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[elbows]

JPMorgan have a take on the European situation. Worth a read, if you're interested in these things. I'll break it over two posts.

Interesting stuff, cheers. I wish they had used some better data in places though, eg their figure for how many days from lockdown to the peak in daily UK deaths seems to rely on the daily reported number rather than deaths by date of death, leading to quite a large difference. So they have 26 days but with the data I use its more like 16-17 days. Plus we know from previous mobility data that really huge changes in the UK began a week before actual lockdown.

 

[bellaozzydog]

2808 deaths in 7 days in the U.K.

UKHSA data dashboard

Overall summary of the respiratory viruses in circulation within the UK

coronavirus.data.gov.uk

This is insanity

 

[Johnny Doe]

So, considering whether to take the family to Tenerife for Xmas, if the 'non-essential travel' advice is lifted and normal travel insurance is therefore available. Can anyone who has spent more time looking at this comment on their much lower cases per million people? Less testing, more testing? Is the relevant metric actually active cases as a % of the population?
View attachment 235474


View attachment 235475

Thanks in advance for any help!

Updated figures, active cases down in Tenerife.....yay or nay?

 

[kabbes]

How sure are you that you won’t have it and thus be banned from travel?

 

[Supine]

Updated figures, active cases down in Tenerife.....yay or nay?

You'd better hope flying isn't still banned when you want to go

 

[Johnny Doe]

How sure are you that you won’t have it and thus be banned from travel?

Not at all as yet, to be considered nearer the time

You'd better hope flying isn't still banned when you want to go

Well, quite. If it's legal and possible to get insurance in a month's time, to leave on or around 18th Dec, it's a maybe....

 

[kabbes]

Not at all as yet, to be considered nearer the time

Then you’d need to be willing to lose any money you’d paid for the holiday. I doubt insurance will cover it.

 

[Teaboy]

Honestly I think Internal travel at the moment is a bit daft. I was banging on about this at the start of summer and sure as night follows day our numbers went through the roof after the holiday season. It also seems like this particularly virulent strain of Covid we have causing chaos at the moment came from Spain and brought back by tourists. The summer holiday season certainly seems to have killed a lot.

I love travel. Its my favourite thing but I've just written this period off. It makes me very sad but we are where we are. I've not been in the UK for NYE since 2002 and it really upsets me that I can't go on my favourite holiday of the year but we are where we are.

Its not about risk to me. I know I'm very low risk.

 

[Johnny Doe]

Honestly I think Internal travel at the moment is a bit daft. I was banging on about this at the start of summer and sure as night follows day our numbers went through the roof after the holiday season. It also seems like this particularly virulent strain of Covid we have causing chaos at the moment came from Spain and brought back by tourists. The summer holiday season certainly seems to have killed a lot.

I love travel. Its my favourite thing but I've just written this period off. It makes me very sad but we are where we are. I've not been in the UK for NYE since 2002 and it really upsets me that I can't go on my favourite holiday of the year but we are where we are.

Its not about risk to me. I know I'm very low risk.

Yeah, I see that. For me, if I can spend 2 weeks outdoors by a pool with my kids, I hope I can avoid a repeat of lockdown my autistic boy smashing TVs (last one was his neurotypical brother to be fair), pulling doors off hinges and putting holes in plasterboard walls.

'Just staying home' doesn't look the same for everyone.

 

[Johnny Doe]

Then you’d need to be willing to lose any money you’d paid for the holiday. I doubt insurance will cover it.

Again, to be factored in. Cheers for the reminder to look around at insurance policies - it's a very good point

 

[kabbes]

Again, to be factored in. Cheers for the reminder to look around at insurance policies - it's a very good point

The cover exists but expect to pay for it. The insurer has to assume that you will have a good chance of needing to cancel, and will charge accordingly.

 

[Teaboy]

Yeah, I see that. For me, if I can spend 2 weeks outdoors by a pool with my kids, I hope I can avoid a repeat of lockdown my autistic boy smashing TVs (last one was his neurotypical brother to be fair), pulling doors off hinges and putting holes in plasterboard walls.

'Just staying home' doesn't look the same for everyone.

Yeah I get that. Its not going on holiday that concerns me, its the international travel bit. You gotta do what's right for your family though. There are no easy answers in all this.

 

[frogwoman]

Ironically going on a plane is probably safer than some pubs at the moment. Wouldn't do it at the moment though but you've got to do what's right for your family I think.

 

[Johnny Doe]

Yeah, I see that. For me, if I can spend 2 weeks outdoors by a pool with my kids, I hope I can avoid a repeat of lockdown my autistic boy smashing TVs (last one was his neurotypical brother to be fair), pulling doors off hinges and putting holes in plasterboard walls.

'Just staying home' doesn't look the same for everyone.

No need for the sadface frogwoman , though appreciate it. These were incidents that occurred over a long summer, with summer holiday preceded by school closures. and generally our lives are good and my kids are happy. 2 weeks with nothing open and likely weather which means outside isn't a daily, all-day long proposition though, needs some planning.

