cupid_stunt
Merry fecking Christmas.
It's not often I agree with Frank, but he's spot on here, we're certainly not hoarding vaccines, every dose delivered is going into arms as quick as the NHS can do it.
Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion
- Thread starter Sasaferrato
- Start date
It's not often I agree with Frank, but he's spot on here, we're certainly not hoarding vaccines, every dose delivered is going into arms as quick as the NHS can do it.
2hats
Dust.
Note that those aren't responses to human vaccine sera but are based off animal models.
However, better T-cell, rather than antibody response wouldn't be inconsistent with their human trials data and the mild episodes (big pinch of salt: small numbers, wide confidence intervals).
One possible explanation for AZD1222 antibody response seemingly lagging all the other leading vaccines (aside from, here, sub-optimal dosing regime and, more generally, homologous boosting), in particular relative to J&Js Janssen single dose (human adenovirus viral vector) vaccine, is that it hasn't made use of prefusion stabilisation (used not only by Ad26.COV2.S, but also at least by BNT162b2, mRNA-1273 and NVX-CoV2373).
All the above might also suggest that AZD1222 could be somewhat less effective at transmission reduction than the other vaccines.
Last edited:
editor
hiraethified
Listen to these fucking cunts:
www.huffingtonpost.co.uk
NHS Has Been 'Nothing Special' In Pandemic, Right-Wing Think Tank Says
Institute for Economic Affairs report says it's a "myth" that the health service performed well
elbows
Well-Known Member
Free market think tanks are going out of fashion, so I suppose I would expect increasingly shrill tones from such entities going forwards.
I'd rather listen to the head of the CBI these days! eg this from earlier in Feb:
www.theguardian.com
I'd rather listen to the head of the CBI these days! eg this from earlier in Feb:
UK should respond to economic crisis with 1945-style reboot, says CBI chief
Covid, climate change and Brexit demand consensus on ‘a fairer, greener, economy’ says Tony Danker
elbows
Well-Known Member
I really do expect to have numerous opportunities to piss myself with laughter as those free market shitheads lose all the momentum - its been happening for years already and the very least they deserve is to feel what its like when 'There Is No Alternative' is aligned against their agenda instead of in favour of their shit.
TINA turned on them. TINA Turner!
TINA turned on them. TINA Turner!
platinumsage
HaveMyPassword123
Lock them up!
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
Belatedly - Shocked, I am - they are getting the quarantine and fines in place, but haven't quite managed to close the airports or formally restrict them to emergency flights only? Just about 3 or 4 days ago johnson was going through the 'it's a balance... we, can't shut them... capitalism', wasn't he?
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
i'd rather not, they haven't anything of substance to addListen to these fucking cunts:
NHS Has Been 'Nothing Special' In Pandemic, Right-Wing Think Tank Says
Institute for Economic Affairs report says it's a "myth" that the health service performed well
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
word is that when dominic cummings saw the daily mail declaring
he crapped his pants
he crapped his pants
Buddy Bradley
Pantheistic solipsist
Are the DM trying to sneak in some sneering at travellers with that headline, or am I just too suspicious.
elbows
Well-Known Member
They havent even included all countries, jsut the ones on the red list. Scotland goes a little further, but wants the UK to go further still:
Thats from 15:19 of the BBC live updates page https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-55992464
cupid_stunt
Merry fecking Christmas.
Today's reported figures -
First dose vaccinations now 12,646,486
New cases - 12,364, overall a drop of 26.6% in the last week.
New deaths - 1,052, which is down 397 on last Tuesday's 1,449, that brings the 7-day average down to around 835 a day, a drop of 25.7% in the last week.
souljacker
innit
Two days in a row with no deaths in Reading. I know that can change due to reporting lags but it's a very good sign.
teuchter
je suis teuchter
Well, all of the numbers currently available seem to show a quite distinct peak in deaths around the 19th Jan, with quite a sharp change from rising rapidly to falling rapidly. The downwards trajectory at the moment appears to be steeper than the one following the 1st wave peak.
The peak comes just about exactly 2 weeks after 'lockdown 3' was implemented. Can we take this as a signal that not only has this lockdown worked, but that those saying it isn't 'hard' enough are probably wrong?
The peak comes just about exactly 2 weeks after 'lockdown 3' was implemented. Can we take this as a signal that not only has this lockdown worked, but that those saying it isn't 'hard' enough are probably wrong?
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
Well, we can take it that lockdowns work and that, more lockdown works better than less. Beyond that though, it's about which activities have the most risk attached to them, as to what you should control. But, once you get past a level where a functioning test and trace system would contain the pandemic, it really is about lockdowns.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Some fears of mine including the deaths plateauing at the very highest levels for a very long time have certainly been avoided, which is excellent.
