Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion
- Thread starter Sasaferrato
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blameless77
Well-Known Member
Interesting that Omicron seems to have a more rapid cycle of infection and recovery than Delta. Could this be partly driving the reduction in isolation times?
blameless77
Well-Known Member
elbows
Well-Known Member
It could be used to attempt to justify the changes at some point, but its not whats been driving them so far. Desperation in terms of disruption, staff shortages etc is what has provided the impetus so far. They can dress that up in science if they feel the need to, but a high degree of scientific certainty takes longer to establish than has been available for Omicron so far.
existentialist
Tired and unemotional
Marvellous.
StoneRoad
heckling from the back!
aye
#world-beating [again]
elbows
Well-Known Member
This article may contain various things that are of some interest:
www.theguardian.com
However I consider the way it frames the use of lateral flow tests to be quite misleading. It makes it sound like their use was in response to Omicron - it was ramped up then, to the extent that some of the testing figures pretty much doubled, but very large quantities of lateral flow tests were being used in England from March 2021 onwards.
The graph of rapid lateral flow tests conducted in England, which is the 4th one down on the following dashboard page, shows what I'm talking about:
‘Living with Covid’ does not have to mean ditching all protective measures
Analysis: reports and denials that free LFTs will be axed highlight gulf in opinions on how to move forward
However I consider the way it frames the use of lateral flow tests to be quite misleading. It makes it sound like their use was in response to Omicron - it was ramped up then, to the extent that some of the testing figures pretty much doubled, but very large quantities of lateral flow tests were being used in England from March 2021 onwards.
The graph of rapid lateral flow tests conducted in England, which is the 4th one down on the following dashboard page, shows what I'm talking about:
David Clapson
Well-Known Member
Dr Steve James being given plenty of stick by other medics in the i NHS staff react with fury over 'deluded' doctor who questioned Sajid Javid over vaccine mandate
Doctor Carrot
Marxist Henchman
The press are particularly awful for this wave. Today it's all upbeat NHS bosses and how the UK can be pioneers for living with covid. I sometimes feel like I inhabit another dimension. Must be unbelievably frustrating for scientists trying counter this crap with the reality of the situation.
_Russ_
Never not Knowingly Misunderstood
Interesting development on Vaccine administration, right here in Swansea 
Covid: Swansea Uni develops 'world's first' vaccine smart patch
Covid: Swansea Uni develops 'world's first' vaccine smart patch
elbows
Well-Known Member
I was ready for this because they were universally pretty bad after the peaks of previous waves too. The got lockdown fatigue first, want to look ahead, get bored of reporting the same old cautious stories and tales of disaster at specific hospitals. And they can always find some professionals to quote who have stupid expectations of the future. And the ones who have a dodgy right-wing agenda are obviously even worse, soiling themselves at the start of waves too.
LDC
On est tous des pangolins
What exactly are you commenting on, or was it another one line wonder spewing out of your head with no context?
My friend has had a first dose and is health anxious, and that's what's stopping her having the other doses, so really more hesitant than outright not wanting it, but I'll tell her you know better than her and understand all the reasons why millions of people haven't had any or all of the doses.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
The authorities don't know I've got the fecking rona & I bet there's many out there who are also not troubling/able to access the official testing.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
How would that be known?
elbows
Well-Known Member
Its not a constant, its expected to be worse when the testing system is under much greater strain, as are thing such as results taking longer to be reported.
Things like the ONS infection survey provide a better guide, but thats laggy so by the time we hear about its results, the trends are often already clear in other data despite test system limitations.
Even the hospital data is not completely immune to test system limitations, in that case the throughput of testing within the hospitals. However I'd expect the hospital figures to still be a pretty reasonable guide, and there are various peak indicators in those too. That shows up in the admissions data already, although it looks like we arent yet at a point where this filters through into number of people with covid in hospital beds, since those figures are still rising. But not dramatically for England like they were previously.
Things like the ONS infection survey provide a better guide, but thats laggy so by the time we hear about its results, the trends are often already clear in other data despite test system limitations.
