Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[ska invita]

As someone currently under 50 years old and out of action with medium-long-covid i do think it could have a much bigger effect than the flu analogy

Also if allowed to spread that just means more mutations, more mutations means vaccines won't work, and there's a chance (what odds i don't know) the whole thing could unravel fast.

Seems like a big fight coming up

 

[existentialist]

I'd support this. A fight to the death. Last man standing wins a chicken dinner. A couple of tories are ex-SAS so it would be an interesting fight. Johnson would probably be out early thankfully but Patel could be a contender because she'd be the most evil person out there. I reckon she could be in the final 10 due to being incredibly devious.

She'd just go round puncturing insteps with a spiky heel, and pinching people in painful places to shit them up first.

 

[William of Walworth]

As someone currently under 50 years old and out of action with medium-long-covid i do think it could have a much bigger effect than the flu analogy

Also if allowed to spread that just means more mutations, more mutations means vaccines won't work, and there's a chance (what odds i don't know) the whole thing could unravel fast.

Seems like a big fight coming up

In terms of scientific validity, that's not worthy of the name of a 'fight' at all is it?

These Tories are crazy ...

 

[muscovyduck]

I think a lot of us knew something like this was coming. I know I was but I was trying not to think about it. Ugh

 

[Supine]

 

[Pickman's model]

She'd just go round puncturing insteps with a spiky heel, and pinching people in painful places to shit them up first.

 

[StoneRoad]

FFS !
Someone needs to puncture the CRG's herd immunity balloon.
Load of Tory covidiots.
[I was going to call the CRG a load of wankers, but that assumes that they could do something and bring it to a successful conclusion]

 

[chilango]

I don't know if this has been posted yet but a BMJ editorial us calling the Government response "social murder".

Covid-19: Social murder, they wrote—elected, unaccountable, and unrepentant

After two million deaths, we must have redress for mishandling the pandemic Murder is an emotive word. In law, it requires premeditation. Death must be deemed to be unlawful. How could “murder” apply to failures of a pandemic response? Perhaps it can’t, and never will, but it is worth...

www.bmj.com

 

[LDC]

I don't know if this has been posted yet but a BMJ editorial us calling the Government response "social murder".

Covid-19: Social murder, they wrote—elected, unaccountable, and unrepentant

After two million deaths, we must have redress for mishandling the pandemic Murder is an emotive word. In law, it requires premeditation. Death must be deemed to be unlawful. How could “murder” apply to failures of a pandemic response? Perhaps it can’t, and never will, but it is worth...

www.bmj.com

It was covered on the BBC news last few days that 6 out of every 10 deaths from covid were people with disabilities. Shocking statistic.

Covid: Disabled people account for six in 10 deaths in England last year - ONS

New data suggests disabled people account for nearly 60% of coronavirus deaths in England last year.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[existentialist]

It was covered on the BBC news last few days that 6 out of every 10 deaths from covid were people with disabilities. Shocking statistic.

Covid: Disabled people account for six in 10 deaths in England last year - ONS

New data suggests disabled people account for nearly 60% of coronavirus deaths in England last year.

www.bbc.co.uk

That would fit right in with the views of quite a lot of the tory party.

 

[elbows]

The scientific advisers noted that another important factor in the debate is whether the UK should ship vaccine supplies to other countries struggling to inoculate their most vulnerable populations, once all over 50s have received a jab. “If we start vaccinating the young, at that point we will be depriving other people,” said one member of SPI-M. “Global equity is going to become a bigger issue,” added Graham Medley, professor of infectious disease modelling and a member of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE). “All public health experts would like vaccination to be used to improve global health rather than focus on individual countries.”

In the last month or so I have discovered that I am much less inclined to discuss pandemic detail here unless I see a proper debate about this bit.

 

[elbows]

Seems like a big fight coming up

The shit heap that is the rebranded Brexit party would also like to make political capital out of this.

