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[elbows]

I've spoken a bit on UK-specific threads about using total excess mortality data rather than only the deaths with Covid-19 on the death certificate. I havent had much chance to apply the same logic to other countries yet, but here is a free FT article that is tracking just such things.

I'm afraid the picture is grim.

Global coronavirus death toll could be 60% higher than reported | Free to read

Mortality statistics show 122,000 deaths in excess of normal levels across 14 countries analysed by the FT

www.ft.com

Germany interests me a lot but even their full data in this regard for March isnt available quite yet, so they dont feature in the FT article yet. And although the March data will give me some clues, its really April that I am interested in, so likely a long wait for that.

 

[elbows]

Few more observations about Germany's easing of restrictions. As of last week, shops under a certain size were allowed to reopen, and final year groups have returned to school. Schools felt poorly prepared, both in terms of longstanding poor standards (lack of sinks and soap etc) as well as the short lead-time from political annoucement to actual students being back in the classroom.
After the last few weeks of federal unity, the indiviual states are now interpreting the slightly relaxed rules differently. Sachsen for example is allowing religious services of up to 15 people, Northrhine-Westphalia has made an exemption to the (perceived by many as somewhat arbitrary) 800 square metre rule to allow furniture stores over this size to open. Face coverings are compulsory in the whole country as of today on puplic transport and in shops.
Many leading scientists are very concerned, both about the current easing, as well as about the calls for further loosening from different lobby groups this has inevitably spawned, worrying about the watering down of the message of how serious the situation remains. Despite the relatively good current situation in hospitals with many ICUs way under capacity, the concern is of course that a potential new exponential rise of cases would spiral quickly out of control as test and trace is not yet fully operative. The app is considered to be a fundamental part of this, as otherwise any test and trace will come too late, i.e. after the infected person has already infected more who have already infected more etc. Progess with the app has apparently been slow because of concerns about data protection (-just noticed Mation posted something about this).
What I also found interesting, as well as slightly depressing, given the long way we are away from this, was the assessment of a politician and epidemologist (albeit one of the most "pessimistic", cautioning voices) of what would be needed to safely maintain the current easing as well as possibly go further in future: Medical grade face masks for everyone (not the homemade ones) and the contact tracing app (with an uptake of around 60% of the population as I understand), supported by up to 2 million (gulp!) tests per week.

Thanks for the info. I found an article about a bunch of these aspects and resulting concerns. I am nervous about the situation there when I read some of this.

Science | AAAS

www.sciencemag.org

 

[frogwoman]

My mate lives in Germany in a customer facing role and is very worried about reopening. She says there are plans to allow groups of 50 people in Berlin from the beginning of May.

 

[elbows]

I wont be surprised if the difference between countries/regions getting away with some of this stuff and not, comes down to what percentage of their populations remain personally concerned to the extent that they basically end up ignoring a good proportion of the relaxations and carry on staying away from various locations. Some businesses that have pressed for reopening may be very dissapointed with the customer footfall they end up with to start with. I'm not suggesting this will always be the case, I am concerned, but I know that there is a buffer of public behaviour between the political and business decisions and the horrors of renewed epidemic growth.

 

[Humberto]

Take it on the chin. Let's get ready to rumble. What was the Churchill shit, did I miss anything?

 

[weltweit]

New Zealand is apparently starting to relax lockdown.

11am today a minute's silence for care UK workers.

 

[redsquirrel]

11am today a minute's silence for care UK workers.

Pedantic but it's actually all workers that have been killed at work - part of International Workers Memorial Day

 

[Anju]

Some detail on how regional government want to handle reopening of bars, restaurants, shops and places of worship in Andalusia.

La Junta propone 30 minutos máximos en los bares y 90 en los restaurantes de Andalucía

"The Board proposes a maximum of 30 minutes in bars and 90 in restaurants in Andalusia"

"Thus, it will be mandatory a medical examination of all employees before joining their job and it will be necessary to take the temperature to customers who want to access the premises, in addition to maintaining safety distances and the use of masks and hydroalcools in all the establishments.

