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[quimcunx]

It's certainly impressive what Kerala has managed but you can't ignore various significant differences between Kerala and the UK.

The population is about 35 million (about half the UK population).
It looks like they receive about 1 million international arrivals a year.

Compare that with just Heathrow airport, which sees about 75 million international arrivals a year.

If the UK had stopped international arrivals at around the same point as Kerala had done, who knows how many cases would already have been here - might have been 100x the number that Kerala then managed to get on top of.

cities/states/countries are all different with different challenges. If the figures had been reversed what reasons would people posit for that? If we demanded to know why Kerala did so badly compared to the UK? What significant differences couldn't we ignore then? Well the UK is very very rich, Kerala is many many times poorer. Kerala is far more densely populated than the UK. Imagine if they'd had to isolate in overcrowded unsanitary houses for weeks and months instead of palatial houses and flats like they did in the UK? Kerala doesn't have a natural border it can defend like the UK did. etc. etc.

 

[Doodler]

Selection pressures don't operate in isolation, which is why it is impossible to predict how evolution will go

I bet you can make some predictions in the short term. If some virus has near 100% lethality, like myxomatosis did in rabbits, it's pretty safe to predict the next move won't be to get worse.

Coivd-19 might become more or less lethal, or more or less transmissible, or some combination of those factors. It's not been in humans long so stasis seems unlikely. There are pundits claiming that it's not going to mutate in any significant way or that it'll become less lethal because that's what happens with infectious diseases except when it doesn't, like with smallpox, yellow fever, malaria. I think they're motivated by the desire to spread some good news because that's what people want to hear.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

I bet you can make some predictions in the short term. If some virus has near 100% lethality, like myxomatosis did in rabbits, it's pretty safe to predict the next move is to become less lethal - it can't get worse.

Coivd-19 might become more or less lethal, or more or less transmissible, or some combination of those factors. It's not been in humans long so stasis seems unlikely. There are pundits claiming that it's not going to mutate in any significant way or that it'll become less lethal because that's what happens with infectious diseases except when it doesn't, like with smallpox, yellow fever, malaria. I think they're motivated by the desire to spread some good news because that's what people want to hear.

There is reason to be optimistic because other coronaviruses are thought to have evolved in the past to become less lethal over time - for instance, the one now believed to have been responsible for 'Russian flu' in 1880, which is still around and now part of the collection of bugs we lump together as 'colds'. But we don't know, you're right.

I'd have to dig out the reference, but biologists have quantified the extent to which a trait needs to be beneficial to be selected for. It's not much - just a slight edge over your contemporaries can be enough.

 

[teuchter]

cities/states/countries are all different with different challenges. If the figures had been reversed what reasons would people posit for that? If we demanded to know why Kerala did so badly compared to the UK? What significant differences couldn't we ignore then? Well the UK is very very rich, Kerala is many many times poorer. Kerala is far more densely populated than the UK. Imagine if they'd had to isolate in overcrowded unsanitary houses for weeks and months instead of palatial houses and flats like they did in the UK? Kerala doesn't have a natural border it can defend like the UK did. etc. etc.

Looks like Kerala did the right thing for Kerala. Like I said, it's impressive what they've achieved.

There are so many differences between all countries, and there's so much we still don't know, that I think it's too early to be saying look how X country managed vs Y country; this means that Y country obviously made massive mistakes that were totally foreseeable and had they pursued X country's strategy then everything obviously would have been loads better.

 

[quimcunx]

Looks like Kerala did the right thing for Kerala. Like I said, it's impressive what they've achieved.

There are so many differences between all countries, and there's so much we still don't know, that I think it's too early to be saying look how X country managed vs Y country; this means that Y country obviously made massive mistakes that were totally foreseeable and had they pursued X country's strategy then everything obviously would have been loads better.

Willingness to act quickly seems to be a theme.

I don't feel it's necessary to compare the UK to anyone else to be confident our govt have been doing very badly.

 

[Teaboy]

Russia has 196K active cases compared to Germany's 15k, so those stats could well level out.
Russia's low stats seem to correlate with other eastern european and batlic states, compared to the high numbers seen across westen european countries.
Germany (and Austria) appear to 'blend' the two clusters by averaging east and west out.

Maybe corona just doesn't get on very well with a pickled gurkin and vodka diet?