Nigel Farage's anti-lockdown party: Future force or busted flush?

Nigel Farage is hoping lockdown sceptics will rally behind Reform UK - successor to the Brexit Party.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[LDC]

The shit heap that is the rebranded Brexit party would also like to make political capital out of this.

Nigel Farage's anti-lockdown party: Future force or busted flush?

Nigel Farage is hoping lockdown sceptics will rally behind Reform UK - successor to the Brexit Party.

www.bbc.co.uk

Doesn't seem like a great long term plan to base a party on something that will (hopefully) be a non-issue in a year or so.

 

[existentialist]

Doesn't seem like a great long term plan to base a party on something that will (hopefully) be a non-issue in a year or so.

But that fits his modus operandi very well - whip up ignorant fervour about something, then make capital (politically or otherwise) on the back of it.

 

[killer b]

Doesn't seem like a great long term plan to base a party on something that will (hopefully) be a non-issue in a year or so.

It's leveraging a current issue rather than any long term strategy. Easy to shift to taking a more general libertarian / free speech angle post-pandemic, and hopefully take a lot of the lockdown sceptic types with you.

 

[LDC]

Yeah to both the above, just momentarily thought he might have some worked out political strategy rather than a continual desperate attempt to grasp attention and stir up shit.

 

[elbows]

Doesn't seem like a great long term plan to base a party on something that will (hopefully) be a non-issue in a year or so.

Well I'm not predicting massive success since I agree with this bit of a Goodwin quote in that article:

Anti-lockdown opinion is not strong enough in this country for an anti-lockdown party. The vast majority of us agree with the lockdowns.

 

[killer b]

His aim is to convert this political constituency that's been brought into view by the pandemic into an electoral force - whether that's possible remains to be seen, but I don't think you can really look at the last couple of decades of British politics and imagine Farage as a man who's long term aims haven't been achieved. Maybe it's because he got lucky rather than because he's a master strategist, but either way I wouldn't underestimate him.

 

[Monkeygrinder's Organ]

His aim is to convert this political constituency that's been brought into view by the pandemic into an electoral force - whether that's possible remains to be seen, but I don't think you can really look at the last couple of decades of British politics and imagine Farage as a man who's long term aims haven't been achieved. Maybe it's because he got lucky rather than because he's a master strategist, but either way I wouldn't underestimate him.

Yeah I agree with that.

I don't know if there's a new political constituency though is there? I think with UKIP they managed to appeal to some working class voters in neglected areas but also a lot of rather better off but furious nonetheless voters in the home counties and similar areas. My guess here is that this is more the second group just with something slightly newer to rage at.

 

[killer b]

Yeah I agree with that.

I don't know if there's a new political constituency though is there? I think with UKIP they managed to appeal to some working class voters in neglected areas but also a lot of rather better off but furious nonetheless voters in the home counties and similar areas. My guess here is that this is more the second group just with something slightly newer to rage at.

My finger in the air has a shitload of working class people - especially self employed, or small business owners / sole traders - are deep into the lockdown scepticism. At least partly because they've not been able to make a living for a year.

 

[Monkeygrinder's Organ]

working class people - especially self employed, or small business owners / sole traders

I can hear the rumble of the politics forum big beasts heading this way now.

You might be right - it is definitely finger in the air stuff. I'm thinking the sort of person who would actually identify with it enough to engage with Farage, so a level above just being sceptical, is more furious of Dorking than disillusioned red wall voter but it's pretty speculative.

 

[Brainaddict]

I can imagine farage's party swivelling to general culture war shit once the lockdown is over, battling bravely against the forces of wokeness. What an enormous turd he is, and what a sad indictment of British culture that there are so many people who've been prepared to take him seriously over the years.

 

[Wilf]

It all poses the question of 'where's Labour', or even more so, where's the left? The populist right is much better placed to have some kind of post-pandemic dialogue with parts of the working class than Labour are.