The Board's recommendation is that there should be no more than 30 minutes for breakfast and 90 minutes for main meals. In addition, reservations for more than four people will not be allowed and dishes cannot be shared between diners.

Likewise, the installation of filters in the air conditioning systems and the implementation of several meal shifts are requested at 2:00 pm and 3:30 pm so that there is time for the disinfection of the establishments."

Not sure how effective this sort of thing would be in stopping the spread of the virus or if it will allow enough trade for businesses to survive, especially as many places will normally rely on tourists or locals who earn their money through tourism. All a bit wishful thinking isn't it?

Also, hopefully just a Google translate error.

"We believe that it is a social demand to be able to fire the people who have died"

 

[littlebabyjesus]

I wont be surprised if the difference between countries/regions getting away with some of this stuff and not, comes down to what percentage of their populations remain personally concerned to the extent that they basically end up ignoring a good proportion of the relaxations and carry on staying away from various locations. Some businesses that have pressed for reopening may be very dissapointed with the customer footfall they end up with to start with. I'm not suggesting this will always be the case, I am concerned, but I know that there is a buffer of public behaviour between the political and business decisions and the horrors of renewed epidemic growth.

The week before lockdown, the pubs around me were all very nearly empty - two or three people in each at after-work time when they would normally be packed. It's been mentioned that pubs will be rammed when they reopen, but I think you're right and they'll be nearly empty at first. tbh this may end up being a key to the way lockdown easing works - we informally ease ourselves out of it in much the same way that we informally eased ourselves into it.

Thing is we still don't really know how bad places like pubs and restaurants were for transmission. Do we know how many pub staff came down with it vs the general population, for instance? Would be worth knowing. We know about transport workers, but not so much about others. I still think packed public transport, with its various means of transmission, is likely to be a much bigger issue. I've been very resistant to the idea of masks, but perhaps a compulsory mask on the tube/trains for a while might be sensible.

 

[William of Walworth]

[Quoting the Andalucian regional government, presumably] :

"The Board proposes a maximum of 30 minutes in bars and 90 in restaurants in Andalusia"

This would surely be very difficult to enforce there?

And as for UK pubs? I don't see anything even remotely similar** being workable

**I know it's not been suggested here, but!!

 

[jontz01]

New Zealand is apparently starting to relax lockdown.

We've just moved into level 3 lockdown. It's essentially the same rules but with an interest in getting the economy started again. Stay at home except for essential travel. Construction and forestry industries starting up again. Some cafes and fast food able to do contactless transactions. You're allowed to widen your bubble slightly. We can travel within the region for essential reasons.

I'm 'stuck' on Mt Maunganui beach. It's visibly much busier today. All of a sudden, there is traffic, lots of it. Surf's up and people are hitting the water in abundance.

 

[Petcha]

We've just moved into level 3 lockdown. It's essentially the same rules but with an interest in getting the economy started again. Stay at home except for essential travel. Construction and forestry industries starting up again. Some cafes and fast food able to do contactless transactions. You're allowed to widen your bubble slightly. We can travel within the region for essential reasons.

I'm 'stuck' on Mt Maunganui beach. It's visibly much busier today. All of a sudden, there is traffic, lots of it. Surf's up and people are hitting the water in abundance.

Are the airports still shut? I've got a mate who's 'stuck' down there too.

 

[Petcha]

That whole 'level' system you have operating there makes a lot of sense. At least the public knows where it stands and what the actual rules are at any point.

 

[jontz01]

Are the airports still shut? I've got a mate who's 'stuck' down there too.

Borders are closed to incoming traffic. I think there's still a few outbound flights for displaced people... internal flights are only available for those trying to leave the country. We were called by the British high commission the other day as apparently UK have put on 5 flights for standed people. We were classed as high priority as my wife is 7 months preggers and we've got a 4 year old. We turned down the offer of the flight. I'll do another post in the personal circumstances thread when I get chance so as to not derail this too far...

