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[William of Walworth]

weltweit 's posts above (previous page) about Remdesivir trials prompted me to remember to link to this piece by Hannah Devlin, the Guardian's science correspondent. It's from Saturday.

It's a general, accessible article surveying progress of and prospects for anti-Covid-19 vaccines and trials.
Well worth a read (IMO) for those not too up-to-speed at the moment about vaccines, and who'd like something not too technical!
(And who'd maybe like something friendly for non-scientists )

 

[Teaboy]

It looks like there may be a consensus that Remdesivir may offer some level of treatment:

from 29/04/2020 Drug has 'clear-cut' power to fight coronavirus


and

From Gilead, the manufacturer of Remdesivir:

from 29/04/2020 Gilead Announces Results From Phase 3 Trial of Investigational Antiviral Remdesivir in Patients With Severe COVID-19


more from 29/04/2020 Remdesivir: early findings on experimental coronavirus drug offer 'quite good news'

I'm not a scientist and clearly Faucci is but I'm more than a little surprised at his enthusiasm about this. Yes there are some optimistic signs but the results still look within a margin of error for a study of 1000 people. Also what does it actually mean? Does it means that some people who would very likely recover anyway will recover a bit quicker or does it mean it will save lives?

It seems all very hazy and if Trump had said it I wouldn't even bother to comment on it.

 

[weltweit]

The reports are confusing, the Chinese trial especially so and that WHO seem to have leaked and then removed a posting that said Remdesivir had no effect. I suppose I could wait and see what WHO says now? That might be a good plan.

 

[Teaboy]

The reports are confusing, the Chinese trial especially so and that WHO seem to have leaked and then removed a posting that said Remdesivir had no effect. I suppose I could wait and see what WHO says now? That might be a good plan.

Well Gilead appears to be an american company. Drug was apparently developed for Ebola so potentially still under patent? Might explain a little bit more about the differing attitudes towards it from both China and the US. As you say, probably best to wait for the WHO.

Pertaining to nothing in particular but one of my school friends is a scientist with GSK. I spoke with him after GSK announced they would team up with another company to help produce the vaccine. My mate just laughed and at pointed at the spike in their share price the next day. Make of that what you will.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

I'm not a scientist and clearly Faucci is but I'm more than a little surprised at his enthusiasm about this. Yes there are some optimistic signs but the results still look within a margin of error for a study of 1000 people. Also what does it actually mean? Does it means that some people who would very likely recover anyway will recover a bit quicker or does it mean it will save lives?

It seems all very hazy and if Trump had said it I wouldn't even bother to comment on it.

Smacks of a vested interest, tbh. The results are not exactly Wow and you can't discount the study that found no benefit here either - assuming they were both conducted fairly, you have to add the two studies together and look at that.

Do enough studies and you can get to cherry-pick one that gives you the result you want, as famously happened with two studies on smoking that found no link to lung cancer.

 

[David Clapson]

The virus has killed more Americans than the Vietnam war COVID-19 has now killed more Americans than the Vietnam War

 

[The39thStep]

Portugal next steps :

On May 4, shops of up to 200 square meters will open, the small street market that includes bookstores, ready-to-wear stores, hairdressers, barbers, shoe stores and car stands.
Public services are also reopened with the exception of citizen shops. Fifteen days later, on May 18, the Government plans to reopen stores up to 400 square meters. Cafes and restaurants are included in this phase.

 

[teuchter]

The virus has killed more Americans than the Vietnam war COVID-19 has now killed more Americans than the Vietnam War

I find these comparisons a bit silly.
So what? What does the comparison actually mean or tell us?

 

[teuchter]

Also... will I get into trouble for asking if there's any statistical analysis on death rates using a years-of-life-lost basis?

I know that as soon as you ask that, people will accuse you of saying that elderly people don't matter, or suchlike, but there's quite a difference between a large number of people dying, who would have been likely to die within the next year or so, and a large number of people dying who have most of their lives ahead of them.

This at least seems relevant if you are going to start comparing death rates between covid-19 and wars.

The comparisons made between the numbers killed by Spanish Flu and WW1 seem more meaningful to me, because of the age profile of each was similar to some extent.

 

[Teaboy]

Also... will I get into trouble for asking if there's any statistical analysis on death rates using a years-of-life-lost basis?

I know that as soon as you ask that, people will accuse you of saying that elderly people don't matter, or suchlike, but there's quite a difference between a large number of people dying, who would have been likely to die within the next year or so, and a large number of people dying who have most of their lives ahead of them.

This at least seems relevant if you are going to start comparing death rates between covid-19 and wars.

The comparisons made between the numbers killed by Spanish Flu and WW1 seem more meaningful to me, because of the age profile of each was similar to some extent.

