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Germany is having the same sorts of issues as the UK in terms of people going out as if nothing had happened.


In a dramatic appeal, Merkel urged everyone to play a part in slowing down a virus that has raced across the globe and triggered unprecedented peace-time lockdowns.

"The situation is serious. Take it seriously. Not since German reunification, no, not since the Second World War has our country faced a challenge that depends so much on our collective solidarity," she said.
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The country has however stopped short of ordering people to stay home, in contrast with the tougher restrictions introduced in France, Belgium, Italy and Spain.

But Germans have continued to go outside to enjoy the spring sunshine and socialise, highlighting the authorities' struggle to hammer home the message that people must avoid social contacts.
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Preprint on development of a serological assay (unrefereed).

www.medrxiv.org

A serological assay to detect SARS-CoV-2 seroconversion in humans

Introduction SARS-Cov-2 (severe acute respiratory disease coronavirus 2), which causes Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID19) was first detected in China in late 2019 and has since then caused a global pandemic. While molecular assays to directly detect the viral genetic material are available for...
www.medrxiv.org www.medrxiv.org
 
sunnysidedown said:
Preprint on development of a serological assay (unrefereed).

www.medrxiv.org

A serological assay to detect SARS-CoV-2 seroconversion in humans

Introduction SARS-Cov-2 (severe acute respiratory disease coronavirus 2), which causes Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID19) was first detected in China in late 2019 and has since then caused a global pandemic. While molecular assays to directly detect the viral genetic material are available for...
www.medrxiv.org www.medrxiv.org
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Good. I was pleased to see these sorts of tests getting mentioned in todays UK press conference as well (mostly referred to there as antibody tests).
 
little_legs said:
Maybe it's because to date Germany has had 26 deaths, looking at Germany's numbers and seeing what a well-funded healthcare system gets you is depressing.
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Yes their intensive care capacity puts ours to shame many times over.

However its too soon to cheer their numbers, they might just be days behind other countries. Well to be honest what I'm expecting to see from their number of deaths is that they will show the tragic increases seen elsewhere, but perhaps not at the same pace. And there could be a point at which their quantity of deaths really starts to diverge from ours, wont resemble 'ours but lagging behind a few days' any more. If that happens then it might very well be a sign of what proportion of the deaths in some other EU countries and the UK is down to those countries running out of intensive care capacity (including locally) as opposed to patients that couldnt be saved even if the facilities were there. It is more than plausible that Italy and later Spain already reached that phase in the worst affected areas.
 
elbows said:
Yes their intensive care capacity puts ours to shame many times over.

However its too soon to cheer their numbers, they might just be days behind other countries. Well to be honest what I'm expecting to see from their number of deaths is that they will show the tragic increases seen elsewhere, but perhaps not at the same pace. And there could be a point at which their quantity of deaths really starts to diverge from ours, wont resemble 'ours but lagging behind a few days' any more. If that happens then it might very well be a sign of what proportion of the deaths in some other EU countries and the UK is down to those countries running out of intensive care capacity (including locally) as opposed to patients that couldnt be saved even if the facilities were there. It is more than plausible that Italy and later Spain already reached that phase in the worst affected areas.
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Agreed. You make good points.
 
sunnysidedown said:
Preprint on development of a serological assay (unrefereed).

www.medrxiv.org

A serological assay to detect SARS-CoV-2 seroconversion in humans

Introduction SARS-Cov-2 (severe acute respiratory disease coronavirus 2), which causes Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID19) was first detected in China in late 2019 and has since then caused a global pandemic. While molecular assays to directly detect the viral genetic material are available for...
www.medrxiv.org www.medrxiv.org
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This is very good news - nice ELISA test is just what we need. Fingers crossed it’s replicable. This is standard well understood technology so if it works should be easy to roll out fast and wide.

My personal reaction to this news only goes to indicate to myself how desperate for any kind of positive news I have been.
 
