But sadly not extending to Palestine and Gaza. Might bite them in the bum considering the amount of workers that travel from the occupied territories to work in Israel.
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- Thread starter weltweit
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elbows
Well-Known Member
I know I already replied to this a number of times already, but I was looking at some detail for another reason today and more signs that there is something very wrong with this explanation you've been given came up.
The following is from the results tab of the spreadsheet on this site:
So something is arse-backwards in the explanation you've been given. Tests where only the S bit comes out positive are not treated as positive cases.
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Well, i'm at home isolating now so will pick it up with the virology consultant when back. Perhaps something didn't come across properly or I misunderstood.
Anyway, the chap in question had a confirmatory positive from my test, so it really was just an incidental positive in the context of another illness- but not thankfully a 'false' positive due to the vaccine.
Anyway, the chap in question had a confirmatory positive from my test, so it really was just an incidental positive in the context of another illness- but not thankfully a 'false' positive due to the vaccine.
Aladdin
Well-Known Member
Tony Holohan says Level 5 restrictions could last until March | BreakingNews.ie
Updated at 10:35Dr Tony Holohan has told Newstalk’s Late Breakfast with Mark Cagney that suggestions that the restrictions could last into March were a possibility.“I can't rule that out, I couldn't rule that out - but at the moment, we have a four week opportunity. I know th
www.google.com
Ireland could be in full lockdown til March
elbows
Well-Known Member
Cool, no hurry. I have found your experiences and anecdotal evidence during this pandemic to be extremely valuable, and I always like to blend that stuff with the theoretical, research & data side of things to see if everything matches up, highlight potential clues, and seek out possible assumption errors that may exist in the rapidly developed conventional wisdom about this virus.
So I only latched onto this S stuff and kept going on about it because something seems to have got inverted somewhere and I'd like to understand more, and test the possibility that its me who has gotten things the wrong way round.
elbows
Well-Known Member
I suppose when it comes to false positives in general, the explanations I would first reach for would be stuff like a contaminated sample, a bad batch of sequencing reagent chemicals, some other error made during the lab analysis, or a test that isnt specific enough and might also pick up other types of coronavirus infection.
Anyway its gone past the point where I should shutup about this detail, especially as your case wasnt a false positive.
By the way, have you seen any confirmed influenza cases this season?
Anyway its gone past the point where I should shutup about this detail, especially as your case wasnt a false positive.
By the way, have you seen any confirmed influenza cases this season?
Literally none, nor have I heard of any! No parainfluenza or human metapneumovirus either, both of which along with flu I'd have seen by this point in other years.
Which isn't a surprise, as the covid control measures will drop all respiratory viral incidence.
Thanks for the link above- that was an interesting document from the Oxford researcher, and good to read about the gene targets the swabs use. Looks as you say that the information I got was dud- a research microbiologist found and spoke to the virologist for me as I couldn't get through, so probably Chinese whispers at play.
Which isn't a surprise, as the covid control measures will drop all respiratory viral incidence.
Thanks for the link above- that was an interesting document from the Oxford researcher, and good to read about the gene targets the swabs use. Looks as you say that the information I got was dud- a research microbiologist found and spoke to the virologist for me as I couldn't get through, so probably Chinese whispers at play.
SpineyNorman
Inappropriate content removed
With the longer delay between doses is there a chance we could end up with a similar result to not finishing a course of antibiotics? In that we end up applying evolutionary pressures that select for strains the vaccine doesn't work as well on?
I don't know what I'm talking about so I'm probably talking bollocks but it's been worrying me since it first occurred to me.
I don't know what I'm talking about so I'm probably talking bollocks but it's been worrying me since it first occurred to me.
teqniq
DisMembered
This is pretty nuts:
www.latimes.com
Some healthcare workers refuse to take COVID-19 vaccine, even with priority access
Doubts about the vaccine among healthcare workers could have serious implications for public health, say experts.
www.latimes.com
elbows
Well-Known Member
Cheers for the info. That document was one of the first bits of analysis published. Theres a whole bunch of official UK stuff relating to the new strain on the following website if you are interested: New SARS-CoV-2 variant
elbows
Well-Known Member
Quite a lot of our responses to the virus come with the risk of creating selection pressure that leads to strains of the virus that override our progress. I dont think its an avoidable risk, although obviously where mitigating actions can be taken to reduce that risk they should be.