Yes. Russia, I believe also has a younger population or at least less old people than Western countries and it is the elderly who are most vulnerable. I should qualify that I'm not critical of Russian healthcare but I am suspicious of the death rate compared to confirmed cases.

 

[teuchter]

Willingness to act quickly seems to be a theme.

I don't feel it's necessary to compare the UK to anyone else to be confident our govt have been doing very badly.

I think it's too soon to be confident about anything.

 

[quimcunx]

I think it's too soon to be confident about anything.

Even if the results end up ok, there is a long list of ruthless incompetency.

 

[Saul Goodman]

I think it's too soon to be confident about anything.

I don't think it is. I think it's blatantly obvious how badly Boris has handled this, and it's not over yet.

 

[little_legs]

This is what travel without a vaccine is like, check out this long but interesting thread.

 

[extra dry]

don't veiw if you are effected by the sight of blood. Looking at 12 cases of people who died with the virus. Pictures of lungs and blood clots.

 

[frogwoman]

What is it? it's not an anti vaxxer video is it?

 

[nagapie]

Covid 19 and Africa

 

[LDC]

don't veiw if you are effected by the sight of blood.

FFS, give some idea of what that is please. Context, content, etc.

 

[Saul Goodman]

FFS, give some idea of what that is please. Context, content, etc.

Something about blood clots and a snake eating a giraffe, although I think the snake and giraffe part might have been me dreaming, when I fell asleep.

 

[editor]

don't veiw if you are effected by the sight of blood.

Come on - you know the rules here if you're posting in a thread like this. Please explain what this 13 min video is about and why people should watch it- and if it's gory, stick it behind spoiler tags with an explanation. Thanks.

 

[HAL9000]

Bleak article about trump (and long), I've not read all of it just skimmed it.


https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct...371e24b679ed&usg=AOvVaw1hmIPvYmQlCo7lmWsBxWCo

Fail to prepare incase it spook the market...

“Jared [Kushner] had been arguing that testing too many people, or ordering too many ventilators, would spook the markets and so we just shouldn’t do it,” says a Trump confidant who speaks to the president frequently. “That advice worked far more powerfully on him than what the scientists were saying. He thinks they always exaggerate.”

Things might get a lot worse...

“Trump is caught in a box which keeps getting smaller,” says George Conway, a Republican lawyer who is married to Kellyanne Conway, Trump’s senior counsellor. “In my view he is a sociopath and a malignant narcissist. When a person suffering from these disorders feels the world closing in on them, their tendencies get worse. They lash out and fantasise and lose any ability to think rationally.” Conway is known for taunting Trump on Twitter (to great effect, it should be added: Trump often retaliates). Yet without exception, everyone I interviewed, including the most ardent Trump loyalists, made a similar point to Conway. Trump is deaf to advice, said one. He is his own worst enemy, said another. He only listens to family, said a third. He is mentally imbalanced, said a fourth. America, in other words, should brace itself for a turbulent six months ahead – with no assurance of a safe landing.

Its hardly a surprise

 

[weltweit]

China Wuhan

It seems despite it being said that China would test the 11m population in 10 days this actually won't be possible, existing arrangements could test 100,000 a day. But they are going to do extensive testing.

14/05/2020 Can China test an entire city in just 10 days?

 

[Supine]

Imagine a virus that evolves to suppress the host's immune system. This is bad news for the host - it becomes vulnerable to all kinds of secondary infections. But so long as this made the virus more infectious, why wouldn't the trait of immunosuppression be selected for?

I think you just invented HiV

 

[weltweit]

Germany and apps

13/05/2020 German coronavirus app takes different path to NHS

Germany's forthcoming coronavirus contact-tracing app will trigger alerts only if users test positive for Covid-19.

That puts it at odds with the NHS app, which instead relies on users self-diagnosing via an on-screen questionnaire.

..
BBC News technology correspondent Rory Cellan-Jones said: "The NHS is taking a big gamble in choosing to alert app users when they have been in contact with someone who has merely reported symptoms.

"It could make the app fast and effective - or it could mean users become exasperated by a blizzard of false alarms."

..
Ms Merkel said SAP and Deutsche Telekom - which are co-developing Germany's app - were waiting for Google and Apple to release a software interface before they could complete their work.

And BBC News has learned the two US technology companies plan to release the finished version of their API (application programming interface) as soon as Thursday.

