Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[Wilf]

I agree with the latter sentiment. In the future I'd also back covid passports, funnily enough I think BA is trailling them even though the UK government is against them.

I'm not certain but wasnt the early SAGE advice not to shut down airports?

Don't know, tbh, but if you ask the question 'what are the best ways to ensure the spread of the virus and open us up to potential new strains', keeping airports open is pretty high up the list. I'd have thought by the late Summer, as cases were rising again, the government should have put plans in place to reduce air traffic to an absolute minimum. Essentially, closing the airports, but with whatever level of flights needed to be left in place for emergency travel. Plus testing and quarantine of course. It's astonishing that they are only just getting there now, even allowing for the shitlumps we have in power. There is a genuine balance with this as with any other bit of the pandemic management, but yet again, they've acted too late and killed people as a result.

 

[two sheds]

And after allowing it for so long suddenly discovering it's important so wildly overcompensating by threatening 10 years in pokey for people who break the rules.

 

[The39thStep]

Don't know, tbh, but if you ask the question 'what are the best ways to ensure the spread of the virus and open us up to potential new strains', keeping airports open is pretty high up the list. I'd have thought by the late Summer, as cases were rising again, the government should have put plans in place to reduce air traffic to an absolute minimum. Essentially, closing the airports, but with whatever level of flights needed to be left in place for emergency travel. Plus testing and quarantine of course. It's astonishing that they are only just getting there now, even allowing for the shitlumps we have in power. There is a genuine balance with this as with any other bit of the pandemic management, but yet again, they've acted too late and killed people as a result.

I agree with you whole heartedly on travel restrictions. The point I'm trying to make is that if we had an inquiry it would be pointed out that our peers in Europe also failed to do that. Hinsidght a is a great thing and undoubtedly reducing flights to emergency ones may be first port of call in surges/waves of pandemics.

 

[The39thStep]

And after allowing it for so long suddenly discovering it's important so wildly overcompensating by threatening 10 years in pokey for people who break the rules.

when not one workplace has been fined for unsafe covid working practices

 

[Wilf]

I think there's been a failure to use the protective principle throughout (the willingness to take decisions that are sensible measures to protect us from risk, even ahead of definitive evidence). Wearing masks in public fits into that category certainly. I'll make the not entirely outrageous suggestion that a lot of this was about not disrupting capital in the short term. The outcome has of course been to fuck everyone in the long term.

 

[Monkeygrinder's Organ]

And after allowing it for so long suddenly discovering it's important so wildly overcompensating by threatening 10 years in pokey for people who break the rules.

That's just cackhanded signalling really isn't it. Does anyone think there will actually be any sentences anywhere near ten years given out? I doubt it. It's just trying to shout about how they're being tough now.

 

[Wilf]

That's just cackhanded signalling really isn't it. Does anyone think there will actually be any sentences anywhere near ten years given out? I doubt it. It's just trying to shout about how they're being tough now.

boris johnson visits Scotland...

 

[Ms Ordinary]

when not one workplace has been fined for unsafe covid working practices

It irritates me so much, that they haven't made asymptomatic testing compulsory, or even advisable, for workplaces that are staying open - 'safely' or otherwise - during lockdown.

Just the usual 'please wfh if you can' & 'stay at home' whilst ignoring all the people who can't.

 

[andysays]

It irritates me so much, that they haven't made asymptomatic testing compulsory, or even advisable, for workplaces that are staying open - 'safely' or otherwise - during lockdown.

Just the usual 'please wfh if you can' & 'stay at home' whilst ignoring all the people who can't.

Asymptomatic testing has been more widely made available (although it's far from perfect anyway), but realistically it can't be made compulsory - there are various reasons why some people are reluctant to be tested and it's not something you can force on people.

But there is certainly more than can be done to enforce safer working conditions and it's telling that there appears to be no inspection of workplaces and no serious investigation carried out even in the case of high levels of workplace infection.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Today's reported figures -

First dose vaccinations now 12,646,486

New cases - 12,364, overall a drop of 26.6% in the last week.

