Coronavirus - worldwide breaking news, discussion, stats, updates and more

[Chilli.s]

But it would be very depressing to see countries reinstating lockdown measures.

Do it once but do it properly. (And fingers crossed)

 

[Anju]

Its hard to be sure, hard to separate out different possible influences, and R0 will vary per setting, so I dont know if care home outbreaks are driving an increase in that number, for example. And its only an estimate. But it is a cause for concern and needs to be watched carefully.

https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Situationsberichte/2020-04-27-en.pdf?__blob=publicationFile

Good interview here where the guy pretty much quotes your post. Other interesting stuff in there. Doesn't feel like reading an interview with a government advisor.


"Q: If the lockdown were kept in place longer, could the disease be eradicated?
A: There is a group of modellers in Germany who suggest that by prolonging lockdown here for another few weeks, we could really suppress virus circulation to a considerable degree – bringing the reproduction number below 0.2. I tend to support them but I haven’t completely made up my mind. The reproduction number is just an average, an indication. It doesn’t tell you about pockets of high prevalence such as senior citizens’ homes, where it will take longer to eradicate the disease, and from where we could see a rapid resurgence even if lockdown were extended."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/26/virologist-christian-drosten-germany-coronavirus-expert-interview?

 

[planetgeli]

Brazil.

5,017 deaths.

A record 474 deaths yesterday.

Bolsonaro's response?

"So what? I'm sorry. What do you want me to do?"

'So what?': Bolsonaro shrugs off Brazil's rising coronavirus death toll

Outrage at president’s response to news that more than 5,000 people have lost their lives

www.theguardian.com

 

[weltweit]

It could get so much worse in Brazil than it is already and, Bolsonaro is being a dick.

 

[Teaboy]

Yeah you could probably already triple that number.

 

[gentlegreen]

Vadana Shiva is capitalising on this to spread her shite.

I have no intention of watching the video - the comments were quite sufficient.
These people live among us and are allowed to use pointy scissors.

Spoiler: Vadana Shiva

 

[teuchter]

Interestingly Ireland initially had the same basic phased plan, but were far more cautious about moving from one stage to the next, tried to prolong "contain" as long as they could, and crucially, never abandoned contact tracing, ensuring they never lost track of their outbreak. This made it far easier for them to rapidly change course to a suppression strategy as they learned more about the nature of the virus.

Is Ireland doing significantly better than the UK? Doesn't look like it to me.

An interactive visualization of COVID-19 | 91-DIVOC

An interactive, data-forward visualization of COVID-19 data by Prof. Wade at The University of Illinois. Updated daily.

91-divoc.com

 

[magneze]

The situation in Germany is without a doubt a bit of a worry. Coming out of lockdown was never going to be a smooth and linear process and as with everything with this pandemic results are going to vary country to country. But it would be very depressing to see countries reinstating lockdown measures.

I wouldn't be surprised if, as a result, the UK just stays in lockdown for a while until some country works out how to come out with success..

 

[magneze]

Brazil.

5,017 deaths.

A record 474 deaths yesterday.

Bolsonaro's response?

"So what? I'm sorry. What do you want me to do?"

'So what?': Bolsonaro shrugs off Brazil's rising coronavirus death toll

Outrage at president’s response to news that more than 5,000 people have lost their lives

www.theguardian.com

Die?

 

[Azrael]

Is Ireland doing significantly better than the UK? Doesn't look like it to me.
View attachment 209673

An interactive visualization of COVID-19 | 91-DIVOC

An interactive, data-forward visualization of COVID-19 data by Prof. Wade at The University of Illinois. Updated daily.

91-divoc.com

Comparisons to be made with care, as ever. Is that chart for hospital deaths in the UK?

I don't think anyone's holding Dublin's response up there with Taiwan's, South Korea's or New Zealand's. The entire West failed to treat Covid-19 with the seriousness due a SARS virus. It does however illustrate that, even by its own seriously flawed terms, Britain's "just repurpose the flu plan" response was far worse than it need have been.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

I wouldn't be surprised if, as a result, the UK just stays in lockdown for a while until some country works out how to come out with success..

