The39thStep
Urban critical thinker
Spanish government takes control over all private hospitals and gives it to regional health ministers.
Coronavirus - worldwide breaking news, discussion, stats, updates and more
- Thread starter weltweit
- Start date
sihhi
Tyranny, like hell, is not easily conquered
Another interesting detail is a Princess Diamond evacuee still testing positive after 37 days and after mild symptoms have long gone. I am not convinced the government's 'stay at home for 7 days' is enough to cut it.
“In Canada, there was one example of a super-spreader who simply walked through an emergency room that was packed, fairly packed with individuals, & infected 19 people in the less than 15 seconds they were in the emergency room as they walked through it”
“In Canada, there was one example of a super-spreader who simply walked through an emergency room that was packed, fairly packed with individuals, & infected 19 people in the less than 15 seconds they were in the emergency room as they walked through it”
2hats
Dust.
Those two statements are not necessarily related. The 'super spreader' likely was in the infectious stage. It's not yet clear if people with detectable virus N days later are shedding viable virions. It's also not clear what the exact nature of those tests are - ie what exactly does "test postive" mean here?
The stay at home for 7 days is the current limit of scientific understanding (not just government advice). It may change as we learn more. Really this is at least half of what 'flattening the curve' is about. It buys us time to do more science and so better understand how to attack this more effectively.
Reports that people in China are testing positive again after recovering and being released from hospital...
'Herd immunity'?
What does it mean rutita?
Do you think it means asymptomatic viral replication persists for a while after symptomatic recovery?
Things like that matter. We don't know. We don't know if this means symptomatic reinfection, cross reactivity with other tests, false positives due to contamination etc. People need to be responsible and caveat these discussions with our lack of knowledge (not that you aren't) and not jump on news to "prove" something. It is all very complex and emergent
sihhi
Tyranny, like hell, is not easily conquered
Why shouldn't the precautionary principle be applied?
Other countries have different standards China all regions now have 14 days after recovery after hospital discharge quarantines.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Trump seems happy about this:
apple.news
He’s also given a press conference after speaking to major food retailers with the message for consumers to stop over buying goods as they won’t be running out or closing as they are naturally essential.
Trump applauds Fed's move to slash interest rates — CNBC
"It makes me very happy," Trump said Sunday evening. "I think that people in the markets should be very thrilled."
He’s also given a press conference after speaking to major food retailers with the message for consumers to stop over buying goods as they won’t be running out or closing as they are naturally essential.
Artaxerxes
Look out, he's got a gnu!
If the DFS sale ends as well I’m sorry but we are all going to die.
prunus
Tick tock.
Queremos ir para casa We want to go home
This is a holy hell moment:
It turns it out this will be much worse than Spanish Flu.
UK coronavirus crisis 'to last until spring 2021 and could see 7.9m hospitalised'
Exclusive: Public Health England document seen by Guardian says four in five ‘expected’ to contract viruswww.theguardian.com
A senior NHS figure involved in preparing for the growing “surge” in patients whose lives are being put at risk by Covid-19 said an 80% infection rate could lead to more than half a million people dying. If the mortality rate turns out to be the 1% many experts are using as their working assumption then that would mean 531,100 deaths.
Wuhan mortality rate was above 4%, I am not sure 1% is achievable if the NHS is overpowered.
These are the numbers certainly I and many other people have been playing with for some time - I find it reassuring (within context*) that they are taking it seriously, and planning for it (again within context) rather than assuming that current measures will success to prevent it. Hopefully it will lead to a Hubei-style lockdown and containment effort, but anything is better than heading into it willfully blind.
* the context of the worse disaster sustained by this country since the Black Death (not hyperbole).
Limejuice
Well-Known Member
sihhi
Tyranny, like hell, is not easily conquered
Zhong Nanshan said these cases needed further research but there were a handful of patients under strict observation at the Japan-China Friendship Hospital, Beijing, where 'viral loads' dropped then rose then dropped again then rose then dropped again, undulating, as they recovered.
More bad news from Italy, 47 year old paramedic dead.
More bad news from Italy, 47 year old paramedic dead.
gosub
~#
Pubs on the otherside of the border that isn't are going to get busy
sihhi
Tyranny, like hell, is not easily conquered
Planning for it - if there's was planning for it we wouldn't be following Italy's path so eagerly.
It needed speed, the government gave nothing.
Hubei had the rest of China's health system to help it. Britain has far, far less.
