Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
Extremely severe or harmful
By contrast viable means in this context capable of surviving,which is more apt
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- Thread starter weltweit
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By contrast viable means in this context capable of surviving,which is more apt
two sheds
Least noticed poster 2007
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
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elbows
Well-Known Member
There is a lot of jargon, some of which I use too much myself, when it would be better to use more common terms.
In this case I was just having a stab at what the intended word was supposed to be. The term I came out with can be used in this context, eg 'Ability to remain virulent after environmental exposure', but other terms can convey the same meaning and be more likely to be widely understood.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Nothing wrong with using that word in that context, but I was just suggesting which word in particular sihhi meant to use.
Anyway I am boring myself now. Will resist temptation to liven things up with some worrying new stories, even though the WHO are now pissing me off with positive spin that rather stands in contrast with China feeling the need to implement increasingly draconian measures.
weltweit
Well-Known Member
I am sure I have used virulent in the context of this virus, but I don't think virile sounds right
weltweit
Well-Known Member
I am glad China is stepping up their policy of containment, it seems to me that if the population of Hubei stay at home, thus hopefully not getting infected any more than they already are, there is a chance the virus could run out of new hosts and thus come to an end.
MrCurry
right after this urgent rest
If severe containment measures like that do prove to be effective, then you’d have to anticipate similar measures being used much earlier in other centres of outbreak. Is it even feasible over here though, where the population is, perhaps, somewhat less compliant than the typical Chinese citizen?
elbows
Well-Known Member
Tricky decisions. That sort of burnout inevitably happens with a virus in communities eventually, even without human intervention. But obviously if you can reach that conclusion more quickly/with less people getting infected along the way, its worth considering. Has to be weighed up against all the downsides though, you dont want the measures to cause more problems than the disease.
The 'fate of the world' is only partially connected to what happens in Hubei now though, so the end of the virus there is not the end of the story.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Its hard to predict quite how far attempts here would go, and my fallback position in most matters is 'never say never'.
There are already some hints of what might be attempted here, I will try to cover some of them later today. Some of these could go ahead even if there is no prospect of full containment, because if they can affect the pace and proportion of the public infected in the first wave, they can alter the burden on healthcare etc.
Cid
Proper break this time
China has also had security in metro stations etc in place for a while now. With bag scanning etc... so I imagine, initially at least, part of the containment strategy was just adding to that. Obviously not the case in the uk, where actual people are cut out wherever possible (this is also the case in China to some extent of course, just perhaps not in police and security).
elbows
Well-Known Member
I'll start with stuff that certainly isnt on the UK agenda at the moment.
www.theguardian.com
Pedantry activated: And no, the virus is not also known as Covid-19, thats the name of the disease, not the virus.
Coronavirus: UK headteachers told to stay calm and keep schools open
Public health advisers will send out new virus guidelines this week
Pedantry activated: And no, the virus is not also known as Covid-19, thats the name of the disease, not the virus.
Cid
Proper break this time
Yep.
I mean I’ve generalised that massively from what people are saying on my wechat, and a few wider impressions. But I think it’s pretty reflective of how people function in general. Combined with practical necessities of getting back to work etc.
elbows
Well-Known Member
There is a WHO graph to help with that, which would make me a bit more optimistic if it told something approaching the full story, but sadly it does not. WHO decided to stick with lab-confirmed cases on their dashboard, so cases that have been counted due to the new approach to diagnosing cases in China are not included at all.
(from Operations Dashboard for ArcGIS )
Cid
Proper break this time
Ah. I am going to guess that Chinese media have been running with that massively. Not hugely impressed with WHO on this.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Its difficult for them. Sometimes aspects of their messages annoy me, but they are attempting multiple balancing acts and they are not simply attempting to put a positive spin on everything.
Its useful that they stuck with the old methodology for the numbers on the graphs, so we can observe one or two things with some consistency over time. But they still need to come up with a decent way of incorporating the new numbers and clinical definition of cases soon.
Some of the things they say that annoy me, annoy me less when I properly consider the nature of the 'infodemic' they are trying to counter. There is a load of awful hysterical rubbish out there that I have barely touched on, that does need countering. Unfortunately the nature and priorities of entities like WHO also mean their ideal world would feature a monopoly on public information for them and their national equivalents. I therefore tend to assume that any battle against the 'infodemic' by the likes of the WHO will contain aspects I support, and aspects I view with suspicion. Especially since I remember things like their attitude to the Haiti cholera outbreak, when they and the UN were full of denial in regards the possibility that a camp for UN peacekeepers next to the river was the likely source of the outbreak. 2010s Haiti cholera outbreak - Wikipedia
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
Why is it worrying?
Those 105 quarantined are from the second rescue flight from Wuhan, almost 100 from the first flight were quarantined & have now been discharged after serving their 14 days, most likely these other 105 will be too.
Out of the 9 cases confirmed, 8 have recovered & been discharged.
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
Hospitals prepare for coronavirus epidemic to sweep Britain
Hospitals have been ordered to take new measures to stop the coronavirus in the UK as experts said there is a “distinct possibility” that up to 50% of Britons could be affected.Health officials plan to use 24 NHS hospitals to treat patients in the event of a surge in infections. They may also expanwww.thetimes.co.uk
Hospitals have been ordered to take new measures to stop the coronavirus in the UK as experts said there is a “distinct possibility” that up to 50% of Britons could be affected.
