Coronavirus - worldwide breaking news, discussion, stats, updates and more

[Anju]

Denmark has already seen the reproduction number climb in the last two weeks, which they attribute as largely down to schools re-opening. From 'Germany postpones decision on reopening schools - Merkel urges caution and Danish authorities note spike in virus reproduction rate since pupils returned to class' in the FT:

Wow,

This is how it's being spun in the guardian. Basically all good in Denmark and Czech Republic. No mention of the R number.

.“There are no signs at all that the partial reopening has caused a bigger spread of infection,” said Christian Wejse, a scientist at the department of infectious diseases at Aarhus University. “At least there is no indication that we are heading into another wave. That has been the concern, but I can’t see that at all.”

 

[littlebabyjesus]

I applaud Ireland for its reporting of the situation. A really well laid-out summary of a great many things you would want to know to get a good grip on what's happened there.

Gov.ie - Latest updates on COVID-19 (Coronavirus)

The stats on healthcare workers are interesting given the mortality rate reported - 0.1 %. It's a smallish sample of 5,000, but not a tiny one, and gives an indication of the mortality rate among a relatively healthy group of working-age people. Three quarters are women, though, which may help in terms of survival rates, and the sample is very small really.

More than half their deaths in care homes is a stat that stands out. But has to be stressed that this is in a context in which far fewer people have died in hospital than here.

It even includes the minutes from the national emergency committee set up to handle policy and expert advice - full minutes from all their meetings right back to January. At the equivalent here in the UK, we're not even allowed to know who was there, let alone what was said.

 

[weltweit]

According to the Spectator (in a story clearly heavily briefed by Downing St.) that's exactly what Whitehall's doing. Just confirms what I've assumed since Hancock made a big deal of his pet contact tracing app, an assumption I've grown more confident in as explicit suppression policies were released by Scotland and Wales without any serious opposition from London (indeed, Raab even praised Scotland's the other day).

I am not so sure about the Gov app, I think it is still a centralised one which I am slightly concerned about, also this business of keeping Bluetooth on, always has killed my battery life, I usually have BT off always.

I fully expect them to screw up along the way -- as this thorough investigation shows, S.K.'s multifaceted suppression system is a thing of wonder, that can't just be thrown together overnight -- but at least the intent's now there. Bute House has even done the full Ardern and committed to eliminating the virus.

Always better to set ambitious goals .. imo

 

[weltweit]

I fully expect them to screw up along the way -- as this thorough investigation shows, S.K.'s multifaceted suppression system is a thing of wonder, ..

That is probably the most detailed account of SK's system I have read. Very interesting, thanks for posting that link!

 

[Azrael]

I am not so sure about the Gov app, I think it is still a centralised one which I am slightly concerned about, also this business of keeping Bluetooth on, always has killed my battery life, I usually have BT off always.


Always better to set ambitious goals .. imo

Yes, I can't stand Whitehall's centralization obsession. They are talking about trialing their system in a few islands and remote regions, which is something, but this should be a local enterprise, led by local public health teams (of the kind we had before they were abolished).

 

[teuchter]

I applaud Ireland for its reporting of the situation. A really well laid-out summary of a great many things you would want to know to get a good grip on what's happened there.

Gov.ie - Latest updates on COVID-19 (Coronavirus)

The stats on healthcare workers are interesting given the mortality rate reported - 0.1 %. It's a smallish sample of 5,000, but not a tiny one, and gives an indication of the mortality rate among a relatively healthy group of working-age people. Three quarters are women, though, which may help in terms of survival rates, and the sample is very small really.

More than half their deaths in care homes is a stat that stands out. But has to be stressed that this is in a context in which far fewer people have died in hospital than here.

It even includes the minutes from the national emergency committee set up to handle policy and expert advice - full minutes from all their meetings right back to January. At the equivalent here in the UK, we're not even allowed to know who was there, let alone what was said.

Here is how the stats look to me. Take mid april (18th), which is when we seem to think we have reasonable care home figures up until, and also represents us at a similar point to which Ireland is at now, as they are about 12 days behind us, counting from first death.

UK: About 15,000 deaths, plus 3,700 care home deaths.
Ireland: about 1200 deaths, half of which in care homes, so about 600.

UK population 66M. Ireland population 5M.

UK: Overall, 283 deaths per M. (227 non-care home deaths per M, 56 care home deaths per M)
Ireland: Overall, 240 deaths per M. (120 non-care home deaths per M, 120 care home deaths per M.)

Like I said before it just doesn't appear that the picture is significantly better in Ireland. Overall death rate about the same. They appear to be doing loads worse than us in terms of care home deaths, and the reverse is true for non care home deaths.

