Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[elbows]

Chris Hopson of NHS providers was prepared to go further than me when discussing recent London hospital admissions data.

He still included some caveats and wiggle room. I'm less certain about that data than him because of the aforementioned picture of cases by age group, although that stuff isnt a perfect guide as to the future of hospital admissions either. Also there were some drops in the figures in other regions on those recent days which in theory are less likely to reflect reality since the timing in the other regions is later in general than London.

Time will tell, neither possibility will surprise me.

The rate of hospitalisations in London during the latest wave of Covid infections may have peaked, a health boss tells the BBC.

Chris Hopson, the chief executive of NHS Providers, says in London - the first region to be hit hard by Omicron - the number of hospitalisations has "dropped significantly" in the past two days.

That could mean the number of hospitalisations in the capital is now matching an earlier apparent peak in cases, he says.

But he warns the "future is uncertain" as we don't yet know the impact of mixing on New Year's Eve and the return of schools.

Hopson, whose organisations represents health trusts, adds that pressure on the NHS is now spreading to hospitals outside London.

"We're seeing increasing numbers of people coming into hospital, we're seeing increasing staff absences, and that's coming on top of a very significant amount of wider pressure," he says.

Thats from the 11:02 entry of the BBC live updates page https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-59857255

 

[brogdale]

Today's (post-Sunday) numbers:

 

[brogdale]

Today's (post-Sunday) numbers:

View attachment 304381

Just to clarify those 42 deaths are all non-hospital ("other settings") deaths from E&W, not Scotland or NI.

 

[teuchter]

Omicron exposes a fundamental fault line between individualism and collectivism that little bit more than delta did. The more a disease has very high transmissibility and very low (serious) morbidity/mortality, the more an individual can reasonably feel that they personally have little to gain from prophylactic measures, even though society as a whole still needs them.

At the extreme, imagine a virus that can transmit just by looking somebody in the eye and whose immunity period only lasts for weeks post-recovery, but whose serious illness/death rate is incredibly low (say 1-in-100 million, or whatever it takes to make the maths work). People can only protect themselves by completely isolating forever, but an individual’s value in doing so is negligible — every time they leave the house to walk to work, their personal risk is likely higher from the traffic than from the disease. Meanwhile, the isolation is devastating. And yet, this disease still has the potential to overwhelm the health services.

Omicron is a long way off that thought experiment, but it’s a step closer to it than Delta was, which means more individuals might reasonably conclude that their personal risk balance has fallen on the side of carrying on with life. This is why community health measures can’t be left to individual choice. If we need to prevent transmission for the sake of overall community protection, it has to be a community-level actor making the decision what to do.

This is closely tied with the "I'm the only mug on this train wearing a mask" effect, ie. even if you're willing to do some stuff for the benefit of public health rather than yourself, it feels pointless if no-one else is doing it, especially if you perceive that the illness is likely to be mild and that the high transmissibility means most people are going to get it regardless.

 

[Steel Icarus]

5.30 my college posted on Facebook that "following changes to government advice" everyone is to wear masks in classrooms as well as communal areas. Also requested everyone has an LFT before coming back to college tomorrow morning. Suspect many staff won't have them to hand let alone students.

 

[Wilf]

5.30 my college posted on Facebook that "following changes to government advice" everyone is to wear masks in classrooms as well as communal areas. Also requested everyone has an LFT before coming back to college tomorrow morning. Suspect many staff won't have them to hand let alone students.

We got a similar one with this phrase included:

Our priority remains to ensure continuity of learning and the student experience, alongside ensuring the safety, health and wellbeing of our university community

To be read as 'we'll - well the staff and students, not management obviously - will carry on with classroom teaching come hell or high water'.

 

[killer b]

5.30 my college posted on Facebook that "following changes to government advice" everyone is to wear masks in classrooms as well as communal areas. Also requested everyone has an LFT before coming back to college tomorrow morning. Suspect many staff won't have them to hand let alone students.

we had an email from my kids school late afternoon saying school will only be open for testing tomorrow, with year groups in during hour timed slots and they'll need to be home otherwise, which at least makes sure everyone is tested before they open school, but also means half the school's kids will be heading off to their more-vulnerable grandparents' houses after testing...

 

[cupid_stunt]

A couple of interesting quotes here, with all the usual caveats, firstly from Hopson of NHS Providers saying that care home omicron outbreaks are not translating into hospital admissions, secondly from Neil Ferguson saying he's “cautiously optimistic” that cases are starting to plateau in London.

A top UK infectious disease expert said he was “cautiously optimistic” that Covid cases are beginning to plateau in London, and that he was expecting cases to come down in regions outside of the capital within one to three weeks.

