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Well I think whatever the rules they are likely to be tested, I can't imaging with our recent record we are going to escape any localised runs of infections.

The reality of a globalised world is that nowhere will escape outbreaks. The amount that occur will depend on travel and societies cautiousness etc.

I saw an article about the recent outbreak in Leicester where the council were complaining that they were promised postcode data from the government but it was not sent. That stuff needs to be improved because without the info outbreaks can’t be dealt with.
 
The article below provides a clear and detailed summary of how the Beijing outbreak is being handled, in case anyone is wondering how that's working out for us.


Only 33 neighbourhoods completely sealed off, but:

A looser form of “closed management” has been adopted in the other 7,000 or so neighbourhoods in Beijing. These lower-risk areas must set up entry checkpoints, staffed 24 hours a day. Passes are needed to enter, and face or code verification is used to record who enters or exits. Temperature checks are also being conducted. Delivery drivers, housekeepers and other service industry personnel can only enter after registering and showing that their current status is green on the Beijing Health app.

Must make it very difficult to move around the city, or are the "neighbourhooods" more like blocks of flats and residential compounds?
 
How useful are the temperature checks? They'll catch people with a fever but surely not people who have the virus and are contagious but not with a fever yet.
 
How useful are the temperature checks? They'll catch people with a fever but surely not people who have the virus and are contagious but not with a fever yet.

Yeah, in the scale of measures we have, they're probably the least critical. They do successfully cause me to stand outside Walmart while I stop sweating after I walk there too enthusiastically. :oops:
 
On the Guardian’s rolling news page so c’p’d here, very interesting figures:

Coronavirus live news: soldiers sent to southern Italian town amid tension over new outbreak

Austria: 40% of residents in coronavirus 'ground zero' ski resort have antibodies
Philip Oltermann
Some 40% of residents in the Tyrolean skiing resort that has been described as a possible “ground zero” for the pandemic in Europe have developed Covid-19 antibodies, scientists have found.
Scientists from the university of Innsbruck tested 80% of the population of Ischgl, a popular Austrian skiing destination from which tourists have been confirmed to have carried the virus to Germany, Britain, Denmark, Iceland, Belgium, the Netherlands, and even Brazil and Israel.
Of 1,259 adults and 214 children tested, 42.5% had developed antibodies for the virus. The director of the university’s Institute for Virology, Dorothee von Laer, on Thursday described the result as the higher level of infection confirmed across the globe so far.
Of those infected, only 15% had experienced any sort of symptoms, the study found. This means as many as 85% experienced the infection without noticing.
 
On the Guardian’s rolling news page so c’p’d here, very interesting figures:

Coronavirus live news: soldiers sent to southern Italian town amid tension over new outbreak

Austria: 40% of residents in coronavirus 'ground zero' ski resort have antibodies
Philip Oltermann
Some 40% of residents in the Tyrolean skiing resort that has been described as a possible “ground zero” for the pandemic in Europe have developed Covid-19 antibodies, scientists have found.
Scientists from the university of Innsbruck tested 80% of the population of Ischgl, a popular Austrian skiing destination from which tourists have been confirmed to have carried the virus to Germany, Britain, Denmark, Iceland, Belgium, the Netherlands, and even Brazil and Israel.
Of 1,259 adults and 214 children tested, 42.5% had developed antibodies for the virus. The director of the university’s Institute for Virology, Dorothee von Laer, on Thursday described the result as the higher level of infection confirmed across the globe so far.
Of those infected, only 15% had experienced any sort of symptoms, the study found. This means as many as 85% experienced the infection without noticing.

I'm actually not sure what this tells us? Yes 40% of those tested had developed antibodies but without knowing how many were infected initially I'm not sure what we conclude from this apart from there being a reasonably significant number of people who develop antibodies.
 
Would any of those still be infectious? Presumably some who have only had the virus, but those who have had it and recovered a while ago?
 
On the Guardian’s rolling news page so c’p’d here, very interesting figures:

Coronavirus live news: soldiers sent to southern Italian town amid tension over new outbreak

Austria: 40% of residents in coronavirus 'ground zero' ski resort have antibodies
Philip Oltermann
Some 40% of residents in the Tyrolean skiing resort that has been described as a possible “ground zero” for the pandemic in Europe have developed Covid-19 antibodies, scientists have found.
Scientists from the university of Innsbruck tested 80% of the population of Ischgl, a popular Austrian skiing destination from which tourists have been confirmed to have carried the virus to Germany, Britain, Denmark, Iceland, Belgium, the Netherlands, and even Brazil and Israel.
Of 1,259 adults and 214 children tested, 42.5% had developed antibodies for the virus. The director of the university’s Institute for Virology, Dorothee von Laer, on Thursday described the result as the higher level of infection confirmed across the globe so far.
Of those infected, only 15% had experienced any sort of symptoms, the study found. This means as many as 85% experienced the infection without noticing.
My wife, who works in the ski holiday biz, said there was a report out of France that one of the resorts tested well over 60% for the locals. Can't remember if it was Val D'Isere or Alpe d'Huez or whatnot, but one of the more popular ones.
 