Being optimistic, testing is finally ramping up a bit and new cases are level at around 4,000 a day with lots more tests happening. Being very optimistic and assuming that ppe provisions are improving and test and trace mechanisms are finally being worked on in earnest, with all that combined, we are, perhaps, about where Germany was three weeks ago.

But yeah, I think you're right. I've thought that for weeks. Let others make the mistakes and pretend if need be that somehow the '5 points' haven't been met until such a time as they see others working.

 

[weltweit]

I would prefer UK goes all out for suppression now, I don't fancy a second run at lockdown even if it was possibly regional rather than national. But with four thousand new cases identified a day presently, I think we are some way from easing restrictions.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

I would prefer UK goes all out for suppression now, I don't fancy a second run at lockdown even if it was possibly regional rather than national. But with four thousand new cases identified a day presently, I think we are some way from easing restrictions.

I'd give it at least a week at much higher testing levels and see where we are then. That number isn't all that meaningful at the moment.

 

[Pickman's model]

I would prefer UK goes all out for suppression now, I don't fancy a second run at lockdown even if it was possibly regional rather than national. But with four thousand new cases identified a day presently, I think we are some way from easing restrictions.

when i spoke to my supervisor yesterday he said face to face teaching may not be resumed before november. there are academic libraries extending loans to the end of september. preparations are being made to keep this going to six more months. it might be less than that. but i'm not expecting to be back at work before july.

 

[weltweit]

My German is a bit rusty but current news is all pretty much in German, Google Translate is a help.

A lot of German politicians and scientists are urging caution with respect of relaxing restrictions [1]

They are looking into how many unreported cases there are and carrying out studies into immunity of people who have recovered from covid-19 [2] including how many people present with antibodies. They discovered that 15% of the population of a test town had been infected by the virus some with mild cases and some with no symptoms at all.

[1] 29/04/2020 Spahn und Scholz plädieren für Lockerung in kleinen Schritten

[2] 28/04/2020 Covid-19 - Wie hoch die Dunkelziffer bei den Coronavirus-Infektionen ist


[3]

The number of test capacities has also increased - now to more than 860,000 per week. That means that almost twice as many people could be tested in Germany.
..
A problem with the PCR tests is the funding, which is covered by the health insurance companies for those who are legally insured, but only if those affected also show symptoms. So far, the health insurers have not paid for people without symptoms. "Many people see this problem," said Wieler. He hopes "that a solution will be found in the near future".

..
The Federal Ministry of Health has now presented a bundle of measures to create the basis for more tests. The health insurance companies should cover the costs - also for screening for nurses and those in need of care, as Federal Health Minister Jens Spahn announced.

[3] 29/04/2020 Coronavirus: 40 Prozent mehr Tests in Deutschland

 

[weltweit]

Germany. (Translated from Tagesspiegel.de)

Federal Minister of Health Jens Spahn (CDU) has spoken out for caution in easing the restrictions imposed by the corona pandemic. That is why it is right to take small steps forward instead of risking a big step backwards, Spahn wrote in a guest post for the “Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung”. Finance minister Olaf Scholz (SPD) also warned of too rapid easing. I know how stressful these restrictions are for all of us. But they were successful - we shouldn't gamble away this success now, ”said Scholz of the“ Passauer Neue Presse ”.

..
The four large, non-university research institutions in Germany have presented a two-phase model for the social handling of the coronavirus pandemic. In the first phase, new infections should be contained so that the contacts can be traced. The second phase is followed by an adaptive strategy based on low numbers of new infections (more in the news blog below).

from 29/04/2020 Spahn und Scholz plädieren für Lockerung in kleinen Schritten

 

[weltweit]

One more from the source above

The German government is expecting the worst post-war recession this year due to the coronavirus pandemic. The gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to collapse by 6.3 percent after adjustment for prices, according to the spring forecast.

I think if they manage only a 6.3% reduction in GDP they are doing pretty well.

 

[teuchter]

Comparisons to be made with care, as ever. Is that chart for hospital deaths in the UK?

