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Regarding the Spain data discussed a little earlier in this thread. Its still shit. Here is the latest explanation which I machine translated from recent official reports:

A validation of the deceased cases is being carried out to correct the historical series, which will be updated weekly. Only the cases in which the date of death is the day before the time of writing this report are added to the total on a daily basis.
Click to expand...
 
Another strange and interesting angle:

Our epidemiological analysis of the Covid-19 pandemic clearly indicates a decrease of prevalence and impact of SARS-CoV-2 infection in populations living at altitude of above 3,000 masl. The reason for decreased severity of the global COVID-19 outbreak at high altitude could relate to both environmental and physiological factors.
Click to expand...

www.sciencedirect.com

Does the pathogenesis of SARS-CoV-2 virus decrease at high-altitude?

In the present study we analyze the epidemiological data of COVID-19 of Tibet and high-altitude regions of Bolivia and Ecuador, and compare to lowland…
www.sciencedirect.com www.sciencedirect.com
 
frogwoman said:
New coronavirus losing potency, top Italian doctor says is there any truth to this?
Click to expand...

More on this shit.

3h ago 17:32

Other experts countered that Zangrillo may have mistaken a higher detection rate of asymptomatic cases for diminished potency of the virus.

“In a situation where the numbers of severe cases are falling, there may be time to start observing people with less severe symptoms – giving the impression that the virus is changing,” said Martin Hibberd, a professor at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.
Click to expand...

Dr Oscar MacLean, of the MRC-University of Glasgow centre for virus research, said Zangrillo’s claims were “not supported by anything in the scientific literature, and also seem fairly implausible on genetic grounds”.
Click to expand...

The dispute came as Italy prepares its next big step in easing its three-month-old national lockdown with the readmittance of foreign tourists from Wednesday and an end to the ban on travel between regions. The government has insisted that this is one of the most dangerous phases of the pandemic and has urged people to abide by social distancing rules and wear masks to prevent the virus from spreading once again.
Click to expand...
 
2hats said:
Some doubts about the effectiveness of the ChAdOx1 vaccine candidate (the Oxford vaccine) arising from response in animal models (all subjects shed viral RNA after SARS-CoV-2 exposure and produced a low titre of neutralising antibody).
www.forbes.com

Did The Oxford Covid Vaccine Work In Monkeys? Not Really

The latest data on the vaccine being developed out of Oxford shows limited success.
www.forbes.com www.forbes.com
Paper DOI: 10.1101/2020.05.13.093195
Click to expand...
well, I'm off for my face to face screener tomorrow, first chimpanzee injection on Monday if they don't think I'm too mental/heavy a smoker.
 
weltweit said:
Mongolia - gives a lesson for the rest of us!
Click to expand...
Seems there is something wrong with my Mongolia link I can't see it myself.

The jist was that despite Uulan Bataar being home to 1.5 million souls Mongolia has managed to avoid any Covid-19 deaths by taking action early
Mongolia has had the best COVID-19 response in the world. Not only do they have zero deaths, they have zero local transmissions. Mongolia didn’t flatten the curve or crush the curve — they were just like ‘fuck curves’. In Mongolia, there simply wasn't an epidemic at all.

And no, they didn’t just get lucky.

Starting in January, Mongolia executed a perfect public health response, and they have never let up the pressure since. COVID-19 did not just leave Mongolia alone. Mongolia kicked its ass.

For this all this hard work, however, they get little credit. Nobody’s talking about the ‘Mongolian example’. Instead, we talk about total failures like Germany or Sweden. Like I’ve said, success is ZERO, and Mongolia is as zero as you can get.
etc ..
Click to expand...

More info here: COVID-19 pandemic in Mongolia - Wikipedia and more here: Coronavirus Mongolia, Daily update of COVID 19 in Mongolia

Basically Mongolia is an example of proximity to Wuhan China but of successful defeat of the virus. We should be looking at Mongolia as much as we do New Zealand or South Korea, or Germany.
 
Bored so I just did a Google to compare flight numbers in/out of UK Vs Mongolia.

Looks like we have 220k flights a month in/out of 60 airports and Mongolia has <1k flights a month from one airport.

Probably much easier to socially isolate if you are nomadic tribes people too.
 
Supine said:
Bored so I just did a Google to compare flight numbers in/out of UK Vs Mongolia.

Looks like we have 220k flights a month in/out of 60 airports and Mongolia has <1k flights a month from one airport.

Probably much easier to socially isolate if you are nomadic tribes people too.
Click to expand...
1.5 million people in the capital. No community spread at all.
 