 

[Spandex]

It all poses the question of 'where's Labour',

Busy purging the left.

even more so, where's the left?

The Labour left are busy being purged.

The conspriracist left is busy on Facebook moaning about masks, lockdown and vaccines.

The rest of the left are busy asking each other where now for the left?

Meanwhile, the working class are busy working to keep the middle class happy while they're in lockdown.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Today's reported figures -

First dose vaccinations now just over 13.5m

New cases - 13,494 from over 760k tests yesterday, overall a drop of 28.6% in the last week.

New deaths - 678, which is down 237 on last Thursday's 915, that brings the 7-day average down to around 754 a day, a drop of 25.9% in the last week.

Today's reported figures -

First dose vaccinations now just over 14m

New cases - 15,144, overall a drop of 26.3% in the last week.

New deaths - 758, which is down 283 on last Friday's 1041, that brings the 7-day average down to around 714 a day, a drop of 27.1% in the last week.

Long way to go still, but everything is moving in the right direction.

 

[Monkeygrinder's Organ]

Something that's confusing me a little about the stats:

They're reporting today that the R number is below 1 for the first time since July. As I understand it R>1, numbers go up, R<1, numbers go down. However numbers seem to have been falling for the last few weeks, so I'm curious as to how that aligns with R only now being below 1? Just a lag in different numbers being used for calculations? The confidence interval? Or my simple understanding above isn't right?

 

[elbows]

Something that's confusing me a little about the stats:

They're reporting today that the R number is below 1 for the first time since July. As I understand it R>1, numbers go up, R<1, numbers go down. However numbers seem to have been falling for the last few weeks, so I'm curious as to how that aligns with R only now being below 1? Just a lag in different numbers being used for calculations? The confidence interval? Or my simple understanding above isn't right?

Combination of the nature of their estimates involving ranges, and certain surveillance methods being rather laggy, and a deliberate degree of caution about how and when the peak and what came next has been reported. For example many of todays headlines about cases falling are based on the ONS infection survey, which was even more laggy than I had expected it would be at detecting consistent falls in the level of community infections once we were past the peak. If we rely on the number of positive tests via the standard testing system, cases have been falling for a month, but I dont think the ONS study was confident about that till a week ago.

The BBC have a graphic which probably shows the R range stuff quite well.


From Covid: Virus cases are going down across the UK

 

[editor]

A break of sunlight in the gloom

The reproduction number, or R value, of coronavirus has fallen below one for the first time since July and is estimated to be between 0.7 and 0.9 across the UK.

In a sign that lockdown restrictions may be having an impact and the epidemic is shrinking, scientists advising the government gave their most optimistic outlook for the R number since cases fell last summer.

The estimates for R and the growth rate are provided by the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage). The growth rate, which estimates how quickly the number of infections is changing day by day, is between -5% and -2% for the UK as a whole.

Coronavirus R number falls below 1 in UK for first time since July

Reproduction number estimated to be between 0.7 and 0.9, suggesting epidemic is shrinking

www.theguardian.com

 

[elbows]

The other thing I'd say is that I dont find their R estimates to be a very impressive guide as to quite how bad people should have expected things to get. Especially if people look at those numbers without considering the existing level of infection at that stage.

For example the R estimates in that BBC graph for December and January dont look as scary as the September ones. But the September-October rates lead to deaths in the 400-500 per day range in November->mid December. The later rise lead to well over 1000 deaths per day for a large chunk of January. Presumably this is not because their R estimates were total shit, but rather because the impact of R depends on a combination of R and the levels of infection already present - the later part of the wave was growing from an already high starting point, so we had a very nasty peak indeed.

 

[elbows]

Daily hospital admissions/diagnoses for England are back to the same sort of level that things peaked at during the November 'not a very impressive lockdown because schools etc are open' measures. I will make happier noises if they come down a lot more in future.


Using data from Statistics » COVID-19 Hospital Activity