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mauvais said:
In terms of deaths, I'm not even sure it is way slower. The UK had its first deaths (two) on 5th March, then none/ones/twos for a bit, until the 14th March where it began to snowball. Germany had its first (two) on 10th March, then unpredictable numbers until recently. However its death rate yesterday (36) is roughly where the UK was five days ago (40). I think you should probably expect it to ultimately follow the same pattern, which is the guidance given by German authorities too.
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The difference is that they are now reporting recoveries. That's where the pattern diverges atm, as it indicates moving into a more mature phase. But yes, too early to be massively optimistic.
 
We may have a much better idea when the numbers for today come in.

I think from today or tomorrow it's going to be particularly grim news for the UK and USA, unfortunately. I suspect both are now in the exponential growth phase.
 
Poland increased lock down measures yesterday.

Go outside for necessities only. Shops/pharmacy/work if you have to (that's the same.

Difference now is out in groups of only 2. No gatherings of any kind at outside immediate family (it was never explicitly stated).

Walking outside of "exercise" is left ambiguous. But children's playgrounds are now explicitly stated as out of bounds as have most national parks and forests.

People have still been going to visit each other, clearly.

I'm miffed because I'm now 10 days without leaving the house and was going to reward myself on day 14 with a walk.

I'm now not sure if I'm allowed to do that.
 
Curiously the Dutch Institute of Health has just claimed that the country has managed to end the exponential growth phase. Not convinced yet that this isn't simply a statistical hiccup and might be a little premature.
 
littlebabyjesus said:
The difference is that they are now reporting recoveries. That's where the pattern diverges atm, as it indicates moving into a more mature phase. But yes, too early to be massively optimistic.
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I dont really understand what you are reading into the recovery numbers. Time passed so many of the cases got to the point where they can be classed as recovered. What does it actually indicate apart from that?
 
elbows said:
I dont really understand what you are reading into the recovery numbers. Time passed so many of the cases got to the point where they can be classed as recovered. What does it actually indicate apart from that?
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That that amount of time has passed with only that amount of deaths. It's a crucial part of working out where the peak is likely to come.
 
littlebabyjesus said:
That that amount of time has passed with only that amount of deaths. It's a crucial part of working out where the peak is likely to come.
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No, I dont see that. When I look at the recovered stats, the only remarkable thing I see is that they werent really reporting many of these at all, and then suddenly they reported several thousand of them. Probably a reporting issue, or a timing issue, or something to do with how they define recovered.

Most of the patterns I see in Germany are similar to elsewhere, with some differences based on their extensive testing regime. Also of note is the age of confirmed cases, likely another indicator that their testing regime was very different. A difference that I would certainly expect to have an effect on the stats for number of those cases recovered. As time goes on and Germany sees more severe and older cases in hospital, I would expect many of their stats to end up looking more like other countries.

Some info from a day or two including age ranges etc here:

 
littlebabyjesus said:
Thanks for that. Median age 47. I take it the median age here would be much higher?
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My assumption would be that our median age would be much lower during our initial testing regime (travel and contact tracing) than our subsequent testing regime that mostly picks up people ill enough to be hospitalised. And that Germany had a much larger travel and contact tracing regime, and that their epidemic is some days behind ours so they dont have as many severe hospitalised cases in their data yet. But obviously these are assumptions on my part.

Also if Germany has done a better job of shielding the elderly and vulnerable, of protecting against spread in care homes and hospitals and between hospital staff and patients, then large differences may result over time. Certainly since their epidemic timing seems a little different to ours, and they did a lot of draconian measures sooner than we did, it seems plausible that they got a head-start on intervention compared to us too, and this would be expected to reduce the overall burden, perhaps significantly. But these are some big if's, Germany may yet end up not looking much different to elsewhere.
 
SheilaNaGig said:
Apologies if this has already been posted.
www.theguardian.com

Satellite images show Iran has built mass graves amid coronavirus outbreak

Trenches in city of Qom confirm worst fears about extent of the epidemic and the government’s subsequent cover-up
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
Click to expand...

It has. I would not put particular faith in the official Iranian numbers, but these sorts of stories not that illuminating to me and are more a sign of the usual political framing of stories.

It would be one thing if they tried to estimate how many bodies it would take to fill the graves the satellite images show. But no, what we get instead is just emotive language about 'trying to create mass graves'. Well guess what, they wont be the only ones doing that in this pandemic :(

Questions relating to distorted deaths statistics and the true scale of things are really important. I will not defend the regime against such things, and I dont trust their numbers, but the words coming from those who oppose them doesnt give me the true picture either, especially not when its the western press.
 
I mean, I invite people to consider what sort of language would be used if pictures of lots of freshly dug grave trenches in the UK were obtained. In a cemetery. In neat rows, not a hidden pit.
 
I got my HMG text today, stay at home - except when …

About that Schwarzenegger post above. Is it really right that in the supposedly richest country on the planet health workers have to rely on crowd funding to get decent PPC in time of crisis?
 
weltweit said:
I got my HMG text today, stay at home - except when …

About that Schwarzenegger post above. Is it really right that in the supposedly richest country on the planet health workers have to rely on crowd funding to get decent PPC in time of crisis?
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How do you think it got to be the richest country in the world? America, the epitome of 'Fuck you, Jack, I'm in the lifeboat'
 
Spain now asking for help with equipment from other EU countries, when Italy asked, the rest of the EU went silence, only China sent supplies & experts.
 
cupid_stunt said:
Spain now asking for help with equipment from other EU countries, when Italy asked, the rest of the EU went silence, only China sent supplies & experts.
Click to expand...

Anyone got any ideas/wild speculation as to how this will play out? Further break up of EU? Rising anti-Chinese racism on mainland Europe?
 
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