Happy for my numbers to be corrected.

 

[Cid]

I applaud Ireland for its reporting of the situation. A really well laid-out summary of a great many things you would want to know to get a good grip on what's happened there.

Gov.ie - Latest updates on COVID-19 (Coronavirus)

The stats on healthcare workers are interesting given the mortality rate reported - 0.1 %. It's a smallish sample of 5,000, but not a tiny one, and gives an indication of the mortality rate among a relatively healthy group of working-age people. Three quarters are women, though, which may help in terms of survival rates, and the sample is very small really.

More than half their deaths in care homes is a stat that stands out. But has to be stressed that this is in a context in which far fewer people have died in hospital than here.

It even includes the minutes from the national emergency committee set up to handle policy and expert advice - full minutes from all their meetings right back to January. At the equivalent here in the UK, we're not even allowed to know who was there, let alone what was said.

That’s a percentage of diagnosed healthcare workers though. So doesn’t tell you much (unless the other ~95,000 all tested negative).

 

[teqniq]

Armed protestors storm Michigan Capitol as politicians wearing bulletproof vests vote on lifting lockdown

Senator Sylvia Santana, a Democrat, wore the protective gear to work on Thursday to protect herself

www.independent.co.uk

Michigan politicians have decided to don bulletproof vests when going to work as armed protesters defy lockdown orders.
State Senator Dayna Polehanki, a Democrat, revealed the protective decision some of her colleagues were making when sharing a picture of protesters on Twitter on Thursday.
In the picture, multiple men in the Michigan State Capitol building were armed with guns.
She wrote: "Directly above me, men with rifles yelling at us. Some of my colleagues who own bulletproof vests are wearing them. I have never appreciated our Sergeants-at-Arms more than today."
When contacted by The Independent, the senator shared a picture of her colleague Senator Sylvia Santana, a Democrat, wearing a bulletproof vest and face mask while working....

As someone said on twitter to paraphrase 'imagine if the protestorts had been brown and then imagine the police reaction' They largely seem to be Trump supporters, gun nuts, anti-vaxers/conspiracy types, and predominantly white

 

[zahir]

100,000 crew members stranded on cruise ships

‘No one comes': the cruise ship crews cast adrift by coronavirus

From the Galapagos to Dubai, over 100,000 crew have been left marooned amid squabbles over who is responsible for their welfare

www.theguardian.com

 

[weltweit]

Hopefully the US gun nuts will simply be charged and sent to prison.

I have no idea what they wanted to achieve.

 

[teqniq]

Hopefully the US gun nuts will simply be charged and sent to prison.

I have no idea what they wanted to achieve.

They are protesting lockdown and using intimidation as a tactic.

A spokesperson with the Michigan police told NBC News protesters are legally allowed to carry guns in Michigan as long as it's done with "lawful intent" and the weapon is visible.

Hundreds of protesters have gathered inside and outside of the Capitol on Thursday to protest stay-at-home measures Governor Gretchen Whitmer, a Democrat, put in place in March. The governor faced backlash after she extended the stay-at-home order until 15 May.

the fucking state of this

 

[weltweit]

teqniq legally allowed and lawful intent - they really are on a different planet? Why would they need to be carrying guns to make a protest? unless they intended to use the guns somehow .. I refer the gent to my earlier answer, they are loonies!

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Here is how the stats look to me. Take mid april (18th), which is when we seem to think we have reasonable care home figures up until, and also represents us at a similar point to which Ireland is at now, as they are about 12 days behind us, counting from first death.

UK: About 15,000 deaths, plus 3,700 care home deaths.
Ireland: about 1200 deaths, half of which in care homes, so about 600.

UK population 66M. Ireland population 5M.

UK: Overall, 283 deaths per M. (227 non-care home deaths per M, 56 care home deaths per M)
Ireland: Overall, 240 deaths per M. (120 non-care home deaths per M, 120 care home deaths per M.)

Like I said before it just doesn't appear that the picture is significantly better in Ireland. Overall death rate about the same. They appear to be doing loads worse than us in terms of care home deaths, and the reverse is true for non care home deaths.

Happy for my numbers to be corrected.

Going to set aside the care home issue - I don't know why Ireland has such a high %age, may be a transfer of the virus from hospitals due to system failure like here, or perhaps due to a different policy wrt taking care home residents to hospital, dunno.

But I think we now have to be careful about comparing from 'time since first death', especially where the two places you're comparing are very different sizes - a smaller place will, on average, detect its first death later than a larger place. But anyway, it's becoming less and less relevant. Time since lockdown is more relevant, and even that's being superseded now by measures of infection rates post-lockdown, reflecting things like proper ppe provision/use and proper infection control protocols within the care system.