New deaths - 1,052, which is down 397 on last Tuesday's 1,449, that brings the 7-day average down to around 835 a day, a drop of 25.7% in the last week.

Today's reported figures -

First dose vaccinations now just over 13m

New cases - 13,013, overall a drop of 27.7% in the last week.

New deaths - 1,001, which is down 321 on last Wednesday's 1,322, that brings the 7-day average down to around 787 a day, a drop of 25.9% in the last week.

 

[teuchter]

It appears that there's no longer a consistent increase in vaccinations per day - in other words it seems to be running at a steady rate rather than accelerating in output.

 

[cupid_stunt]

It appears that there's no longer a consistent increase in vaccinations per day - in other words it seems to be running at a steady rate rather than accelerating in output.

Hard to tell, not every nation are reporting figures daily, and the weather will have had some impact over the last few days, certainly a load of new jab centres opened this week, so hopefully numbers will start increasing again.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Johnson is to lead the Downing Street press conference today at 5pm, with Vallance.

 

[platinumsage]

I think restrictions in supply mean they will just about hit the 15 Feb target for vaccinating over 70s, or overshoot by a day or two. I wouldn't expect the 7-day rolling average to increase much more until March when supply should begin to increase.

 

[Wilf]

It appears that there's no longer a consistent increase in vaccinations per day - in other words it seems to be running at a steady rate rather than accelerating in output.

I imagine the figures for first vaccinations may still be on an upward trend as we move into the straight age groups (larger numbers, mainly car owners, using electronic booking). But then the need for the second dose will probably serve to slow the rate when get to the 11/12 week point.

Are all of the venues for vaccination up and running now, do your know?

 

[IC3D]

My Romanian freind has said they are going to except vaccine passports from UK just coming back will be a hit
With vaccine uptake amoungst black British around 2% atm we would be looking at a divided society if they want vaccine passports here

 

[Pickman's model]

My Romanian freind has said they are going to except vaccine passports from UK just coming back will be a hit
With vaccine uptake amoungst black British around 2% atm we would be looking at a divided society if they want vaccine passports here

Not sure how VP would work with varying vaccines having differing protection against the range of variants. My total protection in the uk today may be meaningless in France next week

 

[IC3D]

Not sure how VP would work with varying vaccines having differing protection against the range of variants. My total protection in the uk today may be meaningless in France next week

Every country is making up its own rules arnt they. I imagine many countries have nothing in place. Moldova are using less sick covid patients to care for the worse ones as PPE is so lacking

 

[LDC]

Not sure how VP would work with varying vaccines having differing protection against the range of variants. My total protection in the uk today may be meaningless in France next week

They'd just have a list of approved vaccines I'd imagine. I think we are now highly likely to see some proof of vaccination needed for some international travel. The UK government can decide whatever it wants about them, but if another country demands proof for entry that'll be what visitors have to go with. I don't think we'll see that kind of thing for anything within the UK still though.

 

[elbows]

It appears that there's no longer a consistent increase in vaccinations per day - in other words it seems to be running at a steady rate rather than accelerating in output.

What data is that based on anyway? I ask because I dont really recognise that description of past or current trends, although the following from the UK dashboard is admittedly by report date rather than vaccination date.

 

[Ms Ordinary]

Asymptomatic testing has been more widely made available (although it's far from perfect anyway), but realistically it can't be made compulsory - there are various reasons why some people are reluctant to be tested and it's not something you can force on people.

But there is certainly more than can be done to enforce safer working conditions and it's telling that there appears to be no inspection of workplaces and no serious investigation carried out even in the case of high levels of workplace infection.

You are right, of course, that forcing compulsory testing on people who are just trying to live (not travel, not take unnecessary risks beyond needing to earn a living) would be wrong.

I guess I'd at least like to see a message to employers that they should encourage & support asymptomatic testing (and self-isolation if that resulted) if they are also requiring people to come in to work for them.

I'd hazard a guess that take-up of asymptomatic testing is relatively amongst people who are already wfh, but low amongst anyone who can't afford* to take ten days off work if they get a positive result. (*afford - not just financially, but in terms of ongoing employment.)