Last edited:
Supine said:
Bored so I just did a Google to compare flight numbers in/out of UK Vs Mongolia.

Looks like we have 220k flights a month in/out of 60 airports and Mongolia has <1k flights a month from one airport.

Probably much easier to socially isolate if you are nomadic tribes people too.
Click to expand...

Why do people keep talking about how many flights we have like it's some force of nature we can't control, or that it's a reason to not bother doing anything? We know we have a huge amount of international flights in and out. That's more reason to be proactive, not less.
 
Supine said:
A lot of data is suggesting asymptomatic cases are 40-45%. But worryingly asympomatic doesn't mean no damage...

Click to expand...


Good. Its greater recognition of this stuff that is one of the reasons I've been able to tale a holiday now. Albeit a holiday that still includes sporadic posts like this one ;)

There is still the usual caveat in that paper:

The difficulty of distinguishing asymptomatic persons from those who are merely presymptomatic is a stumbling block. To be clear, the asymptomatic individual is infected with SARS-CoV-2 but will never develop symptoms of COVID-19. In contrast, the presymptomatic individual is similarly infected but eventually will develop symptoms. The simple solution to this conundrum is longitudinal testing—that is, repeated observations of the individual over time. Unfortunately, only 5 of our cohorts include longitudinal data. We must therefore acknowledge the possibility that some of the proportions of asymptomatic persons are lower than reported.
Click to expand...

ACP Journals

www.acpjournals.org

But all the same, it is still clear that the picture involves plenty of people who will remain asymptomatic, in contrast to the 'only a few % asymptomatic' red herring from the WHO China team which I've questioned ever since.

It shouldnt have been so hard for humanity to accept this stuff from the start, after all when we actually bother to look at this side of other respiratory diseases like influenza, asymptomatic cases appear to be a very large part of the picture. eg:

NEJM Journal Watch: Summaries of and commentary on original medical and scientific articles from key medical journals

NEJM Journal Watch reviews over 250 scientific and medical journals to present important clinical research findings and insightful commentary
www.jwatch.org www.jwatch.org

On average, roughly 20% of the unvaccinated had serologic evidence of influenza infection, but up to three quarters of the infected were asymptomatic. The proportions did not vary significantly between seasonal and pandemic influenzas.
Click to expand...

And thats precisely why I was skeptical of anything that downplayed the extent and role of asymptomatic cases in this pandemic in the first place.

Even when this stuff is properly acknowledged and explored, the human response can still be very frustrating, because its still an aspect which is deliberately overlooked when inconvenient. eg in the UK various aspects of the response are to deal with the asymptomatic side of things (eg whole household isolation), but when they wanted to change how parliament was being run, the likes of Hancock were still talking as though a good degree of safety could be enforced via protocols that only really work for obviously symptomatic cases.
 
Shocking that it takes a newspaper investigation to get a medical paper retracted

The Lancet paper that halted global trials of hydroxychloroquine for Covid-19 because of fears of increased deaths has been retracted after a Guardian investigation found inconsistencies in the data.

The lead author, Prof Mandeep Mehra, from the Brigham and Women’s hospital in Boston, Massachusetts decided to ask the Lancet for the retraction because he could no longer vouch for the data’s accuracy.

The journal’s editor, Richard Horton, said he was appalled by developments. “This is a shocking example of research misconduct in the middle of a global health emergency,” he told the Guardian.

A Guardian investigation had revealed errors in the data that was provided for the research by US company Surgisphere. These were later explained by the company as some patients being wrongly allocated to Australia instead of Asia. But more anomalies were then picked up. A further Guardian investigation found that there were serious questions to be asked about the company itself.
Click to expand...
www.theguardian.com

Covid-19: Lancet retracts paper that halted hydroxychloroquine trials

Retraction made after Guardian investigation found inconsistencies in data
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
 
Iteland all set to open up again. Finally some light at the end of the tunnel and bringing forward some aspects of phase 3 into phase 2.. will make great difference to daily life.. and news on pubs and restaurants at end of June too..

From the article;
Everything outlined in Phase 2 has been given the green light while some of Phase 3 has been brought forward.
Stay Local: You may travel within your own county, and up to 20 kilometres from your home if crossing county boundaries.
Meeting other people: You may meet up to six people from outside your household both indoors and outdoors for social gatherings.
Sports: Organised outdoor exercise, sporting, cultural or social activities of up to 15 people may take place.

www.rte.ie

At a glance - what's new from 8 June and beyond

The Taoiseach has announced an acceleration of the roadmap into easing the restrictions brought in to contain the spread of Covid-19.
www.rte.ie www.rte.ie
 
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