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Well, of course, but we can see that the situation in Brazil is not currently orders of magnitude worse than what has been experienced in various European nations, which is useful context in understanding the scale of things.

You’re assuming all other factors are the same... access to healthcare, accurate recording of cause of death, actually recording deaths etc.
 
Thanks. Maybe because I was looking at it on mobile. Report link -



They do address the correlation with wealth thing. And they say that after adjusting for it, the link is still clear. I'm not a statistician though so am unable to assess the reasoning.
They do, and thanks for posting it. Crucially, they don’t just identify the obesity-death link by stacking obesity rates against death rates by country. They do it using an ANOVA approach (which I still have some technical quibbles over, but recognise these are unlikely in practice to matter), which basically asks things like “within a country, is there a difference in rate, and can we see this difference consistently across multiple countries?”
 
Cases are on the rise all over Italy, I think it's a matter of weeks before another full lockdown unfortunately, though there's absolutely no appetite for it. Maybe it won't go back to like how it was in March 2020 but the entire country in "red zone" is a distinct possibility. Meanwhile the island of Sardinia is in "white zone" meaning life has essentially "returned to normal" (with masks obv)
 
Just a quick post, mainly because I'm annoyed.

Phoned my 87 y/o father who has Parkinston - he has no idea when he will be able to get the vaccine.

He says it doesn't bother him, but it bothers me.

If he is in the UK he should have had it a long time ago. Phone his doctor.
 
Portugal
Today 22 deaths 642 new cases
Overall vaccine roll out slow, mainly due to production targets not being met in the EU procurement scheme. We still haven't completed the most vulnerable group. However, as the decline in cases, death, and hospitalisations continues, the President has just gone through the fortnightly short consultation meetings with all the parties represented in Parliament to hear their views and proposals before the State of Emergency is reviewed and renewed.

You can get a flavour of what the parties say by their short press releases and the mood is generally one of a cautious approach to de-escalating the present confinement regulations. Some debate about the R number ie is it .7 or.9, if it's the latter then it's rising with no confirmation at this stage by DSG (Health) and thank heavens we don't have the press and media pushing the boundaries about opening up etc. Looks likely that consideration will be given to schools opening, possibly child care and hairdressers in the first stage. Then non essential shops, bars and cafes etc. Some parties are arguing for a de-escalation by tiers (see map below where red = extreme high risk above 760m cases per 1000, orange= very high risk 480-960, yellow =high risk=240-480m, and white =moderate below 240 per 1000 )

The long term hope is that tourism in some form based on either proof of negative test or vaccine proof will begin May however at the moment there are no direct flights to the UK and the land borders are closed with Spain with the exception of those with work permits.

The UK variant is 65% of cases, there have been 3 reported cases of the Brazil one.

1615407350622.png
 
Just a quick post, mainly because I'm annoyed.

Phoned my 87 y/o father who has Parkinston - he has no idea when he will be able to get the vaccine.

He says it doesn't bother him, but it bothers me.

That does sound extremely late? My dad, age 79, has just had his first shot yesterday - this is in Germany, obviously way behind the UK in that respect, like 6 or 8 weeks later.
So no matter how much Canada is lagging behind on vaccinations, surely age 87 with Parkinsons he should be getting a date at least?

Eta: Yikes, just had a google and found this Toronto responds to criticism that it is falling behind other regions in vaccinating people over the age of 80.

Am I reading the article right in that from the 15th of this month general booking for the over 80s is opening? Apols if I am stating the obvious or misunderstanding something, but I would certainly also be concerned if my parent was in that situation. :/
 
That does sound extremely late? My dad, age 79, has just had his first shot yesterday - this is in Germany, obviously way behind the UK in that respect, like 6 or 8 weeks later.
So no matter how much Canada is lagging behind on vaccinations, surely age 87 with Parkinsons he should be getting a date at least?

Eta: Yikes, just had a google and found this Toronto responds to criticism that it is falling behind other regions in vaccinating people over the age of 80.

Am I reading the article right in that from the 15th of this month general booking for the over 80s is opening? Apols if I am stating the obvious or misunderstanding something, but I would certainly also be concerned if my parent was in that situation. :/

Nope, you seem to have the correct about your assumptions.

Actually, Toronto is much further ahead with their vaccinations. They get the lions share, then Ottawa, then slow trickles into the rural areas. Dad lives in Brockville, so he will get before us.

But, on the other hand, Toronto and area make up the bulk of cases.