Even the hospital data is not completely immune to test system limitations, in that case the throughput of testing within the hospitals. However I'd expect the hospital figures to still be a pretty reasonable guide, and there are various peak indicators in those too. That shows up in the admissions data already, although it looks like we arent yet at a point where this filters through into number of people with covid in hospital beds, since those figures are still rising. But not dramatically for England like they were previously.
elbows
Well-Known Member
I see from th BBC live updates page that the sort of vaccine hospitalisation stats I'm always going on about, and the wrong impression that some end up with, came up:
90% isnt a good fit with ICU realities either, unless you zoom in in a particular way like Johnson did a while ago, and even that might of been quite far wide of the mark, hard to tell because the detail matters, and the timing.
From 17:24 of the BBC live updates page https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-59934070
90% isnt a good fit with ICU realities either, unless you zoom in in a particular way like Johnson did a while ago, and even that might of been quite far wide of the mark, hard to tell because the detail matters, and the timing.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Yes and this is even more apparent when drilling down to each age groups and using each days figures rather than the averages which are quite laggy the way the dashboard does them. Not sure when I will do my graphs, probably soon.
elbows
Well-Known Member
OK this is what cases by specimen date for the London region look like using my simplified age groups. With the usual caveat about recent data being very incomplete.
Uncertainties very much including what happens next in the younger age groups limits my ability to make many forward looking claims at the moment.
Uncertainties very much including what happens next in the younger age groups limits my ability to make many forward looking claims at the moment.
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elbows
Well-Known Member
Reasons likely include the different pictures in different regions pre-Omicron compared to London pre-Omicron, London being ahead with the Omicron wave, plus of course the overall England figures do still include London. And obviously the changes to rules and mood music and the timing of Christmas and New Year were the same everywhere, which made their timing relative to the Omicron wave different in different places. And obviously there are differences in the size of age groups in different places too.
I probably will do the sae graphs for each region individually but whetehr I post them depends on whether they show anything interesting.
In the meantime here are some graphs that may illustrate some of the differences in London before and during Omicron. Started from a lower base and had a much more dramatic spike in cases in some younger age groups, for a mix of reasons including what happened there in previous waves, vaccination rates, initial Omicron seeding, timing of behavioural changes relative to Omicron growth etc.
From https://assets.publishing.service.g...9_and_Influenza_Surveillance_Graphs_W1_v2.pdf
elbows
Well-Known Member
Latest leak in regards parties:
www.theguardian.com
Email shows Boris Johnson aide invited No 10 staff to lockdown ‘BYOB’ party
Police investigating reports that Martin Reynolds invited 100 employees and PM attended at time when social mixing was banned
elbows
Well-Known Member
I see the BBC did some fact checking of the now infamous doctors claims:
I broadly agree with this bit:
Covid: Fact-checking the doctor who challenged the health secretary
An intensive-care doctor challenged the health secretary over mandatory vaccination - are his claims right?
www.bbc.co.uk
I broadly agree with this bit:
I'm not in any way backing what IC3D said
just above your post here, but in your experience, have you heard many, or any, genuinely "vaccine-hesitant" people outright criticise or condemn conspiracists?? Are they even aware of them even??Good on 'em if any do condemn, but if I was "vaccine-hesitant", which thank the fuck I'm fucking not sir (bring those jabs the fuck on
), I would hate those conspiracy-cunts even more than do us general Urban enemies of them!! 
Very much because of all the shite of Dave from Facebok discrediting genuine concerns, although that's by no means all of the reason ....
Generally, I have to work really hard (myself!!
) to understand and accept actual vaccine-hesitancy stuff, because of all the lamp-post, on-line-post, and White Rose-post anti-vaccine idiocy, and because of their tolerence, even welcoming, of extremism, fascism, etc! 
TBF though, I do wonder whether there might? be a more sympathetic, less suspicion-inducing phrase
than "vaccine hesitancy", that could be used to make the point easier to get ..... 
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elbows
Well-Known Member
In Scotland they are now prepared to start talking about a peak in cases, they are removing the outdoor event restrictions, and their vaccine certification system is going to require boosters in order for people to be classed as fully vaccinated.
And as per the following from the BBC live updates page, they are going to add LFT positives to their official daily case numbers:
That quote is from 14:37 of the BBC live updates page https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-scotland-59940847
And as per the following from the BBC live updates page, they are going to add LFT positives to their official daily case numbers:
That quote is from 14:37 of the BBC live updates page https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-scotland-59940847
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