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Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

Interesting and hopeful, though it also shows how far apart the experts seem to be in their understanding of corvid-19
 
Oh joy, we're back to "herd immunity".

Even if they're right, why on Earth have the team publicised this now, before the data's even begun to be collected? It could irrevocably embed fatalism in Westminster, and destroy any momentum towards establishing long-term surveillance and quarantine measures.

The CMO wrongly claimed that some 20% of Wuhan's population has contracted Covid-19, and "herd immunity" had helped defeat it: the actual figure's thought to be closer to 5%, and there's been no evidence produced that attributes the drop to herd immunity rather than aggressive suppression.

I'm far more scared of this official defeatism than I am of Covid-19. It's just a virus, an unthinking agent of chaos, following its nature. The government doesn't have to be.
 
Dying wouldn't be the problem. Breaking bones, etc would be.

If we were talking skiing etc, would definitely be an issue, and also kite surfing ( which is best on v windy days ) - but amongst a wide circle of folk down here, and the wider surfing community that I hear about online, I've never heard of a broken bone in 13yrs, ( it's a water thing - kite surfers smash into walls and stuff on the beach ) , or indeed an A + E visit ( and people here will surf 4/5 days per week when lucky with swell etc ) .

(the odd holiday maker does drown unfortunately, but we're not talking about visitors in this instance)
 
If we were talking skiing etc, would definitely be an issue, and also kite surfing ( which is best on v windy days ) - but amongst a wide circle of folk down here, and the wider surfing community that I hear about online, I've never heard of a broken bone in 13yrs, ( it's a water thing - kite surfers smash into walls and stuff on the beach ) , or indeed an A + E visit ( and people here will surf 4/5 days per week when lucky with swell etc ) .

(the odd holiday maker does drown unfortunately, but we're not talking about visitors in this instance)
 
Interesting, this. Has a test for COVID antibodies been set up yet?



Oh good, I will go and read that shortly. Because this is absolutely one of the main reasons I've been so interested in serological surveys and understanding the true extent of mild or asymptomatic cases of this disease for so long. Its one of the main reasons I have repeatedly said I'm not interested in the current case fatality ratios.

I have still kept going on about the serology (antibody) tests because there are other reasons they are important too. But I probably havent focussed on the potentially game-changing optimistic possibilities for ages because the WHO dampened a lot of hopes on that front with things Bruce Aylward said when their China mission report was released. That was about a month ago now, and although I didnt want to believe its conclusions at the time, I still cannot take those thoughts any further without some kind of data evidence to the contrary of what they said. At the time he said that China did some widespread testing and found very few signs of wider infection rates, but he did also say that they were only just starting actual serology tests there, so he could be back a week later saying something different. Since then I've not heard of any results from China on this, so I remain none the wiser.

One of the reasons I never wanted to rule out much wider spread infection, and the possibility that the impact of this virus is only pronounced and devastating when it first emerges, is that I'm very interested in some of the other coronaviruses that make up a proportion of our seasonal colds. I'm interested in what these viruses would have been like in terms of what impact they would have had when they first arrived in human populations, and how quickly they 'sunk into the background' to the extent that they would be unremarkable and not high on anyones list of priorities.

Anyway I do not like to get my hopes up too much, and in general I find it hard to share optimistic thoughts when especially terrible moments approach. But I can go as far as to say that most of my concerns and tales of horrible woe have been very much focussed on the short term, I would not rule out wonderful outcomes later on, or that some of the huge gaps in our current knowledge are eventually filled with detail that isnt all bad in its implications for humanity.
 
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Oh good, I will go and read that shortly. Because this is absolutely one of the main reasons I've been so interested in serological surveys and understanding the true extent of mild or asymptomatic cases of this disease for so long. Its one of the main reasons I have repeatedly said I'm not interested in the current case fatality ratios.

I have still kept going on about the serology (antibody) tests because there are other reasons they are important too. But I probably havent focussed on the potentially game-changing optimistic possibilities for ages because the WHO dampened a lot of hopes on that front with things Bruce Aylward said when their China mission report was released. That was about a month ago now, and although I didnt want to believe its conclusions at the time, I still cannot take those thoughts any further without some kind of data evidence to the contrary of what they said. At the time he said that China did some widespread testing and found very few signs of wider infection rates, but he did also say that they were only just starting actual serology tests there, so he could be back a week later saying something different. Since then I've not heard of any results from China on this, so I remain none the wiser.

One of the reasons I never wanted to rule out much wider spread infection, and the possibility that the impact of this virus is only pronounced and devastating when it first emerges, is that I'm very interested in some of the other coronaviruses that make up a proportion of our seasonal colds. I'm interested in what these viruses would have been like in terms of what impact they would have had when they first arrived in human populations, and how quickly they 'sunk into the background' to the extent that they would be unremarkable and not high on anyones list of priorities.

