Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion
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elbows
Well-Known Member
Latest ONS estimates, which as usual reflect the estimated situation 1+ week ago:
There are some signs of the rate of increase slowing in some of those figures, but as usual I'm not keen to make firm peak timing or size predictions.
Covid infections hit 2.7 million in UK
The latest figures show an estimated one in 25 people has the virus.
www.bbc.co.uk
There are some signs of the rate of increase slowing in some of those figures, but as usual I'm not keen to make firm peak timing or size predictions.
2hats
Dust.
(Repost from the mutations thread):
The MRC Biostatistics Unit (Cambridge) suggests that, for England, the current wave will peak in the week 17th-23rd July.
National Rt estimated to be 1.26 (ie still growing), though in the NE and London it is now estimated to be <1 (ie declining).
85% of the population are estimated to have been infected at some point and 21% suffered reinfections.
The MRC Biostatistics Unit (Cambridge) suggests that, for England, the current wave will peak in the week 17th-23rd July.
National Rt estimated to be 1.26 (ie still growing), though in the NE and London it is now estimated to be <1 (ie declining).
85% of the population are estimated to have been infected at some point and 21% suffered reinfections.
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teuchter
je suis teuchter
The January and April peaks in numbers of infections are reflected in spikes in deaths. Obviously we have to wait and see what happens with this current peak.
But it's notable that while numbers of infections pre- the January peak & post the April peak were quite similar, the numbers of deaths, measured at the same points in time, dropped considerably.
But it's notable that while numbers of infections pre- the January peak & post the April peak were quite similar, the numbers of deaths, measured at the same points in time, dropped considerably.
elbows
Well-Known Member
You arent quite comparing like for like there, since that particular ZOE chart shows estimated number of people with symptoms, rather than new daily infections. And the wider peak in daily new infection estimates would indeed push up the peak in number of people with symptoms.
miss direct
misfungled
I made sure I logged my recent positive test on the NHS website and would encourage others to do so.
elbows
Well-Known Member
When comparing the three omicron peaks and their associated deaths, need to factor in a point I made throughout the pandemic so far:
Availability of testing and attitudes towards the disease have an effect not just on the old 'deaths within 28 days of a positive test' but also death certificate deaths. I wish it were not so, but it is, and at this stage of the pandemic I'd expect to see this show up quite clearly. I'd expect it to have had a little influence on the 2nd peaks figures, and an even bigger influence this time. However it likely wont be possible for me to judge the extent to which this phenomenon causes a very different death peak this time, as opposed to the difference in figures being due to a very real drop in deaths.
It was much easier for me to make this point in relation to the very first pandemic wave, because we knew pretty well where we stood with lack of tests, and there were so many deaths that we could use overall excess deaths from all causes to get a different sort of view of the likely true picture.
And I dont want to make this point in an over the top and unfair way this time. I dont want to downplay any very real drop in the number of covid deaths in the current wave. But I do still want to highlight the fact that availability of test results and establishment attitudes towards the virus have an inevitable effect on what causes end up on some death certificates. Death certificate stuff is far from a precise science, its heavily influenced by how those who are filling in the death certificates think about a disease at that moment.
Having said that, in terms of very real differences in actual numbers of deaths in reality, I would expect the spring booster campaign to have made a real difference, especially given the age group it targeted. And this is another reason I'll have to go easy if attempting to use the current waves death data to make a point about the unreliability of death certificate figures.
teuchter
je suis teuchter
I don't really see much point in doing so. So few people are doing this now that any data generated from it is fairly meaningless. Much better to rely on infection surveys based on random sampling of the population now.
elbows
Well-Known Member
By the way when seeking to see this waves trend in deaths, and compare different cources to the death certificate figures, we can resort to an old form of death data that I hadnt really felt the need to look at for a long time, hospital ones.
NHS England hospital death figures are still published. Only once a week since the start of July (Thursdays), but still here:
www.england.nhs.uk
If people want to use the UK dashboard 28 day test death figures, then there are several things to note. Not only is the dashboard now only updated once a week (Wednesdays), but various nations of the UK completely stopped 28 day test death figures, so you have to drill down to England rather than look at the UK graph, since the UK graph isnt going to update at all these days.