Its a risk with vaccinations in general for sure, part of a broader subject relating to immune escape and the need for continual surveillance in this area. I dont currently have a view on whether the change to the dose timing regime will affect this picture, I've only thought about the broader subject as it relates to vaccines in this pandemic in general, and there is a risk of selection-pressure related mutations taking off for sure. Its one of the reasons they expect to play cat & mouse with the virus on this front on an ongoing basis, eg are expecting to have to tweak the vaccines over time.
Cloo
Approved by toads
Yup, sadly of course they're not... and stupid because as you say, they are very reliant on Palestinian labour.
LDC
On est tous des pangolins
This is the most 2020 story ever....
www.theguardian.com
Dozens of residents die at Belgian care home after Santa visit
Twenty-six residents have died and 85 more have tested positive for coronavirus since visit in Mol
BigMoaner
We will all go together
edited, did't read it properly!
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Supine
Newt Member
Human error is far more common
BigMoaner
We will all go together
yes, you're right - didn't read it properly!
BigMoaner
We will all go together
what do they mean by that? are they basically saying it's out of control and they've given up?Just announced here
View attachment 246338
"We are no longer in a containment phase"....
Batten down the hatches and stay indoors is the message.
frogwoman
No amount of cajolery...
Mexico’s Excess Deaths Pass 250,000 Amid Covid Outbreak
Mexico has recorded 40% more deaths than expected this year, according to a report on excess mortality in the country.
www.bloomberg.com
That's just until the end of November, they recorded another 1052 yesterday.
It already has one of the highest death rates in the world.
Aladdin
Well-Known Member
I dont know.
I think it means that its getting out of control in some way? Hospitals filling up. And numbers of people with the virus multiplying by the day.
We are in a level 5 lockdown now til at least end of January and NPHET want the level 5 to go right to end of March. To allow as many get the vaccine etc and reduce the incidence of covid i the community.
But with only 40000 vaccines a week it will take ages to get people vaccinated.
I hope it does not mean it is out of control but....it's written in such a way as to make one think that is the case.
BigMoaner
We will all go together
yeh, strange choice of wording.I dont know.
I think it means that its getting out of control in some way? Hospitals filling up. And numbers of people with the virus multiplying by the day.
We are in a level 5 lockdown now til at least end of January and NPHET want the level 5 to go right to end of March. To allow as many get the vaccine etc and reduce the incidence of covid i the community.
But with only 40000 vaccines a week it will take ages to get people vaccinated.
I hope it does not mean it is out of control but....it's written in such a way as to make one think that is the case.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Its the sort of language that was part of many countries traditional pandemic phase planning that existed long before this particular pandemic. I dont want to go into all the tedious detail about what a poor match for nasty pandemic reality such plans often were, but they tended to lead to awkward moments early on, especially in the UK, and especially when it comes to issues of testing capacity. In brief:
In the traditional plans the containment phase happens early on, when levels of infection in the community are thought to be fairly low. Often there is no genuine expectation that this phase will actually contain the virus, so the expectation in traditional plans is that at some point things get worse and the containment phase gives way to a mitigation phase.
Some of the practical response differences between these two phases tend to involve testing. eg in containment phase the low numbers involved mean that in a country with modest testing & contact tracing systems can still aim to formally test and trace a good chunk of community cases. In a mitigation phase the levels are too high for the system to cope, and even if it could cope the contact tracing side would seem like a drop in the ocean that wont be making a worthwhile difference. So that side of things is given up on, in order to direct efforts elsewhere.
The UKs failure on the first wave timing predictions and testing front meant they abandoned both the language and the original limited testing ambitions of the traditional pandemic planning, and tried to get away from some of the ingredients that had brought their initial response into such disrepute. So we ended up with a testing system that could scale up much higher, and lots of different language reflecting the desire to do local tier stuff or different sorts of alert levels to describe pandemic phases, no more establishment talk of containment and mitigation here these days.