I don't think anyone's holding Dublin's response up there with Taiwan's, South Korea's or New Zealand's. The entire West failed to treat Covid-19 with the seriousness due a SARS virus. It does however illustrate that, even by its own seriously flawed terms, Britain's "just repurpose the flu plan" response was far worse than it need have been.

No it doesn't.
There's no clear evidence of any significant difference in effectiveness between Ireland's response and the UK's.

 

[RTWL]

Sorry if this has been posted, not following this thread, but perhaps a sign of the end times - after a bit of an Internet rabbit hole ended up at the Daily Express (archaeology story, honest) to find this: Coronavirus shock claim: Noam Chomsky reveals 'true culprit' behind COVID-19 crisis Approving long quotes of Chomsky blaming it all on capitalism.

A bit more of Chomsky's analysis here back from the 17th.... contains Trump-Hitler comparisons lol .... also a bit of admiration for the Trump administration setup for managing to be just so fu*king evil :

 

[frogwoman]

Is there any truth to the claim that italy doesn't count care homes? I'm sure I've seen care home figures in Italy's figures before tbh. Thought it was just spain that hadn't started doing it.

 

[20Bees]

Did anyone watch BBC News Hard Talk at 00.30, grilling the Chinese ambassador? I only saw the last few minutes - wonder if it’s on iPlayer

 

[sheothebudworths]

Is there any truth to the claim that italy doesn't count care homes? I'm sure I've seen care home figures in Italy's figures before tbh. Thought it was just spain that hadn't started doing it.

In the new UK all-settings figures today, Italy was defo listed as another who has been including all of those numbers too. Spain was the major European country who might not be (but might be, too).

 

[Aladdin]

when i spoke to my supervisor yesterday he said face to face teaching may not be resumed before november. there are academic libraries extending loans to the end of september. preparations are being made to keep this going to six more months. it might be less than that. but i'm not expecting to be back at work before july.

Trinity college Dublin not opening til next January. Other Irish universities and colleges are following suit. University lecturers have been told to pass every student regardless of whether students have completed course work.

 

[Aladdin]

Is Ireland doing significantly better than the UK? Doesn't look like it to me.
View attachment 209673

An interactive visualization of COVID-19 | 91-DIVOC

An interactive, data-forward visualization of COVID-19 data by Prof. Wade at The University of Illinois. Updated daily.

91-divoc.com

Coronavirus live updates: News & Advice

The latest news and updates on the coronavirus outbreak from China and across the globe. Coronavirus tracker, spread of Wuhan Coronavirus in real time.

www.appurse.com

Yeah Ireland is doing a lot better than the UK. but still numbers are higher than one might think considering lockdown started a week before the UK.
Biggest problem here has been nursing and care homes. Very high death rates in these homes.
Still we are not becoming complacent, hopefully..

 

[weltweit]

Clinical trials for a treatment, Remdesivir, seem to show confusing results:

The most recent trial done in the USA by NIH suggests Remdesivir can shorten the recovery time in hospitalised patients, while the second earlier trial reported in the Lancet, suggests no effect.

from 29/04/2020 NIH clinical trial shows Remdesivir accelerates recovery from advanced COVID-19

NIH clinical trial shows Remdesivir accelerates recovery from advanced COVID-19

Hospitalized patients with advanced COVID-19 and lung involvement who received remdesivir recovered faster than similar patients who received placebo, according to a preliminary data analysis from a randomized, controlled trial involving 1063 patients, which began on February 21. The trial (known as the Adaptive COVID-19 Treatment Trial, or ACTT), sponsored by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), part of the National Institutes of Health, is the first clinical trial launched in the United States to evaluate an experimental treatment for COVID-19.