The level system is great. You know exactly what you are and aren't allowed to do, with updates daily from either the PM or her mateys. She's the only politician I've ever trusted in my life. She speaks to you like a caring mother.

 

[Petcha]

Borders are closed to incoming traffic. I think there's still a few outbound flights for displaced people... internal flights are only available for those trying to leave the country. We were called by the British high commission the other day as apparently UK have put on 5 flights for standed people. We were classed as high priority as my wife is 7 months preggers and we've got a 4 year old. We turned down the offer of the flight. I'll do another post in the personal circumstances thread when I get chance so as to not derail this too far...

The level system is great. You know exactly what you are and aren't allowed to do, with updates daily from either the PM or her mateys. She's the only politician I've ever trusted in my life. She speaks to you like a caring mother.

I'd just stay there if I was you. Our daily updates come from the likes of Priti Patel trumpeting the fact that shoplifting has gone down, because, er, the shops are shut and Matt Hancock not actually telling us anything about when we might possibly come out of this. Yes, the Kiwi PM seems to be a cut above but presumably she's also been receiving slightly better scientific advice from the start. It certainly couldn't be worse than the chief scientist here.

 

[zora]

Just posted on the football and coronavirus thread about the plans to restart the Bundesliga from as early as 9 May (behind closed doors, of course). Also linked to this Guardian article on the topic there.

 

[SheilaNaGig]

Could someone comment on this for me please:

A friend said to me yesterday that it is striking that countries with better plans and outcomes are those with high ranking politicians and policy makers who have a science and /or medical background.

Merkel was a research chemist I think, and apparently someone high up in S Korea is a virologist or epidemiologist.

It would make sense.

Is this true?

Is this more widely the case?

 

[frogwoman]

Deaths in Nigerian city raise concerns over undetected Covid-19 outbreaks nooooooo

 

[maomao]

Could someone comment on this for me please:

A friend said to me yesterday that it is striking that countries with better plans and outcomes are those with high ranking politicians and policy makers who have a science and /or medical background.

Merkel was a research chemist I think, and apparently someone high up in S Korea is a virologist or epidemiologist.

It would make sense.

Is this true?

Is this more widely the case?

I've just been through half the UK cabinet's education and they all did bloody PPE. No wonder our health secretary can't pronounce 'asymptomatic'.

 

[Lord Camomile]

Pedantic but it's actually all workers that have been killed at work - part of International Workers Memorial Day

Yeah, that has, unsurprisingly, been lost on most. On the BBC it was definitely presented as for 'keyworkers' rather than everyone.

 

[elbows]

Could someone comment on this for me please:

A friend said to me yesterday that it is striking that countries with better plans and outcomes are those with high ranking politicians and policy makers who have a science and /or medical background.

Merkel was a research chemist I think, and apparently someone high up in S Korea is a virologist or epidemiologist.

It would make sense.

Is this true?

Is this more widely the case?

I cannot say whether that is a factor. I can say that it isnt the only one, because there are a bunch of longer term reasons why some countries responded better. Germany maintained a much larger ICU capacity over many years, and had a decentralised and large diagnostics industry which made a large difference in their ability to test in relatively large numbers. Merkel didnt scupper these things during her time in power, but I expect she is also not the originator of them, original decisions about these things probably happened a long, long time ago.

Plus the differences in timing and overall approach from Germany were not radically different - they were a bit different, and the testing regime clearly had a notable effect, but its not like they were miles ahead of everyone else when it came to lockdown, it still took what happened in Italy (and then Spain) for lockdowns to suddenly be considered viable and essential in the EU.