But I do take comfort from it being pointed out (can't recall who by) that enough workplaces have closed, to make this lockdown relatively successful - & likewise, I guess 'enough' people in each area are getting asymptomatic testing to flag up general increases.

 

[teuchter]

What data is that based on anyway? I ask because I dont really recognise that description of past or current trends, although the following from the UK dashboard is admittedly by report date rather than vaccination date.

View attachment 253669

I suppose I would be looking at the 7-day average line on that graph. But it could well be that the next three day's numbers change that.

 

[StoneRoad]

There appears to be a weekly cycle in the vaccination numbers, with the "Sunday" total a low and a peak on "Saturday" (assuming the reports are for the day before the report is made.

The weekly average is running at around 2.5 million ...

I'm of the opinion that weather and vaccine supplies permitting the UK's NHS will achieve their 15 million first jabs by 15th February target.
Whether that total is 100% of the top four cohorts, or includes a few people from lower groups is largely unimportant.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Good to see the WHO has come out in support of the Oxford vaccine for the over 65's, and has now confirmed a gap of between 8 & 12 weeks between doses is best.

The scientific advisers also said giving two doses eight-12 weeks apart increased the vaccine's effectiveness and provided greater protection.

Initially, the WHO had recommended a gap of up to six weeks between doses, only in exceptional circumstances.

Covid: WHO backs Oxford vaccine 'even if variants present'

Its use in people over 65 as well as in countries where variants are circulating is recommended.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[andysays]

You are right, of course, that forcing compulsory testing on people who are just trying to live (not travel, not take unnecessary risks beyond needing to earn a living) would be wrong.

I guess I'd at least like to see a message to employers that they should encourage & support asymptomatic testing (and self-isolation if that resulted) if they are also requiring people to come in to work for them.

I'd hazard a guess that take-up of asymptomatic testing is relatively amongst people who are already wfh, but low amongst anyone who can't afford* to take ten days off work if they get a positive result. (*afford - not just financially, but in terms of ongoing employment.)

But I do take comfort from it being pointed out (can't recall who by) that enough workplaces have closed, to make this lockdown relatively successful.

Agreed.

I'd just add paid self isolation to what you written.

My employer has been pretty good about sending home on full pay clinical vulnerable people who need to shield and can't work from home, encouraging people to get tested, and paying those who need to isolate as a result, but all that only applies to actual members of staff, not those working through an employment agency, which is still a significant number.

 

[andysays]

Good to see the WHO has come out in support of the Oxford vaccine for the over 65's, and has now confirmed a gap of 8 & 12 weeks between doses is best.

Covid: WHO backs Oxford vaccine 'even if variants present'

Its use in people over 65 as well as in countries where variants are circulating is recommended.

www.bbc.co.uk

Was just about to post that.

Unfortunately, the UK government seem to want to push things beyond "a gap of 8 to 12 weeks", to something like "at least 12 weeks, and probably significantly longer in many cases"

 

[Cloo]

Well, according to BBC, my local area's infection levels are almost down the the national average per 100,000. Which is something I suppose.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Was just about to post that.

Unfortunately, the UK government seem to want to push things beyond "a gap of 8 to 12 weeks", to something like "at least 12 weeks, and probably significantly longer in many cases"

Do they?

I've not seen anything about pushing it beyond 12 weeks, certainly the few people I know that got their first jab at the end of Dec., have their second appointments confirmed for early March.

 

[Badgers]

Some regional actions on the vaccine take-up disparity fears (just a couple of links I found ...)

a) Clinics urge South Asian community to take up vaccine - BBC News

b) Covid-19: Breaking down Asian vaccine myths in Lancashire - BBC News

My understanding is that counter terrorism is investigating right wing misinformation.

 

[Artaxerxes]

Was just about to post that.

Unfortunately, the UK government seem to want to push things beyond "a gap of 8 to 12 weeks", to something like "at least 12 weeks, and probably significantly longer in many cases"

The problem with serial gamblers is they never quite know when to stop.