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[teuchter]

Per FT, it looks like Russia and Brazil are rapidly overtaking the UK.

Russia a long way off UK numbers if you normalise for population

 

[little_legs]

Russia a long way off UK numbers if you normalise for population

View attachment 212138

I take your point, but Russia is not as densely populated, and when you know this because you are from there, the numbers are very scary.

 

[Doodler]

[From the post on Vincent Racaniello's Virology blog]

I would also caution that making claims that SARS-CoV-2 is becoming more transmissible ignores the fact that the virus is already exceedingly transmissible among humans. For an amino acid change such as D614S to be positively selected, as opposed to being maintained as a consequence of the founder effect, requires selective pressure. For such an already highly transmissible virus, the nature of such selection pressure is difficult to discern.

A ceiling effect? Covid-19 hasn't been in humans very long. The odds of it being optimised for human transmissibility while existing solely in bats or pangolins must surely be very low. A pre-lockdown R-value of 3 or 4 and a large majority of the human population still to infect must leave plenty of opportunity for improvement (from the virus's POV) I would have thought.

 

[teuchter]

I take your point, but Russia is not as densely populated, and when you know this because you are from there, the numbers are very scary.

Well, it's more densely populated than Canada but seems to be doing better than them so far.

Doesn't stop the situation being pretty bad in localised areas of course.

 

[little_legs]

Well, it's more densely populated than Canada but seems to be doing better than them so far.

Doesn't stop the situation being pretty bad in localised areas of course.

True. Doesn't help that healthcare in Russia is less than exemplary either.

 

[Shechemite]

I take your point, but Russia is not as densely populated, and when you know this because you are from there, the numbers are very scary.

Do we know the comparitive death rate in Russia (and internationally) in terms of deaths (covid and/or non-covid) in congregate institutions (prisons, hospitals, care homes etc) as compared to the general population?

 

[little_legs]

Do we know the comparitive death rate in Russia (and internationally) in terms of deaths (covid and/or non-covid) in congregate institutions (prisons, hospitals, care homes etc) as compared to the general population?

Good question. I don't know the answer, perhaps better informed people on here can point in the right direction.

 

[Shechemite]

off topic I know but I’m finding it really fucking hard think at the moment.

 

[Teaboy]

Russia a long way off UK numbers if you normalise for population

View attachment 212138

But the original comment was about number of people infected and your graph relates to covid deaths. Russia has a somewhat surprising (highly suspicious) death rate compared to infections.

Given how clumsy their doctors are when near windows and how antiquated and downright dangerous their ventilators are I'd be surprised if the Russian hospitals are doing that much of a better job of keeping people alive.

 

[teuchter]

But the original comment was about number of people infected and your graph relates to covid deaths. Russia has a somewhat surprising (highly suspicious) death rate compared to infections.

Given how clumsy their doctors are when near windows and how antiquated and downright dangerous their ventilators are I'd be surprised if the Russian hospitals are doing that much of a better job of keeping people alive.

On "confirmed cases" they've not overtaken the UK either.

But "confirmed cases" is fairly meaningless for comparing countries.

I'd agree that the death numbers seem suspiciously low, though.

 

[Cid]

Germany

from 11/05/2020 After weeks of relaxation, Germany sees some worrying COVID figures

I wish people wouldn’t say stuff like ‘scientists have deemed’ wrt to R0 etc. R>1 isn’t some arbitrary figure, it by definition means that infection rates are increasing.

 

[Cid]

On "confirmed cases" they've not overtaken the UK either.

But "confirmed cases" is fairly meaningless for comparing countries.

I'd agree that the death numbers seem suspiciously low, though.

View attachment 212164

It’s basically pointless making comparisons with Russia anyway. In the uk the government may piss about with figures to the best of its ability, but generally the underlying systems are robust enough that the figures are there if you need them, and can do the requisite digging. I suspect that is not quite the same in Russia.

 

[Teaboy]

On "confirmed cases" they've not overtaken the UK either.

But "confirmed cases" is fairly meaningless for comparing countries.

Of course, everyone knows this. Its been said thousands of times. I was just pointing out that you were using a graph about deaths to reply to a comment about infections.

 

[planetgeli]

I take your point, but Russia is not as densely populated,

I think a massive dose of skepticism has to be employed with figures all over the world. Due to an abysmal lack of testing, nearly all countries case figures do not reflect reality. And due to abysmal politics, some countries death figures also don't come close to reality.

Russia and Java interest me because their populations are near identical (144 million and 141 million). Their comparative population density figures are astonishing. 8.4 vs 940 people per sq. km.

I know it's generally accepted SE Asia is not as badly affected by Covid as much of the rest of the world but I can't believe the figures for Java anymore than I can accept those Russian figures. FWIW, Russia has some 230,000 cases and about 2,000 deaths. Java has about 10,000 identified cases and less than 1,000 deaths.

None of it particularly adds up does it?