It sounds like Ireland on the other hand has kept some of these traditional phase labels, and their limited testing capacity has required them to make a formal change for the criteria of who gets tested in order to cope with the extra demand on the system that this wave is bringing. It doesnt mean they are giving up, and whether they acknowledge it much or not, countries in general know that contact tracing cannot carry the weight of a large wave past a certain point, so I wouldnt call it gross negligence to abandon such efforts at the times of maximum infection in the community. Especially because such steps are not usually taken in isolation, they happen along with other changes that are designed to compensate. I have put an example of this in bold in the following quote about the situation:
From Ireland ‘no longer in containment phase’ | Westmeath Independent
elbows
Well-Known Member
Oh I forgot to say that an additional reason for the UK moving on to different language and phase descriptions is that one of our original plans phases was unfortunately titled the delay phase. And it was rather embarrassingly announced that we were 'moving into the delay phase' during the very critical weeks of late February and early March when delays in data, delays in understanding, and delays in tough decision making lead to a disaster that few in the country failed to notice. So that sort of language ended up being a gift to script and joke writers and a curse to everyone else.
weltweit
Well-Known Member
Humankind has made remarkable progress against this coronavirus pandemic including producing approved vaccines in record time and discovering various treatments and better ways of dealing with hospitalisations.
I forget exactly where I saw this but I saw a debate that basically went along the lines of we were so lucky that this virus has such a low mortality rate, hopefully what we have learnt from this one (and will continue to learn) we won't forget for when a proper deadly pandemic comes along.
I forget exactly where I saw this but I saw a debate that basically went along the lines of we were so lucky that this virus has such a low mortality rate, hopefully what we have learnt from this one (and will continue to learn) we won't forget for when a proper deadly pandemic comes along.
Aladdin
Well-Known Member
Coronavirus: 1,754 new cases and 11 more deaths reported as hospital numbers pass 500
Nphet warns 9,000 additional new cases will be reported in coming days
Out of control now here.
Everyone is being advised to consider themselves as close contacts and operate that way.
Shit.
Mation
real life adventure worth more than pieces of gold
I was hearing yesterday from a friend that in France you have to jump through loads of hoops to get the vaccine. You have to see a GP first - I think at a separate appointment - and sign lots of paperwork, including a waiver that says fuck off if you get any side effects cos you knew the risks in advance.
I can't understand the reasoning behind the waiver. Either the vaccines have been deemed safe and tolerable enough to roll out nationally/globally, or they haven't (and they have). You'd expect some tiny proportion of people to experience adverse effects, but surely not enough to warrant a waiver?
It just seems like shooting the whole country in the foot and making the whole process and uptake extra difficult.
And indeed a grand total of 138 people have had the vaccine in the whole country, as of 30 December
What am I missing?
I can't understand the reasoning behind the waiver. Either the vaccines have been deemed safe and tolerable enough to roll out nationally/globally, or they haven't (and they have). You'd expect some tiny proportion of people to experience adverse effects, but surely not enough to warrant a waiver?
It just seems like shooting the whole country in the foot and making the whole process and uptake extra difficult.
And indeed a grand total of 138 people have had the vaccine in the whole country, as of 30 December
What am I missing?
farmerbarleymow
I'm Petee's spirit animal
Yeah, I was reading about this this morning - it looks pretty bad.Coronavirus: 1,754 new cases and 11 more deaths reported as hospital numbers pass 500
Nphet warns 9,000 additional new cases will be reported in coming dayswww.irishtimes.com
Out of control now here.
Everyone is being advised to consider themselves as close contacts and operate that way.
Shit.
Ireland Covid cases surge as health official warns virus is 'absolutely rampant'
Some 9,000 cases yet to be formally reported as chief medical officer says biggest worry is rise in hospitalisations
Hope you're doing OK.
platinumsage
HaveMyPassword123
I think their civil defence infrastructure is helping, coupled with managing to procure sufficient amounts vaccine and actually have them delivered already.