Anyway I do not like to get my hopes up too much, and in general I find it hard to share optimistic thoughts when especially terrible moments approach. But I can go as far as to say that most of my concerns and tales of horrible woe have been very much focussed on the short term, I would not rule out wonderful outcomes later on, or that some of the huge gaps in our current knowledge are eventually filled with detail that isnt all bad.

TBF that would explain the recent easing of conditions over there, as well as the otherwise surprising reduction in the number of cases.

edit: they really need to establish the extent of this over here asap though
 
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TBF that would explain the recent easing of conditions over there, as well as the otherwise surprising reduction in the number of cases.

edit: they really need to establish the extent of this over here asap though
They're going to start antibody testing on the general population in a few days. I reckon there will be about 50 million volunteers.
 
Favelado you are just descending into sweary Mary stupidity.
I suggest winding your fat neck in a bit.
I have depression issues, have cancer and am going for a walk once a day.
[/QUOTE]

Afair, Favelado lives and works in Spain, which must all be very eye of the storm atm but which is also where we are heading.
Fwiw - and where I DO have a garden/outdoor space - I totally understand the urgency in his posts and I am also concerned for people like you, whose immune systems are already compromised.
I'm a few pages behind so apologies if this point has been made already but it's difficult to see people doing the right thing being taken to task later.

I saw a very easy to absorb visual on BBC news the other day (which I know I've seen on here) which illustrated our own spread really effectively.
I can't find it now (can anyone else?) but it was a good demonstration of basic maths, how one person could go on to infect 400+ instead of 14.

Waffling - I think we all need to listen well and to be kind to each other - also to offer any practical help we can.
 
TBF that would explain the recent easing of conditions over there, as well as the otherwise surprising reduction in the number of cases.

edit: they really need to establish the extent of this over here asap though

I don't think the reduction in cases is particularly surprising. China's lockdown was comprehensive, and widely followed. It was inevitable that cases would drop under those circumstances. Second thing is that China has been planning a lifting, or at least relaxing of restrictions around now for a while...

e2a: before anyone points it out, yes I know that it might come back in China as they allow more movement, not my point.
 
just got a UK govt text saying you must stay at home, is this the one for very vulnerable, max confinement, etc.

They've sent out a text to everyone I think, the 'new rules in force' one. The actual rules are a little less dramatic, but I think they've got the message right on this one by leading with a particularly severe statement.
 
:D

I hope though its NHS first, then food supply / distribution, then the rest of the emergency services.
Yeah fair dos. * shuffles to the back of the queue *

One thing I hope this has brought home to more people (it has to me) is who exactly it is that does the really important work. Shop workers are right up there. The staff in my local supermarket were taking this very seriously today but were also in very good spirits, mostly, despite the fact that you could tell some of them were concerned. Good on all those who felt uneasy about it but reported for work anyway. You're stars. :)
 


METHODS:
The details of patients presenting (with injuries sustained while surfboard/bodyboard riding) to the Emergency Department (ED) of the Royal Cornwall Hospital, Truro (UK), from September 2004 until August 2006 were recorded prospectively. The notes were then retrospectively reviewed by a senior ED physician. The records of each visit were scrutinized for date, age, sex, injury type, and injury severity and outcome; in addition, the patient's residential status (Cornish resident or visitor) was recorded.

RESULTS:
A total of 212 patient episodes were collected. Male patients represented 80% of injuries. The average age was 27 years (range, 11-66 years). Nonresident surfers represented 57% (121) of the patients, and 43% (91) of patients were local Cornwall residents. Of the total injuries, 90% (n = 190) were injuries that were minor/moderate (allowing for discharge after treatment)

= 9 non minor injuries amongst THE WHOLE RESIDENT CORNWALL SURF COMMUNITY....IN 2 YRS
 
cant think of the right words here , or at least one's that aren't going to get me into trouble :

"We have ONE district hospital here in North Devon with SEVEN ventilators. The entire Allsopp family could need EVERY bed within the next two weeks instead of staying put in West London where their medical provision is."

 
cant think of the right words here , or at least one's that aren't going to get me into trouble :

"We have ONE district hospital here in North Devon with SEVEN ventilators. The entire Allsopp family could need EVERY bed within the next two weeks instead of staying put in West London where their medical provision is."

Here you go. This is selfish travelling behaviour.
 
question for you all..?

I havent been out of the house since Thursday , Im doing fine , but my wages go in at 4pm tomorrow , and i need to get food and some beer if I'm honest. so ,can someone who has been out and about, would it be wise to go shopping then or wait til the morning? I want to go out as little as possible , but really am getting low on stuff

Ta in advance, ( I think i know the answer but you know... )
 
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