Where I am, we have very little of the virus. case.jpg

This is the cases for my area. I'm in North Glengarry.
 
Portugal
Today 22 deaths 642 new cases
Overall vaccine roll out slow, mainly due to production targets not being met in the EU procurement scheme. We still haven't completed the most vulnerable group. However, as the decline in cases, death, and hospitalisations continues, the President has just gone through the fortnightly short consultation meetings with all the parties represented in Parliament to hear their views and proposals before the State of Emergency is reviewed and renewed.

You can get a flavour of what the parties say by their short press releases and the mood is generally one of a cautious approach to de-escalating the present confinement regulations. Some debate about the R number ie is it .7 or.9, if it's the latter then it's rising with no confirmation at this stage by DSG (Health) and thank heavens we don't have the press and media pushing the boundaries about opening up etc. Looks likely that consideration will be given to schools opening, possibly child care and hairdressers in the first stage. Then non essential shops, bars and cafes etc. Some parties are arguing for a de-escalation by tiers (see map below where red = extreme high risk above 760m cases per 1000, orange= very high risk 480-960, yellow =high risk=240-480m, and white =moderate below 240 per 1000 )

The long term hope is that tourism in some form based on either proof of negative test or vaccine proof will begin May however at the moment there are no direct flights to the UK and the land borders are closed with Spain with the exception of those with work permits.

The UK variant is 65% of cases, there have been 3 reported cases of the Brazil one.

View attachment 258197

You mention the slow vaccine roll out due to the EU supply problems what's your feel for take-up and has the Portuguese government made the same stupid mistake and pointlessly undermined confidence in the AZ jab as other EU governments have?
 
You mention the slow vaccine roll out due to the EU supply problems what's your feel for take-up and has the Portuguese government stupidly and pointlessly undermined confidence in the AZ jab as other EU governments have?
There's no significant anti vax movement in Portugal and unlike France no history of anti vax. The government hasn't undermined confidence in the AZ vaccine and has now extended approval of the AZ vaccines for over 65s. In fact, if anything there has been a lot of lobbying around who, in addition to the elderly and health workers, is in the priority groups ( teachers and teaching assistants have just been included) and a couple of cases of public service officials being jumping the queue. Originally the military, firefighters, security services, and a handful of key political figures including cabinet ministers, public prosecutors and some lawmakers. were in the priority groups along with the over 80s and over-50s with pre-existing health conditions. . However, only 2.4m doses have arrived instead of 4.5m so 90% will go to the elderly and pre-existing cohorts. As production increases no doubt more vaccines will arrive but it means that unlike the UK the deconfinement process is not underpinned by mass vaccination.

The Portuguese Government which is the Socialist Party ( similar to Labour in the UK) is very much uncritical of the EU procurement issue mainly because its Portugals turn to chair the EU Council and there are no national elections on the horizon. The parties to the left , the PCP (Communist) and Left Block which do have seats in Parliament have however been extremely critical both in the Portuguese Parliament and the EU.
 
There's no significant anti vax movement in Portugal and unlike France no history of anti vax. The government hasn't undermined confidence in the AZ vaccine and has now extended approval of the AZ vaccines for over 65s. In fact, if anything there has been a lot of lobbying around who, in addition to the elderly and health workers, is in the priority groups ( teachers and teaching assistants have just been included) and a couple of cases of public service officials being jumping the queue. Originally the military, firefighters, security services, and a handful of key political figures including cabinet ministers, public prosecutors and some lawmakers. were in the priority groups along with the over 80s and over-50s with pre-existing health conditions. . However, only 2.4m doses have arrived instead of 4.5m so 90% will go to the elderly and pre-existing cohorts. As production increases no doubt more vaccines will arrive but it means that unlike the UK the deconfinement process is not underpinned by mass vaccination.

The Portuguese Government which is the Socialist Party ( similar to Labour in the UK) is very much uncritical of the EU procurement issue mainly because its Portugals turn to chair the EU Council and there are no national elections on the horizon. The parties to the left , the PCP (Communist) and Left Block which do have seats in Parliament have however been extremely critical both in the Portuguese Parliament and the EU.

Thanks for that. All very interesting.
 
No actual link found - purely precautionary but

Denmark’s national health agency has said it is temporarily suspending inoculations with the AstraZeneca vaccine after blood clots formed in several people who had the jab, one of whom has reportedly died.

The agency said on Thursday it had not conclusively established a link between the clots and the vaccine, but said it had asked the regional authorities in charge of the vaccination programme to stop using the AstraZeneca shot for the time being.