All well and good, but an earlier trial below found different things

from 29/04/2020 https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31022-9/fulltext

Remdesivir in adults with severe COVID-19: a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, multicentre trial

Findings
Between Feb 6, 2020, and March 12, 2020, 237 patients were enrolled and randomly assigned to a treatment group (158 to remdesivir and 79 to placebo); one patient in the placebo group who withdrew after randomisation was not included in the ITT population. Remdesivir use was not associated with a difference in time to clinical improvement (hazard ratio 1·23 [95% CI 0·87–1·75]). Although not statistically significant, patients receiving remdesivir had a numerically faster time to clinical improvement than those

receiving placebo among patients with symptom duration of 10 days or less (hazard ratio 1·52 [0·95–2·43]). Adverse events were reported in 102 (66%) of 155 remdesivir recipients versus 50 (64%) of 78 placebo recipients. Remdesivir was stopped early because of adverse events in 18 (12%) patients versus four (5%) patients who stopped placebo early.
..
Interpretation
In this study of adult patients admitted to hospital for severe COVID-19, remdesivir was not associated with statistically significant clinical benefits. However, the numerical reduction in time to clinical improvement in those treated earlier requires confirmation in larger studies.

 

[weltweit]

It does look like this post of mine on Remdesivir might have been premature:
Posted on internet on 23/04/2020 Coronavirus - worldwide breaking news, discussion, stats, updates and more

 

[weltweit]

It looks like there may be a consensus that Remdesivir may offer some level of treatment:

from 29/04/2020 Drug has 'clear-cut' power to fight coronavirus

There is "clear-cut" evidence that a drug can help people recover from the coronavirus, say US officials.

Remdesivir cut the duration of symptoms from 15 days down to 11 in clinical trial at hospitals around the world.

The full details have not been published, but experts said it would be a "fantastic result" if confirmed, but not a "magic bullet" for the disease.
..
Remdesivir was originally developed as an Ebola treatment. It is an antiviral and works by attacking an enzyme that a virus needs in order to replicate inside our cells.
..

Dr Anthony Fauci who runs the NIAID said: "The data shows remdesivir has a clear-cut, significant, positive effect in diminishing the time to recovery."
..
Prof Peter Horby, from the University of Oxford, is running the world's largest trial of Covid-19 drugs. He said: "We need to see the full results, but if confirmed this would be a fantastic result and great news for the fight against Covid-19.

and

From Gilead, the manufacturer of Remdesivir:

from 29/04/2020 Gilead Announces Results From Phase 3 Trial of Investigational Antiviral Remdesivir in Patients With Severe COVID-19


more from 29/04/2020 Remdesivir: early findings on experimental coronavirus drug offer 'quite good news'

 

[teuchter]

Coronavirus live updates: News & Advice

The latest news and updates on the coronavirus outbreak from China and across the globe. Coronavirus tracker, spread of Wuhan Coronavirus in real time.

www.appurse.com

Yeah Ireland is doing a lot better than the UK. but still numbers are higher than one might think considering lockdown started a week before the UK.
Biggest problem here has been nursing and care homes. Very high death rates in these homes.
Still we are not becoming complacent, hopefully..

Your link shows numbers at the moment, but the UK is further into the process than Ireland is. Look at the graph I posted. If you take numbers measured the same number of days from the first death, the UK has approximately 10 times Ireland's deaths, but it's also got about 10 times the population. It's not doing a lot better than the UK at all, unless you disagree about the start date for the measurements.

 

[Aladdin]

Your link shows numbers at the moment, but the UK is further into the process than Ireland is. Look at the graph I posted. If you take numbers measured the same number of days from the first death, the UK has approximately 10 times Ireland's deaths, but it's also got about 10 times the population. It's not doing a lot better than the UK at all, unless you disagree about the start date for the measurements.

Honestly? I dont really know what the graph shows because on the phone it is hard to read. Most deaths in Ireland have been in nursing homes and care homes. These are all recorded here. Unlike the UK who are only now including those deaths.

 

[teuchter]

Honestly? I dont really know what the graph shows because on the phone it is hard to read. Most deaths in Ireland have been in nursing homes and care homes. These are all recorded here. Unlike the UK who are only now including those deaths.

If it's the case that we are confident Ireland's count is the full count, and the UK's is significantly lower than the real number, then that would make a difference. Still though, Ireland's numbers are closer to the UK's than they are to say Germany.