TopCat
Putin fanboy
Breaking news was estimation by UK Govt that 80% of UK population will be infected.
The morbidity rate was originally estimated at 1-2 %
The experience of Italy however has showed that 3.4 to 3.7% is the true known morbidity rate, possibly an underestimate as people die from other issues and they wont be included.
But going with the morbidity spread in the UK.
What's the population in the UK? Sixty million?
Let me check the population then do the maths. Its ugly.
Feel free to beat me with the calculation.
The morbidity rate was originally estimated at 1-2 %
The experience of Italy however has showed that 3.4 to 3.7% is the true known morbidity rate, possibly an underestimate as people die from other issues and they wont be included.
But going with the morbidity spread in the UK.
What's the population in the UK? Sixty million?
Let me check the population then do the maths. Its ugly.
Feel free to beat me with the calculation.
Fez909
toilet expert
Each 1% is half a million deaths.
TopCat
Putin fanboy
So 60,000,080 current population.
80% of the above = 75,000,180
Italian level of death 3.4%
Predicted deaths in the UK 2,55006
With the complete ineptness shown by our Govt we will have to stick together.
Solidarity is everything now.
We will look back and remark on who did what.
My sums are shit. Please redo them.
80% of the above = 75,000,180
Italian level of death 3.4%
Predicted deaths in the UK 2,55006
With the complete ineptness shown by our Govt we will have to stick together.
Solidarity is everything now.
We will look back and remark on who did what.
My sums are shit. Please redo them.
sihhi
Tyranny, like hell, is not easily conquered
I still don't get why this government is such an outlier.
Lebanon has gone into a heavier lockdown until April - all non-essential shops and workplaces closed.
Saudi Arabia too the lockdown in place in one region has extended to the whole country. All shops, public gathering places, mosques closed.
Argentina has stopped all international flights for the next two weeks.
Oman has blocked all non-Omanis from entering from tomorrow.
The examples are all too many to mention are these public health advisers all getting it wrong?
Lebanon has gone into a heavier lockdown until April - all non-essential shops and workplaces closed.
Saudi Arabia too the lockdown in place in one region has extended to the whole country. All shops, public gathering places, mosques closed.
Argentina has stopped all international flights for the next two weeks.
Oman has blocked all non-Omanis from entering from tomorrow.
The examples are all too many to mention are these public health advisers all getting it wrong?
Fez909
toilet expert
One thing to note, is that although Italy is absolutely fucked right now, it's still got a long way to go before 'the peak'. They have only had 0.04% of the population sick so far.80% of 60 million is 48 million, say 2% of that is 1 million
They have put measures in place which should start to slow things down soon, but if they go to 80% like we're predicted to...expect that fatality rate to rise even further
Ax^
Silly Rabbit
they planning on avoid a second wave in the winter
if you let it burn out in the first wave you've not got to wait for the second
I suspect a certain Weirdo in the UK goverment has been tasked with the response
as has been post on here they framing their response around how the spanish flu played out
saying that the Spanish flu was a very different beast
I suspect it trying not the put to much pressure on economy with a lock down
or more cynically not damage the Brexit promise Boris has made before the end of the year
if you let it burn out in the first wave you've not got to wait for the second
I suspect a certain Weirdo in the UK goverment has been tasked with the response
as has been post on here they framing their response around how the spanish flu played out
saying that the Spanish flu was a very different beast
I suspect it trying not the put to much pressure on economy with a lock down
or more cynically not damage the Brexit promise Boris has made before the end of the year
TopCat
Putin fanboy
But 2% is underestimate. I have seem 3.4 to 3.7% in Italy. We are two weeks behind.80% of 60 million is 48 million, say 2% of that is 1 million
TopCat
Putin fanboy
1.8 deaths million changes the uk forever.
Especially we could have ten million people disabled by pnemonia forever.
Ax^
Silly Rabbit
it should not kill 8 million its not targeting enough groups to cover that
even the spanish flu which attacked people with healthy immunes systems with a cytokine storm
only killed 50 millions people world wide
SheilaNaGig
Break requested
The other thing to consider here of course is that as things fall apart there will also be collateral deaths as people can't get their meds, treatment, necessary intervention, emergency health care.
Deaths resulting from the virus is not the only issue. Death from any cause will probably go up too.
Deaths resulting from the virus is not the only issue. Death from any cause will probably go up too.
BCBlues
Lend us a Twenner
I was just thinking similar. How many people with depression, stress and anxiety will this push over the edge? Worrying Times.