The agency said it would reassess the situation in consultation with the Danish medicines agency in two weeks’ time, but stressed there was “good evidence that the vaccine is both safe and effective”.
 
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Bloodclots from a simple immune response ?
What would the mechanism be ?
Especially after how many million doses ?

If you jabb millions of old people you find some of them drop dead for a variety of reasons. None related to the jab. It's right to err on the side of caution so the batch is being investigated but this is normal practice for all medicines. Pharmacovigilence is a well established area of study for vaccines. Nothing to be worried about at this point.
 
The hysteria is apparently spreading



Translation results
The AstraZeneca vaccine and batches withdrawn, in Italy and in several European countries In Italy, the Medicines Agency has banned the use of a batch of AstraZeneca vaccine as a precaution after "adverse events" were recorded, but the link with the vaccine has not yet been ascertained. In other European countries the suspension was decided, for a different batch The AstraZeneca vaccine and batches withdrawn, in Italy and in various European countries shadow Aifa, the Italian drug agency, has blocked the use of a batch of AstraZeneca's Covid vaccine. The decision, relating to a single lot - from code ABV2856 - came following the reporting of some «serious adverse events», in «temporal concomitance with the administration of doses of the vaccine». Aifa claims that this decision was taken as a precautionary measure: in other words, there is no evidence that the vaccine caused the "adverse events" - circulatory problems attributable to thrombosis - while, at the moment, these are reports related to " temporal concomitance ". In its statement, Aifa writes that "at the moment no causal link has been established between the administration of the vaccine and these events", and explains that it is "carrying out all the necessary veracities, acquiring clinical documentation in close collaboration with the NAS and the competent authorities". The samples of the withdrawn batch "will be analyzed by the Istituto Superiore di Sanità". According to the Ansa agency, doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine belonging to batch ABV2856 were also administered in the Aosta Valley between 10 and 19 February. The health director of the Calle d’Aostra Local Health Authority Maurizio Castelli explained that no particular side effects were found. The Ema - the European Medicines Agency - has clarified that, while the investigations continue, the administration of the vaccine produced by the Anglo-Swedish pharmaceutical company is to be considered safe and can continue, and that the benefits of the anti Covid vaccine developed by AstraZeneca outweigh the risks. The Italian Prime Minister, Mario Draghi, had a telephone conversation with the President of the European Commission, Ursula Von der Leyen. From the conversation it emerged that there is no evidence of a link between the cases of thrombosis recorded in Europe and the administration of the AstraZeneca vaccine. What are the "adverse events" in Italy Aifa did not specify the "adverse events" that led to the precautionary suspension. The Reuters agency, which cites sources familiar with the matter, explains that these are two deaths recorded in Sicily. One of these cases concerns a soldier serving in Augusta, Stefano Paternò, 43, originally from Corleone, but residing in Misterbianco (Catania). For his death there are about ten suspects, accused of manslaughter. Another case is that of Davide Villa, 50, a police officer. Villa and Paternò had received the AstraZeneca vaccine: the first a few days before, the second the day before death. The doses belonged to the batch withdrawn from AIFA. There is no confirmation - it must be repeated - that these deaths are attributable to the vaccine. Denmark's decision on the AstraZeneca vaccine On the same day today, Denmark and 6 other European countries decided to suspend the use of the AstraZeneca vaccine. This decision - the Danish authorities explained - is linked to reports of "serious adverse events" recorded in Denmark, also in this case thrombosis, for which at the moment the causal link with the administration of the vaccine is not certain. In particular, in Denmark one of these adverse events is related to a death. Denmark has decided to suspend the use of the AstraZeneca vaccine for 14 days, and specified that this choice does not at all imply that the AstraZeneca vaccine will no longer be used in the country at all. The lot we are talking about in this case is different from the one distributed in Italy, and was instead distributed in 17 European countries. Seven of these countries - Estonia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Latvia, Norway, Iceland and Denmark - have decided to suspend the use of the AstraZeneca vaccine. Spain claimed that it has not registered any cases of thrombosis, and that it will continue to use the vaccine produced by the Anglo-Swedish company on a regular basis. The EMA's response on thrombosis cases EMA, the European Medicines Agency, reported that the risk of blood clots is no greater in vaccinated people. "The information available so far," said Ema, "indicates that the number of thromboembolic events in vaccinated people is no higher than that observed in the rest of the population.







 
The hysteria is apparently spreading

Whereas Spain reports no incidents.
 
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