What both of these sources show is that a rise in deaths due to the current wave can be seen, but the figures are so far very low compared to all previous waves, and the rise modest.
NHS England hospital death figures are still published. Only once a week since the start of July (Thursdays), but still here:
Statistics » (Discontinued) COVID-19 Deaths
This section contains information on deaths of patients who have died in hospitals in England and had either tested positive for COVID-19 or where COVID-19 was mentioned on the death certificate. All deaths are recorded against the date of death rather than the date the deaths were announced. At...
If people want to use the UK dashboard 28 day test death figures, then there are several things to note. Not only is the dashboard now only updated once a week (Wednesdays), but various nations of the UK completely stopped 28 day test death figures, so you have to drill down to England rather than look at the UK graph, since the UK graph isnt going to update at all these days.
What both of these sources show is that a rise in deaths due to the current wave can be seen, but the figures are so far very low compared to all previous waves, and the rise modest.
teuchter
je suis teuchter
Fair enough. But what's the evidence that this is happening, or how significant an effect it's having?
elbows
Well-Known Member
I already explained that it will be very hard to determine the extent to which that pehnomenon is distorting the picture. This is one of the reasons that actually having a decent, comprehensive test system is desirable in the first place. If we had a perfect way to work round the limitations of death certificate figures then this issue wouldnt matter so much in the first place.
And so I have no expectation of being able to give peoples a sense of scale of the distortion. But I think its completely fair to still point out that the phenomenon exists. The phenomenon is after all a big reason why even the establishment bothers to track various forms of excess mortality data, in an attempt to get another view of situations which can somewhat bypass these limitations. So I should not have to prove that the phenomenon is well known (though not shouted about) and is already acknowledged implicitly by the establishment via other forms of data they pay attention to. However excess deaths tend only to be able to give a good view when the numbers involved are reasonably large, and when other factors influencing overall death rates can be estimated and factored out.
I'll still try to take a multi-angled view of this wave though. We can use various other forms of data to look for trends in those other forms of data, and raise a red flag if those trends dont show up in the same way in the death certificate death data. We can use all the other forms of death data, as well as other hospital data such as intensive care data, to attempt this. We can also resort to looking out for anecdotes (such as 'my relative died in a covid outbreak but it wasnt even mentioned on the death certificate'), which can offer clues but not good guides as to the true scale of any issues.
In a way I am very pleased that we've reached the stage of the pandemic where it is difficult to unpick all of the factors, where it is not possible to discuss the death certificate limitations to your satisfaction. Because it means there are all sorts of very real factors at play that are affecting the actual number of deaths at the same time, eg vaccines and treatments. And so I am in no way insinuating that a massive amount of death is being swept under the carpet. What I am doing is being clear that this year, due to changes in attitudes and testing, makes it harder to make straightforward comparisons to the data from the current wave compared to previous waves. And that the change has been gradual but is now likely significant, but that there are no perfect ways to adjust the data to allow for for these changes. And that such an evolved picture and attitudes have influence well beyond the obvious stuff that directly involves positive tests, it influences death certificates too.
teuchter
je suis teuchter
Fair enough, that seems reasonable to me.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Since deaths have come up, I may as well highlight a little bit of all cause death registrations per week ONS data for England & Wales, even though it might have been better to wait until tomorrow when another weeks worth of data will be available.
Since this is death registrations rather than instances, some of the spikes and troughs are caused by registration delays for reasons such as bank holidays. Even so we can see a pattern - this year we were initially doing better than the previous year and the 5 year average, and then by March that was no longer the case, and still isnt the case.
For now I will leave it to someone else to observe any gap between the number of deaths being reported as due to covid, and the extent to which total deaths per week are exceeding the norm. Any formal attempt to use such a gap to determine extent of possible undercounting of covid deaths at the moment will be complicated by factors including the sorry state of the ambulance & hospital service at the moment, and any picture that may exist in regards other diseases.
Data is from Deaths registered weekly in England and Wales, provisional - Office for National Statistics
Since this is death registrations rather than instances, some of the spikes and troughs are caused by registration delays for reasons such as bank holidays. Even so we can see a pattern - this year we were initially doing better than the previous year and the 5 year average, and then by March that was no longer the case, and still isnt the case.
