Coronavirus - worldwide breaking news, discussion, stats, updates and more

[weltweit]

Using survivors blood to treat coronavirus

Blood from recovered coronavirus victims helps patient come off ventilator in just two days

In trial, 10 severely-ill patients made recoveries after receiving antibodies from people who had successfully fought the Covid-19 virus
..
The first trials looking at whether antibodies of people who have successfully fought the virus can help others do the same found that all 10 severely ill patients made a speedy recovery.

The treatment, known as convalescent plasma (CP) therapy, was used during the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic before vaccines or antivirals were available.

from 07/04/2020 Blood from recovered coronavirus victims helps patient come off ventilator in just two days


Plasma from coronavirus survivors found to help severely ill patients

Two teams of medics working at separate hospitals in China gave antibody-rich plasma to 15 severely ill patients and recorded striking improvements in many of them.
..
Tappin said the cases reported from Wuhan were important because they suggested that giving plasma to severely ill patients appeared to be safe. “The outcomes are also encouraging for these patients,” he said. But he added that to be sure plasma improved on the natural course of the disease, and that it was safe in larger groups of patients, formal trials had to take place.

from 07/04/2020 Plasma from coronavirus survivors found to help severely ill patients


UK to trial coronavirus treatments using blood from survivors

Health officials have prioritised two clinical trials that will be supplied with blood from recovered Covid-19 patients in the hope that transfusions can help save the lives of people hospitalised with the infection.
..
The Recovery trial will assess whether the plasma helps patients to recover before they are admitted to intensive care, while the Remap-Cap trial will investigate whether similar transfusions help to save patients who are already in high-dependency or intensive care units.

from 20/04/2020 UK to trial coronavirus treatments using blood from survivors

NHS appeals for blood plasma from survivors for trial to help new COVID-19 patients

It wants to use this in clinical trials in its fight against the pandemic, but says donors must have tested positive for the illness, either at home or in hospital, and should now be three to four weeks into their recovery - ideally 29 days.
..
Plasma donation is not the same as blood donation.

The process takes around 45 minutes because it separates plasma from the blood as you donate, in a process called apheresis.

from 20/04/2020 Coronavirus: NHS appeals for blood plasma from survivors for trial to help new COVID-19 patients

 

[weltweit]

UK approves clinical trial of treatment that uses plasma from recovered patients

Professor Jonathan Van Tam, deputy chief medical officer, said: “The UK is leading the world’s largest trials to find a treatment for Covid-19, with over 7,000 people so far involved testing a range of medicines; we hope to add convalescent plasma to this list shortly.
..
Explaining the 45-minute plasma collection process, the Department of Health said blood is taken from one arm and circulated through a machine that separates out the plasma, and the blood is then returned to the donor.

from 25/04/2020 UK approves clinical trial of plasma treatment for coronavirus patients

 

[quimcunx]

So, it's not just idiots in the US protesting about the lockdown, yesterday German police arrested more than 100 people out of around a 1000 protesting in Berlin, and apparently this was the fourth week of such demonstrations.

Hardly surprising that the protesters included well-known far-right nut-jobs and conspiracy theorists.

German conspiracists protest coronavirus lockdown – DW – 04/25/2020

People in Berlin and Stuttgart took to the streets to protest against a loss of freedoms amid the coronavirus pandemic. Despite the demonstrations, most Germans back restrictions aimed at curbing the spread of COVID-19.

www.dw.com

Naturapathy is more popular and accepted in Germany. Maybe there is a tie in.

 

[treelover]

BBC News saying it was organised by 'the left'

 

[treelover]

Coronavirus: Spain's children run free from lockdown - but not all

After six weeks indoors, under-14s are being let out of doors, but how damaging was the lockdown?

www.bbc.co.uk

Great to see spanish kids getting out, (not all) even for an hour, there last year and they seemed pretty free range.

 

[SheilaNaGig]

This article in a US publication has a few snaps and clips showing the good results of humans being off the streets: the gorgeous sky over LA, a peacock wandering about in Dubai, wild boar in Barcelona... and "Londoners also spotted a wild fox..."

LA's skies are smog-free and peacocks are roaming the streets of Dubai. Photos show how nature has returned to cities shut down by the coronavirus pandemic.

Air pollution dropped in several cities, while mountain goats overran a Welsh town as people stay indoors to slow the spread of the novel coronavirus.

www.businessinsider.com

 

[editor]

'Life' returns to Wuhan:

Inside the Dystopian, Post-Lockdown World of Wuhan

The first epicenter is coming back to life, but not as anyone knew it.

www.bloomberg.com

 

[weltweit]

Spanish Children were allowed out today for the first time since their lockdown.