Health officials plan to use 24 NHS hospitals to treat patients in the event of a surge in infections. They may also expand NHS 111 services to cope with a rise in calls.
I think the NHS will very quickly be overpowered,
Fucking hell, you're a right doom and gloom merchant, it's as if you are hoping the world is coming to an end.
For those unaware, this poster is the one that posted nonsense on the main thread, about whole villages in China being wiped-out & dead bodies being burnt in massive bonfires!
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
For the more sane posters, I've been at a family gathering today, which included my SiS, who is a senior member of staff at Worthing Hospital.
There's been no concerns by the medical staff over Covid-19, but they are pissed-off over the media circus that descended on the hospital this week, which together with fuckwits on social media, have spread fear amongst the community, resulting in them wasting valuable time & resources on dealing with cancelled appointments, and trying to reassure patients that the hospital is safe.
It was one GP that did 2 shifts in A&E on the 4th & 5th Feb., A&E was closed for a couple of hours for a deep clean, the GP has been given the all clear & discharged from the isolation hospital in London, and he appears not to have infected anyone else.
There's been no concerns by the medical staff over Covid-19, but they are pissed-off over the media circus that descended on the hospital this week, which together with fuckwits on social media, have spread fear amongst the community, resulting in them wasting valuable time & resources on dealing with cancelled appointments, and trying to reassure patients that the hospital is safe.
It was one GP that did 2 shifts in A&E on the 4th & 5th Feb., A&E was closed for a couple of hours for a deep clean, the GP has been given the all clear & discharged from the isolation hospital in London, and he appears not to have infected anyone else.
elbows
Well-Known Member
If you intend to police the range of concerns expressed towards this outbreak by questioning some posters sanity, then you and I are probably destined for quite the bunfight.
Combustible
Well-Known Member
Also there's the fact that the vast majority of people in cities live in housing communities (xiaoqu's). It not only makes it easier to stop/record everyone coming in and out, but also there are building managements who can collate information on everyone and where they've been, and I guess they have played a large part in contact tracing. Villages have village leaderships who can do the same thing. I flew back into China last Wednesday and the local police station called me when I was travelling back from the airport asking where I had been etc. The number of new cases in Zhejiang have dropped significantly in the last few days, there were 5 new cases today (3 in one city Wenzhou). I don't necessarily think these numbers are massively faked, because so many people have essentially sat at home for nearly 3 weeks. The problem is what happens when work starts again proper. I get the impression the media is trying to play down a bit the prospect of immediate normality, I think the current line is that it will likely be later in the spring time.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Yes, I am under the impression that we are now within the window of time where signs of the containment measures achieving something should start to show up in the numbers, if they have made a big difference.
I havent used the word fake when discussing official data because there are all sorts of reasons why the numbers would not be expected to show a full picture, but rather only the tip of the iceberg.
Its not very easy to attribute causes to any trends seen in the numbers. I am still allowing myself a small amount of optimism in relation to some numbers coming out of China (though not all of them), but it often ends up feeling like I need a few more weeks before even having a tentative stab at describing the situation as improved, and now seems to be no exception. Often a week then passes and I still feel like I need a few more weeks.
Thanks for the info about your own situation, it is very useful to hear about this stuff.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Dont get me wrong, I am glad you are posting the various bits of good news, especially since that stuff will often be overlooked at a time like this.
Nor do I think there is anything wrong with frequently expressing frustration with the various things you consider to be excessively negative.
But one of the strengths of these sorts of discussions on forums is that we can accommodate quite the range of info, opinions, levels of optimism or gloom, etc. That can be how balance is achieved here, we dont need everyone to keep a level head at all times and get their own balance spot on, we dont have to ignore various stories about government preparation that appear in the press. Collectively a picture with some balance should form, even if some of us take some themes to one extreme or another at times.
Nor do I think there is anything wrong with frequently expressing frustration with the various things you consider to be excessively negative.
But one of the strengths of these sorts of discussions on forums is that we can accommodate quite the range of info, opinions, levels of optimism or gloom, etc. That can be how balance is achieved here, we dont need everyone to keep a level head at all times and get their own balance spot on, we dont have to ignore various stories about government preparation that appear in the press. Collectively a picture with some balance should form, even if some of us take some themes to one extreme or another at times.
JimW
支那暗杀团
Pleased to read that Beijing's youngest confirmed case, a nine month old girl, came out of hospital recovered today: 北京9月龄确诊新冠肺炎患者今天治愈出院 ETA her mum and elder sister better too.
spring-peeper
Well-Known Member
Canada is bringing home the boat people.
They will be quarantined at the Nav-Center near Cornwall.
I've stayed there a number of times. The building is set quite far back from the road that leads to Cornwall.
Fb person pasted the below link.
Not sure what the fuss is. Do they think that the quarantined will walk the several kilometers just to infect the town's residents? Does he think the people from Cornwall will try to sneak up on the complex?
They will be quarantined at the Nav-Center near Cornwall.
I've stayed there a number of times. The building is set quite far back from the road that leads to Cornwall.
Fb person pasted the below link.
Not sure what the fuss is. Do they think that the quarantined will walk the several kilometers just to infect the town's residents? Does he think the people from Cornwall will try to sneak up on the complex?