 

[Teaboy]

Ironically going on a plane is probably safer than some pubs at the moment. Wouldn't do it at the moment though but you've got to do what's right for your family I think.

Well, the pubs are pretty safe in England at the moment.

When me and my g/f almost certainly got Covid (no tests available etc) it was on a plane. Guy in row behind choking over us for an hour. I'd sooner take my chances in a pub, not that I have mind. Inside anyway.

If you're in a pub or wherever on the ground you can always get up and leave. In a plane you just have to sit there and get coughed on unless its a very empty plane.

Anyway, we digress.

 

[Teaboy]

dp

 

[Johnny Doe]

The cover exists but expect to pay for it. The insurer has to assume that you will have a good chance of needing to cancel, and will charge accordingly.

Haven't seen the costs yet, or checked the smallprint but Jet2's insurance claims to cover much of the areas of concern:

 

[Hyperdark]

Are you sure that as someone residing in a country with such awfull numbers of cases and deaths that the Canary Islanders want you around?, or dont you care as long as its legal?

 

[The39thStep]

My flight back to Portugal

 

[Johnny Doe]

Are you sure that as someone residing in a country with such awfull numbers of cases and deaths that the Canary Islanders want you around?, or dont you care as long as its legal?

I do , but isn't the testing meant to mitigate that and allow an area that needs tourism revenue to attract it?

 

[Badgers]

My flight back to PortugalView attachment 238892View attachment 238893

Why sit so close to that other passenger?

Got the whole plane to the two of you

 

[The39thStep]

Why sit so close to that other passenger?

Got the whole plane to the two of you

Crazy isnt it? There were about ten people on the flight . I booked extra legroom in a rush both ways as I only had 45 mins to conform with the hospital that I could make the covid test on Monday and then the operation. he asked the steward if he could move to extra legroom after the flight took off. What I did notice was he had a mask that velcro'd at the base of the neck which i really could have done with as the elastic on mine caused the stitches behind my ear to start bleeding, in the end I ask the steward for a plaster and used that to stick the mask on my cheekbone like they did in the operation.

 

[2hats]

Why sit so close to that other passenger?

You can always rely on the Ryanair passenger seating algorithm to provide the most perverse solution in any situation.

 

[The39thStep]

Just catching up on news here in Portugal . There have been some small demos and protests in Lisbon and Porto over restaurant closures at the weekend by owners and staff .Mainly masked and socially distanced and not infiltrated by the loony conspiracists thank heavens . The constitution, agreed following the revolution, allows demonstrations and parliament would have to agree to a state of emergency to suspend protests which would be opposed by the Left Bloc , Communist Party and possibly sections of the Socialist Party . The issue here is sufficient compensation for wage loss .

 

[frogwoman]

8 Kenyan doctors lost to COVID-19 in 7 days

 

[Supine]

Interesting mobility chart comparing a few countries.

 

[HAL9000]

Why sit so close to that other passenger?

Got the whole plane to the two of you

it could be random or might be weight and balance. In 2009, Ryanair rules were..

In order to maintain a 25 minutes turn around Ryanair uses a simplified loadsheet stating:

Rule 1: Mandatory: With 177 pax or less fwd rows 3 and 4 must be blocked
Rule 2: Optional: Both aft and fwd balance limits may be extended by 0,4 units for ZFW and TOW, provided:
a) No pax seated in the fwd 6 and aft 4 seat rows; maximum of 132 pax, or
b) 178 or more pax carried, or
c) Ferry flight (No pax)

Those rules makes it easy and very quick to board the aircraft, hope that gives you an explanation.

Ryanair Weight and Balance Issues? - PPRuNe Forums

Passengers & SLF (Self Loading Freight) - Ryanair Weight and Balance Issues? - I had the misfortune tonight to fly Ryanair from EGSS to LEMG. I see they have reduced their baggage allowance from the normal 20kg to 15kg per passenger and this does not seem simply to be a way of squeezing out a...

www.pprune.org

So maybe Ryanair have got a COVID19 weight and balance rule?

 

[HAL9000]

In the USA, some covid patients insist covid is fake

Spoiler: its a bit depressing, so I put it behind a spoiler

South Dakota Nurse: Dying COVID Patients Think It’s Fake

Doering says some of her patients are also in denial, willing to believe almost anything else has made them so sick. “People want it to be influenza, they want it to be pneumonia, we’ve even had people say, ‘I think it could be lung cancer,’” she said. The nurse said that when she offers to hook some patients up with family by FaceTime for a last conversation, they say, ‘No, because I’m doing fine.’” She said the attitude is taking a toll on health-care workers. ‘It’s like a movie where the credits never roll,” she said.

 

[Cloo]

Ironically going on a plane is probably safer than some pubs at the moment. Wouldn't do it at the moment though but you've got to do what's right for your family I think.

My parents will be flying back from Slovakia in about a month - hopefully will be pretty empty, but it does sound like flights are fairly safe, especially if everyone wears masks, which Slovaks are likely to do because they actually have consideration for other people.

 

[elbows]

This is the latest I have in regards large European countries number of covid-19 patients in hospital.