I get you on your central point about comparisons. We had the one about more deaths in London than the blitz yesterday and that was equally odd. Thing is though I'm not sure how you would go about calculating how long someone would have lived for had it not been for the covid. Average life expectancy?

 

[frogwoman]

It's kind of pointless even attempting something like that because everyone is going to die tbh.

 

[LDC]

I find these comparisons a bit silly.
So what? What does the comparison actually mean or tell us?

It's just a comparison to give people some context and idea of the scale compared to historical events they know about. Maybe a bit of media worthy shock value. Nothing more than that. FWIW I find the comparisons interesting.

 

[teuchter]

I get you on your central point about comparisons. We had the one about more deaths in London than the blitz yesterday and that was equally odd. Thing is though I'm not sure how you would go about calculating how long someone would have lived for had it not been for the covid. Average life expectancy?

There was that analysis fairly early on, which may no longer stand, that reckoned the probability of anyone dying from Covid was matched pretty well with the probability of them dying within the next 12 months, or something like that.

 

[LDC]

I get you on your central point about comparisons. We had the one about more deaths in London than the blitz yesterday and that was equally odd. Thing is though I'm not sure how you would go about calculating how long someone would have lived for had it not been for the covid. Average life expectancy?

Early on I did read some article that tried to quantify that, I'll see if I can dig it out. Used some measurement of years of life and cost maths kind of thing.

 

[Combustible]

The reports are confusing, the Chinese trial especially so and that WHO seem to have leaked and then removed a posting that said Remdesivir had no effect. I suppose I could wait and see what WHO says now? That might be a good plan.

I don't think the Chinese trial said there is no effect, it said that no statistically significant benefits were seen. It can just mean that there were too few participants in the trial to judge whether there are benefits. The new trial has a larger number of participants than the Chinese trial (1000 vs 200), which from what I gather stopped recruiting new participants because of the massive drop of cases in Hubei.

 

[teuchter]

It's just a comparison to give people some context and idea of the scale compared to historical events they know about. Maybe a bit of media worthy shock value. Nothing more than that. FWIW I find the comparisons interesting.

50,000 Americans in Vietnam War over a period of 20 years.
2-4 million people killed in Vietnam War over a period of 20 years.
50,000 Americans killed by Covid in 2-3 months.
650,000 Americans die from heart disease every year.

These are more interesting to ponder than simply stating the two 50,000 numbers without context.

 

[weltweit]

I don't think the Chinese trial said there is no effect, it said that no statistically significant benefits were seen. It can just mean that there were too few participants in the trial to judge whether there are benefits. The new trial has a larger number of participants than the Chinese trial (1000 vs 200), which from what I gather stopped recruiting new participants because of the massive drop of cases in Hubei.

Hi Combustible, I meant the leaked paper by the WHO which seemed to say that the treatment had no effect, I don't know now why I even posted about it as it was a draft and removed shortly after being posted. The writeup of the Chinese trial I found a bit more tricky to understand though. The American trial writeup has much more easy to read summaries and conclusions etc so much more friendly for a non scientist to read.

I understand Remdesivir hasn't yet been approved for treatment of anything - so there may be some hurdles in front of it being used for covid-19 even given the two trials mentioned.

 

[Supine]

Remdesivir is undergoing lots of trials at the moment including in the U.K.

I believe the main problem with the first China trial was that it was stopped early so can possible be discounted. There is still a lot of hope it will be shown to significantly improve patient prospects in hospital. Lots more data should be available next month.

 

[Doodler]

I get you on your central point about comparisons. We had the one about more deaths in London than the blitz yesterday and that was equally odd. Thing is though I'm not sure how you would go about calculating how long someone would have lived for had it not been for the covid. Average life expectancy?

There are actuarial formulae for estimating the average life expectancy of someone of a given age, taking into account whether they're male or female, their lifestyle etc. Insurance companies put very simple versions of these online for people to cheer themselves up with.

It's not calculated by just subtracting someone's age from overall average life expectancy. If average life expectancy for men is 80 and you're 78, you're likely to live longer than another 2 years as you've already avoided the things that could have killed you earlier: childhood illness, playing on railway lines, drink driving, smoking and so on.

 

[Mation]

.

 

[Mation]

I salute you, Silvia Ontivero ❤❤

Coronavirus: My son's asthmatic killer doesn't deserve to die in jail

A mother in Argentina says she fears the asthmatic killer will not survive Covid-19 in jail.

www.bbc.co.uk

A woman in Argentina has written to authorities to support the release of her son's killer from prison during the coronavirus pandemic, recognising that his asthma puts him at risk

 

[weltweit]

I salute you, Silvia Ontivero ❤❤

Not sure I would have been so generous, fair play to her.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

There are actuarial formulae for estimating the average life expectancy of someone of a given age, taking into account whether they're male or female, their lifestyle etc. Insurance companies put very simple versions of these online for people to cheer themselves up with.