Italy
elbows said:
Yes their intensive care capacity puts ours to shame many times over.

However its too soon to cheer their numbers, they might just be days behind other countries. Well to be honest what I'm expecting to see from their number of deaths is that they will show the tragic increases seen elsewhere, but perhaps not at the same pace. And there could be a point at which their quantity of deaths really starts to diverge from ours, wont resemble 'ours but lagging behind a few days' any more. If that happens then it might very well be a sign of what proportion of the deaths in some other EU countries and the UK is down to those countries running out of intensive care capacity (including locally) as opposed to patients that couldnt be saved even if the facilities were there. It is more than plausible that Italy and later Spain already reached that phase in the worst affected areas.
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Elbows, could I ask you how you arrived at the conclusion that Italy may have reached the peak phase? This is not a dig at you, and I've seen this elsewhere, I just want some more information.

I ask because a friend from the north of Italy tells that their state news broadcaster is telling them that the peak is expected to be reached on March 25th.

With Italy the north and south divide is adding another layer to the problem. Like the same friend tells that when the outbreak hit the north it caught a lot of Italians from the south working in the wealthy north. And because the government dragged its feet, many of the southerns continued working in the north unaware that the bastard virus was spreading from people who appeared to be healthy/not showing any signs of being sick. Then, when the government started locking down areas in the north, all the southerners went back home, where the healthcare infrastructure doesn't even come close to the north, and effectively brought the virus to the south. North and South Italy might as well be two entirely separate countries in terms of wealth, which is probably factoring in Italy's fatality rate not slowing down.
 
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little_legs said:
Elbows, could I ask you how you arrived at the conclusion that Italy may have reached the peak phase? This is a dig at you, and I've seen this elsewhere, I just want some more information.
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I didnt say anything about them reaching peak phase. I suggested that their intensive care availability has not kept up with demand, and that we have to take into account what a poor effect on case fatality rate that can have. Countries could reach that point well before the peak of their epidemics.

I've put no thought at all into when I would expect any country to peak. I dont have the models, or the data about what their lockdowns are hoped to achieve, and are actually achieving in terms of infection rates. And there are a whole raft of statistics that I cannot take at face value right now because of ongoing unknowns about how many milder cases are not being tested in various countries.

But I do know that we probably need to think more locally when we consider epidemic timing. The first town or city in Italy to start seeing lots of cases, serious cases and deaths may be further ahead than even the town next door, and so things should also improve there sooner. I think I saw one article where they were hopeful their town was at or nearly at or past the peak, but I dont remember where in Italy that was.
 
elbows said:
I didnt say anything about them reaching peak phase. I suggested that their intensive care availability has not kept up with demand, and that we have to take into account what a poor effect on case fatality rate that can have. Countries could reach that point well before the peak of their epidemics.

I've put no thought at all into when I would expect any country to peak. I dont have the models, or the data about what their lockdowns are hoped to achieve, and are actually achieving in terms of infection rates. And there are a whole raft of statistics that I cannot take at face value right now because of ongoing unknowns about how many milder cases are not being tested in various countries.

But I do know that we probably need to think more locally when we consider epidemic timing. The first town or city in Italy to start seeing lots of cases, serious cases and deaths may be further ahead than even the town next door. I think I saw one article where they were hopeful of being at or nearly at or past the peak, but I dont remember where in Italy that was.
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Oh dear, I am being an idiot then. I walked right into it didn't I, my apologies.
 
little_legs said:
Italy
North and South Italy might as well be two entirely separate countries in terms of wealth, which is probably factoring in Italy's fatality rate not slowing down.
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the vast majority of the deaths are in the richest region of the country, Lombardy. so this doesn't add up at all. the North also has the worst air pollution in Europe, which I think is a much bigger factor in the extremely high mortality rate in northern Italy compared to other regions and countries.
 
