a non-epidemic year.

 

[weltweit]

Even a fatality rate approaching that of normal flu could lead to this level of fuss, because its also a question of how many people are liable to get infected.

Flu in a normal flu season has less people to target, because of all those who are already immune to various degrees (including those offered by vaccination).

Thats why a flu epidemic can be big news, it might only be as fatal as the flu of other years, but loads more people get it, so lots more deaths than a non-epidemic year.

What I meant was the overall effect of the virus, this is already way more effective at killing people than ordinary flu has been no?