There isn't compelling evidence that Ireland is behind the UK on its curve. Ireland's been testing much more than the UK (surprise, surprise) and it's been finding fewer new cases for a while now. Its peak death week was perhaps a week later than the UK's peak death week, and like the UK, it has remained on an uneasily high plateau since then, but it appears to have its infection rate under some kind of control.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Going to set aside the care home issue - I don't know why Ireland has such a high %age, may be a transfer of the virus from hospitals due to system failure like here, or perhaps due to a different policy wrt taking care home residents to hospital, dunno.

Not sure Ireland has a high percentage of care home deaths, I've read reports of 50% for other European countries, and IIRC Scotland is reporting 35% so far, I expect we will end-up around the 50% mark too.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Not sure Ireland has a high percentage of care home deaths, I've read reports of 50% for other European countries, and IIRC Scotland is reporting 35% so far, I expect we will end-up around the 50% mark too.

Yes, that's also possible. Comparing stats is fraught, basically. It could just be that Ireland's stats are more reliable/honest than the UK's stats at the moment.

On the face of it, given Ireland has been way more transparent about its response than the UK, I'd trust Ireland's reporting more than the UK's reporting.

 

[Azrael]

Yes, that's also possible. Comparing stats is fraught, basically. It could just be that Ireland's stats are more reliable/honest than the UK's stats at the moment.

On the face of it, given Ireland has been way more transparent about its response than the UK, I'd trust Ireland's reporting more than the UK's reporting.

Same. I wouldn't sugar-coat Ireland's experience, they've had a scandal in their care home infections, but crucially, it's recognized as a scandal. Across the Irish Sea it's relentless gaslighting.

 

[Cid]

Ireland has significantly different demographics in any case; much higher percentage of people in rural areas (36.5% against 20.5%).

 

[weltweit]

France

from 30/04/2020 France offers subsidy to tempt lockdown cyclists

France is encouraging people to cycle to keep pollution levels low once lockdown restrictions end.

Under the €20 million (£17m; $21.7m) scheme, everyone will be eligible for bike repairs of up to €50 at registered mechanics.
..
Nations worldwide are grappling with ways to change urban transport in light of the coronavirus.

Emergency planners in London fear the Tube will not be able to cope once lockdown is lifted. A report seen by the BBC says that social distancing rules would reduce capacity to 15% of normal levels, and 12% on buses.

Moreover, pollution levels have dropped worldwide, and many are seeking to keep those levels low.

and

from 27/04/2020 French scientists to test theory nicotine helps body to combat coronavirus

French researchers are preparing to launch a human trial to test whether nicotine can help the body to combat coronavirus.
..
It follows a French study of public health data which appeared to show that smokers were 80 per cent less likely to catch the coronavirus than non-smokers of the same age and sex.

 

[weltweit]

more France

from 26/04/2020 From private testing for the rich to unrest in banlieues, coronavirus is highlighting France's stark divide

Paris (CNN)While billionaires isolate themselves at luxurious hideaways on the Mediterranean during the coronavirus outbreak, residents in deprived and crowded areas of France are now facing a surge in deaths, along with unrest on the streets.

Hostilities erupted this week in Paris' northern banlieues (or suburbs) following accusations of police brutality and racism during the coronavirus outbreak. Footage on social media appeared to show cars and trash cans set alight on roads, protesters hurling firecrackers and police racing to control the crowds.

 

[zahir]

Thread on transmission in a South Korean call centre.

 

[weltweit]

Thread on transmission in a South Korean call centre.

Looks pretty random to me the spread. I dare say a compressed call centre is an ideal spreading ground for the virus though, inevitable lots were going to get it.

Do they even know it was spread by one person or more than one?

 

[zahir]

This suggests that it was traced to one person but without finding where they had caught it.

We described the epidemiologic characteristics of a COVID-19 outbreak centered in a call center in South Korea. We identified 97 confirmed COVID-19 case-patients in building X, indicating an attack rate of 8.5%. However, if we restrict our results the 11th floor, the attack rate was as high as 43.5%. This outbreak shows alarmingly that severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) can be exceptionally contagious in crowded office settings such as a call center. The magnitude of the outbreak illustrates how a high-density work environment can become a high-risk site for the spread of COVID-19 and potentially a source of further transmission. Nearly all the case-patients were on one side of the building on 11th floor. Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus, the predecessor of SARS-CoV-2, exhibited multiple superspreading events in 2002 and 2003, in which a few persons infected others, resulting in many secondary cases. Despite considerable interaction between workers on different floors of building X in the elevators and lobby, spread of COVID-19 was limited almost exclusively to the 11th floor, which indicates that the duration of interaction (or contact) was likely the main facilitator for further spreading of SARS-CoV-2.