For now I will leave it to someone else to observe any gap between the number of deaths being reported as due to covid, and the extent to which total deaths per week are exceeding the norm. Any formal attempt to use such a gap to determine extent of possible undercounting of covid deaths at the moment will be complicated by factors including the sorry state of the ambulance & hospital service at the moment, and any picture that may exist in regards other diseases.
Data is from Deaths registered weekly in England and Wales, provisional - Office for National Statistics
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miss direct
misfungled
Maybe, but I wanted to do so.
Oh, I thought it was only healthcare workers that could log their results now, so I didn't bother.
miss direct
misfungled
miss direct
misfungled
You can just follow the instructions from the test. I don't have the app anymore but did it on the website.
No idea where the instructions went tbh. I've done so many over the last few years that I never bother to look at them!
miss direct
misfungled
Me too, but each new pack seems to be slightly different. This latest one had me leaving the swab in the liquid for a minute, which I'd never done before.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Grim situation on the ambulance/hospitals front:
I dont think you ca read the article without a subscription but here is a link anyway so that my source is clear. I didnt get a chance to look for other media covering this story.
www.hsj.co.uk
I dont think you ca read the article without a subscription but here is a link anyway so that my source is clear. I didnt get a chance to look for other media covering this story.
24 hour ambulance handover on ‘worst night ever’
All ambulance services are now understood to be on the highest level of alert due to 'extreme pressures' caused by the hot weather and covid absences among staff.
www.hsj.co.uk
SpookyFrank
A cheap source of teeth for aquarium gravel
Anyone can log their results. If you log a positive test, you'll get a text to tell you've got covid. Then you'll get an email to tell you you've got covid. Then you'll get another email telling you how to log your result on the NHS covid app, so that it can also tell you that you have covid.
SpookyFrank
A cheap source of teeth for aquarium gravel
Grim situation on the ambulance/hospitals front:
I dont think you ca read the article without a subscription but here is a link anyway so that my source is clear. I didnt get a chance to look for other media covering this story.
24 hour ambulance handover on ‘worst night ever’
All ambulance services are now understood to be on the highest level of alert due to 'extreme pressures' caused by the hot weather and covid absences among staff.
Our local hospital is on black alert again, which means they're asking any and all staff anywhere to come in for any shift they can possibly do.
This a fortnight before the grockles start to show up in their tens of thousands.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Its ok, the Queen gave the NHS the George Cross so everything is great, nothing to see here.
Queen awards NHS with George Cross medal
The vaccine rollout had been "amazing", said the Queen, at a ceremony at Windsor Castle.
www.bbc.co.uk
Swerved that particular bollock then!
Chz
Stark Raving Sane
The Little One has it now. Probably should have tested him before the school musical, but it was only on the way home when he talked about how many of his friends weren't there due to covid that we twigged he'd been coughing a bit. Mercifully not infected either of us, though.
LDC
On est tous des pangolins
Grim situation on the ambulance/hospitals front:
I dont think you ca read the article without a subscription but here is a link anyway so that my source is clear. I didnt get a chance to look for other media covering this story.
24 hour ambulance handover on ‘worst night ever’
All ambulance services are now understood to be on the highest level of alert due to 'extreme pressures' caused by the hot weather and covid absences among staff.
No surprise, yesterday was a total and utter fucking disaster in A&E. We had people there over 24 hours waiting for a ward bed, queues out of the door, people kicking off at us, etc. A huge amount of people in for intentional overdoses for some reason as well.
Puddy_Tat
naturally fluffy
(Masks re-introduced in our local Hospital too!) 
There's a new and big local outbreak in the Swansea area ..... both my immediate boss and top boss have currently got it and are absent.
From an immature POV, that might sound great (
).
But various things to do with peoples' (everyone's!) leave/CS flexitime/regaining time for Medical/Hospital appointments (very! relevant to my situation right now!
: ), can't be sorted until they're back.
Which will be no earlier than next Monday (18/7), apparantly!
There's a new and big local outbreak in the Swansea area ..... both my immediate boss and top boss have currently got it and are absent.
From an immature POV, that might sound great (
).But various things to do with peoples' (everyone's!) leave/CS flexitime/regaining time for Medical/Hospital appointments (very! relevant to my situation right now!
: ), can't be sorted until they're back. Which will be no earlier than next Monday (18/7), apparantly!
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