Prof Neil Ferguson, who specialises in the patterns of spread of infectious disease, told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme:

"I think I’m cautiously optimistic that infection rates in London in that key 18-50 age group, which has been driving the Omicron epidemic, may possibly have plateaued. It’s too early to say whether they’re going down yet.

I would say that with an epidemic which has been spreading so quickly and reaching such high numbers, it can’t sustain those numbers forever, so we would expect to see case numbers start to come down in the next week, maybe already coming down in London, but in other regions a week to three weeks.

Whether they then drop precipitously or we see a pattern a bit like we saw with Delta back in July – of an initial drop and then quite a high plateau – remains to be seen, it’s just too difficult to interpret current mixing trends and what the effect of open schools again will be."

Italy reports record 170,844 cases and 259 deaths; fourth jab gives five-fold antibody boost, study says – as it happened

There were 12,912 people in hospital in Italy; Israel PM says study shows safety of fourth dose and increase in antibodies a week after jab

www.theguardian.com

 

[platinumsage]

Chris Hopson of NHS providers was prepared to go further than me when discussing recent London hospital admissions data.

I wonder why that might be?

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Today's (post-Sunday) numbers:

View attachment 304381

Be careful over interpreting changes in death numbers at the moment. Holiday delays mean that numbers for a week including the holiday period are under reported, while numbers for the week after will have extras from that period. It will take until the end of this week for delayed reporting over Christmas and New year to fully unpack.

In this instance, 500 deaths were reported on 30 and 31 Dec combined. Yesterday was a bank holiday so today's number is likely to be low again with a catch up tomorrow. You can expect the weekly figure after tomorrow to sound very high as it will include catch up numbers for two weeks and be contrasted with a week of under reporting. That will be an artefact not a real trend.

Th Guardian has form for not pointing this stuff out in its reporting.

 

[_Russ_]

Sad excuse for a human being

 

[StoneRoad]

Sad excuse for a human being

Good grief, what nasty pieces of "work".
I'm talking about the makers of that film, as well.
All serious wastes of oxygen.

 

[existentialist]

Sad excuse for a human being

Birds of a feather...

(from that article)

Redfern has received more than £61,000 in donations since she first received a closure notice after a crowdfunding page was set up by former Brexit Party and Abolish the Welsh Assembly candidate Richard Taylor.

 

[mwgdrwg]

Forget the stats, look beyond them, everything is fine...

Omicron stats are huge, but look beyond them

A difficult month lies ahead, but the evidence points to this wave being different from ones before.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[existentialist]

Forget the stats, look beyond them, everything is fine...

Omicron stats are huge, but look beyond them

A difficult month lies ahead, but the evidence points to this wave being different from ones before.

www.bbc.co.uk

Ah, Triggle again. Cassandra's idiot twin.

 

[two sheds]

Sad excuse for a human being

Son of Icke

 

[two sheds]

Can't link to it because it's rolling news but Guardian headline says

UK Covid news: up to 15% of Omicron cases are reinfections, says top scientist – live​

so with vaccinations and reinfections reducing severity of omicron, do we know yet how serious it is compared to delta (say) in non-vaxxed people?

 

[cupid_stunt]

Can't link to it because it's rolling news but Guardian headline says

UK Covid news: up to 15% of Omicron cases are reinfections, says top scientist – live​

so with vaccinations and reinfections reducing severity of omicron, do we know yet how serious it is compared to delta (say) in non-vaxxed people?

Below is the link to that post, the next post under that quotes Ferguson saying....

I think the good news here is it is certainly less severe. We think, if you’ve never been infected before, never had a vaccine, [there is] about a one third drop in the risk of just any hospital admission, probably a two thirds drop in the risk of dying from Omicron. So [it is] substantially less severe. And that has helped us undoubtedly. We would be seeing much higher infection case numbers in hospital otherwise.

And vaccines, as we always expected they would, are holding up against severe outcomes well. Well that doesn’t mean it’s not going to be, as the prime minister said, a difficult few weeks for the NHS.

UK Covid: Johnson admits some hospitals already feel overwhelmed at times – as it happened

Latest updates: PM also announces daily testing for 100,000 key workers; more NHS hospital trusts declaring critical incidents

www.theguardian.com

 

[two sheds]

Interesting, ta. I'm a bit surprised though with the 1/3 drop in hospital admissions - huge number of people have been vaccinated but still very high admissions.

Eta: ah a lot of that will be down to faster transmission.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Interesting, ta. I'm a bit surprised though with the 1/3 drop in hospital admissions - huge number of people have been vaccinated but still very high admissions.

Cases are far higher than this time last year, remember there's been problems testing recently and re-infections are not included in the daily figures. whereas admissions are much lower, so we're back to a smaller percentage from a much bigger number.

And, those on ventilation beds, mainly the unvaccinated, are under 25% of the level seen last Jan.

