Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[elbows]

Those calls would come anyway, I'd rather at least that some of those calls were at least based on a theory and model that we could actually test. As opposed to the vast amount that would have come anyway, regardless of their lack of any actual merit or scientific testability.

 

[smokedout]

Isn't the Diamond Princess relevant here? Around 3000 people, 700 cases and 10 deaths so far I think. I'm guessing that they are generally older but I'm assuming they tested everyone they could find who'd been on it, that should give some data. Has there been any published analysis of how many cases were asymptomatic/mild?

 

[Azrael]

I am not an epidemiologist but it looks like they assumed that only a small number of people is susceptible to a serious disease and then proceeded to posit that an exponential growth in a population with a small number of susceptible people looks like an exponential growth in a population with lots of susceptible people, so one (they really) could argue that over a longer period of time we'll all have/had it.

My reading too. If they're right, it's still a public health scandal, but the govt got relatively lucky and the consequences are a lot less widespread than feared. (No comfort to the victims and their families, mind.) If they're wrong, I dread to think how many ExCel Centres we'll be filling. Precautionary principle's screaming at us not to roll these dice.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

No problem whatsoever with them throwing resources at investigating asymptomatic spread. Data from elsewhere suggests it's crucial. My issue's that their phrasing it this way, at this time, could be catastrophic. Calls to lift the lockdown ASAP will soon be overwhelming. Trump's already suggesting dropping it by Easter. That could be used to pile on pressure to community test and contact trace. Or, if their angle gains traction, could be used to do nothing, which is what the laissez-faire crowd already want.

Yeah, but mass testing is the way, regardless, so in a sense this idea doesn't point at doing anything differently right now.

It does highlight how bonkers the idea was that you should limit testing here in the UK until just very recently, though. Meanwhile, Germany got busy mass-producing tests.

 

[Azrael]

Those calls would come anyway, I'd rather at least that some of those calls were at least based on a theory and model that we could actually test. As opposed to the vast amount that would have come anyway, regardless of their lack of any actual merit or scientific testability.

They're inevitable. But world of difference between channeling the frustration into setting up a surveillance and quarantine regime based on clinical data, and false hope from a model that its authors admit is hypothetical.

 

[Saul Goodman]

Just what's needed here, someone who posts up links to an official report, but can't even grasp the meaning of the most basic data contained within it - useful contribution, well done

Just what's needed here... someone who doesn't understand that 212 hospitalised cases means 212 hospitalised cases. Just because some weren't born in Cornwall, doesn't mean the statistics aren't FROM Cornwall.
But you carry on only giving a fuck about yourself, you selfish "my surfboarding is more important than the lives of others" cunt

 

[elbows]

I am not an epidemiologist but it looks like they assumed that only a small number of people is susceptible to a serious disease and then proceeded to posit that an exponential growth in a population with a small number of susceptible people looks like an exponential growth in a population with lots of susceptible people, so one (they really) could argue that over a longer period of time we'll all have/had it.

Yeah pretty much, as best my brain can tell tonight. One day I might go back and see if I was spouting some half-baked, poorly described version of this theory myself. Assumptions are fine so long as they are one of the parts of the theory that you actually want to test, as opposed to dogmatically adhered to truths.

Theres plenty in the world of science and modelling meets politics and economics where I am left uncertain whether the tail is wagging the dog. Maybe time will tell on that front too, like it surely needs to tell on so many others for us to get the right grip on this thing in the medium to long term.

 

[Azrael]

Yeah, but mass testing is the way, regardless, so in a sense this idea doesn't point at doing anything differently right now.

It does highlight how bonkers the idea was that you should limit testing here in the UK until just very recently, though. Meanwhile, Germany got busy mass-producing tests.

Unless policy's changed in last few hours, they're still limiting testing to gravely ill hospital cases. Not even NHS staff are being tested, potentially turning them into superspreaders. No attempt's being made to contract trace, and we've lost nearly two weeks in charting the virus' spread.

Pressure to all these things will be irresistible if they're viewed as the only realistic hope of easing the lockdown. But a govt obsessed with laissez-faire, "survival of the fittest", and the immunity that dare not speak its name will jump on the slightest excuse to do nothing.

 

[Saul Goodman]

Just what's needed here, someone who posts up links to an official report, but can't even grasp the meaning of the most basic data contained within it - useful contribution, well done

I can't believe you're so fucking thick that you're trying to justify your selfish attitude. "I love surfing, so fuck everybody else!" NO...FUCK YOU!... and fuck your selfish as fuck attitude! You sound like a fucking thick yank with a gun... "It's my gun... I can use it"

 

[elbows]

No attempt's being made to contract trace, and we've lost nearly two weeks in charting the virus' spread.

If you think there is some picture that we've only been missing for 2 weeks, then I think you had the wrong impression about how effective the testing regime was before they changed it to be mostly hospital-only cases.

 

[cantsin]

I can't believe you're so fucking thick that you're trying to justify your selfish attitude. "I love surfing, so fuck everybody else!" NO...FUCK YOU!... and fuck your selfish as fuck attitude! You sound like a fucking thick yank with a gun... "It's my gun... I can use it"

You on the sauce ?