 

[Sunray]

wrong thread

 

[weltweit]

It is tricky to compare countries, especially as the UK itself started with hospital deaths, now is showing all location deaths. However the ONS excess deaths figure is now 50,000 a figure which dwarfs both hospital and all location deaths. Which should we use to compare ourselves with other countries?

 

[weltweit]

China is to test the whole population of Wuhan after some new cases emerged. They are apparently to test the whole population of 11 million over a period of 10 days.

from 12/05/2020 Global report: Wuhan to test all as Germany pinpoints new Covid-19 outbreaks

the Chinese city of Wuhan, the original centre of the pandemic, saying it planned to test all 11 million residents.

 

[weltweit]

More on Wuhan

from 11/05/2020 Wuhan in first virus cluster since end of lockdown

Wuhan reported five new cases on Monday, after confirming its first case since 3 April on Sunday.

Authorities said the small cluster of cases were all from the same residential compound.

..
All of the latest cases were previously classified as asymptomatic - meaning they tested positive for the virus but were not exhibiting clinical signs such as a cough or fever.

Such people can spread the virus despite not being sick, but China does not count asymptomatic cases in its official tally of confirmed infections until they show symptoms.

 

[little_legs]

All Hong Kong residents can get a reusable mask courtesy HK government.

 

[frogwoman]

True. Doesn't help that healthcare in Russia is less than exemplary either.

Yeah, I lived in Russia and didn't need a doctor when I was there but from what I've heard about and their healthcare and saw of other government agencies it can be quite bureaucratic and difficult to get registered and seen etc

 

[frogwoman]

Where are you living now little_legs ?

 

[little_legs]

Where are you living now little_legs ?

London

 

[frogwoman]

London

I've sent you a PM

 

[gentlegreen]

Has anyone else encountered the Facebook ads ?
Do we know who's behind them ?
They have the vibe of those dodgy right wing accounts during the election...

 

[weltweit]

13/05/2020 How is lockdown being lifted across Europe?

 

[weltweit]

Brazil

from 13/05/2020 Brazil records highest daily rise in virus deaths

registered 881 new deaths on Tuesday, the health ministry said. The total death toll now stands at 12,400.
..
And experts say the real figure may be far higher due to a lack of testing in the country.

"Brazil is only testing people who end up in the hospital," Domingo Alves from the University of Säo Paulo Medical School told AFP news agency.

..
The number of confirmed cases in the country currently stands at 177,589, officials say. It rose by more than 9,000 on Tuesday and overtook Germany's tally of 170,000.
..
But far-right President Jair Bolsonaro has repeatedly downplayed the threat of the coronavirus and criticised governors and mayors for adopting strict restrictions to curb its spread.

Earlier this week, he issued a decree that classified businesses such as gyms and hairdressers as "essential" services that were exempt from lockdowns. But at least 10 governors said they would not comply with the order.

 

[Marty1]

Massive uptake of hydroxychloroquine in France.

Hydroxychloroquine–Number Of Prescriptions Explodes In France

Despite warnings around taking hydroxychloroquine to combat the symptoms of COVID-19, prescriptions in France have exploded as much as 7,000% in certain parts of the country.

www.forbes.com

 

[weltweit]

Germany

12/05/2020 Germany not alarmed by infection rate rise

Hundreds of workers in German slaughterhouses - many from Eastern Europe - have tested positive and now thousands more tests are being done in that sector. One slaughterhouse alone - in Coesfeld, North Rhine-Westphalia - has seen 260 cases.
..
So in Germany, while the R is now slightly above 1, and may go higher, the authorities are concerned but not panicking.

That's because it's estimated that fewer than 1,000 Germans are becoming infected every day.

So even if the rate of spread accelerates, the problem can be handled with careful surveillance and mass testing, because the numbers involved are manageable.

By contrast, it's thought that in the UK something like 20,000 people are becoming infected every day - far fewer than at the height of the outbreak, but still a serious number.

 

[zahir]

Not too promising for any thoughts of herd immunity developing.

Covid-19 spreads to every African country - as it happened

Disease now present in every African country as Spanish study reveals 5% of the population has antibodies

www.theguardian.com

A nationwide study of more than 60,000 people in Spain suggests about 5% of the population – approximately 2 million people – have had the virus. According to the provisional results of tests designed by the health ministry and the Carlos III public health institute, 5% of those tested had produced antibodies. While the prevalence of the antibodies was similar in men and women, it was lower in children and babies. There were also significant regional variations: while Murcia, Melilla, Asturias and the Canary islands showed an infection rate of less than 2%, the proportion rose to more than 10% in the regions of Madrid and Castilla-La Mancha. As the health minister Salvador Illa made plain on Wednesday evening, the study shows herd immunity has not been achieved.

 

[weltweit]

Yes zahir I was reading that WHO comment. I suppose though that without a vaccine we know it isn't going away, even those countries that have almost suppressed it - can't avoid reinfection from the outside. For us to be rid of it there has to be a vaccine.