Spain is gradually easing their lockdown as cases fall.

 

[editor]

Powerful stuff from a nurse:

Anyone protesting should forfeit their rights to receive any medical care. NONE. You are putting the lives of anyone you come into contact with because of your boredom and selfishness. You are putting every single healthcare worker’s life not only at an increased risk, but your disrespect for humankind because of your ignorance and stupidity is beyond appalling. You are a disgrace.

Running out of Outlets

Wake up. Eat breakfast. Put my mask on and walk to work in the brisk, early morning sunlight of New Jersey. My shift starts at 07:00. As I walk into the hospital, like every day, I am stopped for a…

kristenfmartins.wordpress.com

 

[teuchter]

This article in a US publication has a few snaps and clips showing the good results of humans being off the streets: the gorgeous sky over LA, a peacock wandering about in Dubai, wild boar in Barcelona... and "Londoners also spotted a wild fox..."

LA's skies are smog-free and peacocks are roaming the streets of Dubai. Photos show how nature has returned to cities shut down by the coronavirus pandemic.

Air pollution dropped in several cities, while mountain goats overran a Welsh town as people stay indoors to slow the spread of the novel coronavirus.

www.businessinsider.com

That photo of a fox on a London street... Foxes on the streets of London. Who would have thought we'd see the day. Mind blowing.

 

[Yu_Gi_Oh]

I know it's easy to see the photos of everyone in hazmat suits in China and feel chilled, and when I first got here, I felt scared too, but they are just people in really good PPE. You expect people in hazmat suits to be cold, remote agents of something frightening, but they're actually just normal people who are just as kind and cordial as they were before they had to wear the PPE.

Those people in that photo who are standing in the doorway, they work at a bank. They need to come into contact with lots of people. I'm glad they're protected. I've been that guy in the photo sitting in the chair outside being swabbed for a covid test. It was over in seconds. They were kind to me. I'm glad that I know I haven't brought the virus into my community. I'm glad they're checking. The test was free.

Life after lockdown doesn't look the same as it did before.

 

[scifisam]

That photo of a fox on a London street... Foxes on the streets of London. Who would have thought we'd see the day. Mind blowing.

I don't like those kinds of articles. There are genuine measures that say that pollution has decreased, temporarily, but most of the "animals are moving into the cities" stuff is about animals that already lived in cities. It will make people complacent if they think that all we have to do is curtail some activities for a few weeks and suddenly cities are wild free roaming zoos.

 

[JimW]

I know it's easy to see the photos of everyone in hazmat suits in China and feel chilled, and when I first got here, I felt scared too, but they are just people in really good PPE. You expect people in hazmat suits to be cold, remote agents of something frightening, but they're actually just normal people who are just as kind and cordial as they were before they had to wear the PPE.

Well said. I had to go to the tax office in town last week and they had stringent checks on everyone in and out. The QR code that brings up your personal health confirmation APP wasn't set up to work with the foreign passport holder version so friendly staff went out of their way to help me find another way in.
Seen some stuff about petty abuses by quarantine enforcers in some places (e.g. that family playing mah jong in their own home getting raided) but my personal experience has been of a service attitude designed to protect.
Lot less "dystopian" than a free market lottery where the poor can crawl off and die in a corner and who cares if more black people die. And they wonder why foreign press legitimate comment on China's many ills gets short shrift.

 

[Mation]

Well said. I had to go to the tax office in town last week and they had stringent checks on everyone in and out. The QR code that brings up your personal health confirmation APP wasn't set up to work with the foreign passport holder version so friendly staff went out of their way to help me find another way in.
Seen some stuff about petty abuses by quarantine enforcers in some places (e.g. that family playing mah jong in their own home getting raided) but my personal experience has been of a service attitude designed to protect.
Lot less "dystopian" than a free market lottery where the poor can crawl off and die in a corner and who cares if more black people die. And they wonder why foreign press legitimate comment on China's many ills gets short shrift.

Are you white?

 

[JimW]

Are you white?

Yes.

 

[Mation]

This is interesting. I hadn't thought about the idea of a peer to peer/decentralised contact tracing app (and wasn't likely to, tbh). It would definitely help me trust using one. Are any other countries looking at this kind of model?

Germany ditches centralized approach to app for COVID-19 contacts tracing

In Europe in recent weeks, a battle has raged between different groups backing centralized vs decentralized infrastructure for apps being fast-tracked by governments which will use Bluetooth-based smartphone proximity as a proxy for infection risk — in the hopes of supporting the public health response to the coronavirus by automating some contacts tracing.