Flavour said:
the vast majority of the deaths are in the richest region of the country, Lombardy. so this doesn't add up at all. the North also has the worst air pollution in Europe, which I think is a much bigger factor in the extremely high mortality rate in northern Italy compared to other regions and countries.
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Sure, I get that. The friend that I mentioned says that the deaths are increasing in the South as well, and she is afraid that as a country they haven't seen the worst yet.
 
little_legs said:
Sure, I get that. The friend that I mentioned says that the deaths are increasing in the South as well, and she is afraid that as a country they haven't seen the worst yet.
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The fear would be based on the idea that Southern Italy is just further behind the epidemic than the north, and that a similar fate awaits them, except with even less healthcare capacity.

The main hope that this fear will not be fully realised would be that if they were further behind, then the lockdown and other behavioural changes occurred earlier on in their epidemic curve, with a bigger impact on the resulting number of cases.
 
I cant really tell how many people really get this aspect at the moment.

At a World Health Organization briefing Wednesday, health officials also stressed that cases of severe illness were not restricted to older people.

“The idea that this is a disease that causes death in older people, we need to be very, very careful with,” said Mike Ryan, the head of the WHO’s emergency program, who noted that almost 20% of deaths in South Korea were in people younger than 60. “Physicians again in Italy will attest to this, and in Korea. This isn’t just a disease of the elderly. There is no question that younger, healthier people experience an overall less serious disease. But a significant number of otherwise healthy adults can develop a more severe form of the disease.”
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www.statnews.com

U.S. official says data show severe coronavirus infections among millennials, not just older Americans

A top health official on the White House’s coronavirus task force warned that young people could suffer severe health risks from Covid-19, the disease caused by the virus.
www.statnews.com www.statnews.com

Likely part of the reason they are highlighting this in the USA is trouble getting those age groups to take things seriously, but its all very real anyway. Low percentages in regards younger people seem to have been poorly understood by some.

I'm not sure how well prepared people are for what is to come in healthcare settings either.

www.reuters.com

UPDATE 1-WHO calls for ramping up of medical supplies to fight coronavirus

The World Health Organization called on Wednesday for "order and discipline" in the market for health equipment needed to fight the coronavirus pandemic and said it was in discussions with China and others to ramp up supplies.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com

More than 200,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported the world over, although death rates have varied across countries and have been particularly high in Italy where 475 new deaths over 24 hours were reported on Wednesday.

Ryan said that the difference was likely caused by the “astonishing” number of cases within the clinical system and well as the high number of elderly people in Italy.

“When patient numbers begin to overwhelm it becomes a simple factor of your ability to provide adequate care,” he said, praising the courage and bravery of the healthcare workers treating over 1,200 patients in intensive care.

“It’s an astonishing number. The fact they are saving so many is a miracle in itself,” he said.
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It'll just keep coming round won't it? Stave the deaths avelanche off until a vaccine may or may not be rolled out. Can't see it though.
 
Humberto said:
It'll just keep coming round won't it? Stave the deaths avelanche off until a vaccine may or may not be rolled out. Can't see it though.
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I'll wait and see what happens in all sorts of places in the next few months before attempting to seriously think about what will happen later. But I expect there to be a lot of pressure to come up with medical interventions.
 
Much as I detest everything Trump says, he raises a pertinent question when he says it's a Chinese virus. Look at their wet markets: Why Do New Disease Outbreaks Always Seem to Start in China? | RealClearScience And look at how the cover-up spread the virus unnecessarily Subscribe to read | Financial Times (very soft paywall, just click to read) Looks like we can expect more new viruses until the Chinese stop eating bats How China’s “Bat Woman” Hunted Down Viruses from SARS to the New Coro.navirus

Alternatively, if we don't want to single out the Chinese we could blame all meat-eaters. Or humans generally, for overcrowding the planet, hence living too close to livestock.

Edit: I've just read the Bat Woman's conclusion:"The novel 2019 coronavirus is nature punishing the human race for keeping uncivilized living habits."
 
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