Recently Whitty said that when he talked to his German counterparts, they werent too sure why they were quite as successful as they appear to have been so far. In some ways this sounds like a very silly thing to say, but in others there is probably some truth to it. Partly because erring on the side of caution means they do not want to judge themselves as a big success yet, early gains, even impressively large ones, could still be lost in theory. And the reasons for the successes so far may be a combination of the obvious things we all seize upon (testing, hospital capacity) but also some others that havent really been in the spotlight yet. We know that infection control in care homes and hospitals can be quite the difference makers, and could presume that Germany had some success on these fronts, but some of those successes could have been down somewhat to luck or some existing characteristics of their care home sector or societal behaviour.

I could also suggest that gains made by Germany were amplified by the timing. In theory locking down one week earlier in the epidemic wave would make a very notable difference to how big that wave got. But its not just a question of pure timing, the key is timing of lockdown relative to stage of epidemic at that moment. So if Germanys epidemic was at an earlier stage when they locked down, because for example their testing regime had slowed the growth there during some key weeks, then this ends up being somewhat equivalent to having locked down weeks earlier than some other countries, even if they were not actually weeks earlier based purely on the calendar.

 

[planetgeli]

I've just been through half the UK cabinet's education and they all did bloody PPE. No wonder our health secretary can't pronounce 'asymptomatic'.

They might have done PPE then but they ain't doing PPE now.

Yes I know what PPE is, that's the dark humour.

 

[SheilaNaGig]

I've just been through half the UK cabinet's education and they all did bloody PPE. No wonder our health secretary can't pronounce 'asymptomatic'.

I think it’s a truth universally acknowledged that politicians who are career politicians are shit politicians.


Also, I had to re-read PPE several time to even remember that PPE isn’t PPE.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Could someone comment on this for me please:

A friend said to me yesterday that it is striking that countries with better plans and outcomes are those with high ranking politicians and policy makers who have a science and /or medical background.

Merkel was a research chemist I think, and apparently someone high up in S Korea is a virologist or epidemiologist.

It would make sense.

Is this true?

Is this more widely the case?

Remember that Thatcher was a research chemist as well... Thatcher would probably have handled this far better than Johnson as well, though, tbf. Millions of people could.

New Zealand's Jacinta Ardern has a background in PR and policy wonkdom.

 

[redsquirrel]

Yeah, that has, unsurprisingly, been lost on most. On the BBC it was definitely presented as for 'keyworkers' rather than everyone.

Yep not seen a single media outlet report this initiative as something from workers and unions rather than the government. Fuckers

 

[maomao]

I think it’s a truth universally acknowledged that politicians who are career politicians are shit politicians.

Well the only science graduate UK politician who springs to mind was a very effective politician. Not sure I'd want her in charge now and more than I did then though.

 

[platinumsage]

Could someone comment on this for me please:

A friend said to me yesterday that it is striking that countries with better plans and outcomes are those with high ranking politicians and policy makers who have a science and /or medical background.

Merkel was a research chemist I think, and apparently someone high up in S Korea is a virologist or epidemiologist.

It would make sense.

Is this true?

Is this more widely the case?

Are you suggesting Thatcher would have done a good job?

I've just been through half the UK cabinet's education and they all did bloody PPE. No wonder our health secretary can't pronounce 'asymptomatic'.

PPE does happen to be arguably the most appropriate course in the best university for those wanting to enter politics, so it's not really a surprise that half the cabinet have done it, although I'm sure we'd all like more people along the lines of Nadine Dorries government.

 

[2hats]

Merkel was a research chemist I think

Physics then a doctorate in quantum chemistry (molecular quantum mechanics).

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Physics then a doctorate in quantum chemistry (molecular quantum mechanics).

Yeah, a bit more highly qualified in her field than Thatcher, tbf, who quickly switched to law.

 

[maomao]

PPE does happen to be arguably the most appropriate course in the best university for those wanting to enter politics, so it's not really a surprise that half the cabinet have done it, although I'm sure we'd all like more people along the lines of Nadine Dorries government.

Well there's obviously something wrong with politics then. And I know little about Dorries and doubt there's much to impress but I'd rather the country were being run by qualified nurses than PPE graduates right now. Or at any time for that matter.