It's not calculated by just subtracting someone's age from overall average life expectancy. If average life expectancy for men is 80 and you're 78, you're likely to live longer than another 2 years as you've already avoided the things that could have killed you earlier: childhood illness, playing on railway lines, drink driving, smoking and so on.

Yeah you can google charts showing life expectancy from different ages as opposed to life expectancy from birth. ETA: There are also average 'good years' left charts, meaning years left with reasonable health.

Even that's not enough, though. You also have to take into account the fact that people with underlying conditions are more vulnerable.

However, with all those caveats, 70 per cent of UK c19 deaths are over 75s, as detailed here. The same proportion as in all deaths over the period, which actually could be a way in to estimating years lost a bit more accurately. But the overall point is clearly valid wrt comparisons with war.

 

[weltweit]

South Korea

from 30/04/2020 How South Korean life changed to contain the virus

South Korea has recorded its first day with no locally transmitted cases of Covid-19 since the middle of February.
..
It's a major milestone for a country that was once among the world's biggest virus hotspots, but it comes after significant efforts - and remarkably, without a total lockdown.

and

from 30/04/2020 South Korea says recovered coronavirus patients who tested positive again did not relapse: Tests picked up 'dead virus fragments'

South Korea says recovered coronavirus patients who tested positive again did not relapse: Tests picked up 'dead virus fragments'
..
South Korea announced in early April that some patients who had recovered from and tested negative for the virus later tested positive, suggesting that the virus could reactivate or that patients could be reinfected. The country has recorded this happening in 263 patients, The Korea Herald reported.

But the country's infectious-disease experts said on Thursday that the positive test results were likely caused by flaws in the testing process, where the tests picked up remnants of the virus without detecting whether the person was still infected, The Herald reported.

 

[Azrael]

I cannot praise South Korea's response enough. Not only did they act early like Taiwan and Singapore, but they detected, isolated and crushed a major outbreak. If they succeed in eliminating the virus from the general population, it can only add to the pressure for other countries to do likewise.

 

[weltweit]

I agree, SK have been really effective and I only wish we had been more similar to them rather than approaching covid-19 in the muddled way we did. We could still take up their methods on gradually emerging from the first phase and the announced hiring of contact tracers is a suggestion we may be taking things more seriously in that regard.

 

[Azrael]

I agree, SK have been really effective and I only wish we had been more similar to them rather than approaching covid-19 in the muddled way we did. We could still take up their methods on gradually emerging from the first phase and the announced hiring of contact tracers is a suggestion we may be taking things more seriously in that regard.

According to the Spectator (in a story clearly heavily briefed by Downing St.) that's exactly what Whitehall's doing. Just confirms what I've assumed since Hancock made a big deal of his pet contact tracing app, an assumption I've grown more confident in as explicit suppression policies were released by Scotland and Wales without any serious opposition from London (indeed, Raab even praised Scotland's the other day).

I fully expect them to screw up along the way -- as this thorough investigation shows, S.K.'s multifaceted suppression system is a thing of wonder, that can't just be thrown together overnight -- but at least the intent's now there. Bute House has even done the full Ardern and committed to eliminating the virus.

 

[teuchter]

Bute House

What's this "Bute House" thing? I've never heard anyone go on about "Bute House". I had to google it. Ok, it's something similar to Downing St in principle. But I have never heard anyone using it in this way, or even heard of it. And I'm Scottish. Is this a just a personal affectation or have I not been paying attention for the past 20 years?

 

[Anju]

Some interesting detail on Denmark' and China's approach to getting kids back to primary school.


Classes split into two groups, so around 10 per class based on their average class size. Staggered start times and breaks. Extra hand washing facilities installed and kids washing hands 8 times a day. Self marking as teachers can't take handle their exercise books. China checking staff and pupils temperatures on arrival.

Going to be difficult to replicate such measures in Britain with our class sizes, lack of extra space and half arsed leadership from Johnson and team.

Reopening schools: lessons from Denmark and China

 

[2hats]

Some interesting detail on Denmark' and China's approach to getting kids back to primary school.

Denmark has already seen the reproduction number climb in the last two weeks, which they attribute as largely down to schools re-opening. From 'Germany postpones decision on reopening schools - Merkel urges caution and Danish authorities note spike in virus reproduction rate since pupils returned to class' in the FT:

Danish authorities on Thursday said the reproduction rate for coronavirus had risen significantly since the Scandinavian country started reopening schools and kindergartens two weeks ago.

The reproduction rate — which signifies how many people on average are infected by somebody with the virus — rose from 0.6 on April 14 to 0.9 last week, Denmark's Serum Institute said. Anything below 1 means the spread of infection is decreasing but its increase potentially limits Denmark's room for manoeuvre.