 

[_Russ_]

I think the good news here is it is certainly less severe. We think, if you’ve never been infected before, never had a vaccine, [there is] about a one third drop in the risk of just any hospital admission, probably a two thirds drop in the risk of dying from Omicron. So [it is] substantially less severe. And that has helped us undoubtedly. We would be seeing much higher infection case numbers in hospital otherwise.

I wish he would show at least a basic working of how he comes to that figure
No way ill just to take his word for it

 

[littlebabyjesus]

And, those on ventilation beds, mainly the unvaccinated, are under 25% of the level seen last Jan.

This is the most striking difference, I think. The number on ventilation beds has barely changed. It's up slightly in London (approx 240 from 200), but only slightly, and not at all elsewhere.

If even Neil Ferguson is saying this is different, we must be onto something. Wonder what he's saying now about the apocalyptic forecasts he was giving two weeks ago? Why did he get it so wrong? (Again)

 

[cupid_stunt]

I wish he would show at least a basic working of how he comes to that figure
No way ill just to take his word for it

Err, all the data seems to support what he's saying.

 

[_Russ_]

Err, all the data seems to support what he's saying.

Im not certain of that, but of course I havn't seen everything. Not sure how you seem satisfied when even he says "we think"

 

[cupid_stunt]

Im not certain of that, but of course I havn't seen everything. Not sure how you seem satisfied when even he says "we think"

It's basically what loads of experts have been saying for over a week, with a number of studies finding that to be the case.

More evidence is emerging that the Omicron coronavirus variant is affecting the upper respiratory tract, causing milder symptoms than previous variants, a World Health Organization official said on Tuesday.

"We are seeing more and more studies pointing out that Omicron is infecting the upper part of the body. Unlike the other ones, that could cause severe pneumonia," WHO Incident Manager Abdi Mahamud told Geneva-based journalists, saying it could be "good news".

WHO sees more evidence that Omicron causes milder symptoms

More evidence is emerging that the Omicron coronavirus variant is affecting the upper respiratory tract, causing milder symptoms than previous variants and resulting in a "decoupling" in some places between soaring case numbers and low death rates, a World Health Organization official said on...

www.reuters.com

 

[_Russ_]

You're missing the point, read the bit I quoted initially, Specifically:

We think, if you’ve never been infected before, never had a vaccine, [there is] about a one third drop in the risk of just any hospital admission

This claim goes beyond just saying its less severe, Im unsure of the evidence for this claim (tbf he seems unsure himself)

 

[Storm Fox]

This is the most striking difference, I think. The number on ventilation beds has barely changed. It's up slightly in London (approx 240 from 200), but only slightly, and not at all elsewhere.

If even Neil Ferguson is saying this is different, we must be onto something. Wonder what he's saying now about the apocalyptic forecasts he was giving two weeks ago? Why did he get it so wrong? (Again)

If you get it wrong one way you end up with a load of people whinging about how the scientists got it wrong. Get it wrong the other way and you end up with a lot of dead people.

 

[killer b]

Wonder what he's saying now about the apocalyptic forecasts he was giving two weeks ago? Why did he get it so wrong? (Again)

is that this forecast? It still seems reasonable based on the information they had at the time. He got it 'wrong' because you really want to plan for the worst rather than the best with this sort of stuff I'd imagine. The government took a massive gamble which looks to have paid off, but it could easily not have done.

Omicron could overwhelm NHS if it is as virulent as Delta, Neil Ferguson says

Exclusive: UK already experiencing ‘very explosive wave of infection’ from new variant, top scientist says

www.theguardian.com

 

[komodo]

Just think about it - this omnicron kicked in one of the most undervaxed parts of the country and yet the hospitals are still coping. Just about coping I should say - due to the staffing crisis. This point has been underplayed deliberately to encourage people to get their vaccinations/boosters. Which is fair enough IMHO.

Have also read in Chris Hopson’s posts that hospitals are not receiving admissions with COVID from old peoples homes. But a lot of those homes are blocked to new admissions because they have COVID outbreaks. So initial evidence is that older people are coping OK.

 

[cupid_stunt]

You're missing the point, read the bit I quoted initially, Specifically:
"We think, if you’ve never been infected before, never had a vaccine, [there is] about a one third drop in the risk of just any hospital admission"

This claim goes beyond just saying its less severe, Im unsure of the evidence for this claim (tbf he seems unsure himself)

No, you are missing the point, and your selected quoting this time misses what he starts by saying 'I think the good news here is it is certainly less severe', then 'we think.....', followed by a estimates the actual percentages, so it may not be exactly 33.3% & 66.6%, but may be slightly less or more, but they think it's around that level. That will be based on the current data available, and the increasing number of studies.