Centralized approaches that have been proposed in the region would see pseudonymized proximity data stored and processed on a server controlled by a national authority, such as a healthcare service. However concerns have been raised about allowing authorities to scoop up citizens’ social graph, with privacy experts warning of the risk of function creep and even state surveillance.

Decentralized contacts tracing infrastructure, by contrast, means ephemeral IDs are stored locally on device — and only uploaded with a user’s permission after a confirmed COVID-19 diagnosis. A relay server is used to broadcast infected IDs — enabling devices to locally compute if there’s a risk that requires notification. So social graph data is not centralized.

 

[2hats]

Interesting, lengthy interview with Neil Ferguson here, recorded over the weekend.

Describes the situation in Sweden, comparing Stockholm, London and NYC (the first now approaching the third). IFR - suggests overall it is maybe around 0.8-0.9% for the UK but makes the point that it is fairly meaningless to talk about it without relating it to age demographic (London, NYC much younger populations so IFR~0.6%, in Stockholm with an older population IFR will be higher). Discusses public behaviour in response to the virus and the 'voluntary lockdown', population adherence and consequences for the reproduction number (brought down to 0.6-0.7 right now). This equates to small wiggle room so one has to be cautious about release and suggests looking towards ROK for social distancing ideas, tracing, tracking and isolating. Mentions that every country has failed to shield the elderly population particularly well. Getting on top of infection control in hospitals and care homes is one of the keys. Lockdown has been important in keeping the healthcare system in a state such that it can (potentially) soon resume elective procedures with minimal risk to the patients concerned. On letting the younger demographic run free whilst shielding the elderly/vulnerable - that this is impractical as the latter group have so much exposure to the care/health system, ie least able to be isolated (for such an approach their modelling suggests maybe 100,000+ dead later this year). Also touches on the role of SAGE, behaviour of observers and the relationship between science and politics. The danger of those with political agendas distorting the scientific view to their own ends. Is currently modelling options for lockdown relaxation.

 

[elbows]

I salute his attention to infection control, and the realities of how effective shielding of the vulnerable would be as a strategy without other measures in place as well (not effective enough). I didnt know about the New York serology study, will look into that. Towards the end we also get a glimpse of how it is still sinking in that the orthodox mitigation approach actually gave way to a suppression approach (either just in time or not in time depending on what measure you use to judge). I bet it is slightly surreal for him still, there was no guarantee their March stance would have been quite so influential as it turned out to be. Although to be honest, when I go back and watch press conferences from March 9th and 12th, it was already clear that the political equation was changing in terms of the political viability of the original approach (so much effort was going into explaining why we werent doing the same things at the same time as other countries, things were becoming ripe for a u-turn), so its a bit less surprising that the previously unthinkable suddenly became the new normal.

I dont really blame him for not wanting to get dragged into aspects of the Cummings-SAGE angle, and there are plenty of others who seem happy to do so, and to have a more publicly critical relationship with the government. I dont need Ferguson to do that, and he does plenty else of use that I dont want jeopardised.

Nice to see a focus on South Korea too. I took a very cautious approach in terms of not wanting to judge any countries as being a big success too quickly, but its probably time for me to start moving on from that because we have to learn and implement some lessons from other places now, even if its still a bit soon to do final judgements on their approaches and longer term implications of them.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Nice to see a focus on South Korea too. I took a very cautious approach in terms of not wanting to judge any countries as being a big success too quickly, but its probably time for me to start moving on from that because we have to learn and implement some lessons from other places now, even if its still a bit soon to do final judgements on their approaches and longer term implications of them.

Yep. The bottom line with South Korea, whatever else happens from now, is that they saved masses of lives and bought themselves a big chunk of time. Also, it does look like the system they now have in place is a relatively robust one wrt keeping a lid on things for as long as it takes.

Sadly it looks increasingly that Sweden's (and the UK's original) approach is based on false assumptions drawn from handling the flu. This looks like it is several times deadlier than the flu. The idea that we'll all end up in more or less the same place is patently wrong, and I suspect a degree of wishful thinking creeping in among those who still advocate this line.