But in regards whether the lockdown was hard enough or not, I will judge that in part on whether the number of deaths keep falling all the way to negligible levels, or whether it gets stuck at a certain level at some point.
If we reset our feeling about what counts as a high level of infection, as we should given quite how large the peak was and how that affects perceptions once things have fallen back down the other side then there is still a very long way to go indeed. And I will go nuts if we get a repeat of the feeble test & trace etc summer phase last year, where some areas were stuck with a situation where infections in the community persisted and local lockdowns involved plenty of pain without as much gain as was required. I do expect them to do better with that stuff this time, but its too early for me to go on about opportunities taken and opportunities squandered until infection levels fall to a level that unlock various responses (eg test & trace stands a much better chance when there are far fewer daily infections to deal with). The prospect of the vast majority of samples being able to be tested to determine their genomics was music to my ears when JVT mentioned it the other day, but again this relies on total number of positive cases being lower than it has been in recent months.
agricola
a genuine importer of owls
Indeed, and of course they won't be doing that. Patel's idea of fitting people with a tag for the duration of the quarantine would have been better than this is.
agricola
a genuine importer of owls
Sadly, I don't. There is no indication they've learnt the slightest thing from that failure, or even identified what a failure it was.
elbows
Well-Known Member
When looking at that sort of thing its a good idea to drill down to the regional level. I dont have the right graphs handy right now but there was plenty of regional variation the first time that I'm sure contributed to the nature of the downwards trajectory. From memory the fall in things like hospital admission rates after the first wave peak was very steep in the London region, but quite a different shape for large parts of the deline in the North West, for example.
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
As to whether the weekly numbers are something to celebrate, they obviously are and aren't at the same time (better that it's going down - obviously and genuinely - but not in the sense of ongoing human misery). But to me, anything that remains in the realms of thousands of new infections and hundreds of deaths remains suited to blunt instrument solutions - lockdowns + focused testing to chase after new strains. There has to be a downward step-change, if that's a real phrase, before the whole problem suits itself to specific solutions, local solutions and the rest. Vaccinations will hopefully move us towards that kind of scenario. Problem will be tory loons pushing a reopening on the promise of vaccinations, whilst we are still in the thousands of cases/hundreds of death phrase.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Well I'm not going to get too carried away, for example in the press conference the other day it was still very clear that they are not thinking about zero Covid approaches at all.
But it will be hard for them to make as poor a job of test & trace as they did the first time. It has slowly improved in some ways, and I will judge it afresh once we are at a stage where such things become better able to carry more of the burden.
Leighsw2
strictly off the record
Interesting how they point at the much better Covid experience of the Asian countries and then draw all the wrong conclusions ('it's because of their free market economies and private health care systems'). Also interesting how they don't cite the excellent performance of the Communist regimes in China and Vietnam!Listen to these fucking cunts:
NHS Has Been 'Nothing Special' In Pandemic, Right-Wing Think Tank Says
Institute for Economic Affairs report says it's a "myth" that the health service performed well
elbows
Well-Known Member
Also in the first wave there was the terrible wave of care home deaths that was slightly later than the broader community peak, in part due to the way things took a bit of time to filter from NHS discharge policy to care home outbreaks and deaths. We have not avoided care home outbreaks and deaths this time, but the scale and timing of the problem this time is likely a bit different.
elbows
Well-Known Member
I will probably allow myself to cheer in some limited way once the number of daily hospital admissions/diagnoses is way lower than it was during the first 'pre new variant talk' phase of the second wave (November). I can still cheer the steep downwards trajectory, but there is a long way to go. Currently its at a level of about half what was seen during the January peak, real progress, I want to see more.
Made using data from the UK dashboard.
teuchter
je suis teuchter
elbows
Well-Known Member
Its early days, I would say the various studies so far mean we can just consider some things in a tentative way.
I dont think the authorities expect it to be amazing against that strain because otherwise the likes of JVT would probably not have publicly raised the idea of autumn boosters, and he deliberately sidestepped getting bogged down in quite how well it would work by instead focussing on a point about how the South African variant is not likely to dominate in the UK in the coming months. And the vaccine developers wouldnt have felt the need to go on so loudly about their work to quickly adapt the vaccine to new strains if they thought that to be a minor issue at this stage.
editor
hiraethified
South African variant found in Lambeth
www.brixtonbuzz.com
Lambeth residents urged to get tested after South African Covid-19 strain found
Lambeth Council is asking residents living and working in the borough’s Knight’s Hill ward, which includes parts of West Norwood and some streets in Streatham, to get a Covid-19 test, whether they …
www.brixtonbuzz.com
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