 

[Azrael]

If you think there is some picture that we've only been missing for 2 weeks, then I think you had the wrong impression about how effective the testing regime was before they changed it to be mostly hospital-only cases.

I certainly did before the herd immunity conference, but not since. There was at least some data before. Now even that's been cut off. I note that several institutions are being forced to step in with their own resources, but to really work, this needs the power of the state.

 

[Saul Goodman]

You on the sauce ?

You a complete selfish cunt who doesn't give a fuck about anybody but themself?

 

[cantsin]

You a complete selfish cunt who doesn't give a fuck about anybody but themself?

Yr. a timewasting plonker, squawking nonsense, go to bed or sthn

 

[little_legs]

Isn't the Diamond Princess relevant here? Around 3000 people, 700 cases and 10 deaths so far I think. I'm guessing that they are generally older but I'm assuming they tested everyone they could find who'd been on it, that should give some data. Has there been any published analysis of how many cases were asymptomatic/mild?

The ship is an example where a large proportion of an entire population needed hospital treatment.

 

[Saul Goodman]

Yr. a timewasting plonker, squawking nonsense, go to bed or sthn

And you're a self-centred cunt, who thinks his surfboarding is more important than the lives of others. But you carry on, eh. You show others how important you are, and don't forget to wear your Omega Seamaster, just to prove to everyone else that you're better than them, and that normal rules don't apply to you, because you're so fucking special and entitled.
Whaaaaa... I need my surfboard time... whaaaaa!!!!! WANKER!!!

 

[cantsin]

And you're a self-centred cunt, who thinks his surfboarding is more important than the lives of others. But you carry on, eh. You show others how important you are, and don't forget to wear your Omega Seamaster, just to prove to everyone else that you're better than them, and that normal rules don't apply to you, because you're so fucking special.
Whaaaaa... I need my surfboard time... whaaaaa!!!!! WANKER!!!

Try looking at the report again when yr sober, maybe get someone to talk you through the numbers and what they mean, and I'll quietly get on with my contactless, near risk free ( as per the report ) ' single exercise' option, 100 +' yds from the handful of others doing likewise, before returning home, having not once stopped along the way.

Gnight

 

[Saul Goodman]

before returning home, having not once stopped along the way.

Until you have an accident whilst surfing, or need to stop for a piss, or need to stop to show someone how important you are!
You know there's absolutely no need for you to go surfing, yet you're going to do it anyway, despite the fact that it could negatively affect others (in a death kinda way), because you're better than everyone else. Well done you. I bet you're gonna tell all your mates at the golf club how you don't give a fuck that you endangered the proles, because your sense of entitlement trumps all.

 

[TopCat]

You on the sauce ?

All of us...

 

[Saul Goodman]

All of us...

Fuck me, how could do this sober!

 

[TopCat]

When do the numbers get released?

 

[Saul Goodman]

When do the numbers get released?

Results | The National Lottery

 

[TopCat]

Our deaths up 87 according to BBC.

 

[editor]

And you're a self-centred cunt, who thinks his surfboarding is more important than the lives of others. But you carry on, eh. You show others how important you are, and don't forget to wear your Omega Seamaster, just to prove to everyone else that you're better than them, and that normal rules don't apply to you, because you're so fucking special and entitled.
Whaaaaa... I need my surfboard time... whaaaaa!!!!! WANKER!!!

This is a thread about a deadly virus, you fucking muppet. Take a week off this thread.

 

[redsquirrel]

That is another possibility

Hack: So you mean half the population could have had it already then?
Scientist: Well, no, not really, I don't think that, that's not what our work suggested
Hack: So it's a possibilty then?
Scientist: Well yes I suppose, I mean anything is possible but that's not ...
Hack: Yah thanks bye. (hangs up)

I haven't read the report but I think this is quit a likely scenario.

I've no idea how the science of the Oxford work stands up or how it compares to the ICL work but it is absolutely correct that different models should be tested, and that different groups should test each others work. One of the reasons we are now so confident in climate change is precisely because the modelling has undergone such rigourous testing. And it is entirely unsurprising that for a system with so many unknowns as COVID-19 has that there will be range of results. This work is yet another reason why the "trust the experts" line is so problematic.

 

[SpineyNorman]

just got a UK govt text saying you must stay at home, is this the one for very vulnerable, max confinement, etc.

It's a letter you get if you're in one or more of the vulnerable categories, my dad got his on Monday

 

[Shechemite]

Look after yourself treelover

 

[bimble]

treelover i got this text yesterday and am not in any vulnerable group. If yours said the same as this then it was just the standard text they are sending to everybody.

 

[Shechemite]

Do you have anyone who can bring you stuff treelover?

 

[weltweit]

question for you all..?

I havent been out of the house since Thursday , Im doing fine , but my wages go in at 4pm tomorrow , and i need to get food and some beer if I'm honest. so ,can someone who has been out and about, would it be wise to go shopping then or wait til the morning? I want to go out as little as possible , but really am getting low on stuff

Ta in advance, ( I think i know the answer but you know... )

ruffneck23 are you in one of the vulnerable groups, over 70 or with an existing health issue? If so I would advise you to stay put and instead have a look at your local facebook groups because many will be organising help for shopping and the like for people like you so that you don't have to leave your home.