 

[zora]

Few more observations about Germany's easing of restrictions. As of last week, shops under a certain size were allowed to reopen, and final year groups have returned to school. Schools felt poorly prepared, both in terms of longstanding poor standards (lack of sinks and soap etc) as well as the short lead-time from political annoucement to actual students being back in the classroom.
After the last few weeks of federal unity, the indiviual states are now interpreting the slightly relaxed rules differently. Sachsen for example is allowing religious services of up to 15 people, Northrhine-Westphalia has made an exemption to the (perceived by many as somewhat arbitrary) 800 square metre rule to allow furniture stores over this size to open. Face coverings are compulsory in the whole country as of today on puplic transport and in shops.
Many leading scientists are very concerned, both about the current easing, as well as about the calls for further loosening from different lobby groups this has inevitably spawned, worrying about the watering down of the message of how serious the situation remains. Despite the relatively good current situation in hospitals with many ICUs way under capacity, the concern is of course that a potential new exponential rise of cases would spiral quickly out of control as test and trace is not yet fully operative. The app is considered to be a fundamental part of this, as otherwise any test and trace will come too late, i.e. after the infected person has already infected more who have already infected more etc. Progess with the app has apparently been slow because of concerns about data protection (-just noticed Mation posted something about this).
What I also found interesting, as well as slightly depressing, given the long way we are away from this, was the assessment of a politician and epidemologist (albeit one of the most "pessimistic", cautioning voices) of what would be needed to safely maintain the current easing as well as possibly go further in future: Medical grade face masks for everyone (not the homemade ones) and the contact tracing app (with an uptake of around 60% of the population as I understand), supported by up to 2 million (gulp!) tests per week.

 

[elbows]

Yep. The bottom line with South Korea, whatever else happens from now, is that they saved masses of lives and bought themselves a big chunk of time. Also, it does look like the system they now have in place is a relatively robust one wrt keeping a lid on things for as long as it takes.

Sadly it looks increasingly that Sweden's (and the UK's original) approach is based on false assumptions drawn from handling the flu. This looks like it is several times deadlier than the flu. The idea that we'll all end up in more or less the same place is patently wrong, and I suspect a degree of wishful thinking creeping in among those who still advocate this line.

I think the main thing that made me cautious and skeptical about successes elsewhere was whether they could keep the numbers low enough that the testing, tracing and isolation system could remain practical at all stages. I wanted to wait and see with that side of things, given that at the time the UK had already allowed the situation to get so far out of control that it would be a while before we could possibly get back to a situation where we could implement such a system. This week I will try to spend some time absorbing news from South Korea so I can get up to date with where they are at.

The lesson from countries like South Korea that I thought we could have accepted in a timely fashion right from the start, is infection control in hospitals. Its so bloody obvious that it doesnt require a wait and see approach. One of the reasons South Korea has done well on that front is that they had a nasty early warning, when there was an outbreak in a psychiatric ward. Because this happened early and they noticed, they were able to learn quickly from it and do something before infection became too widespread to nip in the bud in hospital settings more broadly. I worry about how well the UK will manage that stuff even once we've reached a point where number of infections in general fall to levels where we can start to consider getting a proper grip on these matters. You only have to look at images of Covid-19 healthcare in South Korea to see why I worry about the UK in comparison, they have really strong protection for medical workers in the Covid-19 hospitals, and probably started with far better equipment, number of negative pressure rooms etc.

I'll save most of my thoughts on Sweden for the Sweden thread, but yes I still watch with interest to see what happens to their stance and those who want to use it to serve an agenda about lockdown and the future. Given the picture from serology studies so far in various places is not coming to their rescue, at this rate they will be left clinging to the idea that there is some kind of other lower ceiling of population susceptibility that is not understood at all but will come into view at some point. I wouldnt be betting my reputation or anybodies life on that being a thing, even though I do not rule it out and still, when searching for random future hope personally, consider it with interest.

 

[Yu_Gi_Oh]

South Korea also deserves enormous credit for implementing a proper quarantine upon arrival but not closing their border to those who are not citizens, and still allowing transit through their airports. Seoul Incheon Airport provides a route out of the region for many who are trying to get home. SK's just doing an all-round tremendous job.

 

[The39thStep]

Yep. The bottom line with South Korea, whatever else happens from now, is that they saved masses of lives and bought themselves a big chunk of time. Also, it does look like the system they now have in place is a relatively robust one wrt keeping a lid on things for as long as it takes.

Sadly it looks increasingly that Sweden's (and the UK's original) approach is based on false assumptions drawn from handling the flu. This looks like it is several times deadlier than the flu. The idea that we'll all end up in more or less the same place is patently wrong, and I suspect a degree of wishful thinking creeping in among those who still advocate this line.

I dont know if you've read this but I found it gave me food for thought .
Which epidemiologist do you believe? - UnHerd

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Given the picture from serology studies so far in various places is not coming to their rescue, at this rate they will be left clinging to the idea that there is some kind of other lower ceiling of population susceptibility that is not understood at all but will come into view at some point. I wouldnt be betting my reputation or anybodies life on that being a thing, even though I do not rule it out and still, when searching for random future hope personally, consider it with interest.