The first case-patient with symptom onset, who worked in an office on the 10th floor (and reportedly never went to 11th floor), had onset of symptoms on February 22. The second case-patient with symptom onset, who worked at the call center on the 11th floor, had onset of symptoms on February 25. Residents and employees in building X had frequent contact in the lobby or elevators. We were not able to trace back the index case-patient to another cluster or an imported case.

 

[Boru]

Irish government has released roadmap to ending restrictions.
Looks interesting and is on the understanding that the virus remains under control at each stage..
Seems to be good progression, timeline.. hope it can work..

At a glance: What restrictions are likely to be lifted?

The Government road map on easing the Covid-19 restrictions is due to start on Monday - the plan sets out five stages for unlocking restrictions, at three-week intervals.

www.rte.ie

 

[Indeliblelink]

How Long Will a Vaccine Really Take?

Opinion | How Long Will a Vaccine Really Take? (Published 2020)

Experts say at least 18 months. Here’s how to shorten the timeline.

www.nytimes.com

 

[William of Walworth]

How Long Will a Vaccine Really Take?

Opinion | How Long Will a Vaccine Really Take? (Published 2020)

Experts say at least 18 months. Here’s how to shorten the timeline.

www.nytimes.com

I've just read this -- it's informative and clear.
Despite the many very pessimistic aspects, it's an excellent article.

It ends on the therapeutic drugs element, which if this is correct, could offer some modest grounds for optimism -- even if (as likely) finding a reliable vaccine takes a huge amount of time.

Therapeutic drugs, rather than vaccines, might likewise change the fight against Covid-19. The World Health Organization began a global search for drugs to treat Covid-19 patients in March. If successful, those drugs could lower the number of hospital admissions and help people recover faster from home while narrowing the infection window so fewer people catch the virus.
Combine that with rigorous testing and contact tracing — where infected patients are identified and their recent contacts notified and quarantined — and the future starts looking a little brighter. So far, the United States is conducting fewer than half the number of tests required and we need to recruit more than 300,000 contact-tracers. But other countries have started reopening following exactly these steps.
If all those things come together, life might return to normal long before a vaccine is ready to shoot into your arm.

 

[weltweit]

Whitty was interesting on vaccines, he said we move forward in incremental steps rather than large leaps and the recent clinical trials into Remdesivir suggest that some progress in engaging with the virus which may be able to be built on by other treatments.

Well I thought it was interesting.

 

[Marty1]

Amazon sack coronavirus whistleblower then try to smear him.

Leaked Amazon Memo Details Plan to Smear Fired Warehouse Organizer: ‘He’s Not Smart or Articulate’

Written notes from the meeting, attended by CEO Jeff Bezos, detail Amazon's strategy to fight union organizing, as well as efforts to obtain COVID-19 tests and protective masks for workers.

www.vice.com

AOC weighs in also citing Amazon as being racist.

Leaked notes show Amazon execs' plans to smear fired warehouse worker

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez waded into the saga with Amazon Thursday night, saying its treatment of a fired warehouse employee is 'racist and classist'.

www.dailymail.co.uk

 

[yield]

Amazon sack coronavirus whistleblower then try to smear him.

Leaked Amazon Memo Details Plan to Smear Fired Warehouse Organizer: ‘He’s Not Smart or Articulate’

Written notes from the meeting, attended by CEO Jeff Bezos, detail Amazon's strategy to fight union organizing, as well as efforts to obtain COVID-19 tests and protective masks for workers.

www.vice.com

AOC weighs in also citing Amazon as being racist.

Leaked notes show Amazon execs' plans to smear fired warehouse worker

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez waded into the saga with Amazon Thursday night, saying its treatment of a fired warehouse employee is 'racist and classist'.

www.dailymail.co.uk

What a joke. I'd love to boycott Amazon but they're so cheap and often have what I need!

 

[editor]

This is something else

'Once upon a virus': Chinese video takes swipe at US response to COVID-19

A Chinese state media outlet releases an animated video using Lego pieces to mock the US response to the novel coronavirus.

www.abc.net.au

 

[Part-timah]

Irish government has released roadmap to ending restrictions.
Looks interesting and is on the understanding that the virus remains under control at each stage..
Seems to be good progression, timeline.. hope it can work..

At a glance: What restrictions are likely to be lifted?

The Government road map on easing the Covid-19 restrictions is due to start on Monday - the plan sets out five stages for unlocking restrictions, at three-week intervals.

www.rte.ie

Its fucking stupid to put dates on each stage. Its quite unlikely there will be a continual and steady improvement. Ffs.