 

[Doodler]

I think you just invented HiV

Or measles.

 

[spring-peeper]

Iceland plans to reopen for tourists by June 15, with COVID-19 tests available for every arrival

Iceland, which has a population of about 364,000, has had just 1,803 confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus and 10 related deaths.

www.insider.com

Iceland's prime minister has announced plans to reopen the country's borders to tourists by June 15.

The country plans to allow travelers to avoid a 14-day quarantine by taking a free COVID-19 test upon arrival at the airport, according to Lonely Planet.

Those who test positive would have to self-isolate for 14 days.

The decision has been made in a bid to boost Iceland's tourism industry and the economy, Matador Network reports.

 

[weltweit]

Iceland plans to reopen for tourists by June 15, with COVID-19 tests available for every arrival

Iceland, which has a population of about 364,000, has had just 1,803 confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus and 10 related deaths.

www.insider.com

"Iceland's strategy of large-scale testing, tracing, and isolating have proven effective so far. We want to build on that experience of creating a safe place for those who want a change of scenery after what has been a tough spring for all of us."

I suppose it is things like this that could persuade some people to fly again sooner rather than later.

 

[weltweit]

I'm going to achieve immortality if it kills me.

Or as Woody Allen said:

I don't want to achieve immortality through my work, I want to achieve it through not dying!

 

[Saul Goodman]

I'm going to achieve immortality if it kills me.

I plan on living forever. So far so good.

 

[weltweit]

South Korea

13/05/2020 Cheating couples caught by coronavirus tracking app in South Korea

A coronavirus tracking app in South Korea accidentally exposed couples who were cheating on their partners, a Channel 4 documentary has revealed.
..
A tracking app, developed by a 19-year-old IT whizz, was able to start tracing where people had been so that the government could alert those they may have had contact with.

..
The app went as far as checking the GPS on people’s phones to see where they’d been, their credit cards to check where they ate and used CCTV to monitor their movements too.

and

from 14/05/2020 South Korea to grant more privacy to coronavirus patients amid fears of LGBT+ discrimination

South Korean health authorities said on Thursday they would revise their practice of publicising the travel routes of coronavirus patients due to fears of a backlash against people who attended nightclubs at the centre of a new outbreak.

 

[extra dry]

Come on - you know the rules here if you're posting in a thread like this. Please explain what this 13 min video is about and why people should watch it- and if it's gory, stick it behind spoiler tags with an explanation. Thanks.

Sorry Editor, Frogwoman and other Urbs, its a bit late here and I wasn't thinking straight.

The video concerns the results of 12 Autopsies from German people who died with the virus, not all from the virus but resulting effects of having the virus.

I got from it that blood cloting is seen both in lungs and other areas of the body.

The main blood/unsettleing pictures are of the lungs and the blood cloting in viens. If you have seen 'a lung of a smoker' this virus effects them in a different way turning areas of lung blue/white.

Its quite indepth and serious, it has no anti-vaxer or snake oil BS.

 

[extra dry]

Something about blood clots and a snake eating a giraffe, although I think the snake and giraffe part might have been me dreaming, when I fell asleep.

Its not anything to do with snakes and giraffes.

I had a dream last night that I was eating the worlds largest marshmellow, when I woke up my pillow had disappered.

This is a joke by the way.

 

[William of Walworth]

Sorry Editor, Frogwoman and other Urbs, its a bit late here and I wasn't thinking straight.
The video concerns the results of 12 Autopsies from German people who died with the virus, not all from the virus but resulting effects of having the virus.
I got from it that blood cloting is seen both in lungs and other areas of the body.

The main blood/unsettleing pictures are of the lungs and the blood cloting in viens. If you have seen 'a lung of a smoker' this virus effects them in a different way turning areas of lung blue/white.

I think I might skip this 13 minute joy!

Its quite indepth and serious, it has no anti-vaxer or snake oil BS.

But it's a big relief to hear that this footage is free of nonsense, by the sound of it

 

[Yossarian]

Iceland plans to reopen for tourists by June 15, with COVID-19 tests available for every arrival

Iceland, which has a population of about 364,000, has had just 1,803 confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus and 10 related deaths.

www.insider.com

I'd be more tempted to go if they were testing people before departure, not on arrival - I wouldn't want to gamble on getting infected during the flight and having to spend 14 days cooped up in a hotel paying Icelandic room service prices.