That has peeped its head up tantalisingly a few times now. I also await more evidence with huge interest. If it does prove to be true, those betting on herd immunity will have rather lucked out, cos at no point have I heard from its advocates anything remotely like 'well, you know, two-thirds of us can't catch it anyway'.

 

[MrCurry]

Thanks for posting the interview 2hats - interesting stuff! In the fullness of time we will see who was right I suppose.

Did you read the comments on the YouTube video? Extraordinary conspiraloonery, ranting and accusations levelled being against Ferguson, with more than a few people suggesting he should be killed. I know the YT comments section is often filled with unhinged views, but the level of venom surprised me.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

I dont know if you've read this but I found it gave me food for thought .
Which epidemiologist do you believe? - UnHerd

Yeah, I watched the Giesecke interview last week. Problem is, as Ferguson points out, the assumptions Giesecke's approach is based on look like they are not correct, meaning that Sweden is experiencing high numbers of deaths without even getting close to herd immunity.

There are certain things here that either one or the other is right about, and as elbows points out above, the serology testing thus far does not support Giesecke's pov. So it's not quite a case of whom you choose to believe. That choice is constrained by the facts!

In many ways, I'd fucking love it if Giesecke were right in saying that these lockdowns are misguided and ultimately pointless. Speaking purely selfishly, that would point to a way out of this sooner rather than later as the 'tsunami' washes away into the distance. But I really don't think he is. It's reaching a point where I struggle to see how he can be.

 

[elbows]

That has peeped its head up tantalisingly a few times now. I also await more evidence with huge interest. If it does prove to be true, those betting on herd immunity will have rather lucked out, cos at no point have I heard from its advocates anything remotely like 'well, you know, two-thirds of us can't catch it anyway'.

Has it ever popped up with a detailed scientific explanation of any possibilities that point in that direction though? It hasnt for me, when I have brought it up its only because of my interest in what other coronaviruses did in humans when they first appeared, and because I like to sit and think about which things we have fed into models are actually assumptions rather than certainties or near certainties. Since some of the assumptions about population susceptibility look like they might be based on influenza-related assumptions, or at least have initially been based on that, I choose to keep an open mind on it, but it would be nice if I had seen some actual theories that put some theoretical meat on these bones.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Has it ever popped up with a detailed scientific explanation of any possibilities that point in that direction though? It hasnt for me, when I have brought it up its only because of my interest in what other coronaviruses did in humans when they first appeared, and because I like to sit and think about which things we have fed into models are actually assumptions rather than certainties or near certainties. Since some of the assumptions about population susceptibility look like they might be based on influenza-related assumptions, or at least have initially been based on that, I choose to keep an open mind on it, but it would be nice if I had seen some actual theories that put some theoretical meat on these bones.

I've not seen any theories as to the mechanism by which it might happen, merely speculations based on the way in which it doesn't appear to have spread much beyond about 20% of the population even in the most severely hit places, institutions or even households.

 

[The39thStep]

Yeah, I watched the Giesecke interview last week. Problem is, as Ferguson points out, the assumptions Giesecke's approach is based on look like they are not correct, meaning that Sweden is experiencing high numbers of deaths without even getting close to herd immunity.

There are certain things here that either one or the other is right about, and as elbows points out above, the serology testing thus far does not support Giesecke's pov. So it's not quite a case of whom you choose to believe. That choice is constrained by the facts!

In many ways, I'd fucking love it if Giesecke were right in saying that these lockdowns are misguided and ultimately pointless. Speaking purely selfishly, that would point to a way out of this sooner rather than later as the 'tsunami' washes away into the distance. But I really don't think he is. It's reaching a point where I struggle to see how he can be.

Thought it was interesting conundrum about living with the virus /living for the virus

 

[smokedout]

Has it ever popped up with a detailed scientific explanation of any possibilities that point in that direction though?

This isn't that but this study is interesting, and points to one possibility. If children are not infectious, or not very infectious, then they might as well be immune in terms of herd immunity, they might get it, some but not many might get very sick, but if they can't pass it on then it ends with them. Around 20% of the UK population is under 16, another 20% or so are 17-30. It's wild speculation, but possible that children and young people (or many children and young people) may not pass it on, which would mean something approaching a herd immunity effect with a much lower number of cases than is currently thought necessary.

Obviously that could be complete crap and it could just be that the 9 year old in that study wasn't infectious for some reason, but other children are. I do feel children are being left out of the picture a bit both in terms of research and testing though and I think we might learn something if more work was being done around that.