I'm actually not sure what this tells us? Yes 40% of those tested had developed antibodies but without knowing how many were infected initially I'm not sure what we conclude from this apart from there being a reasonably significant number of people who develop antibodies.

It’s this bit that I found interesting “Of those infected, only 15% had experienced any sort of symptoms, the study found. This means as many as 85% experienced the infection without noticing.”

That’s a) a pretty high level of asymptomatic cases, which is interesting in itself for lots of reasons [NB one would need the demographics of the sample to do proper interesting analyses, but it’s still an interesting headline] and b) indicates that in something like at least 35% of asymptomatic cases an antibody response is generated - this is not something I at least had seen before.

Combined with the admittedly very small scale study suggesting significant proportions (75%?) of cases don’t develop antibody responses (they deal with it via T cells instead) the story starts to become very interesting indeed.

I wonder if the Austrian researchers could use their samples to test for parallel or otherwise T cell activation too? That would be a great data set.

T cell senescence is a well-known phenomenon in older people (65+ progressively), being a more severe decline than antibody capacity, which of course fits the observed steep age-dependent mortality curve.

Speculation at this stage, but to me suggestive speculation, that there’s more to this than we are generally considering at the moment.
 
Would any of those still be infectious? Presumably some who have only had the virus, but those who have had it and recovered a while ago?
Short answer to that would be no. Antibody tests are only reliable a couple of weeks after you start getting ill, while new cases in Austria have been tiny for ages. Vast majority of these will be people who had it months ago.
 
So those people would be a useful pool of people who could go out and about, delivering stuff to people (for example) without themselves getting infected or infecting others.
 
It’s this bit that I found interesting “Of those infected, only 15% had experienced any sort of symptoms, the study found. This means as many as 85% experienced the infection without noticing.”

That’s a) a pretty high level of asymptomatic cases, which is interesting in itself for lots of reasons [NB one would need the demographics of the sample to do proper interesting analyses, but it’s still an interesting headline] and b) indicates that in something like at least 35% of asymptomatic cases an antibody response is generated - this is not something I at least had seen before.

Combined with the admittedly very small scale study suggesting significant proportions (75%?) of cases don’t develop antibody responses (they deal with it via T cells instead) the story starts to become very interesting indeed.

I wonder if the Austrian researchers could use their samples to test for parallel or otherwise T cell activation too? That would be a great data set.

T cell senescence is a well-known phenomenon in older people (65+ progressively), being a more severe decline than antibody capacity, which of course fits the observed steep age-dependent mortality curve.

Speculation at this stage, but to me suggestive speculation, that there’s more to this than we are generally considering at the moment.
I'd like to see more T cell analyses too. There was a study in the US that found around 50% of its never-infected participants had T cells capable of attacking covid. You're right that there are a number of tantalising suggestions that this may have spread a lot wider than initial antibody tests indicate.
 
So those people would be a useful pool of people who could go out and about, delivering stuff to people (for example) without themselves getting infected or infecting others.
Potentially, yes, although in the case of this particular village, people are probably already pretty much safe. Infection levels in Austria have been low for a while now. It is interesting how it avoided mass death despite being one of the initial epicentres.
 
Oh god, that's all we need. It already looks like it causes lung scarring (though there are a lot of shouty people on the internet saying this is due to the ventilators), perhaps even in asymptomatic people and now this.

As its Friday I think I'm not going to think too much about these things.
 
Its likely true and the big question is to the scale of the phenomenon. Its also another subject that is compatible with conventional wisdom - viral infection triggering the onset of type 1 diabetes is a known concept, and indeed I believe my brothers type 1 diabetes, which had its onset when he was about 12, coincided with the period following a notable influenza epidemic.
 
Just a bit more on the cases in Lisbon . The Left Block , who have cllr, there report that the 250 or so daily cases ( which is about 80%) of the national cases is heavily influenced by the high rate of testing in that area, many cases showing no symptoms at all and a particular issue with workers in construction and distribution. These two areas have mainly worked during the whole Covid 19 period , Low age , precarious type work with very little unionisation. Rents are high in that area and it’s either work or debt. Lots of travelling on public transport which Left Block have asked for tighter controls on standards of health and safety. Add that to poor and crowded housing and the fact that many are immigrants not just from Brazil and Africa but Eastern Europe often with language difficulties and questionable status . Big drive in these communities for them to get residencias and to sign up for health services .
Portugal are carrying out just short of 100k tests per week despite this ie the more you test the more you find, the rate of infection per 1000 of the pop is a lot lower than the UKs .
 
In Australia we have 104 deaths nationally. There have been some recent outbreaks in NSW and Victoria but the authorities are all over that.


I live in Qld and our labour premier has been staunch in fighting to keep our boarders closed. People who were opposing her have now gone quiet after the Victoria outbreaks.

Usually at this time of year my town would be overflowing with grey nomads coming up from the south (Victoria) to live in their caravans by the beach. I can't say I miss them.

Qld has been promoting holidaying in Qld for Queenslanders. Next week are the school holidays so I expect town will be busy but only with Queenslanders.
 
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